Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Wednesday, July 29th
It seems Kershaw has been scratched after I had written an entire opening paragraph about him and was nearly done with the article. Unfortunately, I’ve just about finished writing today’s article when I got the news, so I’ll leave him in there just so you can marvel at what today could have been. I have been able to quickly add Mike Bolsinger to today’s equation though.
We’re skipping the early games today and covering just the nine evening contests as is the norm on Wednesdays.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | -0.5 | 4.26 | 5.71 | 1.15 | 0.98 | 4.18 | 3.96 | STL | 100 | 102 | 70 | 17.8% | 7.4% | 21.9% | 9.1% | 10.7% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 4.9 | 3.75 | 6.24 | 1 | 0.88 | 3.59 | 4.14 | SDG | 83 | 86 | 63 | 20.7% | 5.2% | 20.9% | 8.6% | 9.4% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 7.7 | 4.16 | 6.03 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 4.19 | 3.59 | ATL | 86 | 90 | 45 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 19.5% | 6.4% | 9.6% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 4 | 2.21 | 7.14 | 1.88 | 0.89 | 1.71 | 0.59 | OAK | 90 | 91 | 57 | 27.4% | 5.0% | 18.7% | 6.8% | 8.8% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 3.4 | 4.15 | 6.04 | 0.75 | 1.08 | 4.37 | 2.62 | NYY | 97 | 107 | 150 | 19.4% | 6.3% | 20.6% | 11.5% | 8.7% |
| Doug Fister | WAS | -2.6 | 4.08 | 6.33 | 1.47 | 1.01 | 4.39 | 4.41 | FLA | 89 | 81 | 76 | 16.5% | 5.7% | 21.0% | 9.5% | 6.6% |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 3.6 | 3.58 | 6.35 | 1.96 | 1.01 | 3.36 | 3.88 | HOU | 116 | 106 | 129 | 21.4% | 7.5% | 19.0% | 11.5% | 9.0% |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | -6.2 | 4.27 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 1.05 | 4.56 | 3.66 | TOR | 125 | 106 | 100 | 16.0% | 7.8% | 19.7% | 16.6% | 11.2% |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | -6.4 | 3.62 | 6.01 | 1.16 | 0.89 | 3.75 | 3.59 | LOS | 118 | 111 | 74 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 23.1% | 10.1% | 11.6% |
| John Lackey | STL | 1.3 | 3.8 | 6.54 | 1.26 | 0.98 | 3.36 | 4.07 | CIN | 86 | 96 | 120 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 21.4% | 8.6% | 10.7% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | -8.9 | 3.5 | 6.28 | 1.35 | 1.07 | 3.48 | 2.82 | BOS | 103 | 84 | 102 | 18.8% | 5.9% | 21.7% | 7.7% | 9.3% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | -3.4 | 3.48 | 5.76 | 1.49 | 1.01 | 3.8 | 5.86 | ANA | 100 | 104 | 113 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 19.3% | 10.2% | 11.5% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | -7.1 | 2.82 | 6.61 | 1.45 | 1.08 | 2.56 | 3.09 | TEX | 92 | 100 | 83 | 22.3% | 6.3% | 18.3% | 13.6% | 9.3% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | -3.7 | 4.04 | 5.78 | 0.69 | 1.04 | 3.99 | BAL | 108 | 102 | 73 | ||||||
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | -2.5 | 4.22 | 6.49 | 1.11 | 1.05 | 4.15 | 3.62 | PHI | 87 | 81 | 137 | 19.3% | 6.3% | 19.7% | 8.0% | 10.0% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | -3.1 | 3.79 | 6.28 | 1.6 | 1.07 | 3.64 | 3.55 | CHW | 89 | 87 | 138 | 20.4% | 5.8% | 24.3% | 13.0% | 7.8% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 5.2 | 4.34 | 5.9 | 1.23 | 1.01 | 3.91 | 4.25 | WAS | 102 | 98 | 106 | 20.4% | 9.4% | 20.3% | 9.2% | 8.7% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | -10.7 | 3.14 | 6.13 | 2.81 | 0.88 | 3.34 | 1.92 | NYM | 102 | 90 | 96 | 22.8% | 7.3% | 21.7% | 9.5% | 10.8% |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 4 | 3.48 | 5.55 | 2.12 | 0.89 | 2.96 | 4.57 | OAK | 90 | 99 | 57 | 18.6% | 6.8% | 19.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% |
Bartolo Colon has a career high 15.7 K-BB% and his highest K rate (18.5%) since 2011. He’s a strike thrower and though he’s been a bit inconsistent this year, three of his last four starts have been good. The downside, when he can’t hit or get those calls on the corner or just off the plate, may be disastrous, but when he’s on, he can be very good. That’s why the umpire and opposing matchup are so important for him. The matchup we can speak of now. He just happens to have the top park adjusted matchup tonight against the 3rd worst road offense and 3rd worst offense vs RHP (15.6 K-BB%) with a 19.9 K-BB% over the last week. Colon has a 16.9 K-BB% at home as a Met.
Chris Tillman has allowed a total of five ERs over his last five starts, but has just a 9.8 K-BB% at home since last season. Though he’s been missing more bats and generally been pitching much better over the last month, Atlanta will hurt his strikeout potential and, therefore, his upside. What he still has in his favor is strong contact management skills with a 5.9 Hard-Soft% this year and 6.9 HR/FB at home since last season. A strong defense behind him helps turn a lot of those weakly hit balls that stay in the park into outs. Atlanta is a terrible road team that has been ice cold over the last week. They don’t often strike out (17.6% vs RHP), but don’t hit the ball hard either (5.0 Hard-Soft% this season, -4.8 Hard-Soft% over the last week, 7.4 HR/FB vs RHP) and remain a great overall matchup even after a positive park adjustment.
Clayton Kershaw (SCRATCHED) hasn’t allowed a run in any of his last three starts with a combined 38 strikeouts in 26 innings without a single walk. He has a 30.1 K-BB% at home since last season. Oakland has just a 16.8 K%, but also a 7.7 HR/FB vs LHP. Over the last week, they have 3.8 HR/FB and -6.6 Hard-Soft%. They park adjust down to the second best matchup tonight.
Doug Fister is a low upside pitcher with his 6.4 K-BB% and has allowed exactly four ERs in three of his last four starts, though he did strike out a season-high six in his last start. So, he doesn’t miss bats and his 14.4 Hard-Soft% is the highest of his career since his rookie season. Why are we even talking about him then? The Miami Marlins have the worst offense in baseball against RHP or tied for at least with a 6.7 Hard-Soft% against them. With little park adjustment, they rate as one of the better matchups tonight.
Garrett Richards has seen a 5.9 drop in K% this season along with his HR rate somewhat normalizing from a 3.9 HR/FB last year to an 8.7 HR/FB this year. That’s been the difference. He’s maintained a low 4.0 Hard-Soft% and a BABIP in the .260’s. He’s throwing a few more cutters according to PitchF/X, but has essentially the same SwStr rate. We’re going to talk about that below. He’s thrown at least 7.2 innings in four of his last five starts. Houston is one of the better offenses in baseball at home (18.6 HR/FB) and vs RHP (15.0 HR/FB), but do strike out nearly a quarter of the time in both spots.
Jesse Chavez has allowed between three and five ERs in seven of his last nine starts with his last start being one of his worst (four ERs in three innings). He’s been altogether pretty average though both this season and over the past two calendar years by his ERA estimators with nearly average K and BB rates. The Dodgers are now the third-best offense at home (13.9 HR/FB) and 2nd best against RHP (14.5 HR/FB), but have been cold, with a 25.1 K% over the last week. Factoring in the park, which is a pitching favorable environment, they represent something of a neutral opponent. Chavez has been about league average on the road as well since last season.
John Lackey has a 16.2 K-BB% and 5.4 HR/FB at home since last season, mostly as a Cardinal now. That seems to be the Cardinal way, pitch decently at home and limit HRs. His overall K% has been something a bit less this season and even more discouraging over the last month, but he is running a string of eight consecutive starts with two ERs or fewer with fewer than seven innings just once (6.2 IP). He’s reached six strikeouts just twice in that span, though. The Reds are a bad road offense though otherwise rate as neutral here. They do tend to struggle in parks that limit the power in their lineup, though.
R.A. Dickey doesn’t just get the mention due to the Phillies, he’s pitched well over his last three starts (21.1 IP – 5 ER – 4 BB – 16 K). He may not be what he once was and is still having a rough year, but it’s been much better lately with some more positivity in his SwStr%. The Phillies have been hitting well, but are one of the worst offenses vs RHP in baseball (7.5 HR/FB, 6.5 Hard-Soft%), while Dickey has remained difficult to square up consistently (5.4 Hard-Soft% this season).
Rick Porcello has been one of many disappointments in Boston this year, but the underlying numbers suggest something different and he’s coming off one of his stronger starts this season against his old team. His 13.2 K-BB% is the 2nd highest mark of his career, along with his 18.5 K%. A career high 14.6 HR/FB is the problem and it was a problem the last time he had a higher K% too (2013). It’s about the matchup today though. The White Sox have been hitting the ball better and have a 20.0 HR/FB over the last week, but also a 25.1 K%. They have a league average K% both on the road and vs RHP with a 5.2 Hard-Soft% on the season and are one of the worst offenses in the majors vs RHP. Strangely, Porcello has allowed just one HR over his last seven home starts.
Tyson Ross stands in Kershaw’s shadow tonight, though as a solid number two as along as he doesn’t get himself traded before the game starts. He’s only pitched seven innings or more in three of 21 starts this year, but has gone 6.2 IP in two of his last three. It’s still all tons of sliders and ground balls with nasty stuff and a high strikeout rate. He has an overall 2.1 Hard-Soft% this season. Walks, especially to LHBs (12.9% this year), have been his biggest issue. The Mets represent a great park adjusted matchup with just an 8.4 HR/FB at home. They will be able to match up a nearly entire LH lineup against him now though.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Lance McCullers (.279 BABIP – 76.4 LOB% – 5.1 HR/FB) – Though I hate to put him here, he’s walked at least three in five of his six starts and exactly three in four of them with a total of five strikeouts in two of his last three as minor league control issues are showing up again after not really appearing much in his first few starts. That’s more of a problem when your strikeout rate is down and it is over the last month with his SwStr% even more depressed. It’s not just league average for the season. His low ERA is now being backed by an unsustainable HR/FB and he faces a good offensive team today. They may be without Mike Trout, which is a huge blow, but have reinforced the OF with some decent LHBs.
Tom Koehler (.252 BABIP – 75.6 LOB% – 11.0 HR/FB) – Washington is also fully loaded offensively for what seems like the first time this season, although Denard Span may still be out.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 17.2% | 7.6% | Road | 18.4% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 3.9% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 18.2% | 3.5% | Home | 19.7% | 2.8% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 5.8% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 18.5% | 7.9% | Home | 17.5% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 7.7% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 31.5% | 4.7% | Home | 34.8% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 44.6% | 0.0% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 17.8% | 5.7% | Home | 17.5% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 29.1% | 1.8% |
| Doug Fister | Nationals | 14.6% | 4.7% | Road | 11.8% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 6.0% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 20.5% | 7.7% | Road | 22.5% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 18.3% | 6.7% |
| Jerome Williams | Phillies | 15.0% | 6.8% | Road | 12.2% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 4.0% |
| Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 21.8% | 7.5% | Road | 21.6% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 7.1% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 18.8% | 5.6% | Home | 21.2% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 5.1% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 21.3% | 5.9% | Road | 20.5% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 1.7% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | 25.5% | 9.4% | Home | 24.7% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 12.5% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 25.6% | 4.2% | Road | 25.1% | 3.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 3.6% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 19.8% | 7.5% | Road | 20.9% | 7.0% | L14 Days | ||
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | 17.8% | 7.8% | Home | 19.2% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 3.7% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 17.3% | 5.4% | Home | 16.7% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 6.3% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 17.7% | 9.1% | Home | 19.6% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 11.8% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 25.0% | 9.2% | Road | 22.7% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 4.0% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Dodgers | 21.3% | 7.8% | Home | 22.1% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 7.1% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | Home | 18.8% | 8.6% | RH | 18.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 16.3% | 7.9% |
| Padres | Road | 22.0% | 7.5% | RH | 22.1% | 6.5% | L7Days | 25.0% | 5.1% |
| Braves | Road | 18.2% | 7.1% | RH | 17.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 18.1% | 5.6% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.2% | 7.8% | LH | 16.8% | 8.7% | L7Days | 17.2% | 5.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.3% | 7.9% | RH | 18.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 15.1% | 8.4% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.5% | 6.8% | RH | 20.1% | 6.3% | L7Days | 19.0% | 6.5% |
| Astros | Home | 24.5% | 9.4% | RH | 24.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 17.6% | 6.0% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 16.0% | 9.7% | RH | 19.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 17.6% | 9.9% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.0% | 8.5% | RH | 20.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 25.1% | 5.7% |
| Reds | Road | 19.3% | 7.3% | RH | 18.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 19.9% | 9.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.9% | 7.7% | LH | 19.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 13.9% | 5.5% |
| Angels | Road | 18.2% | 7.6% | RH | 19.4% | 7.4% | L7Days | 18.4% | 7.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.0% | 8.4% | RH | 19.5% | 7.9% | L7Days | 19.7% | 10.5% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.0% | 6.9% | RH | 22.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 24.1% | 5.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.5% | 5.8% | RH | 19.2% | 5.9% | L7Days | 20.4% | 5.8% |
| White Sox | Road | 20.0% | 5.5% | RH | 20.3% | 6.3% | L7Days | 25.2% | 6.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.4% | 8.4% | RH | 21.0% | 8.1% | L7Days | 22.9% | 11.3% |
| Mets | Home | 19.6% | 8.2% | RH | 20.0% | 7.3% | L7Days | 21.3% | 5.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.2% | 7.8% | RH | 17.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 17.2% | 5.1% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 21.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | Road | 20.8% | 5.0% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 18.8% | 12.5% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 21.9% | 8.9% | 7.6% | Home | 20.4% | 8.5% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 19.7% | 9.2% | 9.9% | Home | 20.6% | 6.9% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 0.0% | 7.7% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 21.5% | 8.2% | 12.3% | Home | 21.2% | 10.9% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 10.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 20.8% | 9.2% | 9.5% | Home | 20.2% | 9.1% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| Doug Fister | Nationals | 20.3% | 9.5% | 5.5% | Road | 18.5% | 12.5% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 19.2% | 7.0% | 9.9% | Road | 18.5% | 7.8% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Jerome Williams | Phillies | 23.3% | 13.1% | 7.3% | Road | 22.8% | 10.8% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 22.6% | 8.9% | 11.0% | Road | 21.1% | 11.6% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 20.5% | 9.9% | 12.4% | Home | 22.5% | 5.4% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 22.5% | 7.4% | 8.6% | Road | 22.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | 18.8% | 5.1% | 11.9% | Home | 16.5% | 5.9% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 21.6% | 15.7% | 9.9% | Road | 22.5% | 12.7% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 26.3% | 10.5% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 22.9% | 10.2% | 13.9% | Road | 24.8% | 11.5% | 17.3% | L14 Days | |||
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | 20.2% | 11.0% | 12.4% | Home | 20.3% | 13.9% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 22.3% | 11.8% | 8.0% | Home | 21.5% | 10.9% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 18.7% | 8.8% | 7.3% | Home | 18.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 19.7% | 9.3% | 6.0% | Road | 22.1% | 13.2% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Dodgers | 18.9% | 9.7% | 3.9% | Home | 16.6% | 11.4% | 2.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | Home | 22.0% | 7.4% | 9.5% | RH | 22.2% | 9.2% | 10.1% | L7Days | 22.0% | 5.9% | 13.2% |
| Padres | Road | 20.1% | 8.4% | 9.9% | RH | 19.0% | 9.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 17.6% | 8.5% | 13.6% |
| Braves | Road | 22.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | RH | 22.0% | 7.4% | 10.0% | L7Days | 17.7% | 7.0% | 11.6% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.1% | 10.3% | 8.2% | LH | 18.7% | 7.7% | 11.7% | L7Days | 19.4% | 3.8% | 9.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 20.6% | 11.1% | 8.9% | RH | 21.3% | 13.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.7% | 15.7% | 8.4% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.8% | 10.1% | 8.6% | RH | 20.5% | 10.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 22.4% | 6.1% | 9.1% |
| Astros | Home | 18.8% | 18.6% | 9.8% | RH | 20.4% | 15.0% | 10.9% | L7Days | 20.9% | 13.4% | 6.0% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.3% | 15.1% | 14.4% | RH | 18.7% | 13.5% | 13.1% | L7Days | 18.8% | 13.8% | 8.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.9% | 13.9% | 8.2% | RH | 21.2% | 14.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 16.1% | 11.8% | 9.8% |
| Reds | Road | 20.2% | 9.0% | 9.8% | RH | 21.2% | 10.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.3% | 8.5% | 10.2% |
| Red Sox | Home | 21.0% | 10.5% | 10.7% | LH | 19.9% | 9.9% | 11.2% | L7Days | 23.5% | 10.3% | 8.6% |
| Angels | Road | 18.5% | 11.8% | 9.1% | RH | 20.5% | 12.1% | 9.8% | L7Days | 25.5% | 9.7% | 12.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.5% | 10.3% | 8.5% | RH | 18.3% | 11.3% | 8.2% | L7Days | 14.0% | 5.0% | 8.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.7% | 15.8% | 8.0% | RH | 21.5% | 14.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 19.8% | 13.5% | 17.6% |
| Phillies | Road | 22.9% | 6.8% | 9.1% | RH | 22.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.4% | 8.7% | 4.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.9% | 9.6% | 10.6% | RH | 21.8% | 10.5% | 10.1% | L7Days | 28.8% | 20.0% | 2.2% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.4% | 13.2% | 10.4% | RH | 21.0% | 12.9% | 9.8% | L7Days | 28.7% | 13.9% | 8.3% |
| Mets | Home | 21.9% | 11.2% | 11.6% | RH | 23.2% | 8.4% | 11.9% | L7Days | 25.0% | 14.6% | 9.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.1% | 10.3% | 8.2% | RH | 21.3% | 8.8% | 9.7% | L7Days | 19.4% | 3.8% | 9.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.07 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 17.0% | 8.8% | 1.93 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.20 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 18.5% | 6.8% | 2.72 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 2.02 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 17.5% | 7.9% | 2.22 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 2.24 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 33.9% | 16.1% | 2.11 | 37.5% | 17.9% | 2.09 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 18.3% | 8.2% | 2.23 | 18.5% | 10.4% | 1.78 |
| Doug Fister | WAS | 11.6% | 5.4% | 2.15 | 12.5% | 5.9% | 2.12 |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 18.3% | 10.6% | 1.73 | 17.1% | 8.9% | 1.92 |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | 12.8% | 8.9% | 1.44 | 16.0% | 12.1% | 1.32 |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 20.5% | 8.9% | 2.30 | 17.5% | 7.5% | 2.33 |
| John Lackey | STL | 17.1% | 8.6% | 1.99 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 2.38 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.08 | 26.6% | 11.2% | 2.38 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 25.5% | 9.6% | 2.66 | 21.9% | 7.8% | 2.81 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 24.9% | 12.5% | 1.99 | 23.6% | 13.0% | 1.82 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 20.9% | 9.1% | 2.30 | 26.7% | 11.9% | 2.24 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 14.6% | 9.5% | 1.54 | 14.9% | 11.4% | 1.31 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 18.6% | 8.7% | 2.14 | 20.7% | 8.7% | 2.38 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 17.1% | 6.6% | 2.59 | 15.8% | 6.1% | 2.59 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 25.2% | 12.7% | 1.98 | 24.8% | 10.9% | 2.28 |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 22.1% | 8.5% | 2.60 | 19.1% | 8.8% | 2.17 |
Bartolo Colon has a K/SwStr that’s now within the normal range. That hasn’t happened this year or in the past few seasons. This is due to a rise in his SwStr% in July. He had a 4.6 SwStr% in his last start. He had a double-digit SwStr% in each of the three prior starts. Previous to that, he had six straight starts with a SwStr below 6%.
Garrett Richards had a 10.8 SwStr% when he struck out 24.2% of his batters last season. This year, the K% has dropped, but the SwStr% has not. He essentially has the same catcher, Chris Iannetta, who ranks second with +14.6 RAA in catcher framing via StatCorner.com. An above average K% the rest of the way would not surprise me.
R.A. Dickey – There’s nothing wrong with his SwStr rate, especially over the last month, but he’s just not finishing the job for some reason. In fact, he’s had a double digit SwStr% in eight of his last 12 starts. There’s definitely upside to something at least much closer to a league average if not better strikeout rate here.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.83 ERA – 3.76 SIERA – 3.83 xFIP – 3.83 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 3.98 | 4.44 | 0.46 | 4.3 | 0.32 | 3.94 | -0.04 | 6.29 | 3.75 | -2.54 | 3.63 | -2.66 | 4.91 | -1.38 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 4.6 | 3.68 | -0.92 | 3.71 | -0.89 | 3.59 | -1.01 | 3.55 | 3.62 | 0.07 | 3.83 | 0.28 | 2.63 | -0.92 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 4.71 | 4.52 | -0.19 | 4.51 | -0.2 | 4.1 | -0.61 | 1.38 | 3.27 | 1.89 | 3.32 | 1.94 | 1.99 | 0.61 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.51 | 2.04 | -0.47 | 1.89 | -0.62 | 2.11 | -0.4 | 0.27 | 1.32 | 1.05 | 1.29 | 1.02 | 0.61 | 0.34 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 4.49 | 4.04 | -0.45 | 4.33 | -0.16 | 3.83 | -0.66 | 5.63 | 3.98 | -1.65 | 4.3 | -1.33 | 5 | -0.63 |
| Doug Fister | WAS | 4.5 | 4.73 | 0.23 | 4.53 | 0.03 | 4.43 | -0.07 | 5.32 | 4.63 | -0.69 | 4.62 | -0.7 | 4.61 | -0.71 |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 3.25 | 3.98 | 0.73 | 3.88 | 0.63 | 3.64 | 0.39 | 2.4 | 3.72 | 1.32 | 3.41 | 1.01 | 3.2 | 0.8 |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | 6.28 | 4.59 | -1.69 | 4.51 | -1.77 | 5.57 | -0.71 | 4.5 | 3.66 | -0.84 | 3.63 | -0.87 | 6.57 | 2.07 |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 3.45 | 3.74 | 0.29 | 3.71 | 0.26 | 3.15 | -0.3 | 5.19 | 4.24 | -0.95 | 4.37 | -0.82 | 3.99 | -1.2 |
| John Lackey | STL | 2.88 | 4.05 | 1.17 | 3.98 | 1.1 | 3.45 | 0.57 | 1.56 | 3.96 | 2.4 | 3.89 | 2.33 | 3.64 | 2.08 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 3.56 | 3.41 | -0.15 | 3.37 | -0.19 | 3.11 | -0.45 | 2.52 | 2.24 | -0.28 | 2.19 | -0.33 | 1.97 | -0.55 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 2.6 | 3.48 | 0.88 | 3.49 | 0.89 | 2.86 | 0.26 | 3.13 | 4.11 | 0.98 | 3.83 | 0.7 | 3.8 | 0.67 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 3.64 | 3.04 | -0.6 | 3.07 | -0.57 | 4.02 | 0.38 | 3.18 | 3.08 | -0.1 | 3.11 | -0.07 | 4.02 | 0.84 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 5.27 | 3.95 | -1.32 | 4.21 | -1.06 | 4.16 | -1.11 | 6.75 | 3.09 | -3.66 | 3.82 | -2.93 | 1.19 | -5.56 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 4.53 | 4.7 | 0.17 | 4.68 | 0.15 | 4.82 | 0.29 | 3.55 | 4.31 | 0.76 | 4.43 | 0.88 | 3.73 | 0.18 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.51 | 3.85 | -1.66 | 3.88 | -1.63 | 4.42 | -1.09 | 5.4 | 3.51 | -1.89 | 3.35 | -2.05 | 5.27 | -0.13 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 3.16 | 4.36 | 1.2 | 4.28 | 1.12 | 4.32 | 1.16 | 1.44 | 4.49 | 3.05 | 4.45 | 3.01 | 3.63 | 2.19 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 3.45 | 3.25 | -0.2 | 3.06 | -0.39 | 2.75 | -0.7 | 3 | 2.78 | -0.22 | 2.7 | -0.3 | 2.18 | -0.82 |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 2.79 | 3.47 | 0.68 | 3.31 | 0.52 | 2.79 | 0 | 2.42 | 3.42 | 1 | 3.3 | 0.88 | 2.23 | -0.19 |
Bartolo Colon may have a little bit of regression in his BABIP since the Mets allow a much lower mark and his career rate is below .300 (.294) with all of his batted ball and contact authority stats in line with his career rates. The 66.1 LOB% suggests he’s bunching his hits. He’s otherwise been a league average pitcher.
Chris Tillman has had a great month, but also hasn’t allowed a HR and has an 84.4 LOB% over his last five starts.
Clayton Kershaw in July: 35.8 K-BB% with a -11.1 Hard-Soft% and 0.61 FIP. I don’t know if I’ve seen a better month in the time I’ve been doing this.
Garrett Richards has a .261 BABIP that is right in line with his .264 mark last year. His defense is great at turning batted balls into outs and he generates a lot of weak contact. I have no problem with the BABIP or his ERA and think it could improve even more, along with his estimators, with an expected rise in strikeout rate.
John Lackey has just a 7.0 HR/FB, but that’s almost standard for St Louis. Even if we go by his FIP, though, he’ll likely have to answer for an 80.3 LOB% sooner or later. He’s been doing a good job of spreading out his hits so far though that doesn’t seem to be something entirely under a pitcher’s control.
Jose Quintana is coming off his best start of the season, a complete-game shutout with eight strikeouts and no walks against Cleveland. He’s been a slightly above average pitcher both on the road and overall the past two years with his 16.0 K-BB% this year now a career high, including a 26.6 K% over the last month. The Red Sox are awful vs LHP (5.4 Hard-Soft%) with a nearly league average K% despite just a 16.9 K% at home. This makes them an overall neutral matchup even with a favorable park adjustment.
Masahiro Tanaka has some strange things going on. He has a 17.9 HR/FB, but an extremely low BABIP when the ball stays in the park. Unfortunately, despite a 17.2 LD%, he doesn’t have any otherwise greatly positive indicators and the defense usually hurts Yankee pitching more than it helps. Although his 8.3 Hard-Soft% is fairly normal, his 21.1 Soft% is one of the higher marks in the league. When he’s not being taken out of the park, which he’s just going to have to live with occasionally in Yankee Stadium and the AL East, he’s generating a substantial amount of weak contact. There should be at least some give in both numbers (HR and BABIP), leaving his ERA essentially where it is.
Rick Porcello has a slightly elevated BABIP but has a .311 career mark. If you thought it would get better leaving Detroit, the Boston defense mocks you. It is what it is. Let’s talk about the HRs, though. In 2013, Porcello had the highest K rate of his career (19.3%). He also had a 14.1 HR/FB that was a career high to that point. He allowed 18 HRs. Last year, both the strikeout and HR rates reverted to career levels, but he once again allowed 18 HRs due to a lower ground ball rate. This year, the Ks and HRs are back up to 2013 levels, but he’s once again allowed 18 HRs (a mark he’s finished the year at in four of the last five years, but will definitely exceed this year). A 1.24 GB/FB is a career low though by a wide margin. I still don’t think he’s worthy of an ERA over five, but at least you can see some of the patterns in play here.
Tyson Ross doesn’t have any discrepancy between his ERA and estimators, but that’s because a 5.5 HR/FB has compensated for a .340 BABIP. He’s allowed just three HRs this season, all in April with two in Colorado and Chicago. He doesn’t generate any pop ups (just two this year), but has one of the highest ground ball rates in the league, misses a lot of bats in the strike zone, and generates a ton of weak contact when it’s made. With a 3.73 GB/FB and normal LD rate, this BABIP seems like a total fluke. He’s not going to go the rest of his life without allowing another HR either though.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.3 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 0.282 | 0.292 | 0.01 | 9.8% | 86.1% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.282 | 0.310 | 0.028 | 7.4% | 89.9% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.287 | 0.303 | 0.016 | 15.4% | 88.1% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.298 | 0.295 | -0.003 | 12.5% | 77.3% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 0.296 | 0.286 | -0.01 | 8.6% | 89.6% |
| Doug Fister | WAS | 0.312 | 0.317 | 0.005 | 2.2% | 91.3% |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 0.279 | 0.261 | -0.018 | 9.7% | 88.6% |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | 0.317 | 0.337 | 0.02 | 8.8% | 90.7% |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 0.281 | 0.308 | 0.027 | 15.3% | 84.7% |
| John Lackey | STL | 0.291 | 0.293 | 0.002 | 11.9% | 89.9% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.314 | 0.336 | 0.022 | 5.1% | 87.3% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.281 | 0.279 | -0.002 | 11.9% | 88.1% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.296 | 0.238 | -0.058 | 9.5% | 86.4% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.304 | 0.367 | 0.063 | 9.2% | 88.9% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 0.289 | 0.263 | -0.026 | 11.7% | 82.3% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.303 | 0.321 | 0.018 | 4.9% | 85.8% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.287 | 0.252 | -0.035 | 7.6% | 90.3% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 0.299 | 0.340 | 0.041 | 3.6% | 84.2% |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 0.298 | 0.292 | -0.006 | 3.4% | 92.0% |
Jesse Chavez had a .341 BABIP in June and a .358 BABIP in July. He has some great indicators (elite IFFB%, strong Z-Contact%) and while the Oakland defense hasn’t been good, they’ve been well-positioned in regards to suppressing BABIP. The LD rate has about 24% since June, which needs improvement, but isn’t outrageous. I’m predicting things to settle down for him eventually.
R.A. Dickey – Knuckleballers, and he, in particular, are known to be difficult to square up and carry lower BABIPs. He has a .282 career BABIP, which he’s been below each of the last six seasons and has the indicators to support it in the BABIP chart.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
This was supposed to be Clayton Kershaw today as the lone dominant option, but just now reading news of his scratch basically cripples today’s options and shifts everyone else around. If it’s Mike Bolsinger, as I’m hearing it might be, he becomes the top target today.
Mike Bolsinger (3) has allowed a total of three ERs over his last four starts. His ERA is closer to his FIP due to an unsustainable 5.1 HR/FB, but he has the ability to miss some bats, the top framer in baseball in Grandal, and a solid park adjust matchup (although Oakland hits RHP a bit better than LHP) at a fairly low price tag.
Value Tier One A
Tyson Ross (1) gets a major bump with Kershaw gone, but now is among three in competition for the top projected strikeout rate tonight. He dominates RHBs with strikeouts and ground balls, but the Mets should be able to throw seven LHBs at him tonight, where he tends to struggle more with control. Your options are what they are today, though.
Value Tier Two
Jesse Chavez has seen his price drop with recent struggles, but those have been mostly BABIP related. This carries some risk obviously, but he’s essentially a league-average pitcher in a league average spot (the Dodgers aren’t the juggernaut they were earlier in the season and play in a pitcher’s park) at a below average price. He has more strikeout potential than a lot of guys today (I have him as fourth now overall).
Bartolo Colon (4) – You obviously want to check your umpire assignment here, but it looks like it might be Dale Scott, who seems to be neutral in terms of fantasy points gained or lost with him behind the plate. Otherwise, with the Kershaw lost, he moves up to a cash game consideration with the top park adjusted matchup tonight.
Value Tier Three – All three of these pitchers would be Tier Four on any other day.
Rick Porcello is priced lower on DraftKings than FanDuel, but is reasonably priced across the board in what should be a solid matchup for him. There’s a good chance a ball leaves the yard, but he seems to be under-valued with the high ERA right now and is coming off one of his stronger starts.
Masahiro Tanaka (2) has the upside in his SwStr% to have a big game here, but is now the most expensive pitcher on the board and comes with tremendous risk of more than one HR against a lineup he could have trouble with. He’s one of three pitchers fighting for the top projected strikeout rate.
Chris Tillman has been pitching as well as he ever has over the last month or so and has a fine overall matchup even in a dangerous park, where he’s somehow been able to suppress HRs. That Braves don’t hit the ball well so that may continue and he still comes at a low cost, but that price is beginning to increase and Atlanta may limit his strikeout potential.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jose Quintana – Boston doesn’t hit LHP and strikes out more against them, but it’s still a below average rate and you have to pay an above average cost for him in a tough park.
Garrett Richards (5) is the 3rd pitcher fighting for the top strikeout spot tonight in my projections but is expensive in an otherwise dangerous spot.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.