10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NFL Notes for Week 9
This NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for Week 9.
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Week 9
1. Drew Brees completes an NFL-high 76.8% of his passes when kept clean, per Pro Football Focus; his opponent on Sunday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are the only team in the NFL in single digits in sacks. In fact, they’re the first team since 2014 with seven or fewer sacks in Weeks 1-8 of a season. Brees has been known for his pinpoint accuracy throughout his career, and in a game where he should have as much time as he needs to throw, Brees has one of the highest floors (if not the highest floor) at the QB position this week. With Deshaun Watson injury (which, by the way, is an absolute shame), Brees figures to be a bit more popular on this slate, at least in tournaments. And while there’s a chance the Saints get out to a quick lead and rely on the run (see note #3), this is as much of a can’t-miss matchup as he’ll have this year.
2. Dak Prescott has nine games of 18+ DraftKings points at home since 2016, tied with LeSean McCoy for the most in the NFL. On Sunday, Prescott and the Cowboys host the Chiefs, who rank 20th in pass defense DVOA and represent an interesting matchup for Prescott. Per PFF, the Chiefs run the most man coverage on defense in the NFL, and it’s not close. As of Week 6, Kansas City had been in man coverage 63.5% of the time this year, when no other team eclipsed 50.0%. As teams who run man coverage tend to give up more running plays to quarterbacks, Prescott’s rushing projection should increase in the matchup. Furthermore, he’s affordable; while Watson is as expensive as he’s been all year, Prescott’s price dropped $600 as a result of his poor performance in a bad weather game. Pairing Prescott with Dez Bryant ($6,400 at DK) will only set you back $13,100, while the combo of Watson and DeAndre Hopkins ($9,200) will cost you $17,300; that $4,200 savings is the difference between Frank Gore ($3,900) and Todd Gurley ($8,100), or between Mike Wallace ($3,600) and Julio Jones ($7,800).
3. Mark Ingram has 24+ carries and 5+ targets in three consecutive games. During Sean Payton’s tenure in New Orleans (2006-2017), no running back has ever matched those numbers in three straight. In fact, dating back to last season, only three other running backs in the entire NFL have had three-game streaks of 24+ carries and 5+ targets: Le’Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, and David Johnson. The 2017 version of the Saints seems content to pound the ball with Ingram and Alvin Kamara, and at 5-2 and leading the NFC South, they’ve got no incentive to shift game plan. If Ingram’s current workload is going to continue, he’s not far off from those three all-purpose backs, but the difference is that Ingram’s price hasn’t reached “difficult-to-fit-in-for-cash-games” levels yet (for context, at $7,600, he’s $1,000 cheaper at DK than Kareem Hunt, who he’s outscored each of the last three weeks). And if you need more proof that the Saints’ run-first approach in 2017 is real, consider this: through seven games, Drew Brees has already had three games of 30 passes or fewer; he only posted 30 or fewer attempts once in 2014, 2015, and 2016. In Week 9, Ingram is in an excellent matchup as a home favorite against the Bucs, who rank 20th in run defense DVOA.
4. Lamar Miller has 14 or more carries in 14 consecutive games, tied with Ezekiel Elliott for longest streak since 2016. Miller’s ceiling always feels a bit capped – even with two scores, he managed only 22.3 DraftKings points last week. But in Week 9, all the contextual factors are in Miller’s favor: he’s playing at home, his team is favored by nearly two touchdowns, his opponent has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs, his team has the highest implied total of the week…it’s all there. While each of these make Miller a solid cash game play (especially at his reasonable $6,200 price point at DraftKings), given his likely high ownership, I’ll be looking elsewhere for upside in tournaments.
5. Take a look at the total targets this year of a few notable “all-purpose” backs:
Melvin Gordon – 45
Le’Veon Bell – 45
LeSean McCoy – 46
??? – 46
So, who’s the mystery player? It may surprise you to learn that it’s Carlos Hyde. Hyde isn’t frequently mentioned in the same conversation as guys like Bell, Gordon, and McCoy, but he’s been a massive part of San Francisco’s (admittedly horrendous) passing attack. As a home underdog and with a QB situation that remains in flux, it’s likely that San Francisco tries to keep this game on the ground, which could lead to serious volume for Hyde. Best of all, for a running back who is involved in the passing game, Hyde has an awesome price tag at DraftKings ($5,200). It’s tough to envision him falling short of reaching value, even in a less-than-ideal matchup (Arizona ranks 12th in run defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders).
6. Since 2016, there have been 28 total games of 100+ yards and 2+ touchdowns by a running back; the San Francisco 49ers’ horrendous run defense has allowed eight of those 28 games (28.6%). Unlike Hyde, Arizona’s Adrian Peterson will have almost no involvement in the passing game, which makes him a tough sell at PPR sites like DraftKings. To reach value, he’ll have to get it done on the ground, and he’ll almost certainly have to score at least one touchdown. But the Cardinals, like the 49ers, have a shaky enough QB situation that it’s likely they’ll rely heavily on Peterson, making 20+ carries a realistic possibility. Peterson is one of many mid-range running backs (Hyde, Christian McCaffrey, Alfred Morris, Joe Mixon to name a few more) who are viable plays in Week 9.
7. DeSean Jackson has played seven games in a dome in his career, and in those games, he’s averaged 96 yards per game. In games outdoors, he’s averaged just 66 yards per game. While splits like that can tend to get overblown (especially when you’re dealing with a seven-game sample taken over a number of years), it makes sense: Jackson has always been a burner, and his game has always hinged on the deep ball. While Jackson has gotten steadier volume this year (no fewer than six targets in any game this year), he’s still a deep threat, ranking third in the NFL with 946 air yards behind only Antonio Brown and Alshon Jeffery. His season has been underwhelming so far, but if ever there was a game for DeSean to catch a deep pass or two, this is it. There’s a decent chance the Saints take a lead, and if Jackson can get by the stout coverage of Ken Crawley and/or Marshon Lattimore, he could make the splash play that’s eluded him this year. While Jackson is always more of a GPP play, he’s not the worst cash game play in the world given his reasonable $5,500 tag at DraftKings.
8. Jimmy Graham has an NFL-leading nine targets inside the 10 yard line; last year, he had two targets inside the 10, which was tied for 133rd-best in the NFL. Going even further back, Graham had just three targets inside the 10 in 2015. Clearly, Russell Wilson is making a concerted effort to feed Graham near the goal line, and in Week 9, Graham is a solid bet for a score. He faces the Redskins, who rank 28th in DVOA against the tight end position and allow more yards per game (80.2) than any other team in the NFL.
9. Since 2016, Jordan Reed has missed five games. Take a look at Vernon Davis snap shares and DraftKings point totals in each of those five games (in descending chronological order):
82.4% – 16.8 DK points
95.5% – 2.3 DK points
98.3% – 9.7 DK points
97.3% – 13.9 DK points
97.3% – 13.0 DK points
Davis almost never leaves the field when Reed is out (as he’s expected to be in Week 9), and in these games, he’s been fairly productive (with one obvious exception). While Davis may not have the desired ceiling for GPPs, he can be relied on in cash games at his reasonable DraftKings salary of $4,100. Make no mistake: the matchup is bad, as he’ll be taking on the Seahawks, who rank first in DVOA against the tight end. But the volume should be there, and if you’re having a hard time getting to Graham ($900 really can matter that much at DK these days), Davis is a suitable alternative.
10. Against the Broncos, opposing teams’ top tight ends have totaled 37 catches for 487 yards and four touchdowns this year. Only three single tight ends have matched those numbers for the year; those tight ends are Zach Ertz, Rob Gronkowski, and Travis Kelce. Denver’s defense is still elite, but they’ve been getting torched by tight ends, ranking 27th in DVOA and allowing 17.6 DK points per game to the position, third-most in the NFL (and by the way, the only teams they trail are two teams we’ve been picking on with tight ends for years: the Browns and Giants). It could certainly be a profitable move to pay up to be contrarian this week by targeting Zach Ertz, who, per Scott Barrett at PFF, has at least 80 yards or a touchdown in 12 of his last 13 games.
And a few extra stats I dug up later in the week…
— T.Y. Hilton’s two largest career DraftKings point totals have come at Houston, where he plays on Sunday. In 2014, he put up 40.3 DK points (9 catches, 223 yards, 1 TD), and back in 2013, he put up 40.1 points (7 catches, 121 yards, 3 TDs). At just $4,900 at DK, there’s almost no way to get away from him in cash games.
— Andy Dalton has been sacked on 26.2% of dropbacks this year, most in the NFL; the Jacksonville Jaguars have an NFL-high 33 sacks, six more than the second-place Panthers. The Jags also just added Marcel Dareus, who should have a big impact on the run game and also has 35 sacks since 2011, fifth-most among defensive tackles during that stretch. There are lots of viable low- to mid-priced options at D/ST this week (Eagles, Saints, Colts, Rams, to name a few). I’m really liking the idea of paying up to be contrarian on defense for tournaments.
— Through eight career games, Kareem Hunt has carried the ball 146 times, and he’s averaging 5.2 yards per carry; the only other back to match those numbers in his first eight games was Adrian Peterson in 2007.
— Hunt has also evaded 74 evaded tackles this year per PlayerProfiler.com; that’s 28 more than second-place Le’Veon Bell. Dallas ranks 30th in Football Outsiders’ second-level yards metric (yardage gained by opposing backs between 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage). This could be the week that Hunt’s negative touchdown variance comes to an end.
— Among tight ends with at least 55 targets this year, here are the contested catch rates, per PlayerProfiler.com:
Rob Gronkowski: 30.8%
Travis Kelce: 37.5%
Zach Ertz: 71.4%
As with the Jaguars defense, very few are going to make their way all the way up to Ertz, making him an awesome tournament play this week.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, Player Profiler, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and Pro Football Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NFL articles throughout this football season, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!