10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes for NFL Week 11
Each week during the NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between. I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for NFL Week 11.
1. Since 2014, Ben Roethlisberger has nine home games of 30+ DraftKings. That’s more than any other QB at home during that span, by a lot (Tom Brady and Drew Brees are tied for second with six such games). During that same span, he’s exceeded 30 DraftKings points in exactly one road game. Plus, he’s thrown at least one interception in every road game dating back to the beginning of 2015. That’s a streak of 10 straight games of throwing a pick on the road, a number that dwarfs all other active streaks (Philip Rivers is next, with three games). Of course, Roethlisberger’s road woes may be negated in Week 11, as he takes on a Browns team that has allowed a league-worst 25 passing touchdowns; only five defenses in NFL history have allowed more passing scores through the first 10 weeks of the season.
Update: With near 30 mph winds expected in Cleveland, I expect the Steelers/Browns game to be much more low scoring than anticipated at time of writing. I’ll have zero exposure to Roethlisberger this week, and minimal exposure to Antonio Brown.
2. Two of Antonio Brown’s top six career games, in terms of DraftKings points, came in his last two games against his Week 11 opponent, the Cleveland Browns (40.9 DK points on Nov. 15, 2015 and 39.7 DK points on Jan. 3, 2016). You have to go all the way back to 2010 (before DraftKings even existed) to find a receiver who put up more DK points on the Browns than either of Antonio Brown’s last two performances (Anquan Boldin put up 43.0 on Sept. 26, 2010, and Terrell Owens scored 41.2 on 10/3/2010).
3. The Detroit Lions are allowing opponents to complete a league-high 74.1 percent of passes; that’s no surprise. A bit more surprising, though, is that if that number were to hold, it would be the highest completion percentage allowed by any defense in NFL history. Detroit has allowed the last six quarterbacks it’s faced (Brian Hoyer, Carson Wentz, Case Keenum, Kirk Cousins, Brock Osweiler) to put up either their best or second-best completion percentage of the season.
4. All of this bodes well for Blake Bortles, who leads the NFL in attempts, completions, and is tied for third in passing TDs over the past three weeks. As a bonus, he ranks fourth in rushing yards (87) over that stretch.
5. On the other side of the same game, since the start of 2015, Matthew Stafford has thrown 39 TD passes in the red zone…and zero interceptions. His 69.3 percent completion percentage is second only to Drew Brees (70.1 percent) among QBs with more than 10 red zone attempts. His 118.7 QB rating is tops, as well. Jacksonville allows 3.67 red zone attempts per game, fifth-most in the NFL, according to RotoGrinders’ Offense vs. Defense tool.
6. Ten weeks into the 2015 season, LeGarrette Blount has 11 red zone TDs in 37 attempts. Last year’s league leaders in red zone touchdowns, Devonta Freeman and Cam Newton, each had 10 red zone scores all year. Going further back to 2014, DeMarco Murray and Marshawn Lynch led the NFL with 12 red zone touchdowns each. If you expect the Patriots to get out ahead of the 49ers (and you should, as the Pats are favored by nearly two touchdowns), Blount should see high volume inside the 20, and if he does, look out: in eight games as a Patriot with 20+ carries, Blount has scored 12 touchdowns, including seven scores in his last three such games.
7. After being targeted inside the 20 three more times in Week 10, Jordy Nelson now has 22 red zone targets. He’s leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the league, with five more than next-highest players, Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Gates, and Brandon Marshall (17 red zone targets each). The five targets that separate Nelson from those players is the same distance that separates them from Mohamad Sanu, who ranks 17th in the NFL with 12 red zone targets. Nelson has had multiple red zone looks in eight of Packers’ nine games this season. He’ll likely see some Josh Norman coverage, but Pro Football Focus does not project Norman to be shadowing Nelson, and there’s a good chance that in Week 11, he finds the end zone for the fourth straight game.
8. DeMarco Murray has 14 red zone targets this year. Only one running back (Danny Woodhead with 18) had more red zone targets in all of 2015. In 2014, the league leader, Jamaal Charles, had 14 over the entire year. He was the chalk in Week 7 against the Colts, and he responded with 127 total yards and a score. He faces them again this week, and again, he should be popular for those spending up at running back, as seen at Chris Gimino’s Projected Ownership page.
9. Delanie Walker has seven or more receptions in four straight games against the Colts – that’s the longest active streak of 7+ receptions against the Colts, and only one player in history (Andre Johnson with five games) has more consecutive seven-catch games against the Colts. And, more importantly, the Colts have allowed the third-most DK points per game (17.0) to tight ends this year. With Rob Gronkowski sidelined and Greg Olsen playing on Thursday night, Walker is one of the top tight end options on the main slate.
10. C.J. Prosise has 173 receiving yards in the past three weeks, more than any other running back. With two 80-yard receiving performances during that span, he’s one of only two rookie RBs since 1999 (the earliest Pro Football Reference tracks this data) to record two games of 80-plus yards receiving…and he’s done it over the past three weeks. Since Week 8, he’s seen his snap count increase from 23, to 26, to 54, and now the Seahawks have cut ties with Christine Michael, which, even assuming Thomas Rawls returns, should mean continued usage in the passing game for Prosise; even with Christine Michael in the mix, only five RBs (Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Devontae Booker, James Starks) outsnapped Prosise in Week 10. We know that the Eagles rank #1 in pass defense DVOA, but against RBs, they rank 24th. Prosise is quickly becoming the obvious value play of the week.
“10 Notes” Trivia Contest
Shoutouts go to laser1000000, FBZombies, Rfar45, and atlanticbreeze for getting last week’s trivia question right. If you haven’t gotten in touch with me through an RG message or Twitter, do it, and we’ll put your deck of RG playing cards in the next shipment.
Alright, guys. We’re upping the ante this week. This week’s trivia winner will get a brand new RotoGrinders t-shirt! (as well as a shoutout in next week’s “10 Notes,” but let’s be honest – the t-shirt is all you care about). Since we’ve got a new prize, feel free to answer this question even if you’ve won a trivia question earlier in the year.
In note #10 above, I mentioned that C.J. Prosise was one of two rookie RBs since 1999 (the earliest Pro Football Reference tracks this data) with two games of 80-plus receiving yards in his first season as a pro. Who was the other running back?
Thanks for reading, everybody, and good luck this week!