10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NFL Notes for Week 3
This NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for Week 2.
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Week 3
1. Jay Ajayi has 18+ touches in 12 consecutive games dating back to October 16, 2016; the next-longest active streak is just four such games (Lamar Miller, Todd Gurley). Ajayi is a throwback in today’s NFL, a true workhorse back who just never leaves the field; in Week 2, he carried the ball an NFL-high 28 times and stayed on the field for 64 of Miami’s 68 snaps, racking up 122 rushing yards against the Chargers. He forced seven missed tackles in that game, more than any other running back in Week 2, which is just a continuation of what he did last year, when he was heads and shoulders above all other NFL backs with 58 forced missed tackles (for context, Le’Veon Bell came in second at 47, and the gap of 11 missed tackles between Ajayi and Bell was the same as the gap between Bell and Ezekiel Elliott, whose 36 forced missed tackles ranked 10th). With Miami favored by almost a touchdown over the Jets’ fledgling run defense (152 yards allowed to the Bills backfield in Week 1, 123 allowed to the Raiders backfield in Week 2), Ajayi figures to be massively chalky. Even so, his workload feels near guaranteed, which makes him a difficult fade, because…
2. In six career games with 20+ carries, Jay Ajayi averages 150.83 yards and 29.85 DraftKings points. He’s a back who seems to get better with more work, averaging 6.2 yards per carry for his career in the fourth quarter (he’s no higher than 4.6 yards per carry in any other quarter). Against the Jets, the Dolphins should have no trouble securing a lead, and when that happens, they’ll lean heavily on Ajayi, who should rack up yardage at will. Taking an overweight approach to Ajayi in all formats seems to be a smart move in Week 2.
3. Prior to Week 2, Le’Veon Bell had recorded 27 carries six times in his career; in those games, he averaged 37.28 DraftKings points. In Week 2, on 27 carries, Bell put up a paltry 13.1 DraftKings points (87 rushing yards, 4 receiving yards, zero TDs). That was absolutely a floor game for Bell, and in Week 3, he looks to rebound as the Steelers travel to Chicago to take on the Bears on the road. The “on the road” part could be as important, as Bell has, over his career, been much more effective away from Pittsburgh. Take a look:
| Stat | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| Yds/Car | 4.01 | 4.78 |
| Yds/Gm | 77.1 | 92.6 |
| Car/TD | 51.22 | 28.47 |
While running back home/road splits may not be a super high priority when deciding to pay top dollar for a back, it also shouldn’t be discounted. It’s difficult to know what type of a matchup this is against a Bears team that ranked 29th in run defense DVOA last year but had success against Atlanta’s dangerous combo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in Week 1, holding the pair to just 53 yards on 20 carries. But if Bell’s slow start is going to depress his ownership even slightly, he automatically becomes one of the best tournament targets on the slate.
4. The New Orleans Saints have allowed 793 passing yards in the first two games of the season, a feat that has occurred just four times in NFL history (‘62 Broncos, 2000 Rams, 2011 Panthers, 2011 Patriots). Of those four teams, none allowed six touchdowns, as the Saints have. With just three sacks on the year, New Orleans is showing no ability to pressure the quarterback, either, which should play favorably for Cam Newton, whose 20 passes under pressure rank second only to DeShone Kizer’s 22, per Player Profiler. Make no mistake: there are risks here. Newton has looked sloppy and inconsistent this year, he’s dealing with an injured shoulder and ankle, he’s missing his number one “receiver” in Greg Olsen, and he hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown or exceeded 40 rushing yards in the last seven games. But if there was ever a “get right” spot, this is it, and at an affordable $6,600 at DraftKings, he may even be cash game viable.
5. After another 10-target performance (his second of the year) in Week 2, Keenan Allen has seven games with double-digit targets since 2015, while no other Chargers player has more than five such games. Oh, and by the way, Allen has missed 23 games with injury during that stretch. His rapport with Philip Rivers can’t be understated, and while he’s not the plug-and-play he was at DraftKings last week (he’s priced fairly at $7,200 after being absurdly priced at $5,800 in Week 1), Allen still has massive upside, particularly at PPR sites. He has lined up in the slot 63% of the time this year, which means he should see a good deal of coverage from Chiefs slot corner Philip Gaines, who is Pro Football Focus’s 100th ranked cornerback of 106 qualifiers. Gaines fared no better last year, finishing the year ranked 117th of 119 qualifiers. A Rivers and Allen pairing in tournaments appears to have a nice high-floor, high-ceiling combination that shouldn’t come with massive ownership.
6. The NFL leader in evaded tackles this year among running backs is not Jay Ajayi, or Kareem Hunt, or Le’Veon Bell; it’s Seahawks rookie Chris Carson, who has an NFL-high 21 evaded tackles, per Player Profiler. With Eddie Lacy being a healthy scratch and Thomas Rawls, the nominal starter, seeing the field on just 16 snaps in Week 2 (compared to Carson’s 51), it may be time to anoint Carson as the Seahawks new feature back (and hope that he does more with the title than Christine Michael did after he was anointed around this time last year). Carson is affordable across the industry, and the Seahawks should call his number often as long as they can keep it close with the Titans. The questions about Seattle’s offensive line coupled with the short track record make Carson better suited for tournaments. But he should see minuscule ownership, making him an excellent salary saver if you’re building multiple lineups.
7. Through two games, Derek Carr has yet to throw an “interceptable pass,” per Player Profiler; he joins Alex Smith and Tom Brady as the only quarterbacks this year with 60+ pass attempts and zero interceptable passes. The reason is twofold. First, he’s simply not being pressured, ever; according to Pro Football Focus, his 14.3% pressure rate is lowest in the NFL. And second, he’s making smart, high-probability passes; again, per Pro Football Focus, he’s attempted just three passes 20+ yards downfield, and his 5.4 aDOT is second-lowest in the NFL, in front of only Joe Flacco. While this does seem to limit his upside for GPPs, it makes him an excellent cash game play, particularly in what should be a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair in Washington.
8. Demaryius Thomas has 6+ targets in 37 consecutive games dating back to 2014; that’s by far the longest active streak in the NFL (and if you want to know who owns the second-longest streak, scroll down to note #9). Thomas gets consistent volume, and he seems to be perpetually underpriced across the industry. The Bills have held the Jets and Panthers to a combined 115 rushing yards (third-best in the NFL when you rule out the Dolphins and Bucs, who’ve only played one game), making this a great funnel spot for maybe-not-as-bad-as-we-thought Trevor Semien to pepper Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders with targets. There are certainly more “optimal” plays at the position, but Thomas makes sense as a tournament option who should see super low ownership given the game’s low over/under of 40 points at time of writing.
9. In note #8, I mentioned Demaryius Thomas lapping the field with his streak of 37 straight games of 6+ targets. The player in second-place on that list is Davante Adams, who has 6+ targets in 13 consecutive games (so, it’s a distant second, but 13 straight 6+ target games is still impressive). We all know Adams can score; he had 12 touchdowns last year, and recorded his first touchdown of the year last week against the Falcons. The problem, ordinarily, is that there are too many mouths to feed in Green Bay, but with Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb both potentially out, Adams should see massively increased volume in a not-terrible matchup against the Bengals. Adams will be popular, but the market share he’ll command at a cheap price tag is just something you don’t find, making him one of the better point-per-dollar plays of the week.
10. Since 2015, eight of Drew Brees’ nine highest DraftKings point totals have come at home. He’s only exceeded 30 DraftKings points one time on the road during that span, a number that puts him behind guys like Eli Manning (two games of 30+ DK points on the road since 2015), Colin Kaepernick (two such games), and Blake Bortles (four such games). On the road and facing a Carolina defense that has allowed a total of six points through two games (okay, it’s the 49ers and Bills, but still…), Brees and the rest of the Saints offense looks like a stay-away for Week 3.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, Player Profiler, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and Pro Football Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NFL articles throughout this football season, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!