10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Thursday, July 5th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Thursday, July 5th.
Thursday, July 5th
Apologies for the delayed column (this article typically is published on Wednesdays and Fridays). I was at a Fourth of July parade and family gathering yesterday, so I wasn’t able to post (sadly, since today’s slate is so gross). Hope everyone had a great Independence Day, and I hope everyone who (like me) stacked Rockies yesterday is able to right the ship today. Without further ado…
1. Justin Verlander has been scuffling a bit lately, culminating in his worst outing of the year in his last start, when he lasted just five innings against the Rays, surrendering a season-high five earned runs in the process. But let’s not freak out just yet: in that start, Verlander was saddled with a .563 BABIP on just 31.3 percent hard hits. Prior to that start, his season-high BABIP was .333. On Thursday, Verlander has one of the best matchups imaginable, as he’s at home against a White Sox unit that strikes out 25 percent of the time against righties, fifth-highest in MLB. And besides all that…there’s just nobody else on Thursday’s slate worth playing. This might be the largest gap we’ve seen between the top pitcher and the rest of the field, which makes Verlander an absolute lock in cash games and an extremely difficult fade in tournaments.
2. We all know about the Padres are a strikeout-happy team against right-handed pitching (25.8 K% vs. RHP, second-highest in MLB), but consider this: the Padres have hit just 45 home runs this year against righties, the fewest in MLB. For a bit of added context, the Dodgers have hit 47 home runs against righties since June 1st. Not surprisingly, San Diego’s .121 ISO against righties ranks dead last in MLB, a fact that forces Shelby Miller into the conversation as an SP2 to pair with Verlander. Miller has been a trainwreck since his return from the DL, posting an 11.42 ERA and allowing three long balls. But the strikeouts have been there for Miller (25.0% K rate in those two starts), and against this offense, he should be able to keep the ball in the yard. That may be enough on this slate.
3. In his last start, Max Fried tossed a gem, blanking the Cardinals over 6 2/3 frames and striking out 11 in the process. Even more impressive, it was just Fried’s 15th game in the majors. The last time an Atlanta pitcher struck out 11 and allowed zero earned in one of his first 15 games was Kevin Millwood, way back in 1998. Fried earned 36 called strikes plus whiffs in the game against a tough, righty-heavy lineup, and he’ll need to be that efficient once again in a difficult matchup with the Brewers on Thursday. Helping his cause is the fact that he throws his curveball 27.5 percent of the time, and Milwaukee has a .153 wOBA against lefty curveballs this year, ranking dead last in MLB. Fried has the second-highest swinging strike rate, the second-highest SIERA, and the second-highest ground ball on the slate. Yes, the matchup is difficult, but we’re really stretching for upside on this slate, and outside of Verlander, Fried is about all there is. He’s firmly in play for tournaments.
4. Over the past 30 days, Marco Gonzales has a 9.33 K/BB rate, which ranks third in MLB, behind only Ross Stripling and Corey Kluber. His 41.5 percent outside-the-zone swing rate is the best in baseball over that span, as well. Both of these are positives, as they illustrate that Gonzales stays in the zone, but when he does venture outside, he can still tempt hitters to chase. On Thursday, he’s in a tough matchup against the righty-heavy, contact-oriented Angels. While he would be easy to rule out on most slates, Gonzales feels a bit safer than some of the other options for Thursday, especially considering he’s actually fared better against right-handers this year. He’s posted a 22.3 percent strikeout rate against them (15.9% vs. LHB), a 3.28 FIP (4.04 vs. LHB), and a 34.4 percent hard-hit rate (40.7% vs. LHB). Again, this is not a safe play, but safe plays simply do not exist on this slate, with the exception of Verlander. Gonzales feels like one of the least likely pitchers to get shelled, which is saying something today.
5. Don’t automatically fire up Mariners lefties against Jaime Barria; Barria has dominated lefties with an elite slider that, per FanGraphs linear pitch weights, has been the eighth-most valuable in all of MLB (min. 50 IP), just below Luis Severino’s offering. Combine that slider (which lefties have slashed .107/.107/.107 against…that’s a total of three singles in 28 at-bats) with a serviceable changeup, and lefties have managed just a .264 wOBA against the Angels right-hander. He’s also struck out southpaws more frequently (23.2%, compared to 16.2% against righties) and allowed the ball to leave the yard less frequently (0.94 HR/9, compared to 2.33 HR/9 against righties). If the switch from Tyler Skaggs to Barria means righties like Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger, and Mike Zunino will have suppressed ownership, they make fantastic tournament plays against the small sample reverse splits of Barria.
6. Paul Goldschmidt has hit for a 1.000+ OPS against lefties in each of the past five seasons. Only eight other players have managed two 1.000 OPS seasons against lefties over that stretch, and only one other player (Josh Donaldson) has done it three times. And Goldy has done it five times. While the installation of the humidor does seem to have impacted his otherworldly power against lefties at home to some degree, Goldschmidt against a lefty is still one of the best spots to target in DFS. On top of that, Goldschmidt has been white hot: over the past 30 days, his MLB-high .402 average is 48 points higher than that of second-place J.D. Martinez (.354). San Diego lefty Eric Lauer has been obliterated by righties this year to the tune of a .387 wOBA and 41.6 percent hard hits. If there’s one bat to pay up for on Thursday, it’s Goldschmidt.
7. Over the last two weeks, Mike Trout’s average exit velocity is 80.6 MPH; that’s a number that ranks 222nd of 228 batters, sandwiched between Jose Iglesias and Jarrod Dyson. Obviously, Trout is one of the best hitters of all-time, and under ordinary circumstances, he would be a lock-and-load with the platoon advantage against Seattle’s Marco Gonzales. But he’s still dealing with a strained right index finger, and it seems to have sapped some of his power. Additionally, at $6,000, he’s the most expensive hitter on the slate. It’s always scary to fade Trout, he’s hitting just .163 over the last two weeks (including just two extra-base hits), and he’s gone 14 games without a multi-hit game, his longest streak since 2014. I’m content waiting it until Trout looks like Trout again, at least in cash games.
8. Over the past 30 days, Alex Bregman has 10 home runs…and just 13 strikeouts. Bregman is also riding an eight-game hitting streak in which he’s slashing (get ready) .455/.500/1.061. That’s pretty good. Bregman will have the platoon advantage against White Sox lefty Carlos Rodon, who, for all of his flaws as an overall pitcher, has never had trouble racking up strikeouts. This year, though, Rodon is whiffing just 17.3 percent of batters he faces. has historically had no trouble notching but this year, he’s whiffing just 17.3% of batters he faces. Although we prefer to stack Houston when they’re on the road (122 wRC+ away this year, 106 wRC+ at home), Rodon’s ineffectiveness makes Bregman and his fellow Houston righties some of the top targets on Thursday’s slate.
9. Prior to this year, Andrew Cashner had eight consecutive seasons of 50 percent ground balls or higher to righties; this year, he’s at 43.6 percent, which has resulted in a career-high .379 wOBA against same-handed hitters. The ground balls have disappeared, and the strikeout remain low (13.2% vs. RHB this year), meaning Brian Dozier, still affordable at just $4,200 at DraftKings, is an excellent cash game option at the second-base position.
10. If you want some serious leverage in tournaments, play Avisail Garcia against Justin Verlander at just $3,700 at DraftKings. Garcia is arguably the hottest hitter in baseball, with a crazy .621 wOBA over the past seven games, the highest of any seven-game stretch of his career. Check it out:
Going even further back, Garcia has extra-base in eight of his past nine games, including six long balls. Normally, a hitter on this much of a roll would be priced in the $5,000 range, and we’re getting him at a huge discount. If you’re fading Verlander in tournaments, Garcia makes all the sense of the world. Even if you’re playing Verlander, there’s a case to be for rostering Garcia; Verlander is so far above the other pitchers on the slate that even if he gives up a home run or two, he could still be necessary to win a GPP. It’s unorthodox, sure, but this is such an odd slate that it may warrant some outside-the-box plays.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Wednesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!