10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Tuesday, July 30th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Tuesday, July 30th.
1. Justin Verlander two most recent games have been pretty remarkable in that he’s struck out 11 and 12 batters despite only reaching six innings in each game. He’s the first pitcher to post consecutive games of 11+ Ks in 6 or fewer innings pitched since…Justin Verlander, way back in 2018. It’s a rarer feat than you might think; in addition to Verlander, only two other pitchers this century have done it in two straight games. Check it out, courtesy of Baseball Reference’s Play Index:
Now, innings matter in DFS, too, and ideally Verlander would go a bit deeper into the game. But if he’s punching out 11 or 12, we don’t care. On Tuesday, Verlander is the Astros representative in the best pitching matchup on the slate, taking on the Shane Bieber-led Indians. It’s a significant ballpark downgrade, and it’s a below average matchup (over the past 30 days, Cleveland has a .352 wOBA against righties, fourth-best in MLB, and they’ve struck out just 18.3 percent of the time). But it’s Justin Verlander, and he’s still notching strikeouts in bunches. That’s enough to make him the clear top overall pitching option on Tuesday. But if you feel like dropping down a bit…
2. Consider Noah Syndergaard in a dream matchup with the White Sox. Syndergaard has been relying more heavily on his slider in his last three starts, and it’s been one potential reason he’s seen an uptick in strikeouts over that span. Take a look:
Slider usage and K% in his first 17 starts: 10.5% sliders, 22.8% Ks
Slider usage and K% in his 3 most recent starts: 22.1% sliders, 28.7% Ks
Of course it’s not this simple; if it was, I’d be the Mets pitching coach (then again, given how far Thor, Matz, and Harvey underachieved, how much worse could I be than the actual guy? Seems like just saying, “Oh, you’re hurt? Yeah, you don’t have to pitch today,” would be an instant improvement). But Syndergaard has always gotten plenty of whiffs on his slider, so it’s good to see him using it at something close to a career norm (he’d been at 19.9% or higher in each of the previous three seasons). And then there’s the matchup. The White Sox fan at a 26 percent clip against righties (third-most in MLB), and they’ve been terrible as of late. Check out the last 8 right-handed starters they’ve faced, with the number of strikeouts the pitcher recorded in parentheses:
Kyle Gibson (9)
Michael Pineda (5)
Jose Berrios (8)
Zac Gallen (9)
Trevor Richards (7)
Brad Keller (7)
Glenn Sparkman (8)
Jakob Junis (10)
That is eye-popping. In case counting isn’t your forte, that’s 7+ strikeouts for seven of the last eight right-handers who have faced the South Siders, and the list includes a bunch of guys (with an exception or two) who are nothing special in the K department. Thor should be able to notch 8 strikeouts in his sleep in this matchup.
3. In just four starts, Jake Odorizzi has given up six home runs; he’d given up just eight in the 16 starts prior. More alarming for DFS purposes, though, is the precipitous slide in strikeouts. Check it out:
Odorizzi has never been a high-strikeout pitcher, so it’s possible (probable?) that the spike you see in the graph is a random outlier, never to return. The rise in homers plus the decrease in strikeouts is alarming, sure, but none of it matters on Tuesday because Odorizzi is #blessed with a matchup against the Miami Marlins. He’ll get a huge park upgrade to Marlins Park, and the strikeouts should be there, as Miami fans at a high 25.2 percent clip against righties. Plus, his recent struggles have led to him being an absolute bargain at FanDuel ($7,300) and Yahoo ($38), though he’s still a bit pricey at DraftKings at $9,400.
4. Let’s take a look at a similarly amazing chart, for different reasons. This one pertains to the sudden disappearance of walks issued by Yu Darvish:
After looking like a carbon copy of 2018 Tyler Chatwood for much of the early part of the year, Darvish has a 2.1% walk rate over his past four starts. Alex Chamberlain at FanGraphs attributes the positive change to more strikes on his fastball and a change in release point. Whatever the cause, Darvish looks like a different pitcher these days, and he can once again be trusted in DFS. If he can continue to limit the walks, it’ll insulate him against the occasional homer or extra-base hit, which he has been prone to. While Yahoo and DraftKings believe Darvish is back to being something like elite (he’s $52 and $9,800 at those sites, respectively), Darvish has an awesome price tag at FanDuel, where at $8,300 he’s priced just below (get ready) Mike Leake.
5. In his most recent start, Zac Gallen twirled an absolute gem against the White Sox. It was just his sixth career start, and he posted a decidedly veteran-like line of 7 innings, no earned runs, and nine strikeouts against just one walk. Only two Marlins pitchers have ever posted that line in a game within their first six career starts: Dontrelle Willis and the late Jose Fernandez. That’s pretty good company for Gallen. It’s also notable that Gallen reached 95 pitches in that game, the fifth time in his six starts that he’s exceeded 90 pitches. So, he appears to have a longer leash than many young pitchers do in 2019. Gallen is priced reasonably, but even so, he’s strictly a tournament play against a Twins team that, with an MLB-high .229 ISO against righties, is officially in the Yankees or Dodgers class as a team to avoid for DFS purposes.
6. Mike Leake is bad. I don’t care that he’s been good for his last few starts. Mike Leake is bad. I believe this. I have to believe this. And so, here are three quick reasons to load up on Rangers bats against Mike Leake, who is bad:
— Only three hitters in MLB have a .380+ wOBA and 53 percent hard hits at home this year: Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, and … Shin-Soo Choo.
— Since 2014, only four players in MLB have five 20-steal seasons: Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon, Jarrod Dyson, and … Elvis Andrus.
— Rougned Odor has 9 barrels since the All-Star break; the only players with more are Nelson Cruz (10) and Josh Donaldson (10).
7. Over the past calendar year, Ronald Acuna has 42 home runs, 36 steals, and a .303 average. Here are the three times in MLB history that a player has done that over the course of a regular season:
(If this list is any indication, we can expect Acuna to be embroiled in a steroid controversy sometime around 2027.). Acuna is on another planet right now, and he can score points in so many ways. Additionally, with so many high implied run totals on Tuesday’s slate, Acuna and the Braves, with a relatively modest 4.95 implied total, should draw little attention. He should have no trouble putting the ball in play: out of 185 pitchers with 50 innings pitched, Nationals starter Erick Fedde’s 12.6 percent K rate ranks…183rd. Even beyond Fedde, Acuna should have the advantage. The Nationals bullpen has an MLB-worst 6.07 ERA, and it’s not like it’s getting any better; it’s 5.98 since the All-Star break. Acuna checks all the boxes as an excellent under-the-radar, high-upside play for GPPs on Tuesday.
8. Edwin Encarnacion now has 30 homers for the eighth straight season, making him just the 14th player in MLB history with 8 seasons of 30 homers after his age-28 season. The guy can still get it done. And the Yankees should be able to put up plenty of runs against Dbacks right-hander Taylor Clarke. Clarke has been murdered by righties in particular this year, allowing a .394 wOBA and 2.35 home runs per nine innings. If you’re building tournament stacks, Yankees stacks (with Encarnacion being a central piece) should be near the top of the list.
9. Juan Soto is one of only five players to hit 40 home runs before turning 21. He’s very reasonably priced and faces a guy with notably wide platoon splits in Julio Teheran (career .336 wOBA). Although Teheran has shored up his lefty problem a bit this year (.304 wOBA), much of his improvement appears BABIP-driven (.291 BABIP), and he’s still allowing 42.1 percent hard hits. He’s a bit expensive at Yahoo ($19), but Soto is priced well at both DraftKings and FanDuel ($3,500 at FD; $4,300 at DK), where he represents one of the best point-per-dollar plays in the mid-range.
10. Justin Upton BABIP in 2019 is .279; prior to this season, his career BABIP stood at .327, and he had been over .300 for 10 straight seasons. And it’s not like he’s not making good contact; his 43.8 percent hard hits is tied for a career high. In other words, this is an easy, easy case for positive regression. Upton’s struggles in limited time in 2019 have led to him being priced crazy low at DraftKings in particular at just $3,600. (For context, he’s $3,700 at FanDuel, and whenever a good, proven player is less expensive at DK, it’s a buying opportunity). Best of all, Upton hits behind Mike Trout, and the Angels have a huge 6.29 implied run total against Drew VerHagen and the atrocious Tigers bullpen (5.01 ERA and 1.62 HR/9, third-highest among bullpens in MLB). He’s a near auto-play in cash games at DraftKings.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Tuesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to leave a question or comment down below!