10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Wednesday, June 26th (Main Slate)
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Wednesday, June 26th.
1. One reason Patrick Corbin has seen a dip in strikeouts since last year is that hitters aren’t as willing to chase outside the zone. Last season, Corbin led all qualified pitchers with a 38.0 chase rate; in 2019, his 33.3 percent chase rate ranks 26th among qualifiers. That’s one reason that his matchup with the Miami Marlins is so appealing, as the Marlins have the third-highest chase rate in MLB at 33.9 percent. The other reason, of course, is that the Miami Marlins are a major-league team in name only. Corbin was dominant in his May 25th start against Miami, tossing a complete game shutout, and while it’s tough to expect a repeat, it’s truly difficult to envision a bad start from Corbin. He’s the clear top pitching option on a main slate without any true aces.
2. Take a look at the top-five four-seam fastballs in MLB (min. 500 pitches thrown), with one omission:
Gerrit Cole – 17.6%
????? – 14.7%
Max Scherzer – 14.2%
Jusin Verlander – 13.6%
Jacob deGrom – 13.4%
Who’s that mystery player? It’s Twins right-hander Jake Odorizzi, who faces his old team, the Rays, in a revenge scenario on Wednesday. Odorizzi has turned a corner in a major way this season, thanks in large part to his heater, which has become an elite pitch. His 3.00 FIP is seventh-best in MLB, and while he’s certainly due for some home run regression – he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher who allows 42.2 percent hard hits, and he’s somehow carrying a 6.3% HR/FB rate – his improvements seem real based on how effective his fastball has been. His matchup has too much risk for him to be a serious cash game consideration, but for GPPs, Odorizzi has big upside at what should be reasonable ownership.
3. Speaking of elite pitches, let’s see how Charlie Morton’s curveball stands up among other major-league curveballs this year (min. 200 pitches):
xwOBA – .168 (1st)
K% – 45.0% (4th)
Horizontal Movement – 18.6 inches (1st)
SwStr% – 18.7% (7th)
It’s a thing of beauty, and, when paired with his sinker, also generates elite ground balls. In fact, Morton is the only pitcher in MLB with a 30 percent strikeout rate and a 50 percent ground ball rate in 2019. Limiting balls in play and keeping them on the ground when they do occur will be paramount against the Twins’ high-powered offense (.234 ISO vs. RHPs is best in MLB). Based on the brutal matchup, Morton is in the same GPP-only class as his counterpart, Odorizzi. As with Odorizzi, though, there is plenty of upside, and perhaps more safety than one might think given Morton’s ability to induce Ks and generate ground balls.
4. It seems like Yu Darvish isn’t walking as many batters these days. Let’s check it out:
Darvish walk rate in his first 8 starts of 2019: 19.3%
Darvish walk rate in his most recent 8 starts: 7.1%
Darvish has corrected the walk issue that was plaguing him early this season and rendering him nearly unplayable in DFS. The home runs are still an issue – he’s allowed five over his last three games – but if he’s able to manage the free passes while still racking up strikeouts (he’s at a solid 26.5 K% this year) and limiting the hard hits (he’s at 29.6%, sixth-best among qualifiers), this could be something closer to the old Yu Darvish. I feel like a broken record here, but as with Odorizzi and Morton, Darvish is in a terrible matchup on Wednesday. Against right-handed pitching, the Braves strike out at a low 21.9% clip, and they rank in the top third of MLB in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. But that price tag. Darvish is just $7,600 at DraftKings, which is a steal given his improved recent form. He’s a great option for cash games, even when factoring in the tough matchup.
5. Since last year, only one pitcher in MLB (min. 70 IP) has combined a 64 percent ground ball rate with a sub-28.0 percent hard-hit rate: Framber Valdez. He’s not devoid of strikeouts, either, as he’s posted a 26.5 percent rate in his first three games as a starter in 2019. Best of all, he faces the Pirates, who, against left-handed pitching, have been bad. Like, Marlins-level bad. They rank 28th in wOBA (.285), ISO (.136), and wRC+ (75), and they even strike out at a healthy 24.3 percent clip against southpaws. Valdez is priced low across the industry, and particularly at DraftKings, where he’s at a crazy low (and nice) $6,900. He’s extremely appealing in all formats on a weak slate for pitching.
6. Pete Alonso is just the second player in MLB history to hit 27 homers before the All-Star break in his first season (Jose Abreu hit 29 in 2014). His .362 ISO before the break ranks first in MLB history, even surpassing Abreu’s mark (.339), not to mention Cody Bellinger’s .358 ISO from his transcendent rookie campaign in 2017. Nick Pivetta has a serious home run problem, as he’s surrendered 2.15 home runs per nine innings and has allowed multiple homers in five of his nine starts. Plus, Pivetta has shown reverse splits throughout his career (.360 career wOBA and 1.91 HR/9 to righties; .325 wOBA and 1.21 HR/9 to lefties), a fact that should favor the right-handed Alonso. Everything lines up for Alonso to hit home run number 28 tonight.
7. Rhys Hoskins just continues to club homers, as well. Last night, he hit the 70th in his short career of 281 games, a feat accomplished by only 10 other players in MLB history. Here’s the full list, courtesy of Baseball Reference’s Play Index:
(And how about another Phillies’ RH-initialed first baseman, Ryan Howard, topping the list at 84?). Hoskins is one of only two big-leaguers this year with 47 percent hard hits and 50 percent fly balls, along with (of course) Joey Gallo. So, let’s do the math: he hits the ball in the air, and he hits it hard, all of which adds up to huge homer upside. In a plus matchup against the Mets’ soft-tossing lefty and aspiring pugilist Jason Vargas (Vargas threatened to “knock out” reporter Tim Healey earlier this week), Hoskins has as good a shot as anyone of hitting a dinger on Wednesday.
Brief aside to my wife Corley, who I’m assuming reads every word of my articles even though she doesn’t play DFS, and who will be in attendance at Citizens Bank Park for tonight’s Phillies/Mets game. I would like to request one Rhys Hoskins and/or Pete Alonso home run ball as a souvenir from your trip. I’d be fine with either.
8. The two names at the top of the leaderboard for hard-hit (95+ mph) are hardly surprising: Aaron Judge (61.4%) and Joey Gallo (57.9%) have been Statcast darlings for years for their ability to crush baseballs. The name in third is a bit more surprising: it’s Matt Olson, with 54.7 percent of his batted balls reaching a 95 mph exit velocity. Olson is a perpetual value play across the industry, and on Wednesday, he’s got the platoon edge against Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright. Oakland’s 4.42 implied run total isn’t impressive, but the price tags of their bats are certainly appealing (and it’s not only Olson – Khris Davis has as much home run upside as ever, and he’s $3,900 at DraftKings and $12 at Yahoo).
9. Since 2015, only four hitters in MLB have a 43.0 percent hard-hit rate to go with a .310 batting average: J.D. Martinez, Trevor Story, Paul Goldschmidt, and … Nicholas Castellanos. Castellanos has been an under-appreciated “lefty masher” for a while now, and on Wednesday, he’ll have the platoon advantage over Rangers’ lefty (and the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings in the year 2019!) Mike Minor. Minor has been effective against right-handed bats this year, yielding just a .286 wOBA. Even so, Castellanos’ suppressed price tag across the industry makes him an appealing cash game option.
10. Ryan Braun’s career numbers at home against lefties are incredible: .419 wOBA, 160 wRC+, .279 ISO, just 15.8% strikeouts. Of course, some of these numbers are inflated by the, let’s just say “questionable decisions” that Braun made early in his career. Even so, Braun is still showing plenty of pop against southpaws in 2019, with a .226 ISO. Really though, this play is all about context; he’s a power hitter with a bit of steals upside, hitting in the middle of a potent lineup, and he’s dirt cheap. While he’s a bit pricier at DraftKings ($4,500), his reasonable price tag at FanDuel ($3,000) and Yahoo ($11) make him one of the better point-per-dollar plays of the slate at those sites.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Tuesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to leave a question or comment down below!