Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, July 2nd
Nine games on Monday night, one more during the day (pitcher’s listed). There are some very high end arms going, a few who were supposed to be maybe that when the season started and other assorted pitchers because if there is one very predictable thing about major league baseball, it is that they will not let you hit off a tee. It only seems like the Yankees are doing that occasionally. (Joke number two was going to be about the Mets petitioning the league to allow tees so they wouldn’t be forced to pay relievers.)
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | -5.1 | 3.57 | 5.7 | 50.3% | 0.90 | 3.29 | 3.09 | Pirates | 90 | 101 | 96 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 4.8 | 4.04 | 5.3 | 37.9% | 1.03 | 4.90 | 4.17 | Yankees | 123 | 111 | 117 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 7.2 | 4.24 | 5.2 | 39.9% | 1.04 | 4.14 | 3.72 | Twins | 92 | 88 | 97 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | -1.7 | 4.01 | 6.2 | 51.8% | 1.00 | 3.84 | 4.12 | Diamondbacks | 90 | 81 | 77 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 6.6 | 2.98 | 6.8 | 43.9% | 1.04 | 2.97 | 3.43 | Royals | 82 | 78 | 48 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 4.9 | 4.27 | 5.9 | 39.5% | 1.04 | 4.52 | 4.97 | Indians | 88 | 106 | 92 |
| James Shields | White Sox | -5.9 | 5.07 | 5.8 | 37.9% | 1.04 | 5.31 | 4.60 | Reds | 103 | 95 | 108 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees | 4.5 | 3.58 | 4.7 | 58.1% | 1.03 | 3.43 | 3.03 | Braves | 109 | 96 | 95 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | -0.6 | 4.67 | 5.6 | 52.2% | 1.35 | 4.24 | 4.35 | Giants | 88 | 92 | 112 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | -0.6 | 4.52 | 5.7 | 48.9% | 1.04 | 4.01 | 4.06 | Brewers | 93 | 96 | 99 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | -1.1 | 3.88 | 5.5 | 51.4% | 1.04 | 3.51 | 3.55 | White Sox | 91 | 94 | 111 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | -6.3 | 3.72 | 6.5 | 40.6% | 1.35 | 4.46 | 3.23 | Rockies | 85 | 95 | 75 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | -3.7 | 2.87 | 6.6 | 35.1% | 1.00 | 2.92 | 3.98 | Red Sox | 99 | 116 | 135 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 2.9 | 4.39 | 5.5 | 40.9% | 1.01 | 4.80 | 5.05 | Blue Jays | 103 | 101 | 83 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 0.1 | 4.43 | 5.4 | 46.0% | 0.90 | 3.94 | 2.93 | Marlins | 84 | 87 | 85 |
| Nick Kingham | Pirates | -5.1 | 3.60 | 5.9 | 36.0% | 0.90 | 4.12 | Dodgers | 97 | 106 | 98 | |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 5.4 | 3.99 | 6.4 | 41.3% | 1.00 | 4.26 | 4.34 | Nationals | 94 | 94 | 90 |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 1.6 | 3.47 | 5.6 | 41.5% | 1.00 | 3.74 | 3.59 | Cardinals | 94 | 86 | 92 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | -2.9 | 6.54 | 6.0 | 35.0% | 1.01 | 6.54 | Tigers | 82 | 113 | 83 | |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | -0.3 | 4.70 | 5.0 | 38.5% | 0.90 | 4.78 | 4.21 | Rays | 92 | 105 | 88 |
Alex Wood got through seven innings on 93 pitches last time out, but still has not thrown more than 96 pitches in a game this season, but has been above 90 in three of his last four. League average strikeout (22.3%) and ground ball rates (45.6%)…well, league average almost everything (87.7 mph aEV, .305 xwOBA) makes him essentially a league average pitcher, who gets a park boost from one of the most negative run environments in baseball against a perfectly average offense, which park adjusts to a favorable spot.
Anibal Sanchez was well on his way to another solid start for the Braves before exiting with calf cramps in the fifth, something that shouldn’t linger into this start. He’s been a quality contact generators (84.5 mph aEV, 25% 95+ mph EV, .300 xwOBA) with an above average strikeout rate (23.2%), which is a bit of a surprise considering the home run magnet he’s been the last several years, but it’s not like he was never a quality pitcher. His 42.1 GB% is his highest since 2014. He’s dropped his four-seam usage, but it’s not the sinker that’s gone up in usage. Like another veteran Atlanta pitcher (Brandon McCarthy), he’s embraced the cutter (17%). He’s still throwing the four-seamer (.436 xwOBA) more than any other pitch (28.2%), but his split finger (.255 xwOBA, 39.2 whiff%) and cutter (.229 xwOBA, 18.8 whiff%) now make up 35.2% of his arsenal, which now includes seven pitches according to Statcast. He’s been better able to navigate same-handed batters (.263 wOBA, two HRs), who have given him so much trouble in recent seasons. He certainly has his work cut out for him tonight. I won’t say it’s worse than Coors, but Yankee Stadium against the home team is the equivalent of facing a below average offense at Coors. The Yankees have a 19.1 HR/FB at home, 16.5 HR/FB vs RHP and 20.3 HR/FB over the last week. Perhaps he catches them on a bit of a letdown after a bit weekend series with the Red Sox.
Carlos Martinez had his first strong start back from the DL (6 IP – 2 ER – 0 HR – 1 BB – 8 K – 25 BF) against Cleveland of all offenses. The important takeaway is that he’s walked a total of three over his last two starts after walking 18 in his first 12.2 innings (three starts) back from the DL. When healthy, he should be better than his 22.4 K%, though he does have just a career 23.2 K%. However, his career 53.1 GB% is nearly well above his 48.7% mark this year. There’s some upside here if he’s healthy and mechanics are right, though the risk of walking the park always remains. The Diamondbacks will take those walks (9.6% vs RHP) and this may not have been a park I’d be willing to take a shot with him last year, but Arizona also has an 81 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs RHP with just a 90 wRC+ and 12.5 HR/FB in humidor land this year.
Corey Kluber got his poor 2018 outing out of the way against the Twins three starts back, bounced back against the White Sox, but then had the absolute worst outing I can remember seeing from him in years in St Louis (1.2 IP – 6 ER – 2 HR – 1 BB – 2 K). There was a pre-start rain delay built in, so perhaps that threw off his rhythm. There was no velocity dip. His 26.9 K% is fourth best on the board, but really second behind Scherzer among qualifiers, though his 10.7 SwStr% is behind several pitchers today and not too much above league average. He’s failed to pitch into the seventh inning just four times now with those two awful starts. In a good news, bad news situation, he’s in a premium run prevention spot in Kansas City (sub 85 wRC+, 8 BB% and 8 HR/FB at home, vs RHP and over the last week), but one that may hinder his strikeout upside (19.2% vs RHP).
Jonathan Loasiga set highs for IP (5.1) and strikeouts (eight) in his third major league start. He’s still not exceeded the 91 pitches he threw in his first start and that’s a concern, especially considering his walk rate (14%) has been in double digits in each of his starts, though just barely with four walks combined his last two. He’s certainly shown he can miss bats, which he’s done with 13% of his pitches so far with a 58.1 GB% that’s allowed him to generate just 3.2% Barrels/BBE. Another amazing small sample size stat is that he’s also generated just four fly balls, which some of his line drives (29%) should turn into. The Braves are an average offense but do provide some contact problems (20.1 K% vs RHP, 14.6 K% last seven days). They have just a 10.7 HR/FB vs RHP though.
Luis Castillo has allowed at least three earned runs in six straight starts in which he’s completed six innings just once. He’s allowed 18 HRs in 17 starts and unfortunately, his SwStr% has declined instead of his strikeout rate rising over the last month. He still has the second-best mark on the board for the season (13.7%) and is above average over the last 30 days (11%), which could be enough upside against a White Sox offense with an 18.5 K-BB% vs RHP and 19.1 K-BB% over the last seven days.
Max Scherzer has been the best pitcher in baseball this year. The quick and easy all-encompassing stat is a 4.4 fWAR. His 17.2 SwStr% is higher than three pitchers’ strikeout rates today. His 37.1 K% is more than 10 points above the next qualified arm tonight. His .258 xwOBA leads the board by 20 points and his 2.39 SIERA is more than a half run better than anyone. He’s facing the….oh, it doesn’t matter who he’s facing (as the Rock might say 20 years ago). Oh, but wait, it kind of does tonight. It’s the Red Sox (116 wRC+, 18.9 K% vs RHP, 135 wRC+, 17.8 K%, 19.3 HR/FB last seven days), but he does get them in Washington (99 wRC+ on the road), where they lose the DH today.
Nathan Eovaldi struck out a season-high nine Nationals in his sixth start of the season, which is 30% of his season total so far (no more than five in any other start). He’s completed six innings in four of his starts and three straight, including tough spots in Houston and New York (AL). In fact, he’s faced almost all playoff likely teams since debuting against Oakland, which may explain the 10.2% Barrels/BBE, which should come down tonight in Miami (84 wRC+, 9.0 HR/FB at home, 87 wRC+, 16.6 K-BB% vs RHP).
Nick Kingham has made his last three starts at AAA (19.2 IP – 5 ER – 2 HR – 3 BB – 21 K – 72 BF) for reasons I can’t immediately understand, considering his 24.3 K% and .307 xwOBA with an ERA and estimators all below four. The worst aEV (91 mph) on the board might be the only clue. He returns to face a tough, well-disciplined offense, but in one of the most negative run environments in baseball in LA (NL).
Robbie Ray struck out six of 21 Marlins in his return, though two hits got him through six shutout innings in Miami with just two walks, his lowest total in any start this season (excluding the one he left before going on the DL). He threw just 83 pitches and should be on pace for 90 or more tonight. His 13.3 SwStr% in his return matches his season rate exactly. The strikeout upside is rivaled only by the top arms in the league (and on this slate), though the problems are always the same, a high walk rate (13.1% this year) and too much hard contact (47.3% 95+ mph EV is worst on the board). His previous best start of the season came in St Louis (6 IP – 2 H – 1 ER – 9 K- 24 BF), though he did walk five in that start. The Cardinals have just an 86 wRC+ with a 23.2 K% vs LHP, but that doesn’t fit their 9.8 BB% and 17.2 HR/FB against southpaws. They also have a 17.7 K% with a 26.1 K% on the road.
Wei-Yin Chen necessitates that you squint real hard to see the optimism here. He has a 16.1 K% with a 6.14 ERA and estimators all above five. He’s completed six innings just three times this year, but two of those were in his last three starts and he does have a 3.87 FIP over the last 30 days and is tied with Scherzer for the fourth lowest aEV on the board (86.9 mph). Of course, there’s the only area where he comes even close to Scherzer, but he pitches in an extremely negative run environment and is facing a moderate offense with some strikeouts in them (23+% on the road, vs LHP and over the last week).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Kyle Freeland (.276 – 80.5% – 11.7) has a 2.95 ERA with a 90.7 LOB% at home.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Brent Suter has completed six innings three times this year, all in his last three starts (20 IP). However, he’s been below 90 pitches in two of his last three starts, having only exceeded that mark four times this year. While he’s an exceptional contact manager (83.5 mph aEV is best on the board), a strikeout rate at exactly 20% leaves him little margin for error to maintain daily fantasy relevance with the smaller workloads in a park that is a slightly positive run environment and very power friendly. The Twins do have a 23.5 K% and just a 6.8 HR/FB vs LHP (88 wRC+), which keeps him as a reasonable SP2 option for $6.5K on DraftKings, but very difficult to find excess value in above $7K, which he is on FanDuel.
Rick Porcello has sustained a slightly above average strikeout rate over the last month, but with just a 7.6 SwStr%. His SwStr% has been in double digits just one time since April with all 10 of his HRs coming in the 12 starts since. While the ERA has remained below four, each of his estimators have risen above four over the last month with a slight increase in his xwOBA above .330 as well. It’s not terrible by any stretch, but he’s more than $9K and while the matchup is favorable by wRC+, it’s really not by peripherals against a Washington lineup that is struggling to put it all together with most of their lineup intact (26 K%, but 11.6 BB% last seven days).
Kyle Gibson has completed seven innings in four of his last six starts and did strikeout seven of 31 White Sox in his last start with just one walk despite five runs allowed. He’s really been fine with a better SwStr rate (11.1%), GB rate (47.9%) and Barrels/BBE (5.7%) than Corey Kluber this year, but with a much higher SIERA (4.10) and xwOBA (.329). Nobody can complain about the work he’s put in and the Brewers strike out more than a quarter of the time at home and vs RHP, but with a 16+ HR/FB in both circumstances as well. He seems very accurately priced to me.
James Shields has gone at least six innings in 14 of 17 starts, probably more because the White Sox don’t care than due to performance that merits it. His ERA and FIP are still above four with other estimators above five. His .345 xwOBA is second worst on the board.
Jake Junis has a 10.3% Barrels/BBE that’s worst on the board.
Madison Bumgarner has struck out exactly eight in two straight starts, which comprises 15 shutout innings against the Padres and these Rockies. Massive park transition tonight at a high price. The Rockies reach a 17 HR/FB at home, vs LHP and over the last week with a strikeout rate only around league average at home and vs LHP, though a 21.8 K-BB% over the last seven days.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 23.8% | 5.6% | 12.8% | 13.4% | Season | 22.3% | 4.4% | 12.2% | 22.5% | Home | 23.0% | 5.2% | 14.9% | 10.6% | L14Days | 25.0% | 1.9% | 16.7% | 10.6% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | L2 Yrs | 22.2% | 6.4% | 16.3% | 14.2% | Season | 23.2% | 8.4% | 11.5% | Road | 20.2% | 8.3% | 19.8% | 14.2% | L14Days | 27.9% | 11.6% | 6.7% | 26.9% | |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 19.1% | 5.6% | 12.6% | 8.9% | Season | 20.0% | 4.9% | 14.4% | 11.8% | Home | 20.4% | 5.8% | 15.0% | 11.4% | L14Days | 22.5% | 4.1% | 13.3% | 2.8% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 24.4% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 12.9% | Season | 22.4% | 13.2% | 4.7% | 15.5% | Road | 26.1% | 10.3% | 16.7% | 19.5% | L14Days | 22.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 38.2% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Yrs | 30.5% | 5.1% | 14.2% | 11.2% | Season | 26.9% | 3.0% | 17.2% | 22.1% | Road | 28.5% | 4.0% | 19.4% | 16.7% | L14Days | 26.5% | 5.9% | 20.0% | 13.1% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Yrs | 20.4% | 6.2% | 14.9% | 21.8% | Season | 21.8% | 6.5% | 17.5% | 23.7% | Home | 21.2% | 6.8% | 15.6% | 23.6% | L14Days | 21.2% | 13.5% | 28.6% | 30.3% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 17.3% | 9.7% | 15.1% | 16.5% | Season | 16.2% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 16.7% | Road | 17.5% | 9.5% | 16.8% | 15.4% | L14Days | 18.0% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 7.2% |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 31.6% | 14.0% | 16.1% | Season | 31.6% | 14.0% | 16.1% | Home | 26.3% | 15.8% | 36.4% | L14Days | 32.4% | 10.8% | 4.7% | ||||
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 17.2% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 8.1% | Season | 20.1% | 7.9% | 11.7% | 8.9% | Home | 18.8% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | L14Days | 15.7% | 9.8% | 12.5% | |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Yrs | 18.7% | 8.9% | 16.1% | 18.8% | Season | 23.3% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 17.8% | Road | 20.9% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 16.7% | L14Days | 20.3% | 6.8% | 20.0% | 9.6% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Yrs | 24.7% | 8.8% | 19.1% | 13.1% | Season | 22.3% | 8.6% | 20.5% | 18.0% | Home | 27.0% | 9.0% | 22.1% | 15.2% | L14Days | 20.9% | 4.7% | 12.5% | 6.7% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Yrs | 24.1% | 5.1% | 11.8% | 15.5% | Season | 19.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 19.8% | Road | 19.6% | 5.1% | 12.9% | 14.9% | L14Days | 29.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 33.9% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 8.7% | Season | 37.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | Home | 36.7% | 6.5% | 11.1% | 5.7% | L14Days | 23.6% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 5.2% | |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 20.5% | 7.6% | 16.1% | 14.6% | Season | 17.4% | 5.2% | 13.1% | 19.2% | Road | 20.4% | 8.7% | 21.0% | 10.4% | L14Days | 17.7% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 35.2% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | L2 Yrs | 18.3% | 7.3% | 17.1% | 13.2% | Season | 22.4% | 3.7% | 20.5% | 6.1% | Road | 19.0% | 3.2% | 20.7% | -1.3% | L14Days | 31.1% | 4.4% | 25.0% | 7.1% |
| Nick Kingham | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 24.3% | 4.9% | 9.1% | 21.0% | Season | 24.3% | 4.9% | 9.1% | 21.0% | Road | 23.9% | 5.6% | 13.6% | 26.6% | L14Days | ||||
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 21.1% | 4.6% | 11.5% | 15.8% | Season | 22.4% | 5.4% | 9.5% | 8.8% | Road | 20.6% | 5.8% | 13.2% | 19.8% | L14Days | 19.6% | 5.9% | 11.1% | 29.7% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 32.4% | 10.5% | 15.5% | 24.8% | Season | 35.2% | 13.1% | 15.6% | 32.5% | Home | 31.0% | 12.0% | 22.1% | 30.6% | L14Days | 28.6% | 9.5% | 23.1% | |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 11.1% | 14.8% | 25.0% | Season | 11.1% | 14.8% | 25.0% | Home | L14Days | 11.1% | 14.8% | 25.0% | |||||||
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 17.4% | 7.2% | 11.6% | 13.6% | Season | 16.1% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 19.2% | Home | 20.7% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 23.0% | L14Days | 17.8% | 4.4% | 9.1% | 20.0% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Road | 20.9% | 7.8% | 11.9% | 15.0% | LH | 21.7% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 12.1% | L7Days | 19.9% | 6.8% | 13.2% | 11.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.0% | 10.9% | 19.1% | 22.7% | RH | 23.1% | 9.3% | 16.5% | 18.5% | L7Days | 20.9% | 7.7% | 20.3% | 20.7% |
| Twins | Road | 21.7% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 16.7% | LH | 23.5% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 11.0% | L7Days | 18.0% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 2.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.9% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 24.8% | RH | 24.4% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 19.6% | L7Days | 20.4% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 20.7% |
| Royals | Home | 19.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 25.6% | RH | 19.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 22.4% | L7Days | 26.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 19.4% |
| Indians | Road | 22.4% | 7.7% | 11.9% | 16.5% | RH | 21.7% | 8.5% | 14.4% | 24.4% | L7Days | 23.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 19.5% |
| Reds | Home | 22.8% | 11.0% | 13.4% | 25.0% | RH | 21.2% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 20.0% | L7Days | 20.1% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 25.7% |
| Braves | Road | 20.0% | 8.1% | 13.6% | 17.4% | RH | 20.1% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 17.9% | L7Days | 14.6% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 14.0% |
| Giants | Road | 24.4% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 19.3% | LH | 22.5% | 8.3% | 12.5% | 21.7% | L7Days | 18.8% | 10.8% | 15.8% | 33.9% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.2% | 9.6% | 16.5% | 24.4% | RH | 25.3% | 8.2% | 16.6% | 17.0% | L7Days | 25.6% | 8.8% | 25.0% | 23.8% |
| White Sox | Road | 24.6% | 6.9% | 12.9% | 18.1% | RH | 25.1% | 6.6% | 11.7% | 10.7% | L7Days | 24.8% | 5.7% | 12.8% | 18.4% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.7% | 8.3% | 17.0% | 14.4% | LH | 22.3% | 7.9% | 17.5% | 17.8% | L7Days | 26.5% | 4.7% | 17.0% | 24.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 21.8% | 8.1% | 14.3% | 19.0% | RH | 18.9% | 8.4% | 15.3% | 20.5% | L7Days | 17.8% | 8.7% | 19.3% | 32.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 22.9% | 8.6% | 14.6% | 14.4% | RH | 23.9% | 9.0% | 14.9% | 17.3% | L7Days | 24.6% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 5.7% |
| Marlins | Home | 21.9% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 16.4% | RH | 23.7% | 7.1% | 11.5% | 16.9% | L7Days | 24.7% | 7.1% | 12.3% | 25.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.2% | 8.8% | 13.6% | 15.8% | RH | 21.9% | 9.3% | 14.4% | 16.8% | L7Days | 21.4% | 8.9% | 15.2% | 22.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 21.6% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 12.0% | RH | 21.1% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 12.6% | L7Days | 26.0% | 11.6% | 15.7% | 12.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 26.1% | 9.2% | 17.7% | 18.4% | LH | 23.2% | 9.8% | 17.2% | 19.3% | L7Days | 22.7% | 7.3% | 12.8% | 21.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.5% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 13.9% | LH | 18.9% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 19.5% | L7Days | 18.7% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 13.1% |
| Rays | Road | 24.1% | 7.7% | 12.1% | 13.8% | LH | 23.8% | 8.5% | 13.5% | 17.2% | L7Days | 26.5% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 5.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.7 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.99 | 20.4% | 11.1% | 1.84 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 23.2% | 9.4% | 2.47 | 24.8% | 8.6% | 2.88 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.06 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 1.82 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 22.4% | 9.7% | 2.31 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.17 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 26.9% | 10.7% | 2.51 | 24.8% | 9.6% | 2.58 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 21.8% | 9.5% | 2.29 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 2.30 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 16.2% | 9.3% | 1.74 | 17.5% | 9.3% | 1.88 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees | 31.6% | 13.0% | 2.43 | 31.6% | 13.0% | 2.43 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 20.1% | 8.9% | 2.26 | 19.4% | 8.6% | 2.26 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 23.3% | 11.1% | 2.10 | 20.2% | 9.1% | 2.22 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 22.3% | 13.7% | 1.63 | 21.6% | 11.0% | 1.96 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 19.2% | 8.0% | 2.40 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 2.40 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 37.1% | 17.2% | 2.16 | 33.3% | 16.5% | 2.02 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 17.4% | 8.6% | 2.02 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 2.32 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 22.4% | 9.0% | 2.49 | 22.6% | 9.1% | 2.48 |
| Nick Kingham | Pirates | 24.3% | 11.8% | 2.06 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 1.70 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 22.4% | 8.9% | 2.52 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 3.04 |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 35.2% | 13.3% | 2.65 | 28.6% | 13.3% | 2.15 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 11.1% | 4.2% | 2.64 | 11.1% | 4.2% | 2.64 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 16.1% | 8.2% | 1.96 | 14.8% | 8.3% | 1.78 |
Luis Castillo had been below a 10 SwStr% in two straight starts prior to last time out (11.8%), including his lowest of the year (4.7%) and only time below 8% in Pittsburgh three starts back. Hopefully, that’s the major outlier this season.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.18 ERA – 4.16 SIERA – 4.12 xFIP – 4.22 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense-independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 4.00 | 3.58 | -0.42 | 4.00 | -0.64 | 3.32 | -0.68 | 2.96 | -1.04 | 4.62 | 3.95 | -0.67 | 3.79 | -0.83 | 3.65 | -0.97 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 2.68 | 4.04 | 1.36 | 2.68 | 1.50 | 4.04 | 1.36 | 2.95 | 0.27 | 2.48 | 3.78 | 1.30 | 4.02 | 1.54 | 3.34 | 0.86 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 4.28 | 4.05 | -0.23 | 4.28 | -0.29 | 4.25 | -0.03 | 4.48 | 0.20 | 3.60 | 3.93 | 0.33 | 3.98 | 0.38 | 3.53 | -0.07 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 3.22 | 4.68 | 1.46 | 3.22 | 1.50 | 3.81 | 0.59 | 5.54 | 2.32 | 6.75 | 5.54 | -1.21 | 5.59 | -1.16 | 4.86 | -1.89 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 2.54 | 2.93 | 0.39 | 2.54 | 0.24 | 3.28 | 0.74 | 2.56 | 0.02 | 4.08 | 3.16 | -0.92 | 3.07 | -1.01 | 3.80 | -0.28 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 4.67 | 4.04 | -0.63 | 4.67 | -0.27 | 5.23 | 0.56 | 5.33 | 0.66 | 7.14 | 4.27 | -2.87 | 4.89 | -2.25 | 6.89 | -0.25 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 4.29 | 5.03 | 0.74 | 4.29 | 0.79 | 4.43 | 0.14 | 3.96 | -0.33 | 3.82 | 4.64 | 0.82 | 4.91 | 1.09 | 5.33 | 1.51 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees | 1.93 | 3.58 | 1.65 | 1.93 | 0.78 | 2.24 | 0.31 | 3.25 | 1.32 | 1.93 | 3.58 | 1.65 | 2.71 | 0.78 | 2.24 | 0.31 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 3.29 | 4.21 | 0.92 | 3.29 | 0.73 | 3.91 | 0.62 | 3.97 | 0.68 | 3.03 | 4.18 | 1.15 | 3.87 | 0.84 | 3.71 | 0.68 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 3.48 | 4.10 | 0.62 | 3.48 | 0.36 | 3.86 | 0.38 | 3.91 | 0.43 | 3.31 | 4.18 | 0.87 | 3.84 | 0.53 | 4.63 | 1.32 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 5.85 | 4.11 | -1.74 | 5.85 | -1.85 | 5.03 | -0.82 | 3.92 | -1.93 | 6.75 | 4.09 | -2.66 | 4.13 | -2.62 | 5.47 | -1.28 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 2.51 | 4.30 | 1.79 | 2.51 | 1.70 | 3.59 | 1.08 | 3.05 | 0.54 | 2.51 | 4.30 | 1.79 | 4.21 | 1.70 | 3.59 | 1.08 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 2.04 | 2.39 | 0.35 | 2.04 | 0.66 | 2.19 | 0.15 | 1.70 | -0.34 | 2.31 | 2.71 | 0.40 | 2.89 | 0.58 | 2.79 | 0.48 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 4.04 | 4.48 | 0.44 | 4.04 | 0.78 | 4.92 | 0.88 | 4.66 | 0.62 | 3.30 | 4.16 | 0.86 | 4.69 | 1.39 | 4.57 | 1.27 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 4.08 | 3.58 | -0.50 | 4.08 | -0.37 | 4.85 | 0.77 | 3.27 | -0.81 | 4.91 | 3.54 | -1.37 | 3.73 | -1.18 | 5.38 | 0.47 |
| Nick Kingham | Pirates | 3.82 | 3.60 | -0.22 | 3.82 | 0.10 | 3.35 | -0.47 | 3.37 | -0.45 | 3.97 | 4.33 | 0.36 | 4.99 | 1.02 | 3.54 | -0.43 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 3.60 | 3.71 | 0.11 | 3.60 | 0.22 | 3.42 | -0.18 | 4.01 | 0.41 | 3.48 | 4.04 | 0.56 | 4.33 | 0.85 | 4.16 | 0.68 |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 4.01 | 3.39 | -0.62 | 4.01 | -0.60 | 3.78 | -0.23 | 1.89 | -2.12 | 0.00 | 3.59 | 3.59 | 3.73 | 3.73 | 2.10 | 2.10 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 3.00 | 6.54 | 3.54 | 3.00 | 3.28 | 4.10 | 1.10 | 6.66 | 3.66 | 3.00 | 6.54 | 3.54 | 6.28 | 3.28 | 4.10 | 1.10 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 6.14 | 5.19 | -0.95 | 6.14 | -0.73 | 5.36 | -0.78 | 6.27 | 0.13 | 6.20 | 4.99 | -1.21 | 4.94 | -1.26 | 3.87 | -2.33 |
Alex Wood has a 65.2 LOB%, but that’s countered slightly by his 13.3% unearned run rate.
Anibal Sanchez has a .238 BABIP and 83 LOB%.
Carlos Martinez has a 4.7 HR/FB and 19.4% unearned run rate.
Luis Castillo has a 65.5 LOB% and 20.5 HR/FB. Tough to say the contact does not support the elevated HR rate in a tough park.
Nathan Eovaldi has balanced out a 20.5 HR/FB (see the high FIP) with a .178 BABIP.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.3 IFFB% – 86.3 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 0.298 | 0.297 | -0.001 | 45.6% | 22.8% | 6.1% | 88.0% | 32.6% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 0.281 | 0.238 | -0.043 | 42.1% | 16.7% | 9.6% | 81.7% | 34.5% |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 0.271 | 0.272 | 0.001 | 34.0% | 28.6% | 15.5% | 87.4% | 34.7% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 0.284 | 0.294 | 0.010 | 48.7% | 18.5% | 14.1% | 86.8% | 33.9% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.286 | 0.240 | -0.046 | 47.6% | 20.9% | 10.8% | 90.2% | 30.5% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.303 | 0.272 | -0.031 | 38.9% | 17.4% | 10.3% | 90.1% | 30.2% |
| James Shields | White Sox | 0.289 | 0.248 | -0.041 | 38.5% | 19.7% | 8.0% | 87.0% | 36.4% |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees | 0.281 | 0.323 | 0.042 | 58.1% | 29.0% | 0.0% | 87.8% | 33.9% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.312 | 0.276 | -0.036 | 49.3% | 17.4% | 7.4% | 88.2% | 33.8% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.306 | 0.272 | -0.034 | 47.9% | 22.2% | 16.7% | 87.8% | 34.7% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 0.293 | 0.299 | 0.006 | 45.0% | 20.9% | 10.2% | 80.1% | 36.8% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 0.299 | 0.226 | -0.073 | 44.7% | 17.0% | 13.9% | 91.4% | 29.8% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.279 | 0.256 | -0.023 | 36.5% | 16.4% | 19.1% | 76.5% | 34.5% |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 0.290 | 0.285 | -0.005 | 37.9% | 17.3% | 13.1% | 87.3% | 37.2% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 0.264 | 0.178 | -0.086 | 47.4% | 12.4% | 15.4% | 86.8% | 38.3% |
| Nick Kingham | Pirates | 0.293 | 0.250 | -0.043 | 36.0% | 20.0% | 6.8% | 86.3% | 37.0% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 0.289 | 0.284 | -0.005 | 46.4% | 19.3% | 8.6% | 89.4% | 35.5% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 0.281 | 0.319 | 0.038 | 34.7% | 20.8% | 9.4% | 84.4% | 32.1% |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 0.303 | 0.300 | -0.003 | 35.0% | 25.0% | 12.5% | 91.7% | 39.0% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 0.290 | 0.311 | 0.021 | 35.2% | 20.3% | 9.9% | 87.1% | 38.0% |
More than half the board has some BABAIP distance from that of their team’s defense.
Anibal Sanchez has managed contact well, has a decent profile, missing more bats in the strike zone that one would suspect and has a quality defense behind him. Some regression is likely inevitable and the line drive rate at 16.7% is not predictive, but it may not rise too much.
Corey Kluber has a career-low .240 BABIP and it’s one of my favorite things to mention every time he pitches that his BABIP has decreased each year of his career. That does not mean this is sustainable. He still has 20+ points of wiggle room from his .267 BABIP last season and there’s really nothing exceptional in his profile, including the highest Z-Contact% of his career by more than two points.
Nathan Eovaldi has a strong BABIP profile through six starts with a defense that has allowed just a .264 rate as a team, but this is obviously completely unsustainable. A drop in his HR rate should help balance things out though.
Nick Kingham had a .250 BABIP through six starts that was hidden by his 66.9 LOB%. Both are likely to converge to keep his ERA at his estimators, all other things being equal.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .315 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 0.305 | -0.016 | 0.290 | -0.008 | 0.332 | -0.001 | -0.300 | 87.7 | 6.0 | 36.800 | 266 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 0.300 | -0.013 | 0.361 | 0.030 | 0.277 | -0.020 | 0.100 | 84.5 | 7.0 | 25.000 | 128 |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | 0.323 | -0.015 | 0.318 | -0.005 | 0.278 | -0.024 | 0.900 | 83.5 | 7.4 | 25.100 | 271 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 0.311 | -0.008 | 0.308 | 0.007 | 0.343 | 0.041 | -1.700 | 84.9 | 2.5 | 28.500 | 200 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.281 | -0.035 | 0.303 | -0.032 | 0.271 | -0.003 | -0.400 | 87.8 | 6.7 | 33.100 | 299 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.339 | -0.006 | 0.344 | -0.014 | 0.360 | 0.033 | -0.800 | 89.3 | 10.3 | 36.900 | 290 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 0.345 | -0.049 | 0.375 | -0.023 | 0.330 | -0.008 | 0.700 | 87.8 | 7.2 | 35.300 | 334 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees | 0.300 | -0.043 | 0.353 | -0.026 | 0.300 | -0.043 | -0.200 | 87.6 | 3.2 | 29.000 | 31 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.310 | -0.014 | 0.295 | 0.025 | 0.315 | -0.020 | 0.500 | 85.3 | 6.2 | 27.600 | 290 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.329 | -0.038 | 0.323 | -0.026 | 0.343 | -0.046 | 0.700 | 87.9 | 5.7 | 37.500 | 264 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 0.348 | -0.005 | 0.284 | 0.013 | 0.359 | -0.012 | -1.500 | 88 | 9.9 | 40.100 | 262 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 0.287 | -0.022 | 0.316 | -0.005 | 0.287 | -0.022 | 0.000 | 84.7 | 7.3 | 22.900 | 96 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.258 | -0.020 | 0.239 | 0.010 | 0.266 | -0.024 | -0.800 | 86.9 | 8.1 | 35.900 | 248 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 0.342 | -0.006 | 0.331 | 0.037 | 0.342 | -0.022 | -0.800 | 88.8 | 9.4 | 37.700 | 276 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 0.320 | -0.049 | 0.315 | -0.029 | 0.339 | -0.028 | -1.000 | 89.1 | 10.2 | 38.800 | 98 |
| Nick Kingham | Pirates | 0.307 | -0.042 | 0.347 | -0.061 | 0.342 | -0.107 | -1.400 | 91 | 7.0 | 45.000 | 100 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 0.304 | -0.018 | 0.327 | -0.018 | 0.331 | -0.040 | -0.600 | 88 | 5.5 | 32.700 | 309 |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 0.317 | -0.012 | 0.343 | -0.016 | 0.193 | -0.044 | -0.400 | 90.1 | 8.1 | 47.300 | 74 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 0.312 | 0.040 | 0.312 | 0.040 | -0.300 | ||||||
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 0.326 | 0.039 | 0.279 | 0.001 | 0.332 | 0.025 | -0.500 | 86.9 | 4.8 | 32.600 | 187 |
Amazingly, we don’t have a single pitcher on the board above a .350 xwOBA today.
Anibal Sanchez is second on the board in aEV and 95+ mph EV with only some serious name recognition ahead of him in terms of xwOBA.
Carlos Martinez has the fourth lowest aEV on the board. His 2.5% Barrels/BBE is easily first despite the decrease in ground balls this year.
Corey Kluber has the second best xwOBA on the board and despite recent troubles is still second best for the last 30 days (better than his season mark) among those with more than one start over that span.
Luis Castillo has the highest xwOBA on the board, but even that’s still below .350. His 9.9% Barrels/BBE is third highest and certainly a concern in that park, though the White Sox don’t have much power, especially beyond the first half of the lineup.
Nick Kingham exhibits a strange, small sample combination of a high aEV with a low xwOBA.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever-evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Max Scherzer (1) at $13.3K/$11.7K seems like a bargain. Sure, he’s facing the Red Sox, but he’s Matchup Proof Scherzer. I’d not be surprised if he piled up 10 strikeouts in seven innings, especially if Betts, Martinez or Benintendi are the ones sitting today. Perhaps he bumps down slightly if it’s Bradley.
Value Tier Two
Alex Wood (3) is in a nice run prevention spot with a projection for about a league average strikeout rate here. An average pitcher at a cost near or slightly above league average gives him some value here. While he’s only gone beyond six innings in one of his last 15 starts, he has reached the 90 pitch plateau in three of his last four starts and should be able to get through six with efficiency. How many pitchers can we expect more than that from?
Nathan Eovaldi gets a break in Miami from a very competitive schedule so far at a cost far too low on FanDuel ($6.3K) for the matchup and run environment. He’s $8.7K on DraftKings, where he drops down to the fourth tier. If he exceeds six innings tonight, he could end up as the top point per dollar guy on FanDuel.
Value Tier Three
Robbie Ray (4) is going to torture me no matter what I do. I’m resigned to his fate and have been for the last few years. Save yourselves. The bottom line is he’s a high strikeout arm in a spot with some upside for less than $10K, but he walks a ton of batters and allows far too much hard contact against a team with right-handed power and patience. One thing they could do is run up his pitch count too quickly.
Luis Castillo has been terrible, but the upside in his SwStr% certainly still has to be considered, especially at such a low price on DraftKings where he has the potential to be the top point per dollar arm on the board in such a high upside spot. Note I did not say likely to be or even projects to be. He has not actually exceeded 20 DK points many times this season (if he has at all, I’m not there right now), but does have that potential at $5.7K. He certainly drops down a tier, if usable at all for $7K on FanDuel. Players are certainly looking for lower priced guys to pair with Scherzer tonight though.
Carlos Martinez suggested that he may be back in his most recent effort and has been under control in two straight. While there’s always a fair amount of risk with him, he’s very reasonably priced in what should be a nice spot tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Corey Kluber (2) has not looked good (exaggeration) in two of his last three starts and is not really missing bats at an elite rate this year. Further concern is the low strikeout rate of the Royals, but he should be able to bounce back as far as workload and run prevention are concerned. Only Scherzer is more expensive and really within about $2K of his price tag.
Wei-Yin Chen probably shouldn’t be used on FanDuel, even for $5.9K. However, he pitches in a great park, manages contact decently and has been going a bit deeper into games recently. His presence in a lineup with Scherzer for $4.6K on DraftKings should help with some bats.
Jonathan Loaisiga is still below $7K on FanDuel and probably shouldn’t be considering his stuff, but players will have to accept that a quality start will be very unlikely due to the workload confines. Perhaps the Braves will make enough contact early in counts to get him through six though. I’ve looked pretty silly by not endorsing him in previous starts due to workload concerns, but $8.3K on DraftKings for a guy who throws around 85 pitches against a contact prone offense again seems something less than ideal. He’s certainly shown the upside to make it work though.
Anibal Sanchez is a huge risk tonight, but he’s cheaper than a quality pitcher should be and that is what he’s been for the Braves so far with a change in his arsenal to support the improvement. The upside is that I don’t expect anyone to be using him in Yankee Stadium and plenty of players to be using Yankee bats, so if he performs well and they don’t…
Nick Kingham exhibited no real justification for demotion (except for high underlying aEV), pitched well at AAA and is now back in a great park tonight, though the offense that inhabits it could be a test. He’s less than $8K with some upside though.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.