Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Wednesday, July 22nd
We’re skipping the afternoon games today because they start before this will be posted and it gives us an excuse to do away with Colorado and the double header today, both of which are a bane to daily fantasy baseball. That leaves us with 16 pitchers to talk about and half of them have an ERA over four, so it should be fun.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 5.1 | 3.57 | 6.29 | 1.23 | 1.05 | 3.77 | 5.33 | SEA | 84 | 92 | 101 | 19.8% | 8.4% | 19.8% | 10.1% | 11.3% |
| C.J. Wilson | ANA | 3.6 | 4.14 | 6.1 | 1.38 | 0.91 | 4.04 | 5.28 | MIN | 73 | 88 | 40 | 21.2% | 8.4% | 20.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | -3.4 | 3.68 | 6. | 2.92 | 1.04 | 3.84 | 5.25 | KAN | 109 | 106 | 124 | 15.5% | 8.1% | 21.5% | 10.3% | 8.3% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | -3.4 | 3.52 | 6.11 | 1.28 | 1.01 | 3.39 | 2.96 | BOS | 85 | 98 | 25 | 20.2% | 5.7% | 20.8% | 8.5% | 9.3% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 9.8 | 4.23 | 5.84 | 1.54 | 1.04 | 4.42 | 4.71 | PIT | 90 | 94 | 89 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 20.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% |
| Felix Doubront | TOR | -2.5 | 4.62 | 5.31 | 1.18 | 0.93 | 4.02 | 2.51 | OAK | 106 | 94 | 96 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 20.4% | 9.5% | 13.4% |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | -7.1 | 4.15 | 6.25 | 1.81 | 1.02 | 4.9 | 3.26 | BAL | 92 | 104 | 107 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 21.2% | 12.4% | 8.8% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | -3.1 | 4.38 | 5.6 | 1.95 | 1.01 | 4.28 | HOU | 111 | 104 | 150 | ||||||
| John Danks | CHW | -8.9 | 4.59 | 6. | 1.03 | 1.08 | 4.45 | 4.93 | STL | 95 | 86 | 120 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 19.5% | 9.1% | 8.4% |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 5.2 | 2.28 | 6.58 | 1.59 | 1.09 | 2.13 | 1.92 | ARI | 95 | 94 | 87 | 26.5% | 6.1% | 20.4% | 7.9% | 6.2% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 7.7 | 3.76 | 5.57 | 1.15 | 1.02 | 3.94 | 3.86 | NYY | 121 | 107 | 95 | 20.1% | 7.5% | 18.9% | 11.4% | 8.5% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 1.3 | 3.69 | 6.11 | 1.21 | 1.08 | 3.56 | 2.49 | CHW | 77 | 85 | 98 | 23.1% | 7.2% | 21.8% | 12.3% | 10.8% |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | -3.1 | 4.07 | 6.78 | 1.28 | 1.05 | 4.02 | 3.36 | DET | 113 | 115 | 106 | 20.7% | 7.8% | 21.6% | 13.1% | 8.7% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 3.3 | 4.73 | 5.5 | 1.71 | 0.91 | 5.12 | 3.53 | ANA | 106 | 104 | 127 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 18.8% | 12.9% | 11.1% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 2.6 | 4.13 | 5.4 | 0.81 | 1.09 | 4.24 | 3.08 | FLA | 88 | 107 | 104 | 19.4% | 5.9% | 23.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -6.4 | 3.42 | 6.58 | 2.02 | 0.93 | 3.54 | 3.79 | TOR | 99 | 107 | 116 | 19.0% | 8.2% | 17.6% | 12.5% | 10.0% |
Anibal Sanchez has a 13.5 K-BB% that is just above league average, but has been plagued by a 13.6 HR/FB. The career low 1.03 GB/FB makes it more problematic. He’s got a new cutter this year. It’s not good. According to Brooks Baseball, he’s thrown six different pitches at least 90 times this year and opponents have slugged at least .394 on all of them except the sinker with only the slider (which he’s throwing less this year) and the change-up (which he’s throwing less this year) getting more than 10% whiffs. Seattle pounded the stuffing out of a bad starter and bullpen yesterday, but rate as a neutral park adjusted matchup with some power (12.2 HR/FB on the road) and some strikeouts (21.8 K% vs RHP). They hit the ball harder than any other team today (14.7 Hard-Soft%, 15.8% vs RHP).
C.J. Wilson is a league average pitcher in a good park, which keeps his HR rate down at this point in his career. There’s nothing wrong with that, but you shouldn’t expect much more. His ERA estimators this year are all right around his career rates. His walk and strikeout rates are league average as well. He is allowing a bit more authoritative contact this season though (16.8 Hard-Soft%) and has walked just two more than he’s struck out over his last two starts (3.3 K-BB%). He has the top park adjusted matchup tonight. The Twins are tied for the worst road offense in baseball with a 22.0 K% and 7.4 HR/FB. Since the break, they’ve struck out 30.7% of the time with a 5.6 HR/FB.
Collin McHugh has been very mediocre this season due to a reduced strikeout rate, though with a double digit SwStr%, and a BABIP 50 points higher. He’s throwing even fewer fastballs this year (only R.A. Dickey throws less) and the 4th most sliders (39.3%). The slider is getting fewer whiffs and being hit harder this year. Boston has been a bad road team and completely terrible since the break, but strike out only 16.3% vs RHP.
Edinson Volquez has an 8.9 K-BB% nearly identical to his career rate, though both his K% and BB% are much lower, though nearly identical to last year’s marks. His success is predicated on a lower HR rate (7.5 HR/FB), which I think may be sustainable due to his park. Between here and Pittsburgh (another good park) he has a 5.0 HR/FB at home since last season. The Pirates have a 16.6 K-BB% on the road and rate as a slightly favorable park adjusted matchup.
Felix Doubront gets his 3rd straight road start for the Blue Jays. His first was successful against a bad team, while his most recent was a terrible matchup that ended badly vs the Royals. Today he matches up with the A’s, who like the Royals, don’t strike out much (17.0% vs LHP), but walk more often. They don’t hit LHP well and the park mutes their overall offense and power somewhat (7.0 HR/FB at home), but Doubront’s 22.0 Hard-Soft% so far is troubling.
Jose Fernandez hasn’t experienced the same issues as Matt Harvey returning from Tommy John surgery yet and combines a 27.4 K-BB% with a ridiculous -13.7 Hard-Soft%. Also unlike Harvey, he’s been more ground ball heavy in his return, which may help keep his HRs down, along with his large home park, if he does struggle with command eventually. Arizona isn’t as forgiving a park, but only park adjusts a good matchup to a neutral one.
Kevin Gausman got smoked in his last start in Minnesota, but was great in his previous one. His initial start was a mixed bag and now this will be his fourth in a very dangerous environment against the second-best home offense with a 15.7 HR/FB at home and 13.6 HR/FB vs RHP. 18.2 – 10.4
Lance Lynn is great at home where he’s been able to suppress HRs, but more average with a 14.2 K-BB% and 9.9 HR/FB on the road, usually without much of an adjustment in pricing, as is the case today. That might not matter though, because the matchup is just so good, even if the park enhances offense. The White Sox are the worst home offense in baseball and 3rd worst vs RHP with just a 4.7 Hard-Soft% overall on the season.
Robbie Ray hasn’t been bad, but hasn’t been nearly as good as his ERA suggests. Normally, I’d just quote his completely unsustainable HR rate in Arizona (2.9 HR/FB) and be done with it, but with a little more time today, he gets the full treatment because there are some things to point out in light of his 2.29 ERA. The Marlins do have a tendency to strike out more than average, but have a 15.0 HR/FB vs LHP and that’s with half their games in Miami.
Sonny Gray has allowed at least three ERs in four of his last five starts, shortening the gap between his ERA and estimators, though it still exists and we’ll talk about that later. He strikes out a league average rate of batters with a slightly better walk rate. Weak contact (1.1 Hard-Soft%) and a great home park play a part in his success. The park adjusts a dangerous Toronto lineup down to a more neutral one tonight. They have a 13.5 HR/FB vs RHP, but a more reasonable, but still powerful 11.6 HR/FB on the road.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized.
Michael Montgomery (.247 BABIP – 83.6 LOB% – 7.8 HR/FB) – I’m willing to accept the HR rate, which has jumped with four allowed over his last three starts, as a factor of Safeco, but he’s not in Safeco tonight and faces a powerful RH lineup even in the absence of their best hitter. The BABIP and LOB% are not as easily accepted.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Charlie Morton had a 5.46 GB/FB and 67.0 GB% with a 7.7 HR/FB through his first five starts. He has 2.0 GB/FB and 51.8 GB% with an 18.2 HR/FB over his last five starts. He went at least seven innings in four of those first five, but exactly six innings in four of his last five. He’s had a low strikeout rate in both instances and faces the team with the lowest strikeout rate in the majors.
Ivan Nova has just a 4.9 K-BB% through four starts, though his SwStr% is more optimistic. He’s had some HR issues in the past, making tonight’s matchup with the Orioles worrying.
John Danks always seems to shut down your lineup despite having an ERA and estimators well above four. The Cardinals do struggle against LHP (24.0 K%, 0.7 Hard-Soft%), but this is John Danks in a bad park where he’s been a bad pitcher.
Mike Pelfrey is less unplayable if Trout is not in the lineup again, but a strikeout rate approaching single digits is not useful in any daily fantasy situation.
Joe Kelly actually allows a higher HR rate to RHBs in his career (11.6 HR/FB).
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | 21.8% | 6.6% | Home | 20.5% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 15.5% | 12.1% |
| C.J. Wilson | Angels | 19.9% | 9.9% | Home | 19.9% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 11.5% |
| Charlie Morton | Pirates | 17.4% | 8.0% | Road | 17.6% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 12.7% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 21.4% | 5.8% | Home | 23.9% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 1.9% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 17.4% | 8.9% | Home | 16.6% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 11.0% |
| Felix Doubront | Blue Jays | 14.9% | 8.7% | Road | 14.7% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 1.9% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | 15.3% | 7.3% | Home | 9.2% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 15.6% | 9.5% | Road | 15.9% | 10.8% | L14 Days | ||
| John Danks | White Sox | 14.9% | 7.7% | Home | 16.4% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 10.9% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | 32.7% | 6.0% | Road | 32.3% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 2.1% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 20.9% | 7.8% | Road | 20.7% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 4.8% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 22.6% | 8.4% | Road | 23.9% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 4.4% |
| Michael Montgomery | Mariners | 17.6% | 6.5% | Road | 20.4% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 5.8% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 13.2% | 9.1% | Road | 8.0% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 18.2% | 6.4% | Home | 17.7% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 1.9% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 21.5% | 7.6% | Home | 20.3% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 8.3% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | Road | 20.3% | 7.2% | RH | 21.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 19.1% | 8.8% |
| Twins | Road | 22.0% | 6.8% | LH | 19.7% | 7.2% | L7Days | 30.7% | 5.7% |
| Royals | Home | 14.2% | 6.1% | RH | 15.9% | 6.0% | L7Days | 15.1% | 7.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 17.3% | 8.0% | RH | 16.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 22.5% | 4.7% |
| Pirates | Road | 23.0% | 6.4% | RH | 20.4% | 6.8% | L7Days | 28.6% | 6.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 15.4% | 7.3% | LH | 17.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 11.4% | 3.4% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.7% | 6.9% | RH | 22.4% | 7.2% | L7Days | 21.9% | 7.7% |
| Astros | Home | 24.8% | 9.4% | RH | 25.2% | 7.9% | L7Days | 16.4% | 9.9% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.5% | 7.6% | LH | 24.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 18.3% | 8.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 20.9% | 8.1% | RH | 20.4% | 7.8% | L7Days | 21.6% | 6.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.1% | 9.0% | RH | 18.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 22.0% | 7.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.1% | 6.9% | RH | 19.7% | 6.3% | L7Days | 20.7% | 8.6% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.8% | 7.2% | LH | 23.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 21.0% | 7.2% |
| Angels | Home | 20.2% | 7.9% | RH | 19.5% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.3% | 9.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.3% | 6.0% | LH | 21.9% | 6.3% | L7Days | 13.9% | 7.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.0% | 7.7% | RH | 19.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 14.0% | 9.8% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | 19.6% | 7.8% | 11.0% | Home | 20.3% | 8.0% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 5.3% | 21.1% |
| C.J. Wilson | Angels | 22.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | Home | 22.4% | 7.4% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Morton | Pirates | 20.8% | 9.4% | 10.0% | Road | 22.9% | 13.4% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 21.9% | 10.6% | 9.6% | Home | 23.0% | 10.6% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 19.1% | 10.0% | 5.7% | Home | 16.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Felix Doubront | Blue Jays | 21.1% | 10.0% | 10.6% | Road | 26.0% | 5.2% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | 18.0% | 12.2% | 6.5% | Home | 18.3% | 6.1% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 21.5% | 9.1% | 7.2% | Road | 18.4% | 11.8% | 10.5% | L14 Days | |||
| John Danks | White Sox | 20.7% | 11.5% | 8.0% | Home | 19.1% | 10.4% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 0.0% | 6.3% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | 19.1% | 7.9% | 9.9% | Road | 20.7% | 11.8% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 21.2% | 6.6% | 11.4% | Road | 19.4% | 7.7% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 20.7% | 6.9% | 11.2% | Road | 22.8% | 9.9% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| Michael Montgomery | Mariners | 19.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | Road | 21.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 23.1% | 15.4% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 21.4% | 8.3% | 9.9% | Road | 17.9% | 11.5% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 23.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | Home | 23.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 0.0% | 7.1% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 17.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | Home | 18.5% | 9.9% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 14.5% | 12.5% | 6.3% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | Road | 17.5% | 12.2% | 8.3% | RH | 19.6% | 11.5% | 7.3% | L7Days | 19.1% | 15.6% | 6.7% |
| Twins | Road | 19.1% | 7.4% | 11.2% | LH | 19.3% | 9.6% | 9.6% | L7Days | 12.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% |
| Royals | Home | 21.5% | 7.5% | 9.0% | RH | 21.7% | 8.9% | 9.9% | L7Days | 21.1% | 12.3% | 8.8% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.5% | 8.8% | 12.4% | RH | 20.3% | 9.5% | 11.9% | L7Days | 22.8% | 2.1% | 4.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | RH | 20.9% | 8.9% | 7.2% | L7Days | 22.0% | 5.7% | 14.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 20.1% | 7.0% | 12.0% | LH | 18.7% | 7.9% | 11.9% | L7Days | 22.0% | 12.8% | 21.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 21.3% | 10.8% | 10.3% | RH | 21.4% | 14.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 27.5% | 10.7% | 17.9% |
| Astros | Home | 18.8% | 18.0% | 9.8% | RH | 20.2% | 15.2% | 11.1% | L7Days | 25.0% | 13.9% | 2.8% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.2% | 11.4% | 11.1% | LH | 19.9% | 9.6% | 11.1% | L7Days | 14.9% | 11.5% | 5.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.3% | 10.5% | 7.7% | RH | 21.2% | 10.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.9% | 6.8% | 4.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 20.0% | 15.7% | 9.9% | RH | 21.2% | 13.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 18.4% | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.3% | 10.8% | 9.6% | RH | 21.5% | 10.0% | 10.8% | L7Days | 20.6% | 18.2% | 3.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.6% | 9.9% | 9.9% | LH | 23.8% | 11.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 24.4% | 17.8% | 4.4% |
| Angels | Home | 21.1% | 12.6% | 10.8% | RH | 20.2% | 12.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 19.8% | 20.0% | 14.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 22.2% | 12.7% | 7.6% | LH | 21.1% | 15.0% | 7.1% | L7Days | 18.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 18.8% | 11.6% | 14.7% | RH | 18.6% | 13.5% | 13.5% | L7Days | 17.8% | 19.0% | 9.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.07 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 21.1% | 9.4% | 2.24 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 1.99 |
| C.J. Wilson | ANA | 20.0% | 8.9% | 2.25 | 15.9% | 9.9% | 1.61 |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 12.9% | 6.2% | 2.08 | 14.3% | 5.7% | 2.51 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 18.7% | 10.4% | 1.80 | 17.7% | 9.9% | 1.79 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 17.5% | 9.8% | 1.79 | 17.2% | 7.9% | 2.18 |
| Felix Doubront | TOR | 14.8% | 8.5% | 1.74 | 14.8% | 8.5% | 1.74 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 11.9% | 8.4% | 1.42 | 11.9% | 8.4% | 1.42 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 18.0% | 7.0% | 2.57 | 10.5% | 5.8% | 1.81 |
| John Danks | CHW | 15.9% | 8.7% | 1.83 | 15.2% | 8.9% | 1.71 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 28.8% | 15.4% | 1.87 | 28.8% | 15.4% | 1.87 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 21.2% | 10.8% | 1.96 | 24.4% | 12.5% | 1.95 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 25.7% | 9.4% | 2.73 | 27.9% | 8.3% | 3.36 |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | 17.6% | 8.5% | 2.07 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 2.32 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 11.6% | 5.4% | 2.15 | 12.2% | 5.8% | 2.10 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 20.8% | 7.3% | 2.85 | 22.8% | 6.7% | 3.40 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 22.1% | 9.5% | 2.33 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.72 |
C.J. Wilson has seen a drop in his K% over the last month that shouldn’t worry you because his SwStr% has actually shot up a point.
Lance Lynn is probably not a pitcher who strikes out a quarter of his batters going forward. His SwStr has bounced back over 9% in his last two starts at least.
Robbie Ray – The Arizona catchers have been terrible pitch framers, so that’s not the reason he’s been able to strikeout a league average rate of batters with a well below average SwStr%. Before a double digit effort in his last start, his SwStr had been below 7% in each of his previous three starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.83 ERA – 3.76 SIERA – 3.83 xFIP – 3.83 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 4.55 | 3.85 | -0.7 | 3.84 | -0.71 | 4.26 | -0.29 | 4.28 | 4.46 | 0.18 | 4.34 | 0.06 | 5.08 | 0.8 |
| C.J. Wilson | ANA | 3.59 | 3.99 | 0.4 | 4.01 | 0.42 | 3.76 | 0.17 | 4.2 | 4.86 | 0.66 | 4.89 | 0.69 | 4.66 | 0.46 |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 4.34 | 3.99 | -0.35 | 3.99 | -0.35 | 4.27 | -0.07 | 8.03 | 4.55 | -3.48 | 4.75 | -3.28 | 5.61 | -2.42 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 4.35 | 3.79 | -0.56 | 3.85 | -0.5 | 3.87 | -0.48 | 2.62 | 3.65 | 1.03 | 3.6 | 0.98 | 2.59 | -0.03 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 3.28 | 4.23 | 0.95 | 4.14 | 0.86 | 3.74 | 0.46 | 3.14 | 4.07 | 0.93 | 4.01 | 0.87 | 4.11 | 0.97 |
| Felix Doubront | TOR | 4.5 | 2.54 | -1.96 | 3 | -1.5 | 3.13 | -1.37 | 4.5 | 2.55 | -1.95 | 3 | -1.5 | 3.13 | -1.37 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 3.42 | 4.73 | 1.31 | 4.58 | 1.16 | 4.58 | 1.16 | 3.42 | 4.73 | 1.31 | 4.58 | 1.16 | 4.58 | 1.16 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 5.67 | 4.24 | -1.43 | 4.06 | -1.61 | 4.13 | -1.54 | 12.27 | 5.53 | -6.74 | 4.75 | -7.52 | 7.15 | -5.12 |
| John Danks | CHW | 4.98 | 4.48 | -0.5 | 4.53 | -0.45 | 4.48 | -0.5 | 4.37 | 4.79 | 0.42 | 4.95 | 0.58 | 4.52 | 0.15 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 2.37 | 1.99 | -0.38 | 1.81 | -0.56 | 1.69 | -0.68 | 2.37 | 1.99 | -0.38 | 1.81 | -0.56 | 1.69 | -0.68 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 5 | 3.7 | -1.3 | 4.34 | -0.66 | 3.87 | -1.13 | 6.3 | 3.26 | -3.04 | 3.59 | -2.71 | 3.36 | -2.94 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 2.79 | 3.32 | 0.53 | 3.3 | 0.51 | 2.78 | -0.01 | 2.1 | 3.16 | 1.06 | 3.19 | 1.09 | 2.66 | 0.56 |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | 2.51 | 4.07 | 1.56 | 4.05 | 1.54 | 3.65 | 1.14 | 2.34 | 3.36 | 1.02 | 3.43 | 1.09 | 3.72 | 1.38 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 4 | 4.49 | 0.49 | 4.39 | 0.39 | 4.04 | 0.04 | 7.97 | 4.39 | -3.58 | 4.24 | -3.73 | 3.85 | -4.12 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 2.29 | 3.75 | 1.46 | 3.82 | 1.53 | 2.57 | 0.28 | 2.92 | 3.35 | 0.43 | 3.48 | 0.56 | 1.56 | -1.36 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 2.29 | 3.33 | 1.04 | 3.34 | 1.05 | 2.84 | 0.55 | 3.54 | 3.5 | -0.04 | 3.44 | -0.1 | 3.74 | 0.2 |
Anibal Sanchez – Obviously, the BABIP is not the problem. He’s getting a ton of pop ups with a league average line drive rate and just a 25.3 Hard%. The issue has been that a lot of those hard hit balls are flying out of the park. His 13.6 HR/FB is by far his highest in any season where he’s pitched at least 100 innings. You can add his HR/FB rates together for the previous two seasons and it wouldn’t equal this year’s. As mentioned earlier, the fact that he’s allowing more fly balls compounds the issue. This seems to be a different pitcher and not for the better.
Edinson Volquez has a 7.5 HR/FB this year that might be sustainable due to his park. The OF defense in KC is perfect for his fly ball tendencies as well. The concerning issue is that he’s being hit harder than ever (17.7 Hard-Soft%). I expect him to trend at least towards his FIP.
Felix Doubront has a 9.7 BB% for his career, but has walked just one of 61 batters this year. Part of that’s the competition he’s faced, but is still a stunning improvement. His strikeout rate is 5 points lower than his career rate, but the SwStr% is encouragingly at his career mark above 8%, but it’s just two games in which his batted ball profile is completely different than his normal approach with 66% of his balls on the ground. A lot of them have been hit hard though.
Kevin Gausman has just a 61 LOB% that’s been just 56.1% through three starts. The sample size is obviously small, but not bad overall, though inconsistent.
Lance Lynn – It might make sense to rely on his FIP at home, but xFIP/SIERA on the road. He’s allowed five or more runs in four starts (actually two or more runs in four starts) and three of those were on the road.
Robbie Ray has been an average pitcher by his non-FIP estimators, but potentially worse than that when and if his K% regresses to his SwStr rate. The reason for his FIP and ERA being much lower is a 2.9 HR/FB. Not only is that unsustainable in any park, much less Arizona, but he’s doing all this with a 27.8 Hard-Soft%. Some pitchers, like Lance Lynn give you enough reason to at least buy into their FIP in the right spots (generally a good home park) and even Edinson Volquez can fall into that category sometimes, but this is more difficult to accept.
Sonny Gray has seen the gap between his ERA and estimators narrow over the last month. Strangely, he’s allowed five of his seven HRs at home and four in his last four home starts, including two in his last. He still has a 6.3 HR/FB for the season. The BABIP is a little trickier. He had a .277 BABIP coming into the season and while he’s increased his pop up rate, a 13.9 LD% is the amazing thing and while that’s not something we can count on continuing the great contact authority management mentioned above (1.1 Hard-Soft%) is a giant factor in his success. Though the defense hasn’t been good overall, they’ve done a great job suppressing BABIP. Overall, I think he has exhibited some ability in addition to his current situation that may allow him to sustain an ERA lower than his estimators, but as pretty much every pitcher besides Chris Young as proven, even the largest gaps tend to be about half a run over the long term.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.3 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 0.301 | 0.264 | -0.037 | 13.6% | 85.6% |
| C.J. Wilson | ANA | 0.276 | 0.274 | -0.002 | 9.6% | 88.5% |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 0.297 | 0.277 | -0.02 | 8.6% | 92.6% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.282 | 0.310 | 0.028 | 8.5% | 86.6% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 0.280 | 0.273 | -0.007 | 3.7% | 87.0% |
| Felix Doubront | TOR | 0.288 | 0.367 | 0.079 | 12.5% | 93.6% |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 0.302 | 0.278 | -0.024 | 10.7% | 91.2% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 0.303 | 0.313 | 0.01 | 5.6% | 92.3% |
| John Danks | CHW | 0.317 | 0.316 | -0.001 | 9.7% | 85.2% |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 0.288 | 0.320 | 0.032 | 9.1% | 84.1% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.289 | 0.291 | 0.002 | 16.2% | 87.6% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.292 | 0.314 | 0.022 | 11.5% | 86.3% |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | 0.288 | 0.247 | -0.041 | 6.3% | 89.9% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 0.297 | 0.321 | 0.024 | 6.2% | 93.1% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.293 | 0.281 | -0.012 | 7.4% | 89.2% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.277 | 0.246 | -0.031 | 11.7% | 87.7% |
Collin McHugh has seen a 50 point increase in his BABIP this year despite nearly a 6 point drop in LD% that shows up in his ground ball rate. He’s generating fewer pop ups, but not that many fewer. The truth probably lies somewhere in between his rates this year and last.
Jose Fernandez somehow has a 24.0 LD% with just a 17.6 Hard%. Is there such a thing as a soft line drive?
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Jose Fernandez (1) is far and away the top guy tonight. I’m projecting him to strike out over a quarter of the batters he faces and only have one other pitcher much above average (Lance Lynn). He moves into a tougher offensive environment today, but there aren’t many batters he has to worry a lot about in that lineup.
Value Tier Two
Collin McHugh (2) may be facing a team that is tough to strike out tonight, but he has sustained a double digit SwStr% despite a reduced K% and Boston is a mess. It’s a great matchup that gets little park adjustment from a run prevention standpoint, if not a strikeout one.
Value Tier Three
Kevin Gausman would be my super contrarian dumpster diving option tonight. He could get smashed in Yankee Stadium, but I think he’s shown enough to be more than the minimum price. He has the ability to miss bats (12.5 SwStr% over his last two starts) and has been better than an ERA that has been bloated due to a low strand rate.
Value Tier Four
Lance Lynn (3) may be just a tad above average on the road and have a strikeout rate that is still primed for regression, but he’s facing the worst home offense in baseball. I’d expect him to generate a higher K% than anyone not named Fernandez tonight.
Felix Doubront is dumpster diving option number two. He’s projected for potentially the lowest K% tonight, but seems to have improved his control and should keep the ball in the park against a team that has trouble hitting for power in a big home park. The shift to a massive ground ball rate is interesting too, even if they’re hit hard. It’s a small sample size for sure, but might be enough to take a chance with on the short slate at the minimum or near minimum cost.
Value Tier Five – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
C.J. Wilson is a mediocre pitcher with the top park adjusted matchup tonight, but comes at a slightly higher than average price tag.
Sonny Gray (4)
There’s a little more of a gap before the next two as I think the above three are probably more useable if necessary.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.