10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Thursday, August 2nd
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Thursday, August 2nd.
Thursday, August 2nd
1. In his last start, Max Scherzer notched double-digit strikeouts for the 75th time in his career, moving him up to eighth on the all-time list of games of 10+ strikeouts (he’ll be there fore a while, as Steve Carlton ranks seventh with 84 such games). In the five games prior to that start, his 20.9 percent strikeout rate was the lowest of any five-game stretch since 2014. When most were ready to fade his price tag, he reminded everyone of his upside against a pesky Marlins team that had given him fits all year. On Thursday, he’s up against another team that, in theory, should lower his strikeout upside. The Reds strike out just 21.2 percent of the time against righties this year (10th-best in MLB), but even so, Max is the top cash game arm on the slate, provided enough value opens up in order to make his $13,000 tag at DraftKings doable.
2. Over his last three games, Zack Greinke has struck out 26 batters…and walked just one. But perhaps even more encouraging is the 28.9 percent hard-hit rate over this recent stretch. Greinke has struggled with contact management over the past few seasons, and while a three-game stretch does not necessarily mean he’s “solved” the issue, it certainly makes his $11,200 price tag at DraftKings more palatable. Greinke has the top matchup of any of the three aces on Thursday’s slate (Kershaw against the Brewers being the third ace), as the Giants rank in the bottom third of MLB in strikeout rate (23.8%), wOBA (.308), and ISO (.143) against right-handed pitching this year. Greinke makes for a fine cash game option if you can’t get up to Scherzer at the high end.
3. Among pitchers on this slate (excluding Robbie Erlin, who has pitched out of the pen), the leader in SIERA in the month of July is not Max Scherzer, or Clayton Kershaw, or the red-hot Zack Greinke. It’s Nick Pivetta, with an impressive 2.74 mark that stands in stark contrast to his 5.40 ERA. While it’s easy to shout REGRESSION, roster Pivetta everywhere, and wait for another 12-strikeout game (as he had in his previous start), the truth is Pivetta is at least somewhat responsible for the runs he’s allowed. He’s left way too many pitches over the heart of the plate, resulting in at least 40 percent hard hits in five of his last six starts. All that said, he’s in a pristine matchup against the Marlins (.300 wOBA against RHPs, ranked 27th in MLB), and he does have a ton of upside given his affordable $8,500 tag at DraftKings. He’s always better as a GPP play, but if he can limit the hard hits – something that should be manageable in this matchup – he could end keep pace with the high-end arms on the slate at a much lower salary.
4. Among the 93 pitchers with enough innings to qualify against lefties this year, here’s how Tyler Mahle ranks in some DFS-relevant stats:
-93rd in wOBA allowed (.414)
-91st in hard hits (45.0%)
-93rd in slugging allowed (.580)
-93rd in HR/9 (2.66)
-87th in fly ball rate (46.9%)
Put another way, Mahle has allowed lefties to hit .292/.405/.580 against him this year; there are only three hitters in MLB who can match that slash line for the full season: Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Jose Ramirez. On Thursday, Mahle is in a nightmare matchup against a Nationals team that will be almost entirely left-handed. While the bats in Texas will be highly owned (and for good reason), I have just as much interest in stacking Nationals lefties against Mahle and the Reds’ terrible bullpen (4.10 SIERA, sixth-worst in MLB).
5. Only two players in MLB have a .480 wOBA and 4+ steals since the All-Star Break: Mike Trout (no surprise there) and Rougned Odor. Odor is one of the top overall plays of the day, as he should be batting high in the order against Andrew Cashner in the Texas heat. If you’re playing on FanDuel, there’s no excuse to fade Rangers lefties, as they’re severley underpriced (Odor at $3,500, Choo at $2,900, Gallo at $2,700).
6. Elvis Andrus has hit safely in 15 consecutive games at home; that’s the longest active home hit streak in MLB, not to mention the longest streak by a player in Globe Life Park in Arlington since Adrian Beltre had a 15-game streak back in 2016. Andrus’s high ground ball rate and lack of power upside (53.7% GB rate, .132 ISO against RHP this year) mean Andrus is far from a core play, but he’s just $4,300 at DraftKings on a slate that will be tough at the shortstop position. At the very least, he’s a worthwhile part of Rangers stacks with a bit of stolen base upside, assuming he maintains his spot high in the Texas batting order.
7. Speaking of hit streaks, Adam Jones is riding an 11-game hitting streak, the second-longest active streak in the majors (trailing Andrus’s 12 games), in which he’s slashing .386/.438/.523. Jones should benefit from the same excellent hitting environment as the Texas bats today, but his $4,500 price tag at an outfield position that should be loaded with value, Jones is a tough pill to swallow. The game theory angle is that he should draw far lower ownership than several other outfielders in his general price range (Choo, Gallo, Ronald Acuna), which I makes him a viable, if unexciting, pivot in tournaments.
8. Since 2016, no hitter in MLB has accrued more home runs in the month of August than Brian Dozier, with 24. Dozier opened his Dodgers career with a bang on Wednesday night, homering and doubling in his Los Angeles debut. Dozier hasn’t been the same hitter in 2018 that he’s been in years past, but now that he’s slotted in the middle of a much more potent lineup, there’s still time to turn things around. At just $3,900 at DraftKings, he’s an excellent point-per-dollar play at the second base position, even in a tough matchup with Brewers right-hander Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin’s .241 wOBA allowed to righties is certainly impressive, but a closer look reveals an unsustainable .219 BABIP on a high 36.2 percent hard hits. Dozier is a better hitter than Chacin is a pitcher, and the discount makes him worth the gamble.
9. Since 2016, only four players have a .320+ ISO against lefties: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Giancarlo Stanton, and Hunter Renfroe. Renfroe’s power is unquestioned, and against Cubs left-hander Mike Montgomery and his 12.8 percent strikeout rate against righties, Renfroe is sure to make solid contact. Yes, Montgomery has a high 51.5 percent ground ball rate against righties is a bit concerning at first glance, but Renfroe is a fly-ball hitter who has actually preferred pitchers who keep the ball low in the zone. Since 2017, Renfroe has a .227 ISO against ground ball pitchers, compared to a .153 mark against fly ball pitchers. With the wind blowing slightly in at Wrigley, there’s no need to go here in cash games, but Renfroe makes for an excellent tournament one-off given is home run upside.
10. Cody Bellinger has a .369 ISO against sliders since 2017; that’s second-best in MLB behind only Jesus Aguilar (.407). This is notable because Jhoulys Chacin throws his slide piece 41.7 percent of the time, second-most in MLB. Bellinger has been a disappointment this year, but this is a slate where we’re searching for upside at affordable prices, and Bellinger is priced at just $3,900 at DraftKings and carries multi-position eligibility.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Wednesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!