10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes for NFL Week 9
Each week during the NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between. I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for NFL Week 9.
1. Ezekiel Elliott’s 159 carries in 2016 are the most by a rookie running back in his first seven games since another Cowboys back, Julius Jones, had 168 carries in his first seven games in 2004. Clearly the volume is there, and Elliott couldn’t ask for a better matchup in Week 9, as he takes on a Browns team that ranks second-to-last in the NFL in rush defense DVOA. Every RB who has received at least 17 carries against the Browns (Ryan Mathews, Matt Jones, LeGarrette Blount, Giovani Bernard, DeMarco Murray, Matt Forte) has found the end zone at least once, and Elliott is a near lock to add his name to that list. He’ll have huge ownership, but in a week where many high-end options (David Johnson, A.J. Green, Rob Gronkowski) are on bye, Elliott will be tough to fade.
2. Drew Brees is averaging 30.6 completions per game, which is the most ever by an QB in a season. If it holds, he’ll pass…Drew Brees, who currently holds second place (29.3 completions per game in 2011), third place (28.5, 2014 and 2015), seventh place (28.0, 2010), eighth place (27.9, 2013), and ninth place (27.5, 2007) on the all-time list. Brees’s struggles on the road have well documented, but the Niners haven’t been able to slow down anybody (need proof: Drew Stanton had two touchdown passes against them in Week 5). He should have no trouble reaching 30 completions against a 49ers team that has plays at the fastest situation-neutral pace in the NFL (25.66 seconds per play).
3. In Weeks 1-5, Dak Prescott’s average depth of target was 8.2 yards, which was tied for 22nd-longest in the NFL. In Weeks 6-8, his aDOT has risen to 10.7 yards, which is fifth-highest in the NFL over that span. Given his ability to rack up points on the ground (four rushing TDs, most in the NFL among QBs), the floor is there. With Dez Bryant back in the mix, and with Dak’s newfound willingness to chuck the ball downfield, he’s got the upside needed for tournaments. The matchup, obviously, is close to perfect, as the Browns have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 19 of 24 games dating back to 2015. The final component, of course, is price: is he worth the price tag? Prescott is the ninth-most-expensive QB at both FanDuel ($7,600) and DraftKings ($6,100), which is still reasonable.
4. One more Dak note: he is averaging .56 points per drop back this season. The only two quarterbacks with higher marks than that? Tom Brady (.70) and Matt Ryan (.58).
5. It’s not exactly Russell Westbrook Thunder versus Kevin Durant and the Warriors, but we’ve got a minor revenge narrative in Week 9, as Brandon Marshall will revisit his old team, as the Jets take on the Dolphins in Miami. It’s a matchup in which Marshall has excelled, recording 128 and 131 yards in his last two games against the Dolphins, including two touchdowns in his most recent game, back in Week 12 of last season.
6. Charcandrick West got 16 carries on four occasions last season. He scored TDs in all four of those games. In Week 9, he’s got a good shot at reaching 16 for the first time this year, as the Chiefs are home favorites against a Jacksonville team that has been vulnerable against the run (27th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA) and just got torched by the Titans (214 rushing yards, 2 TDs). West’s price tag ($5,600 at FanDuel, $4,400 at DraftKings) makes him an ideal back to pair with Ezekiel Elliott in cash games, and given his ability to pick up yardage through the air, as well, he’s a fine salary saving option in tournaments, particularly at PPR sites like DraftKings.
7. In 11 career regular season games against the Ravens, Antonio Brown has averaged 59.9 yards, and he’s only found the end zone once. He’s never scored a touchdown in six regular season games in Baltimore, and his his best game on the road against the Ravens was seven catches for 90 yards. With Julio Jones and Mike Evans playing on Thursday night and A.J. Green on bye, Brown and Odell Beckham, Jr. are the de facto “expensive receivers to pay up for.” But even though Ben Roethlisberger is “on track to start” (according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette), it’s hard to get excited about paying up for Brown in this matchup.
8. Since 2015, the Chiefs have allowed a 73.3 opposing passer rating at home. Here’s some context: Mark Sanchez career passer rating is just one point higher, at 74.3. In Week 9, they have a date with Blake Bortles, who has thrown nine interceptions this year, which isn’t “”(player-popup)Ryan Fitzpatrick”:/players/ryan-fitzpatrick-11626 bad”, but it’s still bad. As 7.5 favorites at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs are a decent bet to create turnovers, which could lead to a big game for the Chiefs defense/special teams.
9. In 2015, Melvin Gordon got 28.6 percent of the Chargers’ red zone carries. That ranked 38th in the NFL among qualified backs. In 2016, Gordon has received 83.3 percent of San Diego’s carries inside the 20, which ranks third. Moreover, his 94.7 percent of carries inside the 10 is best in the NFL. He’s in a tough matchup in Week 9 against the Titans, who have yet to allow allow a 100-yard rusher on the season. Given the matchup, though, he’ll likely have minuscule ownership, and with this much red zone usage, he’s got multi-touchdown upside every week.
10. Russell Wilson has an 8.4 TD% on Monday Night Football, which is the highest rate for any QB in NFL history with (minimum 100 attempts on Monday night). His 123.5 passer rating is the highest ever on Monday Night Football, as well (again, minimum 100 attempts). In five games on Monday night, Wilson has thrown for 1067 yards, 10 TDs, and zero interceptions. Given the state of the Seahawks passing game (just six passing TDs through eight games) and Wilson’s inability to use his legs (just 44 yards on the ground – he’s rushed for more than that in 20 individual games in his career), it’s hard to trust him. But given his history on Monday night, he might be worth a tournament flier.
“10 Notes” Trivia Contest
Shoutout to @Linsanity88 for naming Herschel Walker as the answer to last week’s trivia question. And sorry about the Jeremy Lin injury…
On to the Week 9 trivia question. As always, leave your answer in the comments thread, and the first to correctly answer the question gets a shoutout in this column next week, as well as the weekly prize. Remember: if you’ve won before, please don’t leave any guesses (there are plenty of decks of RG playing cards to go around!). On to the question!
In Note #1 above, I mentioned that Ezekiel Elliott’s 169 carries are the most by a rookie in his first seven career games since Julius Jones in 2004. Which NFL player has the MOST carries in his first seven games as a pro?
Thanks for reading, and good luck this week, guys!