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2023 Atlanta Braves Preview: Futures Odds, Lineup, Rotation, Bullpen Projections

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2023-03-28 17:06:53

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MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida is here to preview each team’s pitching rotation and lineup as he prepares you for the 2023 MLB season. If you’re an Atlanta Braves fan, find out more about sports betting and check out all of the MLB futures odds before Opening Day!

In 2021, the Atlanta Braves finished with only 88 wins in the regular season before making a surprise run to the World Series without Ronald Acuna Jr. in the lineup, securing the organization’s first championship since 1995.

Entering 2022, Atlanta returned the vast majority of their core contributors, and returned Acuna Jr. from an ACL tear – looking to become the first MLB team to win back-to-back titles since 2000. Though the team won 101 games in the regular season en route to their fifth consecutive NL East division crown, they fell short of their ultimate goal, losing in four games in the National League Division Series in October.

Despite losing Dansby Swanson, Kenley Jansen, Luke Jackson, and Adam Duvall to free agency during the winter, hopes remain high for the Braves heading into 2023. Below, we take a look at their offense and pitching staff, and what we can expect from the roster as a whole this summer, including a futures market recommendation!

Starting Lineup

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Catcher:

In December, Sean Murphy was acquired from the Oakland Athletics in a three-team deal. Less than a month later, the Braves signed him to a six-year, $73 million extension that will keep him from being a free agent until 2030.

It is not difficult to see why Atlanta was willing to part with multiple notable prospects to make Murphy their catcher of the future. Last year, Murphy had the fifth-quickest pop time of all catchers and ranked in the 84th percentile in framing behind the plate. Murphy’s offensive abilities are also significantly better than league average, particularly among catchers. In 2022, he played 148 games, hitting 18 home runs ranking better than league average in both strikeout and walk percentage. If there is anything even slightly negative to say about Murphy, it is that there is room for improvement as a baserunner.

Murphy is unlikely to contend for an MVP award anytime soon, but his strong contact skills, elite defense, and ability to hit both right- and left-handed pitching make him one of the premier backstops in Major League Baseball. Expect another strong campaign from him.

First Base:

Following the departure of Freddie Freeman last winter, Atlanta made a blockbuster trade with the Oakland Athletics to land Matt Olson. Shortly after the trade was completed, the Braves signed him to an eight-year, $168 million contract extension, which will keep him in Cobb County through the 2030 season.

Coming off of a career-year in 2021 with the Athletics, Olson regressed slightly in 2022, hitting fewer home runs, walking less often, and striking-out at an alarming rate. Other than making consistently hard-contact, Olson did not do anything at an elite level in his first year with the Braves. Still, his 29th percentile strikeout rate was the only true disappointment from last summer.

Olson is unlikely to make a serious run at an MVP award as long as he struggles with his contact rates, but he remains a quality option at first base – one that Atlanta is glad to have as part of their core for 2023 and beyond.

Second Base:

In 2021, Ozzie Albies hit 30 home runs and stole 20 bases, all while playing elite defense at second base. Unfortunately, his 2022 campaign was derailed by injuries, playing in 64 games due to a foot fracture and a fractured pinky finger.

As a result of his injuries, his power numbers regressed dramatically across the board. Still, his contact rates remained excellent and he ranked in the 82nd percentile in outs above average, per Baseball Savant.

Among players with at least 269 plate appearances last year, Albies ranked 11th in swing%, and he continued to be aggressive on pitches inside the strike zone. Based on his underlying metrics, there is little reason to believe that he has lost his impressive power potential forever. After a full offseason and a healthy Spring Training, he is likely to reestablish himself as one of the elite second basemen in baseball this summer. Still only 26 years old, it is possible that we have not seen the best Albies has to offer.

Third Base:

Austin Riley has been a stalwart for the Braves across the last two seasons, playing in 319 of a possible 324 games, averaging 35 home runs and 100 runs-batted-in for his club. Atlanta saw enough from him during the first half of the 2021 campaign to make him a cornerstone of their franchise, signing him to a 10-year, $212 million contract extension, which will keep him with the team through 2032.

Looking at his offensive profile from the last two years, there are few things to complain about other than his contact ability. In 2022, he ranked in the 95th percentile in HardHit%, 97th percentile in xwOBA, and the 96th percentile in barrel rate – proving that his breakout campaign from the year prior was no fluke, and asserting himself as one of the most dangerous hitters in the league. Still, Riley was abysmal defensively, finishing 32nd in outs above average at his position, and his baserunning was atrocious.

Riley is certainly durable enough to win his first MVP award, but his strikeout propensity and the fact that he does the vast majority of his damage against left-handed pitching make him someone that is not worthwhile to invest in on the futures market during the preseason, especially at such short odds. If there is any early season indication that his contact rates have dramatically improved or that he has improved his capabilities against right-handed pitching, that is the time to buy stock in Riley to win this award. Until those things happen, he is a tier two slugger.

Shortstop:

Vaughn Grissom burst on to the MLB scene last year as a rookie, batting .291, swiping five bases, and hitting five home runs in only 41 games. On pitches inside the strike zone, he made contact at an elite level, but his youth was evident as well – too often chasing pitches outside of the strike zone, which led to below average plate discipline metrics.

Grissom is someone who could benefit from Major League Baseball banning the shift heading into this upcoming season. As a rookie, he had an undesirably-high 49.1% pull-rate, in addition to hitting too many balls on the ground. Thus, it is likely that he would have seen a regression in batting average on those balls this summer after teams had more data on his batted ball metrics. Now that teams will be forced to have two infielders on each side of second base, Grissom has the potential to avoid a major sophomore slump, despite a .350 BABIP and other metrics which suggest significant regression.

Only 21 years old, Grissom is an unfinished product, but he is likely to be a productive player for the Braves in 2023, nonetheless.

Outfield:

After an extraordinary performance in the 2021 NLCS, Eddie Rosario came out as cold as humanly possible to begin 2022, with only three hits in his first 49 plate appearances, a .068 batting average. It turns out that Rosario had swelling behind his right eye, which was causing blurry vision – it’s hard enough to hit major league pitchers with both eyes seeing clearly.

Following his return to the field in early July, Rosario’s production was far more palatable, hitting .243 with five home runs and 24 runs-batted-in across the remainder of the campaign.

Entering 2023, Rosario’s most useful role is likely as a platoon, limiting his action against left-handed pitching. His defense leaves much to be desired as well for a player who is projected to play full-time. It would not be surprising to see the Braves look externally for an upgrade here if Rosario gets off to a slow start, especially considering the fact that Atlanta holds a club option on his contract for 2024.

A former third-round pick in 2019, Michael Harris II wasted no time making a name for himself at the big league level after making his MLB debut in late May. In 114 games played, he hit 19 home runs, stole 20 bases, and played elite defense in the outfield. Even more impressive, Harris II had only 196 plate appearances at the AA level of the minors prior to getting called-up.

His underlying metrics indicate that he has extremely good fortune on balls in play, evident by a .361 BABIP and significant discrepancies between his actual stats and expected stats. Poor plate discipline is the most obvious critique of Harris II, in what was otherwise a sensational rookie campaign.

At 22 years old, he is not yet an MVP candidate, but there is reason to believe that he can have another extremely productive year for the Braves if he can develop a better eye at the plate – something that should be correctable given his strong strikeout and walk rates from the minor leagues.

Ronald Acuna Jr. was clearly not back to 100% health last season, following an ACL tear in July 2021. In 119 games played, he stole 29 bases, but hit only 15 home runs, seeing his walk-rate and ISO plummet compared to his pre-injury numbers. The main impediment to his success was a 47.7% ground ball-rate, which was 16.4% higher than it was in 2021 prior to suffering a season-ending knee injury.

Having a full offseason to get healthy and to get his mechanics back in order, bettors should be bullish about Acuna Jr.’s prospects for the 2023 campaign. In August 2019, outfielder Tyler Naquin tore his ACL, then saw his launch angle reduce, causing a higher ground ball% in his first full season back in 2021. Last year, his launch angle increased and so did his fly ball%.

In 2022, Acuna Jr. ranked in the 92nd percentile in HardHit%, 95th percentile in xwOBA, and the 88th percentile in barrel%. He still possessed strong plate discipline skills, swinging at only 28.5% of pitches outside of the strike zone, while simultaneously being aggressive on pitches inside the zone. If he can simply hit more balls in the air this summer, his elite exit velocity could see him threaten for 40 home runs, and possibly a National League MVP award.

Designated Hitter:

In 2015, Marcell Ozuna ranked in the 71st percentile in sprint speed and the 94th percentile in average exit velocity en route to 37 home runs and a stellar defensive season. In 2022, Ozuna ranked in the 32nd percentile in spring speed and the 57th percentile in average exit velocity – making him a below average hitter and unplayable as a defender in the outfield.

From July 9 to the end of the regular season, Ozuna batted .218, with a .255 on-base%. In that span, he had a 4.8% walk-rate and struckout in 28.5% of his plate appearances. Despite Atlanta’s steep financial commitments to him for several more years, it would not be surprising to see a team in win-now mode cut their losses and move on if Ozuna gets off to a slow start in April.

Utility:

Orlando Arcia does not do anything particularly exceptional on a baseball field, but neither is he woefully deficient in any area. In 2022, he hit far too few line drives and far too many ground balls to be considered for an everyday role, but his adequate contact skills and versatility as a defender make him a valuable backup option for a team that has good durability at most of their starting positions.

Pitching Staff

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Starting Pitcher:

Last year, we invested in Max Fried to win the NL Cy Young at +2000 during spring training, commenting in our preseason preview that “he has the potential to be the best pitcher in the National League.” Ahead of Opening Day in 2023, we encourage another investment in Fried in the futures market after he finished second to Sandy Alcantara in last year’s voting.

Since the beginning of 2020, Fried owns a 2.68 ERA, 3.00 FIP, and a 1.05 WHIP across 407.0 innings of work. In each of the last two seasons, he has made at least 28 starts, proving that he has the durability to win this honor. Already one of the game’s premier pitchers entering 2022, Fried drastically increased his changeup usage against right-handed batters, holding them to a .186 batting average and inducing a 36.5% whiff rate with the offering. He now has two elite pitches and two above average secondary offerings against both right- and left-handed hitters, making him matchup-proof against even the most analytically-driven lineups in the league.

After finishing in the 92nd percentile in average exit velocity, 94th percentile in BB%, and the 91st percentile in chase rate last season, there is no discernable ceiling for Fried, who is playing for a potential new contract in the off-season after settling for a meager $13.5 million in arbitration this past winter. Expect Fried to be highly effective once again in 2023.

Simply, there were few pitchers in all of baseball last summer more dominant than Spencer Strider. Even more impressive, Strider was only 23 years old and had 2.1 innings of big league work under his belt prior to 2022.

By nearly all accounts Strider was elite – ranking in the 97th percentile in fastball velocity, 93rd percentile in extension, 76th percentile in fastball spin rate, 99th percentile in K%, 95th percentile in whiff%, 97th percentile in xBA, and 96th percentile in xSLG. He had a 2.00 FIP and a 1.03 WHIP against left-handed batters, compared to a 1.64 FIP and a 0.96 WHIP against right-handed batters, meaning that he had no ugly splits that make him more vulnerable against one type of lineup construction than another. He posted a 2.38 FIP or better each of his first three times through the order, proving that he belongs in the rotation rather than in the bullpen.

If there is any concern for Strider entering his sophomore season, it is that his fastball and slider comprised more than 95% of his total pitches in 2022. It is rare for a starting pitcher to survive long-term with fewer than three reliable offerings, but then again – not many pitchers have a 98 mph fastball to pair with a slider that can produce north of a 50% whiff rate. We recommend staying away from him on the futures market for these reasons, but it would be a shock if Strider was anything other than rock solid again in 2023.

From 2018 to 2021, Kyle Wright posted a 6.56 ERA, 6.56 FIP, 18.2 K%, 14.8 BB%, and a 1.69 WHIP across 70.0 innings of work in the big leagues. In 2022, he delivered a 3.19 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 23.6 K%, 7.2 BB%, and a 1.16 WHIP. But how?

Notably, Wright made his curveball his primary offering, throwing it 34.1% of the time in 2022 compared to 14.3% of the time in 2021 and 13.1% of the time in 2020. Last summer, his curveball ranked in the 82nd percentile in spin rate and held opposing hitters to a .211 batting average. He also made a point to throw his changeup far more often against left-handed hitters, a pitch that held them to a .153 batting average. Less of the fastball, with more reliance on his sinker, curveball, and changeup, led to a career-best 55.6% ground ball rate, which ranked fifth-best among hurlers who started at least 20 games.

A former fifth overall draft pick, in 2022 Wright looked like a player finally delivering on his potential, rather than someone who had an inexplicably strong year. If he can continue to work ahead in the count, he has a good chance to repeat his success from last season. If he decides to throw even less of his fastball against left-handed hitters, there is a chance we see Wright establish himself as one of the best starting pitchers in the league. At 60:1, he is worth a very small sprinkle on the futures market.

Entering his age-39 season, Charlie Morton will make $20 million, with a club option for 2024 indicating that there is optimism on both sides that this is still not time for a farewell tour.

In 2022, Morton’s second season with Atlanta, he delivered 172.0 innings as a stalwart in the rotation, though there were undeniable signs of aging. Notably, he surrendered 28 home runs – a career worst by a margin of 10. Morton ended the season ranked in the 28th percentile in average exit velocity, 17th percentile in HardHit%, and 15th in barrel%, all indicators that the spike in home runs allowed was warranted, rather than a result of bad luck. He also posted his second consecutive campaign with worse than a 59.0% first-strike rate, meaning that he was often working behind in the count against opposing hitters.

Morton’s curveball remains elite – having ranked in the 98th percentile in spin rate in 2022, the pitch held opposing hitters to a .171 batting average. However, Morton’s lack of a second reliable offering makes him far more hittable than many people realize, particularly against left-handed batters. Morton is likely to be around for the entirety of 2023, due to his significant contract and his ability to eat innings. Yet, there are more than a few reasons to think that this might be his final trip around the league, at least for a contending team.

According to David O’Brien of The Athletic, the final spot in the Braves’ rotation is likely going to be either Ian Anderson or Mike Soroka. Considering that Soroka was shut down in late September with elbow soreness, in addition to having a tight hamstring to begin spring training – it seems likely that Anderson has a significant leg up in this competition.

In 2020, Anderson burst on to the MLB scene, posting a 1.95 ERA, 2.44 xERA, and 2.54 FIP in 32.1 innings of work. As a former third overall draft pick, he carried a tremendous amount of hype into the 2021 campaign, but regressed to a 3.58 ERA, 4.27 xERA, and a 4.12 FIP over a larger sample size. Last year, he lost a tick on his fastball, which allowed right-handed batters to hit .355 with a .533 slugging percentage against the offering. His ineffective fastball led to decreased effectiveness for his other pitches, resulting in career-worst numbers across the board, including ranking in the 27th percentile in K% and the 11th percentile in BB%.

During the off-season, Anderson has reportedly been “working on a little slider,” but is still primarily a fastball/changeup pitcher. In March, Anderson’s fastball velocity will be worth watching, to see if he can regain any of his 2020 form. As of now, there is a reason that no sportsbook is offering a line on him to win the NL Cy Young – he is not even a lock to be with Atlanta at the big-league level in a full-time role.

Bullpen:

From June 16 to the end of the regular season in 2022, Raisel Iglesias posted a 1.33 ERA and a 1.59 FIP across 40.2 innings of work. In that span, he did not allow a single home run. On the season, he struckout 42% more hitters than the league average pitcher, while simultaneously walking 30.0% fewer hitters than league average. If there is any concern for the Braves’ closer, it is the fact that he lost over a full mph on his fastball from 2021 to 2022. Other than that, there is little reason to expect major regression from Iglesias, who has posted three consecutive years of elite numbers.

This season will be the first time in MLB history that pitchers will need to worry about their pace, with the league implementing a 15 second timer with the bases empty and a 20 second timer with runners on base. Despite A.J. Minter being outstanding in 2022, there is slight cause for concern, considering the fact that he took, on average, 17.0 seconds between pitches with the bases empty and 22.0 seconds with runners on base last summer. Earlier in his career, Minter struggled with command and proved erratic on the mound, which still manifests itself from time to time. At his best, Minter is one of the game’s premier late-inning options. At his worst, he is not even capable of handling mop-up duty.

After reports that he retooled his mechanics ahead of 2022, Joe Jimenez posted a career-best 3.49 ERA, 2.90 xERA, and a 2.00 FIP across 56.2 innings before a lumbar strain ended his season in mid-September. He finished the year ranked 95th in K%, 83rd in BB%, and 94th in fastball spin rate. He will need to limit hard-contact in 2023 if he wants to repeat his breakout performance, but the floor is high for the 28-year-old ahead of Opening Day.

Collin McHugh posted a 4.70 ERA, 4.26 xERA, and a 4.43 FIP in 2019 with the Houston Astros, throwing his fastball 32.4% of the time. At the beginning of 2021, he committed to his slider as his primary pitch, with a cutter as his only other consistent offering. The change has resulted in a 2.09 ERA, 2.43 FIP, and a 0.94 WHIP across his last 133.1 innings. He finished 2022 ranked in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and the 92nd percentile in HardHit%. Expect his elite spin rates and excellent command to continue inducing weak contact in 2023, leading to another strong season.

Kirby Yates, inked to a two-year, $8.25 million contract this past off-season could make this Atlanta relief corps one of the most feared units in the entire league. Yates threw only 7.0 innings last year before elbow inflammation ended his season prematurely, but he reportedly “feels free” ahead of spring training this February, per Justin Toscano. He commented to the media earlier this month, “The way I feel right now, the way my arm feels right now, it didn’t feel this way at all last year.” In his last healthy season, Yates delivered a 1.19 ERA, 2.22 xERA, and a 1.30 FIP in 60 appearances. If truly healthy, the Braves have, arguably, the best bullpen in all of baseball.

Atlanta Braves – Futures Pick & Prediction

In the last five years, the Atlanta Braves have secured five division titles, won the 2021 World Series, and posted a 58.1% regular season winning percentage – good for a 94-win pace in a 162 game season. This past winter, Atlanta added one of the premier catchers in baseball, adding to an elite core that also features hitters Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, and Ronald Acuna Jr. The starting rotation has two bonafide stars, an additional young hurler who is capable of ascending to stardom, in addition to having enough depth to handle any midseason injuries. The bullpen is five-deep with elite arms, and the unit has one of the game’s most shrewd late-inning managers with Brian Snitker pulling the strings. Factor in an ownership group that has publicly stated their intention of increasing payroll in the near future – the over on the Braves’ win total makes a lot of sense here.

PICK: Over 94.5 wins (-110, DraftKings)

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About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom