10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NFL Notes for Week 8
This NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for Week 8.
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Week 8
1. Carson Wentz has been insanely efficient over the last three games, tossing at least three touchdown passes on 30 or fewer attempts in all three contests. Only three other times since 2000 has a QB thrown for 3+ scores on 30 or fewer attempts in three straight games (Rodgers did it in four straight in 2011, Peyton Manning did it in four straight in 2004, Russell Wilson in 2015). You could say he’s due for some negative touchdown variance, and you’d probably be right. But I’m willing to bet that Wentz can stave off regression for one more week. In Week 8, he’s a big favorite at home against a Niners team that ranks 29th in DVOA against the pass. The lack of value at DraftKings this week makes him more of a tournament target, but if value opens up, Wentz should have no trouble paying off his not unreasonable $7,200 tag. One other quick note on Wentz: his underrated rushing ability gives him a rare floor, as he’s one of three QBs (joining Cam Newton and Andrew Luck) to rush for 346 yards in addition to throwing for 5,600 yards his first 23 games as a pro.
2. Since 2016, Tyrod Taylor is responsible for one out of every three games of 50+ yards rushing by a QB at home (Taylor has four such games; rest of the NFL has eight). Despite the $900 price increase at DraftKings, Taylor’s legs increase the chance of his reaching value on his still-modest $5,900 price tag at DraftKings. In Week 8, he finds himself in a prime matchup against the Oakland Raiders, the only NFL team yet to intercept a pass, and whose 109.0 passer rating allowed to opposing signal callers is the highest in the NFL. Taylor’s lack of weapons means the upside is limited, but at home (where he’s averaged 20.6 DraftKings points since 2016, compared to 14.6 on the road), he’s a strong cash game option at QB.
3. Melvin Gordon has 43 targets in the first seven weeks of the season; LaDainian Tomlinson only had 43 targets in Weeks 1-7 in one season in his career (2006). Now, let’s be real. Is Melvin Gordon in the same galaxy as LT, from a purely talent standpoint? Maybe not. But the workload is truly elite and truly dependable; even against the Broncos’ elite run-stopping unit (ranked #1 in run defense DVOA at Football Outsiders), San Diego was willing to give him 19 touches. More than likely, that number represents close to his floor. While the same number against the Patriots would be a disappointment, he’d be able to do more with them: New England is allowing 67.7 yards per game through the air to running backs, second-most in the NFL. At $8,100 at DraftKings, Gordon is a priority cash game play with massive upside for tournaments, as well.
4. In Week 7, Ezekiel Elliott ran all over the 49ers, racking up 219 total yards and finding the end zone three times. It was his seventh multi-TD game, which ties him for most such games in his first 21 games as a pro (with Marcus Allen, Eric Dickerson, Arian Foster, Bill Groman, Edgerrin James). The Cowboys are apparently going full YOLO with Elliott, as evidenced by his notching 25 touches in five of six games played this year; it’s anyone’s guess how long he can hold off his suspension, and Dallas will likely give him all the work he can handle as long as he’s on the field. Ranked #10 in the NFL in run defense DVOA, Washington has been a tough test for running backs this year. But it probably doesn’t matter for Elliott, given the immense talent and workload. Like Gordon, one of the goals of the week should be fitting him in; the only question is it enough value emerges to make that happen in cash games.
5. Jordan Howard has carried the ball 139 times and is averaging 4.00 yards per carry; not since Raymont Harris in 1997 has another Bears running back carried the ball 139 times and averaged 4.00+ YPC in Weeks 1-7. The Bears are doing their best to hide Mitchell Trubisky, who had a laughable seven attempts last week (you know it’s laughable because I had to write out the word “seven” since it’s below 10…writing joke, anyone?). For context, there were 33 individual drives in which a QB threw more than seven times last week alone. Make no mistake: the game script for Howard is terrible; he’s a road underdog, and he rarely catches passes out of the backfield. But Chicago’s heavy reliance on him makes him a pivot worth considering, especially against a Saints defensive unit that ranks 29th in run defense DVOA.
6. The Colts have allowed 40 pass plays of 20+ yards this year; no other team has allowed more than 30. This sets up nicely for Andy Dalton, who, because if his $5,700 price tag at DraftKings could make him a popular cash game option at QB. I’m more interested AJ Green, though, whose 404 receiving yards since Bill Lazor became Cincinnati’s offensive coordinator is fourth-best in the NFL. He’s pricey, which means he’s more of a tournament play, but he’s an elite tournament option. Or, if you want a super cheap stack, try pairing Dalton with…
7. Brandon LaFell, who, per Player Profiler, has a higher red zone target share than any wide receiver in the NFL, and that includes Dez Bryant (40.0%) and DeAndre Hopkins (36.4%), who rank second and third, respectively. Look – nobody is going to be excited to roster LaFell, but it’s worth noting that the Colts rank 28th in DVOA against #2 receiver. LaFell represents a bit of hard-to-find value on a tight week for pricing.
8. Only three receivers this year have 366 yards and five TDs: DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Hogan, and Nelson Agholor. Agholor hasn’t exactly been a target monster, with a 15.3% target share that ranks behind guys like Kenny Stills (16.3%) and Marquise Goodwin (15.6%). Even so, he’s produced when he’s been targeted, posting four games of 14.5+ DraftKings points (tied with seven players for second-most in the NFL). And furthermore, he’s making his QB look good: when targeting Agholor, Carson Wentz has a 142.4 QB rating, which is the second-highest mark any QB has when throwing to any receiver. Best of all, the 49ers rank #1 in DVOA against the tight end, which could funnel targets towards the Eagles’ receivers (also making Alshon Jeffery an elite play). Agholor’s ceiling may not blow you away, but he’s a high-floor, reasonably priced play for cash games, something that’s hard to find this week.
9. Devin Funchess has eight targets in five straight games; only Mike Evans (6) and Antonio Brown (7) have longer active streaks. During that stretch, he’s tied with Larry Fitzgerald for sixth in the NFL in targets among wideouts, trailing only Antonio Brown, Jarvis Landry, Adam Thielen, Pierre Garcon, and Mike Evans. Tampa Bay is a true funnel defense, ranking dead last in pass defense DVOA and a much more palatable 17th against the run. In other words, while Funchess lacks after-the-catch explosiveness to make him viable in most matchups, he (like the other Panthers pass catchers) sees a nice boost in upside in this cake matchup.
10. Hunter Henry has nine catches of 15 yards or more; that’s more than Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant, Tyreek Hill, Zach Ertz. He’s not a bargain anymore, with a $4,800 price tag at DraftKings. But against the Patriots, who rank 29th in DVOA against the tight end position, Henry is an good bet for a touchdown, making him an elite option in all formats.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, Player Profiler, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and Pro Football Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NFL articles throughout this football season, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!