Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, June 26th
Rumor is that the Diamondbacks are just about ready to employ their humidor and wreak havoc on park factors. There was mention that they were eve considering using it against the Phillies, but then must have realized they’d only be hurting themselves. With a .632 win rate this season, why change what isn’t broke? When it does eventually come into play soon, it will be interesting. And by interesting, I really mean frustrating to decipher the actual effects.
A couple of rare day games on the Monday (one appears to be a make-up) and eight in total. All pitchers will be covered below. I’m sad to say that none of what we’re going to like is inexpensive today, but perhaps key omissions will be interesting.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 10.3 | 4.72 | 5.34 | 40.9% | 0.98 | 5.3 | STL | 97 | 83 | 97 | |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | -4.5 | 3.21 | 6.08 | 49.6% | 1.09 | 3.7 | 3.06 | TEX | 80 | 96 | 107 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 2.7 | 3.02 | 6.99 | 40.9% | 1.13 | 3.14 | 2.63 | MIN | 94 | 93 | 87 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 4.5 | 3.95 | 6.41 | 48.5% | 1.09 | 3.84 | CLE | 99 | 96 | 111 | |
| David Holmberg | CHW | -0.3 | 5.46 | 4.38 | 42.2% | 0.98 | 5.66 | 4.78 | NYY | 103 | 96 | 80 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 4.3 | 5.02 | 4.96 | 45.5% | 1.01 | 4.99 | 7.11 | WAS | 120 | 111 | 136 |
| German Marquez | COL | 1.1 | 4.44 | 5.36 | 44.6% | 0.93 | 4.46 | 5.75 | SFO | 71 | 78 | 75 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0 | 4.05 | 5.71 | 47.3% | 1.01 | 3.6 | 4.02 | CHC | 91 | 112 | 104 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.6 | 4 | 6.47 | 43.1% | 0.93 | 3.64 | 3.53 | COL | 83 | 80 | 30 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 5.8 | 4.32 | 5.71 | 41.0% | 0.98 | 4.81 | 4.15 | CHW | 97 | 125 | 92 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 3.9 | 4.69 | 5.1 | 40.8% | 1.13 | 5.49 | 3.5 | BOS | 94 | 92 | 89 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -7.8 | 4.3 | 5.53 | 46.2% | 0.98 | 3.96 | 4.59 | CIN | 95 | 101 | 106 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 2.4 | 4.29 | 5.26 | 37.1% | 1.13 | 5.38 | 2.44 | ARI | 114 | 104 | 101 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 2 | 3.54 | 5.43 | 43.9% | 0.89 | 4.3 | 4.32 | ANA | 83 | 89 | 113 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | -1.5 | 4.43 | 5.92 | 42.2% | 0.89 | 4.55 | 5.56 | LOS | 126 | 111 | 176 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -7.4 | 3.57 | 6.52 | 47.0% | 1.13 | 3.84 | 3.67 | PHI | 72 | 82 | 78 |
Carlos Carrasco has struck out 17 of his last 49 batters with a hard hit rate below 30% in each start. He’s had a double digit SwStr% in 11 straight starts. Although he has a career 50% ground ball rate, he’s only generating grounders at a league average rate this year (45.9%), but it hasn’t changed the quality of his contact allowed much. The Rangers are a league average offense or maybe even below (26.6 K% on the road, 23.5 K% vs RHP, 25.5 K% over the last week), but Cleveland is a run friendly park and the Texas bats have hit the ball harder than any team on the board over the last week (45 Hard%, 23.1 HR/FB).
Chris Sale has struck out 10 in back-to-back starts, going at least eight innings in both. He’s gone at least seven in 12 of 15 starts this year. He’s second in the majors with a 35.1 K%, but is tied for the lead with a 16.0 SwStr% and leads the majors with a 30.5 K-BB%. Minnesota has been slumping and has just a 9.2 HR/FB vs LHP despite some pop.
Jeff Samardzija has allowed two HRs in each of his last three starts, but only four of his 16 on the season at home this year. His 24.4 K-BB% is fourth best in the majors. His SwStr rate has dropped over the last month to a league average rate, but he was at 12.7% in his last start in Atlanta. He may have the top matchup on the board, hosting the Rockies (16.0 K-BB% at home, 14.3 K-BB% vs RHP). How does a team present a 30 wRC+ over the period of a week? A 27.4 K% and 1.4 Hard-Soft% is a good start.
Zack Greinke is lost to the day slate unfortunately, so we won’t spend that much time, but he did bounce back decently in Coors (15.2 SwStr%, 23.3 K%) after a struggle in Detroit (5.9 SwStr%, 16.7 K%). He’s had a double digit SwStr% in every other start this season since his first (9.8%). Even in a difficult park, he’s in a nice spot against a Philadelphia offense with a 23.5 K% vs RHP that does not hit the ball all that hard.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Gio Gonzalez (.268 – 84.5% – 13.0) has increased his strikeouts more than his SwStr% over the last month, but is sitting on a 10.9 SwStr% over his last three. His ground ball rate is down this year, while the walk rate is up to create his lowest K-BB (12%) since 2010. The Cubs can pose problems against control challenged LHP (12.7 BB%, 19.3 HR/FB).
Jose Berrios (.227 – 79% – 6.9) is going to be the controversial omission tonight and it was a major fail last time out when he completed eight innings with eight strikeouts against the White Sox. However, you can see what’s driving the low ERA. All of the estimators except for DRA are much higher. He’s facing an offense that has under-performed, but a low strikeout one in a very run positive environment. His strikeout and swinging strike rates are good, but not mind-blowing. Again, I believe him to be over-priced in this spot. He may be a $10K pitcher in more neutral or better spots, but probably not in Fenway on most nights right now.
German Marquez (.307 – 75.7 – 9.0) gets one of the most favorable park shifts possible in San Francisco. Despite just a 3.00 ERA on the road with a 16.5 K-BB% that nearly doubles his home mark this season, he’s allowed even harder contact away from Coors (37.7 Hard%). His 89.8 mph aEV is worst on the board. He’s in one of the top run prevention spots, where the Giants should improve upon his quality of contact allowed, but it’s not a very favorable spot for strikeouts.
Cole Hamels (.219 – 79.1 – 12.5) had poor peripherals with a career low 2.3 K-BB% and 7.5 SwStr% over four starts before hitting the DL. Who knows how much of that was due to injury? He had just two AA starts (30 total batters faced) before returning to the big team in a difficult spot in Cleveland today.
David Holmberg (.204 – 73.8% – 8.3) is the pitcher I would expect to see the most stacks against, though the Yankees haven’t been nearly as proficient against LHP despite the predominance of RHBs in their lineup.
Eddie Butler (.265 – 72.8% – 7.1) may have the worst matchup on the board.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Rich Hill struck out a season high eight Mets last time out, but still walked three and got through only five innings. It seems the lack of control has been more limiting than an intentional pitch count. He’s thrown at least 95 pitches in four straight starts, but still hasn’t gone more than five innings in a start this year and only four innings in two of those last four. He’s in a good spot tonight, hosting the Angels, and his 83.6 mph aEV is lowest on the board. His last start was a nice rebound, but still with too many walks, driving up his pitch count to the point where it’s still difficult to trust him for more than $8K and he’s unlikely to go the six innings necessary for a quality start on FanDuel, where’s a few hundred less.
Jordan Montgomery has surrendered four HRs over his last three starts to push a previously unsustainable HR/FB into double digits, but just barely (10.1%). The 13.2 SwStr% is third best on the board and even better over the last month even if it’s not generating the number of strikeouts you’d normally expect. The White Sox are the top offense in baseball against LHP and it’s not even really all that close. They are 12 points of wRC+ better than the next best team.
Nick Pivetta has struck out 19 of his last 49 batters, though only had an above average SwStr rate in his last start. In fact, he’d been below league average in each of his previous six starts before double digits in his MLB debut. A park downgrade finds him in one of the worst spots of the day in Arizona as well.
Brandon Finnegan had just three starts before going on the DL with a shoulder issue. He faced just 20 batters in his last rehab starts, his only one at AAA, allowing two HRs with two walks and striking out five. Great spot against the Cardinals (8.0 HR/FB vs LHP), but some type of workload limitation is likely.
Michael Wacha has seen his strikeouts reduce with increasing hard contact. St Louis becomes slightly more run and power friendly as the weather heats up over the summer.
Ricky Nolasco has allowed multiple HRs in 10 of 15 starts.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | L2 Years | 20.9% | 11.5% | Road | 20.3% | 15.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 27.4% | 6.1% | Home | 22.9% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 5.6% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.1% | 4.7% | Home | 29.6% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 33.9% | 3.4% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 22.4% | 8.1% | Road | 22.8% | 9.3% | L14 Days | ||
| David Holmberg | White Sox | L2 Years | 13.3% | 10.2% | Home | 13.7% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 7.5% |
| Eddie Butler | Cubs | L2 Years | 15.2% | 9.4% | Road | 15.8% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 9.5% | 14.3% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.5% | Road | 21.4% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 6.8% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 22.8% | 8.7% | Home | 25.3% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 23.2% | 3.6% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 20.9% | 5.8% | Home | 22.6% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 1.8% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 22.7% | 8.3% | Road | 18.5% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 6.3% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 20.8% | 10.2% | Road | 19.2% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 24.6% | 3.5% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 20.1% | 8.5% | Home | 20.2% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 18.6% | 9.3% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 25.1% | 10.4% | Road | 19.3% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 38.8% | 6.1% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.7% | 8.8% | Home | 25.5% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 10.9% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 18.4% | 6.0% | Road | 18.6% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 12.5% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 23.7% | 5.4% | Home | 23.1% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 3.7% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | Home | 21.0% | 9.7% | LH | 21.1% | 11.0% | L7Days | 26.3% | 9.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.6% | 8.0% | RH | 23.5% | 8.8% | L7Days | 25.5% | 10.1% |
| Twins | Road | 21.5% | 8.8% | LH | 19.9% | 10.3% | L7Days | 24.0% | 8.4% |
| Indians | Home | 19.1% | 9.5% | LH | 16.6% | 10.0% | L7Days | 15.5% | 10.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.3% | 8.8% | LH | 23.9% | 10.4% | L7Days | 24.7% | 7.3% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.3% | 9.2% | RH | 19.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 20.6% | 11.1% |
| Giants | Home | 19.5% | 6.6% | RH | 19.3% | 7.6% | L7Days | 17.7% | 6.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.7% | 10.1% | LH | 21.0% | 12.7% | L7Days | 20.2% | 10.3% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.8% | 7.8% | RH | 22.1% | 7.9% | L7Days | 27.4% | 6.6% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.4% | 7.8% | LH | 19.0% | 8.0% | L7Days | 21.6% | 4.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.1% | 9.4% | RH | 18.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 19.6% | 5.4% |
| Reds | Road | 20.0% | 7.4% | RH | 20.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.8% | 8.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.6% | 9.1% | RH | 22.2% | 9.0% | L7Days | 19.9% | 7.7% |
| Angels | Road | 21.6% | 9.2% | LH | 18.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 24.1% | 6.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.3% | 10.7% | RH | 23.3% | 10.7% | L7Days | 21.3% | 16.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.4% | 7.0% | RH | 23.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 19.9% | 7.1% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | L2 Years | 35.0% | 15.6% | 18.6% | 2017 | 19.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | 34.7% | 12.1% | 17.6% | L14 Days | |||
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 30.8% | 15.1% | 13.7% | 2017 | 29.8% | 12.5% | 11.6% | Home | 36.8% | 20.2% | 22.6% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 9.1% | 4.3% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.9% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 2017 | 29.3% | 8.2% | 14.0% | Home | 32.5% | 17.0% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 13.3% | 8.1% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.1% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 2017 | 36.0% | 12.5% | 22.0% | Road | 30.3% | 12.4% | 9.9% | L14 Days | |||
| David Holmberg | White Sox | L2 Years | 36.2% | 16.9% | 20.1% | 2017 | 38.5% | 8.3% | 16.6% | Home | 23.7% | 0.0% | -13.1% | L14 Days | 43.3% | 11.1% | 30.0% |
| Eddie Butler | Cubs | L2 Years | 36.7% | 16.4% | 21.8% | 2017 | 32.5% | 7.1% | 13.3% | Road | 37.8% | 13.8% | 21.9% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 5.9% | 12.5% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 33.7% | 10.3% | 20.0% | 2017 | 35.4% | 9.0% | 21.6% | Road | 37.2% | 9.8% | 24.0% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 0.0% | 20.6% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 32.1% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 2017 | 31.7% | 13.0% | 9.9% | Home | 32.8% | 13.5% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 29.6% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 2017 | 28.6% | 18.0% | 5.8% | Home | 31.8% | 9.7% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.0% | 10.1% | 13.5% | 2017 | 27.0% | 10.1% | 13.5% | Road | 21.9% | 7.9% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 37.1% | 25.0% | 25.7% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 29.0% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 2017 | 22.8% | 6.9% | 5.1% | Road | 28.6% | 14.3% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 0.0% | 4.9% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.8% | 12.9% | 9.4% | 2017 | 27.0% | 12.9% | 6.4% | Home | 29.9% | 11.0% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 16.7% | 9.7% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 36.8% | 15.9% | 24.8% | 2017 | 36.8% | 15.9% | 24.8% | Road | 31.9% | 7.4% | 18.0% | L14 Days | 40.7% | 16.7% | 29.6% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.7% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 2017 | 25.5% | 12.2% | 0.0% | Home | 30.2% | 7.6% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 15.4% | -3.7% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 35.4% | 14.8% | 21.4% | 2017 | 38.8% | 21.5% | 25.0% | Road | 39.2% | 16.5% | 26.7% | L14 Days | 42.5% | 30.8% | 32.5% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.2% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 2017 | 35.0% | 15.6% | 14.0% | Home | 37.4% | 13.8% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 16.7% | 2.4% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | Home | 30.3% | 10.9% | 9.8% | LH | 32.7% | 8.0% | 15.0% | L7Days | 32.7% | 21.8% | 7.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.7% | 15.2% | 10.7% | RH | 34.0% | 16.4% | 14.0% | L7Days | 45.0% | 23.1% | 26.7% |
| Twins | Road | 32.0% | 13.5% | 14.7% | LH | 31.3% | 9.2% | 12.9% | L7Days | 36.2% | 14.3% | 15.8% |
| Indians | Home | 30.9% | 13.5% | 14.3% | LH | 32.8% | 12.3% | 15.3% | L7Days | 30.4% | 7.1% | 15.4% |
| Yankees | Road | 31.5% | 13.4% | 13.7% | LH | 29.8% | 13.8% | 9.1% | L7Days | 29.1% | 17.3% | 8.8% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.5% | 16.1% | 16.2% | RH | 31.6% | 15.0% | 14.3% | L7Days | 35.8% | 20.0% | 20.8% |
| Giants | Home | 24.7% | 6.3% | 2.9% | RH | 28.0% | 9.5% | 5.7% | L7Days | 28.9% | 9.6% | 6.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 29.1% | 13.2% | 8.8% | LH | 29.1% | 19.3% | 8.0% | L7Days | 28.7% | 14.0% | 11.5% |
| Rockies | Road | 29.6% | 11.8% | 9.3% | RH | 29.4% | 12.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 26.4% | 7.3% | 1.4% |
| White Sox | Home | 29.1% | 12.2% | 8.3% | LH | 30.2% | 14.3% | 11.5% | L7Days | 32.7% | 14.8% | 15.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 38.2% | 8.5% | 20.9% | RH | 36.1% | 10.6% | 18.8% | L7Days | 35.4% | 13.1% | 18.9% |
| Reds | Road | 29.4% | 13.7% | 9.9% | RH | 29.0% | 14.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 31.2% | 9.9% | 13.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 39.0% | 17.1% | 26.1% | RH | 36.2% | 15.8% | 19.2% | L7Days | 33.3% | 11.3% | 16.6% |
| Angels | Road | 32.7% | 10.9% | 13.6% | LH | 30.6% | 8.8% | 14.7% | L7Days | 32.3% | 12.2% | 15.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.3% | 18.8% | 21.2% | RH | 35.2% | 15.9% | 20.2% | L7Days | 40.5% | 28.2% | 22.0% |
| Phillies | Road | 28.6% | 10.3% | 7.0% | RH | 29.7% | 10.2% | 8.3% | L7Days | 29.1% | 11.1% | 7.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 31.8% | 12.0% | 2.65 | |||
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.14 | 26.3% | 13.2% | 1.99 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 35.1% | 16.0% | 2.19 | 31.9% | 15.8% | 2.02 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 11.5% | 7.5% | 1.53 | |||
| David Holmberg | CHW | 15.6% | 5.2% | 3.00 | 15.1% | 5.5% | 2.75 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 15.1% | 7.8% | 1.94 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.01 |
| German Marquez | COL | 20.7% | 8.6% | 2.41 | 22.0% | 9.3% | 2.37 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 22.3% | 9.3% | 2.40 | 25.2% | 9.7% | 2.60 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 27.7% | 10.8% | 2.56 | 25.6% | 9.3% | 2.75 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 22.7% | 13.2% | 1.72 | 23.0% | 14.1% | 1.63 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 25.2% | 10.4% | 2.42 | 23.7% | 10.2% | 2.32 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 21.4% | 9.7% | 2.21 | 17.8% | 9.1% | 1.96 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 25.1% | 8.2% | 3.06 | 26.9% | 7.6% | 3.54 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 24.0% | 8.9% | 2.70 | 25.0% | 9.5% | 2.63 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 19.4% | 10.6% | 1.83 | 16.1% | 10.0% | 1.61 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 28.7% | 13.9% | 2.06 | 26.2% | 15.3% | 1.71 |
Jeff Samardzija has a SwStr% above 12% in two of his last five starts, but has also been below 7% twice.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 2.7 | 5.04 | 2.34 | 4.12 | 1.42 | 3.04 | 0.34 | 3.61 | 0.91 | |||||||
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 2.99 | 3.62 | 0.63 | 3.51 | 0.52 | 3.37 | 0.38 | 2.64 | -0.35 | 3.1 | 3.55 | 0.45 | 3.48 | 0.38 | 3.28 | 0.18 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 2.85 | 2.61 | -0.24 | 2.63 | -0.22 | 1.97 | -0.88 | 1.67 | -1.18 | 3.93 | 2.81 | -1.12 | 2.63 | -1.3 | 2.09 | -1.84 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.03 | 5.65 | 2.62 | 5.45 | 2.42 | 5.28 | 2.25 | 4.33 | 1.30 | |||||||
| David Holmberg | CHW | 2.84 | 5.02 | 2.18 | 5.06 | 2.22 | 4.24 | 1.4 | 5.81 | 2.97 | 3.8 | 5.36 | 1.56 | 5.34 | 1.54 | 5.06 | 1.26 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 4.19 | 5.77 | 1.58 | 5.43 | 1.24 | 4.48 | 0.29 | 7.35 | 3.16 | 5.47 | 5.51 | 0.04 | 5.51 | 0.04 | 4.76 | -0.71 |
| German Marquez | COL | 3.92 | 4.49 | 0.57 | 4.6 | 0.68 | 3.89 | -0.03 | 5.53 | 1.61 | 4.01 | 4.31 | 0.3 | 4.5 | 0.49 | 4.64 | 0.63 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 2.96 | 4.56 | 1.6 | 4.38 | 1.42 | 4.28 | 1.32 | 3.73 | 0.77 | 3.06 | 3.73 | 0.67 | 3.6 | 0.54 | 2.74 | -0.32 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4.74 | 3.16 | -1.58 | 3.01 | -1.73 | 3.49 | -1.25 | 2.81 | -1.93 | 5.28 | 3.11 | -2.17 | 2.82 | -2.46 | 3.72 | -1.56 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 3.74 | 4.32 | 0.58 | 4.47 | 0.73 | 3.89 | 0.15 | 3.70 | -0.04 | 2.83 | 3.94 | 1.11 | 3.78 | 0.95 | 3.83 | 1 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 2.67 | 3.88 | 1.21 | 4.27 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 0.63 | 2.91 | 0.24 | 3.34 | 4.13 | 0.79 | 4.3 | 0.96 | 2.92 | -0.42 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 4.76 | 4.44 | -0.32 | 4.16 | -0.6 | 4.05 | -0.71 | 5.22 | 0.46 | 7.17 | 5.24 | -1.93 | 5.04 | -2.13 | 5.01 | -2.16 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 4.46 | 4.29 | -0.17 | 4.25 | -0.21 | 4.53 | 0.07 | 5.41 | 0.95 | 3.91 | 4.13 | 0.22 | 3.91 | 0 | 3.4 | -0.51 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 4.73 | 5.04 | 0.31 | 5.44 | 0.71 | 5.19 | 0.46 | 7.18 | 2.45 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 0.1 | 5.52 | 0.82 | 4.79 | 0.09 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 5.23 | 4.54 | -0.69 | 4.7 | -0.53 | 5.96 | 0.73 | 7.13 | 1.90 | 7.09 | 4.73 | -2.36 | 4.76 | -2.33 | 6.29 | -0.8 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 3.14 | 3.2 | 0.06 | 3.11 | -0.03 | 3.31 | 0.17 | 2.26 | -0.88 | 3.86 | 3.39 | -0.47 | 3.2 | -0.66 | 3.37 | -0.49 |
Carlos Carrasco has a career .300 BABIP with the Cleveland defense a bit worse this year. His .269 mark represents a career low. He is generating less contact on the ground, but still few popups and a normal rate of line drives. I’d expect him to trend up towards .300 and possibly lose some ground off a career high 79.9 LOB% as well, although DRA thinks he’s even better than he’s been.
Jeff Samardzija has a .327 BABIP, 65.9 LOB% and 18.0 HR/FB. The HR rate would be the most concerning because a great home park should make up for a few difficult ones on the road. His most difficult starts have been in Colorado and Arizona. Removing those instances would generate better numbers.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 0.289 | 0.286 | -0.003 | 57.1% | 0.143 | 0.0% | 77.3% | ||||
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.306 | 0.269 | -0.037 | 45.9% | 0.216 | 6.9% | 87.3% | 86.7 | 8.00% | 5.30% | 225 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0.315 | 0.290 | -0.025 | 38.6% | 0.22 | 11.3% | 77.0% | 86.9 | 6.00% | 3.60% | 249 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.286 | 0.219 | -0.067 | 46.5% | 0.212 | 12.5% | 88.7% | 87.2 | 4.00% | 3.10% | 100 |
| David Holmberg | CHW | 0.285 | 0.204 | -0.081 | 44.2% | 0.179 | 19.4% | 91.1% | 87.4 | 7.30% | 5.50% | 96 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 0.281 | 0.265 | -0.016 | 42.9% | 0.218 | 11.9% | 89.9% | 87.4 | 5.00% | 3.60% | 120 |
| German Marquez | COL | 0.294 | 0.307 | 0.013 | 40.6% | 0.222 | 11.9% | 90.5% | 89.8 | 6.10% | 4.20% | 181 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.298 | 0.268 | -0.03 | 43.7% | 0.201 | 10.9% | 87.4% | 86 | 6.10% | 4.10% | 262 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.320 | 0.327 | 0.007 | 41.5% | 0.257 | 7.9% | 83.3% | 85.5 | 5.80% | 4.00% | 276 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 0.284 | 0.282 | -0.002 | 41.0% | 0.17 | 7.9% | 86.0% | 87 | 7.00% | 4.80% | 215 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 0.289 | 0.227 | -0.062 | 44.8% | 0.119 | 8.6% | 83.7% | 85.4 | 4.40% | 2.90% | 136 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.291 | 0.347 | 0.056 | 46.2% | 0.226 | 4.8% | 84.0% | 84.8 | 6.40% | 4.40% | 204 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 0.304 | 0.336 | 0.032 | 37.1% | 0.25 | 9.1% | 86.8% | 88.1 | 10.30% | 6.60% | 117 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 0.279 | 0.300 | 0.021 | 37.6% | 0.139 | 16.3% | 82.3% | 83.6 | 6.60% | 3.90% | 106 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 0.289 | 0.305 | 0.016 | 40.3% | 0.19 | 7.5% | 86.2% | 89.6 | 11.20% | 8.20% | 268 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.291 | 0.284 | -0.007 | 47.2% | 0.173 | 12.2% | 85.5% | 86.7 | 7.80% | 5.20% | 257 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Jeff Samardzija (2) faces the Rockies for the fourth time this year. He’s allowed 15 runs in 11.1 Coors innings and another four in seven at home, but with eight strikeouts. The Rockies have been a special brand of terrible offensively over the last week. His much more favorable cost (not much above $8K on either site) in perhaps the top matchup on the board pushes puts him in the top value spot.
Value Tier Two
Chris Sale (1) is the top strikeout arm on the slate and generally in the league. He faces a slumping offense in a very positive run environment that might prevent his ERA from being even lower. He’s easily the top arm on the board, but at the highest cost on either site. No pitcher is within $1.8K of him on FanDuel.
Value Tier Three
Carlos Carrasco (3) is the third (or tied for second) most expensive pitcher on the board and may be in something of a neutral spot when considering all the factors. He’s been very good over his last two starts, though the estimators are around a half run higher than the ERA for the season.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Zack Greinke (3) should be fine at home against the Phillies, but I can’t see him costing just $100 less than Sale on DK. Go ahead and bump him up a tier on FD.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window