A Thanksgiving Touchdown - Six Points
It’s Thanksgiving. What are you thankful for? Family? Friends? Dean Murray? Sooooo chalky! If you want your thankfulness to have a chance to win a big tournament, you have got to be more contrarian. You have got to think outside the box! Here’s a couple of things I’m thankful for, just as suggestions. I’m Thankful for…
BELT LOOPS – The belt gets all the credit, but it takes a team to keep pants up.
SNOW – Every flake hides the dog droppings you didn’t pick up.
DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME – Because having your headlights off on the way to late lunch is simply unacceptable.
WHOEVER INVENTED COFFEE – Let’s be honest, coffee beans weren’t the first thing he used. For pouring scalding water over poison ivy leaves and then drinking it, thanks for taking one for the team. While we’re at it…
COFFEE – Without it, would anyone ever poop again?
THE BOTTOM SIGN – That top sign had me so confused.
FIRE HYDRANTS – Without them, there would be way too many parking spaces.
THE TERM “SYMPATHY WEIGHT” – It sounds so much nicer than “I ate a full block of cheese at 11 pm” weight.
LETTUCE – No other food can turn 5 tablespoons of ranch, 2 cups of shredded cheese, and a handful of bacon bits into a “healthy food” in quite the same way.
HIGHWAY RUMBLE STRIPS – The #DadJoke of pretending one of your kids farted will never not be funny.
The Thanksgiving Slate
I’m just going to freestyle here, giving you some thoughts, some facts and figures, and, of course, some memes in six points. Hopefully it helps. Then, you can be thankful for me.
1) Andrew Luck is out. You can view this on several levels. On the most remedial level, don’t play him. On nearly the same level, don’t play Scott Tolzien either. His only significant game time dates back to 2013, where he went for 1 TD and 5 INTs in three games as a Packer. I warn you not to meander on into preseason box scores, as you’ll see he totaled 390 pass yards on 41 of 62 passing (66.1%) with two touchdowns and an interception. Hidden in there is the fact that he led 18 drives, and the Colts punted on 10 of them, with an eleventh ending in a safety on a bad snap to the punter. Also, the fact that Indianapolis has allowed 35 sacks (second most in the NFL) leaves out the sacks Luck avoided and that Tolzien will take.
A bit deeper is the level to fade the Indianapolis offense entirely. The Pittsburgh pass defense has allowed the eighth most pass yards this year (282.7), but has been very stingy at the goal line, with only six teams allowing fewer pass TDs. Also, they started the year allowing three straight 300-yard passers, but have only allowed one since. (Holding Brady to 222 is noteworthy.) They are much softer against the run, but Frank Gore is no longer a back that get his points without a functioning pass game behind him.
The next level down is the Pittsburgh DST, which faces Scott Tolzien. They’d be in play without the Tolzien-factor, having summed 13 sacks, four turnovers, and a score in the last three weeks. With the Tolzien-factor, they are nearly unfadeable.
At a dangerously low level, consider the game to have less potential to be a back-and-forth, high scoring affair. That limits the upside for Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. Remember though that even after the Vegas game total shifted down five points, the Steelers still have the second highest implied team total for the slate.
As to Le’Veon Bell’s prospects? In high school, I was on a debate trip, returning through Madison, WI on a Saturday, to drop off someone. Seeing the sea of red outside, I asked the guy if the Badgers had won. His response? “Who knows. They drink in celebration if they win, and they drown their sorrows in booze if they lose.” Le’Veon’s prospects follow a similar pattern. Start him.
Way deeper yet, you’ll find the people starting Hilton, Moncrief, Gore and Doyle just because of their expected low ownership. People on a level that deep usually don’t make it back to the surface alive. Take their money. What do they need it for?!
2) The big winner on Thanksgiving will have solved the puzzle that is the Redskins’ receiving options. Here is the key we’ll use to solve it.
There’s obviously a lot to process. The first thing that stands out to me is that Jamison Crowder, in his last five tilts, has four scores and three hundred-yard games. The caveat is that his target percentages among Redskin pass catchers have been 4th, 2nd, Tied-for-1st, 1st, and Tied-for-3rd going back over that span, which doesn’t instill much confidence as the most expensive receiver of the bunch. If you need a confidence boast, here’s my man Scott Barrett doing just that:
I’m figuring out a way to get Crowder in there, if for no other reason, because I think people will take the salary relief on the cheaper options.
Jordan Reed is a tough fade, but I think I’m going to try it. First off, tight end is a position where you can most effectively find salary relief, so playing Reed has an opportunity cost to it. More so, you can see that before his concussion, he had 25% or more of the team’s targets in three of five games. Then, post injury, he’s only been over 20% twice. It’s not a comfortable fade, but one I think is necessary.
Pierre Garcon is much easier fade. Coming off 6-for-116 and a score, people will flock to him for $3,900. Looking deeper though, the only two times he got over 25% of the team’s targets (both times over 30%) were instances of target consolidation. In one, Reed was out and the other Jackson. Omitting those two weeks, he’s had under 21% of targets every week but last. Easy fade.
DeSean Jackson is another tough decision. Week 4 was a bit of an aberration, as Redskins had several short fields, a one play drive, and three punts. That left only three real drives. In Week 8, he left with injury. In the remaining seven weeks in which he played, Jackson has had over 20% of the team’s targets in five of them. I prefer Jackson to Eli Rogers and both Lions’ receivers, and I’m trying to fit him in where possible.
3) Pay up at running back. As mentioned above, Le’Veon Bell is game flow independent, and however it flows, the Colts are a leaky. They are a bottom five unit as far as yards per rush allowed, and they lead the NFL with 5 receiving touchdowns allowed to running backs.
Ezekiel Elliott has an even easier matchup, as the Redskins allow the second-most yards per carry. That leaves them sitting at seventh in terms of most rush yards per game allowed to running backs and in fifth place for most rush touchdowns per game allowed to running backs. If you’re considering fading Elliott, let me suggest this. Close your eyes. Imagine a week where the Cowboys are not featuring Elliott. Imagine what that would look like. See the picture. Now open your eyes.
You were imagining their bye week, weren’t you? Me too.
4) Utilize the tight end. If you follow my advice on the two big backs, you’re going to need to get some production on the cheap. Look no further than the tight end position. After Jordan Reed, the next three players are all viable, both for your TE and FLEX slots.
Jason Witten – $3,200 – My favorite of the trio thanks to mainly due to price, Witten’s last three weeks encapsulate what he is. He followed up a monster 30-point Week 9 with modest 6-for-59-on-8 and 5-for-37-on-7 games. Safe volume, with 30-point upside.
Eric Ebron – $4,000 – Since coming back from injury, Ebron has hit 70 yards receiving in all three games, has had target totals of ten, eight, and five, and he even got a tricky little rushing score last week. The way to attack the Vikings is with the tight end, which could funnel more volume his way this week.
Kyle Rudolph – $3,700 – Detroit’s defense is basically a tight end groupie. They let them score, basically no matter what. Ten games, nine scores. It is worth noting that the Lions defense, as a whole, has been stiffening, and they’ve allowed more than 43 yards receiving to a tight end only once since Week 2. The upside for Rudolph is TD-dependent, so playing him is a bet on the Vikings moving the ball. If you’re going to play him, consider stacking him with other Vikings offensive pieces in tournaments.
5) Quarterback – Given game flow issues and salary restraints, I’m likely not going to make it up to Big Ben’s $7,300, though he becomes a pretty nice contrarian play. I’m looking at the two signal callers in the vegas-projected highest scoring game of the day, Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. Only $400 separates them, and they have equally appealing matchups.
The case for Dak is that Norman likely shadows Dez, and playing Dak covers you for all the other possible options he could utilize, rather than trying to guess at them individually. The case against him is that his best receiving option could be shadowed by one of the better corners in the league.
The case for Cousins is that no one is hotter than him right now, logging three 300-yard games in the last four, with one of them being a 458-yard explosion. Also, the Cowboys will be without starting safety, Barry Church and cornerback, Morris Claiborne, which improves an already easy matchup. The case against Cousins is probably his ownership, likely the highest QB on the slate, and the fact that he’s coming off a Sunday night game and travelling on a short week.
Either are fine, but I’m likely playing Cousins.
6) For tournaments, there are a couple other players I’m considering. If Norman is on Bryant for most of the game, it should free up Cole Beasley. Like Dallas, Washington has been generous to slot guys, including 84 yards to Randall Cobb, a monster day to Stefon Diggs, a score to Anquan Boldin, 75 yards to Jordan Matthews, 73-and-1 to Sterling Shepard and 5-for-75 to Cole Beasley in their first meeting.
As a complete punt, the Steelers are down to three willing-and-able wide receivers, and they run a lot of three receiver sets. Cobi Hamilton got five targets last week, and to the extent that Vontae Davis is able to deter targets from Antonio Brown, there should be plenty for Hamilton.
Editor’s Note: ESPN’s Adam Schefter is reporting that Stefon Diggs is OUT for Week 12.
As of this writing, Stefon Diggs looks unlikely to play. If that’s the case, there is extreme value in Adam Thielen for $4,000, Cordarrelle Patterson for $3,600 and Jarius Wright for $3,000. Thielen is obviously the best play of the group, but coming off last week, he’ll also be the highest owned. All three are in play. Here is what they did in Week 5, without Diggs.
Thielen – 8 Targets; 7-for-127-1; 68 snaps (92%)
Patterson – 6 Targets; 4-for-39-1; 45 snaps (61%)
Wright – 4 Targets; 4-for-32; 44 snaps (59%)
Now go tell your family you’re thankful to have them in your life. After all, you just have to go with the chalk sometimes!