10 Notes: Week 10 Sneak Peek
Hey guys. No lengthy intro this week. Instead, we’ll just get right into football, because there’s a lot to unpack from Week 9, and a lot to look forward to for Week 10.
However, I do have a request for a section I’d like to include in next week’s “Sneak Peek.” If you’re a low-stakes or low-ranked player and have taken down an NFL GPP over the last few weeks, reach out to me either in the comments section or on Twitter and tell me what tournament you won – I’d like to speak to you and do a quick interview for this article. It doesn’t have to be a large-field tournament; any GPP will do.
Alright. Let’s get to football.
All this happened, more or less…
Recapping Week 9 with 10 noteworthy happenings.
1. It’s nice when things go as planned. Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 92 yards on 18 carries, finding the end zone twice. Unfortunately, the other half of Week 9’s chalk running back tandem didn’t hold up his end of the bargain…
2. Charcandrick West turned into Chalkandrick Bust. At about 1:15, when I saw on the ticket at the bottom of the screen that West had gotten off to a slow start, I thought, “You know, Charcandrick West isn’t really very good. What if he gets 15 carries and ends up with 30 yards? Maybe I shouldn’t have gone all in on him…nah, he’ll be fine.” Thirteen carries and 39 yards later, I realize I have really good instincts. They just kick in 15 minutes too late to be useful.
3. Melvin Gordon showed us why yards per carry can be a flawed statistic. Entering Week 9, he was averaging 3.6 yards per carry, which ranked 33rd out of 39 qualified backs. On the other hand, he had nine rushes inside the five yard line, and 17 inside the 10. It’s really hard to get chunk yardage inside the 10 yard line. Like, really hard – your upside is ten yards (#Math). With 32 carries for 196 yards (6.1 average), he brought his yards per carry up to a healthy 4.0 for the season, and he rewarded those who read Chris Gimino’s Ownership Analysis column.
4. There was a lot of throwing on Sunday. Eli Manning was throwing touchdowns (four of them!) Andrew Luck was throwing picks (two in the first half!), and DFS players who rostered Charcandrick West threw away their money. And then this happened:
Travis Kelce threw his towel at the ref, the ref threw his hat, the other ref threw his flag, the Jags are throwing up their hands. Everybody’s just throwing stuff! It’s anarchy!
5. Randall Cobb pulled a reverse Ty Montgomery when he was declared active at the last minute. To further troll DFS players everywhere, he was active active, not “active” active, as he vultured “this nifty pass from Aaron Rodgers. It was one of his two catches for 14 yards on the day.
6. Kyle Rudolph had the elusive 1-1-1 game – one catch, one yard, one touchdown. I couldn’t believe that it was the fourth 1-1-1 game to occur this year! (That’s it. If you’re waiting on some DFS-related, actionable advice…move along).
7. Turns out Drew Brees isn’t always bad on the road. He threw for 323 yards and three TDs. This was a special matchup, though, and more often than not, “fade Brees on the road” is a strategy that works. It was the first time since December, 2014 (and just the seventh time during Brees’s tenure as a Saint) that Brees threw for 300+ yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions on the road.
8. DFS players wracked their brains all week trying to decide whether Mark Ingram or Tim Hightower would shoulder the load in Week 10. And it turned out to be an exercise in futility. Both Ingram (15 carries, 158 yards, one TD, plus a receiving TD) and Hightower (23 carries, 87 yards, 1 TD) easily met value against a 49ers run defense that might go down as one of the worst in history.
9. With a team-leading eight targets, two of which he turned into scores, it’s possible that Michael Thomas is Drew Brees’s favorite weapon. Unfortunately, he’ll be tough to trust against the Broncos in Week 10.
10. The Ravens run defense is for real. It limited Le’Veon Bell to 32 yards on 14 carries. If you’re playing the Thursday slate, Baltimore is firmly in play in a cushy matchup against the Browns.
Snap Judgments for Week 10
First impressions of 10 noteworthy players for Week 10, using DraftKings pricing.
David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals (vs. SF) – $8,400 – Is it next Sunday yet? I can’t wait to click the “lock” button for David Johnson on the RotoGrinders Lineup Builder. Week 10 roster construction will start and end with the Cardinals running back. If Ezekiel Elliott was in the best spot of the year in Week 9 (as I heard mentioned more than once), well, that “best spot of the year” reign lasted all of one week. New Orleans ran the ball 40 times against the 49ers, and Drew Brees threw 39 times. The last running back to total 100 yards rushing and 100 yards receiving in a single game was Arian Foster in 2011. Just sayin’…
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (at PIT) – $7,900 – Every back this season who has reached 20 carries against Pittsburgh has had at least 127 yards and two touchdowns. Okay, it’s only happened twice (Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount). But both are big, physical backs like Elliott, and Dallas will, no doubt, try to keep the ball out of Big Ben’s hands by overloading Elliott with carries. Elliott in Week 10 is similar to Le’Veon Bell in Week 9 in the “he’s not in as good of a spot as the top guy, but I could see him outperforming him if I squint” spot. Let’s just hope he’s more effective.
Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers (vs. MIA) – $7,100 – The volume continues to be there for Gordon, and while he may not be on the level of Zeke or David Johnson, he is firmly in play for Week 10 against a Dolphins team that got chewed up by Matt Forte (12 carries, 92 yards) on Sunday.
Jay Ajayi, Miami Dolphins (at SD) – $7,000 – So. Many. Running backs. And I’m even leaving out a few of the high-end RBs in great spots (Le’Veon Bell vs. Dallas, Devontae Booker at New Orleans, Lamar Miller at Jacksonville) for the sake of writing up other positions. Ajayi is matchup proof, as he showed us against Buffalo in Week 7 and then against the Jets, both better run defenses than San Diego’s. He’s got 529 yards and four TDs in his last four games. Use him.
J.J. Nelson, Arizona Cardinals (vs. SF) – $4,200 – It’s going to be crucial to find viable cheap options at WR in Week 10. Enter J.J. Nelson. He’s listed as the #2 WR on the Cardinals official depth chart (for whatever that’s worth, which may not be much). More importantly, he’s playing against the 49ers, which means you can add a few expected targets. Carson Palmer has thrown to him 19 times over the past two weeks; look for that to continue in Week 10.
Tyrell Williams, San Diego Chargers (vs. MIA) – $5,700 – His price has been bumped up $700 for Week 10, but he still feels too cheap as the 24th-most-expensive WR at DraftKings. Miami has been stingy against the pass (ranked 10th in pass defense DVOA), but again, inexpensive targets from the WR position will be essential in Week 10. Williams provides that.
Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos (at NO) – $6,800 – For whatever reason, I never roster Sanders, but I could see this becoming one of my favorite plays of the week. He’ll be in the Superdome against a Saints defense that can’t stop anybody. Just ask Quinton Patton, who caught six balls for 106 yards against New Orleans on Sunday.
Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings (at WAS) – $6,200 – Diggs has 26 targets over the past two weeks. Only Mike Evans and Allen Robinson, with 27, have had more. If he’s going to be shadowed by Josh Norman, it’d be wise to look elsewhere.
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (at CAR) – $5,600 – With the expensive RB roster build, I’m not even sure it’ll be possible to pay for Kelce in cash games, but the matchup is ideal. Carolina ranked 28th in pass defense DVOA against the tight end going into Week 9, and then they gave up 90 yards to Lance Kendricks. He should’ve added a touchdown, as well, but he literally let a ball bounce off his chest in the end zone.
Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals (vs. SF) – $6,500 – I left QB for last because it’s such a vexing position in Week 10. Tom Brady faces Seattle (ranked 5th in pass defense DVOA). Matt Ryan is on the road against Philadelphia (ranked 1st). Drew Brees is at home (Yes!) against Denver (No! – ranked 2nd). Cam Newton faces Kansas City (ranked 7th). Colin Kaepernick faces Arizona (ranked 3rd). Palmer should throw a ton of passes, and that’s something. The story of the week, in my opinion, will be which QB emerges as the chalk option, if any does.