10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes for NFL Week 3
Each week during the NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between. I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for NFL Week 3.
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1. Since 2015, Philip Rivers has five games of 300+ yards and three or more touchdown passes. That’s the same number as Cam Newton (3) and Aaron Rodgers (2) combined. Only Ben Roethlisberger has more during that span with six such games. In a game with the second-highest projected total of the week, and facing the Colts’ 31st-ranked pass defense (according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA), it feels like Rivers’ floor is safe for cash games (although he’s slightly downgraded if Vontae Davis returns, which could happen, as Davis practiced on Wednesday). And in tournaments, Rivers could be somewhat ignored as those rostering Melvin Gordon (who is becoming chalkier by the minute) seek to avoid a negative correlation.
2. Aaron Rodgers has 12 straight games with a sub-100 passer rating. No other QB has an active streak of longer than five such games (the player with five is Drew Stanton, of all QBs). The last time Rodgers had a 100 passer rating in a game was way back on October 18, 2015. Since 2015, he has just three games with 3+ passer touchdowns, the same number as Brian Hoyer and Ryan Fitzpatrick, and fewer than Marcus Mariota (4) and Tyrod Taylor (5). Rodgers finds himself in a decent matchup in Week 3, as the Packers are heavily favored at home against a Lions team that ranks 24th in pass defense DVOA, and he’s almost never a bad play. But the massive ceiling that he once possessed just hasn’t been there recently.
3. The Cleveland Browns have allowed multiple touchdown passes in 14 of 18 games dating back to 2015, more than any other team in the NFL. They’re 1-13 in those games. This, of course, bodes well for Ryan Tannehill, but it also bodes well or Miami’s defense, who should be playing with the lead, which should allow them to capitalize on a few Cody Kessler mistakes. Last week, Carolina’s defense against San Francisco was the mega-chalk, and it came through with two sacks, two interceptions, and one fumble recovery for a touchdown. Miami’s defense fills that role this week, and it feels like a lock-and-load for cash games. Still, given its likely massive ownership, it makes for an interesting tournament fade.
4. In his first 18 games of his NFL career, David Johnson has averaged 4.7 yards per carry and 33.2 receiving yards per game (and bear in mind: Johnson was splitting time early in his rookie year). He’s one of four players (Ray Rice, Gale Sayers, Abner Hayesto are the others) since 1960 to reach those numbers in his first two years as a pro (minimum 150 rushing attempts). With so much value at running back this week, and with so many of those values in less-than-ideal spots, paying up to be contrarian might be a profitable move in Week 3. Unlike Cameron Artis-Payne, or Jerrick McKinnon, or Charles Sims, Johnson has a prime matchup against a Bills defense that, in Week 2, got lit up by Matt Forte to the tune of 100 yards rushing and three touchdowns.
5. One those value plays in a less-than-ideal spot is Carolina’s Cameron Artis-Payne, who takes on the Vikings. The Vikings have not allowed any team to exceed 100 yards in six straight games – that’s the longest active streak in the NFL, and in fact, the next-longest streak is half of the Vikings’, at three games. During this six-game stretch, Minnesota has faced some formidable rushers – David Johnson, Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, Eddie Lacy (twice), Rashad Jennings (okay, that might be stretching the definition of the word “formidable,” but you get the idea) – and allowed just 3.6 yards per carry and zero touchdowns. Artis-Payne likely won’t be the first to find the end zone. In fact, it’s far more likely that another Panther scores. Of course I’m talking about…
6. Kelvin Benjamin, who has caught 72 percent of passes thrown his way in 2016, which ranks 27th among WRs who have played at least 50 percent of their teams’ snaps. That’s a far cry from 2014 (Benjamin’s last year, as he missed all of 2015 with an ACL tear), when he caught just 51 percent of his targets, which was tied for 71st…out of 75 receivers (again, 50 percent snap minimum). He’s one of six receivers with a catch rate above 70% and at least 18 targets this year – the others are AJ Green, Cole Beasley, Julian Edelman, Stefon Diggs, and Jarvis Landry. The fact that these are mostly possession receivers says that Benjamin’s role in Carolina is shifting to give him more of a role in the short-to-intermediate passing game, and he might be shedding the “boom-or-bust” reputation he had entering the season.
7. Travis Benjamin had an average depth of target of 2.9 yards in Week 1. In Week 2, after the Keenan Allen injury and a week of game planning Benjamin as a WR1, Benjamin’s aDOT jumped to 16.2 yards. If Rivers relies heavily on him, there’s major upside – since 2014, Philip Rivers receivers who have received double-digit targets in a game have averaged 93.5 yards and .56 TDs per game. If Vontae Davis and/or Patrick Robinson are out again for the Colts, Benjamin and the Chargers will find themselves against a Colts team that has allowed over 600 passing yards through the first two weeks.
8. There are 21 receivers in the NFL with a average depth of target above 12.0 yards. Of the 21, only one has caught more than two-thirds of his targets. It’s Stefon Diggs, who has an 89 percent catch rate (16 catches in 18 targets, per PFF). With the Vikings run game is looking tenuous at the moment, the targets should continue, and while Diggs is a fine cash game play, it might be wise to temper expectations against a Carolina secondary that ranks seventh in pass defense DVOA.
9. Since Marcus Mariota became Tennessee’s starting QB in 2015, Delanie Walker has seven games of 10+ targets. That’s the most in the NFL among tight ends, and just one fewer than Rob Gronkowski and Jordan Reed combined. Walker has been solid to start the year, catching all six of his targets and finding the end zone last week, but there’s room for more, as he only has 11 targets through two weeks. Against a Raiders defense that was torn apart by the likes of Jacob Tamme, Austin Hooper, and Levine Toilolo last week (combined 10 catches in 13 targets, 180 yards, one touchdown), Mariota should look Walker’s way early and often, making him one of the top plays at the position in Week 3.
10. Christine Michael is one of six players this year with 10+ carries and 4+ targets in both games this season – the others are David Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, DeMarco Murray, C.J. Anderson, and LeSean McCoy (note: all running backs whose roles in their respective offenses are secure). The fly in the ointment is Thomas Rawls, who should continue to see his fair share of playing time and kill any trust fantasy players might have in Michael. It’s worth noting, though, that Michael has not only excelled with the ball in his hands (77.4 rushing grade at Pro Football Focus, trailing only DeAngelo Williams and David Johnson), but he’s also been an excellent pass blocker – his 84.7 pass blocking grade at PFF is best in the NFL. If he keeps it up, it’ll become harder and harder for Pete Carroll to pry him off the field.
“10 Notes” Trivia Contest
If you followed “10 Notes” during baseball season, you know that, occasionally, I’ll throw in a trivia question for a shoutout in the next blog. Well, we’re moving on up. For football, not only will you get a shoutout in next week’s “10 Notes,” but you’ll get a brand new pack of RotoGrinders playing cards, which you can use to beat all of your friends in poker. So even if the notes above don’t help you win money, maybe the cards will. Here’s this week’s question:
Above, I mentioned that Christine Michael has 10+ carries and 4+ targets in two straight games. Who was the last Seahawks running back with 10+ carries and 4+ targets in THREE consecutive games?
First to correctly answer wins this week’s prizes. Leave your answer in the thread below!
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, and Pro Football Reference.
Be sure to check back on Thursdays this NFL season for more of “10 Notes”!