Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, May 14th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2018-05-15 01:38:37

League averages have been updated for the first time in 2018. While we’d still expect most numbers to regress towards standards the rest of the season, 30 teams times 40 or so games right now is a pretty large sample and there are some interesting things:

League wide BABIP for starting pitchers is down from .299 to .287 this year. Is shifting more effective? Is this a result of more fly balls? It’s a drastic drop.

Starting pitcher HR/FB is down from 14.2% last season, but only to 13.4%. There’s been an uptick since really early in the season with much colder weather. I wouldn’t be surprised if we eventually reach last year’s rate even if some people believe the balls have been “un-juiced” this year.

Your eyes are not deceiving you. Seems there’s a 15 K game every night and starter strikeouts are indeed up from 20.6% last season to 21.8% this year. This is just starters mind you. Swinging strike is up slightly less, from 9.8% to 10.1% though and that’s a bit more of a surprise. More strikes are being taken? K/SwStr moves from 2.1 to 2.16 right now.

ERA and estimators are all down. FIP is down a little less, but the other three numbers (ERA, xFIP, SIERA) are all down almost exactly a quarter run. This seems like the early season effect of the HR drop since FIP is the only one that uses actual and not a league average home run rate.

Some of our suspicions are confirmed about BABIP in the batted ball rates. Grounders are down one percentage points. More line drives, but more infield flies too. This helps reduce BABIP slightly. Swing and contact rates haven’t changed too much.

As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.

Legend

Starting Pitching Main Chart

Andrew Heaney is a bit problematic today. He’s certainly got some swing and miss in him. He also has an elevated BABIP due to a 32.4 LD%, despite an 83.6 Z-Contact% and mph aEV. This has his strand rate down at 64%. See all of his estimators well more than a run below his actual ERA due to this. There would appear to be serious regression in store. On the other hand, he’s facing one of the most dangerous offenses in the league against southpaws and a red hot one overall (15 K%, 16.7 HR/FB last seven days) as an extreme fly ball pitcher. The lone advantage is that he does so in a negative run environment.

Carlos Carrasco doubled his previous season high for strikeouts (14) on a trip to Milwaukee last time out. You might be surprised to know that he did this with his highest fastball usage (53%) since his first start of the season and his velocity was actually down slightly. He nearly completed ditched his curveball (6.8%). That’s what Fangraphs says. Baseball Savant, however, says that it was the slider he ditched (1 thrown) with 42 curveballs. The Brewers put just 12 of his 62 fastballs (two or four seamers) into play with just two hits. His current 14.2 SwStr% is now a career high and second best on the board today, possibly suggesting further improvement in his 25.9 K%. He has a .276 xwOBA on the road since last season, the top split on the board today. Detroit has not been a total DFS cakewalk this year (the park or the offense), but mostly because they don’t strike out a ton (20.7% vs RHP). They have made some bad pitchers look good because they don’t walk (6.7% vs RHP) or hit for power (8.3 HR/FB vs RHP).

Joey Lucchesi has the following line against the Rockies this year: 11 IP – 5 H – 0 ER – 1 HR – 4 BB – 15 K – 40 BF). It’s the third time he’ll be facing them. He’s faced no other team twice. This is a bit of a concern due to the deception in his delivery. The more a team sees of him, the more success they should have…in theory. Another concern is that he’s only completed six innings twice, none of those in his last four starts. He has two outings of 99 or more pitchers, but fewer than 90 in each of his other six. Those are all the concerns. The positives may be more significant and tangible. He has a 26.7 K% and faces a terrible road offense (83 wRC+, 24.3 K%). They do have a 19.5 HR/FB and 9.8 BB% vs LHP, but even that only gets them to a 96 wRC+. They also have a 25.7 K% vs southpaws and have one of the most negative park shifts possible tonight.

Lance McCullers failed to complete six innings for the first time in a month last time out. He’s also walked seven against eight walks over his last two starts and has struck out just 18 of his last 99 batters (four starts). The good news is that he has sustained a double digit SwStr% in each of those starts and has a ground ball rate below 60% in just two starts this year (50% or better in all). Here’s the interesting thing. He’d been throwing his curveball around 50% of the time through April, but it’s been below 40% over each of his last three starts by FG, while slightly more via Statcast, but still a bit less often. He has compensated with more changeups, which does have a similar whiff rate. Regardless, you’re getting an elite rate of ground balls with a high strikeout upside. His .297 xwOBA is one of just three below .300 today. The matchup is not ideal (Angels 19.4 K% vs RHP) and may, ironically, take away the effectiveness of his best weapon as a reverse platoon pitcher against a predominantly right-handed lineup. His sinker usage jumps to 46% against RHBs, resulting in a 69.7 GB%, so it’s not like there’s more upside for bats, but a bit less daily fantasy goodness.

Patrick Corbin is the top pitcher on the board today. His 34.5 K% is a touchdown above McCullers. His ERA and estimators are all around two and a half. The BABIP (.217) has some regression coming, but his .272 xwOBA is best on the board. The humidor has helped cut down on his hard contact rates. He’s coming off his worst start of the season, which was five innings (fewest of season) of one run ball with four walks (most of season) in LA (NL). He still struck out seven of 21 batters. There is a bit of concern though because after five starts with a 16+ SwStr% and eight or more strikeouts to open the season, he hasn’t exceeded seven with a 10.4 SwStr% in any of his last three starts. While the first of these three starts was his highest velocity of the season, it’s plummeted over the last two starts. The Dodgers, seeing him for the second consecutive time (third this season), stopped swinging at balls, while his Zone rate decreased last time out. He was forced to throw a fastball (four or two seamers) a season high 59.4% against them at a reduced velocity, while using his slider just 29.2% of the time (season low). On the other hand, the matchup is ideal in perhaps a neutral or better park against an offense with a 71 wRC+ against southpaws. Mentioned about is that Carrasco recently struck out 14 of them, but they have just an 11.2 K-BB% vs LHP.

Rick Porcello is coming off his worst start of the season (5.1 IP – 5 ER – 0 HR – 3 BB – 3 K – 27 BF). I see the upside in that start that he did not allow a home run. Oh, I didn’t tell you who he faced? It was the Yankees. It tied his shortest outing of the season in his first start, along with his highest walk total of the season and lowest strikeout total. All others have been at least six innings. His 6.4 inning average over the last two calendar years is best on the board. While the A’s are still a dangerous matchup in the most positive run environment on the board, I’d expect a bounce back. They’re 24.3 Hard-Soft% against RHP is the best split mark on the board tonight. His .274 xwOBA and 5.5% Barrels/BBE are both second best on the board.

Tyler Anderson has a 13.6 SwStr% (third best today) with a .311 xwOBA. His ground ball rate sits at 31.4% for the season, but has been above 47% in three straight starts. There does not seem to be an over-arching change in pitch mix or velocity over the three starts combined, though there did seem to be a spike in stuff for his start at Wrigley. The most important part is that he faces the Padres (26.1 K% vs LHP) in Petco. This will be the third such meeting this year, but the first in over a month with quality results both times (12 IP – 2 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 12 K – 48 BF).

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.

League AVG (.287 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.4 HR/FB)

Wade LeBlanc (.299 – 84% – 9.7) has been effective in two starts for the Mariners, but has not thrown more than 71 pitches in an outing this season. That said, the Twins do have a 25.6 K% vs LHP and he costs just $4K on DraftKings. That said too, there may be enough reasons to pay down for pitching tonight that you may not even need a $4K arm.

Sean Manaea (.186 – 84.3% – 11.1) followed up no-hitting the Red Sox with seven more innings without an earned run and seven strikeouts against Houston. Since then: 11.2 IP – 13 H – 8 ER – 2 HR – 0 BB – 8 K – 50 BF. One of those was the return match with Houston. With nothing really standing out in terms of velocity or swinging strikes, the short answer is that he’s not a Cy Young contender, but somewhere in between his last two and previous two. The Red Sox have been awful against southpaws (77 wRC+, 17.6 K-BB%), but this will be the second time they’re seeing him in less than a month in a much more hitter friendly park. The tough thing to say, is that I think he’s over-priced here. There’s some serious regression on the way even if you believe him to be an above average pitcher. He should not be nearly $10K in Boston.

Junior Guerra (.275 – 79.4% – 9.7) did strike out a season high mine last time out, but has the highest Z-O-Swing (43.1%) on the board, meaning he’s not really fooling anybody. The oddity in his Statcast numbers are a board low 4.9% Barrels/BBE with an 89.5 mph aEV and 44.5% 95+ mph EV. His 25.8 IFFB% is tops on the board (eight of them), but his 41.3 GB% is below average, leaving more opportunities for barrels at a high exit velocity. I’d assume that’s another piece that regresses. The Diamondbacks have a 10.2 BB% vs RHP, but we do have to recognize this is a quality matchup by wRC+ and strikeout rate (25.6% vs RHP), while the humidor has dampened the run scoring environment this year alone according to ESPN Park Factors (0.79 is third most negative run environment in baseball). It’s an extremely small sample, but there’s something to be suggested here. In fact, I’ve dropped the park factor for Arizona to neutral even though the three year rate is 117 via Seamheads.org coming into the game. That number just doesn’t seem right anymore. That conservative number would be the biggest drop in baseball and make this a top park adjusted matchup tonight. All of this said, it still makes him a SP2 on DK ($6) at best.

Sal Romano (.238 – 77.9% – 14.6) struck out a season high seven Mets in an early mid-week start where they couldn’t even send the batters to the plate in the right order his last time out. He had just a 6.3 SwStr% in that start and 4.7% for the season. There’s no upside here. His 94.1 Z-Contact% is, by far, the worst mark on the board.

Jake Odorizzi (.243 – 83% – 14.5) is an extreme fly ball pitcher (26 GB%) with a ton of popups (17%). He has 11 already (career high is 22). I can give him that and even about a half run on his estimators. However, they are all well over a run above his ERA and his 12.5% Barrels/BBE is the only mark above 10% on the board. The loss of Cano may not even affect him much today as a reverse platoon pitcher. Minnesota is neither a negative run environment or suppressive of right-handed power. Quite the opposite in fact. This may the worst park adjusted matchup on the board. The Mariners have just a 20.3 K% and 15.5 HR/FB vs RHP.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Mike Fiers is almost too cheap on DraftKings. Okay, he’s probably too cheap at $4.4K, but who has the guts to actually use him against the Tribe? His 8.8 SwStr% suggests some strikeout upside beyond his actual 15.2 K% and Cleveland has a 24.2 K% vs RHP…but also a 16.1 HR/FB. He’s allowed more home runs (seven) than walks (five).

Chris Stratton throws about 60% fastballs. He probably should throw more curveballs (15.6% with a 30.2 Whiff% via Statcast). He can get away with the 91 mph heater which produced ground balls just 36.1% of the time on contact in San Francisco (where he pitches tonight), but his 11.1 BB% is the same rate as his career and that’s a major problem, especially for his profile. The Reds are surging against slumping teams over the last week (Mets & Dodgers), but this park adjustment makes it one of the most pitcher friendly matchups on the board tonight. However, it might have the lowest strikeout potential (Reds just 11.5 K-BB% vs RHP). A high walk rate and the worst aEV on the board (91.5 mph) is not a good combination in any park. Still, the $5.7K price tag on DraftKings almost makes him an acceptable SP2 if paying up otherwise.

Ryan Yarbrough has the lowest 95+ mph EV on the board (24.7%), but also just a 7.1 SwStr% mostly out of the bullpen so far. He hasn’t thrown more than 88 pitches or five innings in any outing, which his cost adequately accounts for. The matchup is odd. The Royals play in a positive run scoring environment, but a power suppressing one (7.3 HR/FB a home). They also have a 15.7 K% over the last seven days and 18 K% at home, but a 23.8 K% vs LHP. In the end, he’s not going to go deep and I don’t believe in the strikeout rate.

Eric Skoglund throws some type of fastball 70% of the time to LHBs (55% to RHBs) and that could be a problem against a Rays’ offense that has improved against the pitch this year. Actually, everything might be a problem when you have a .382 xwOBA and 50.5% 95+ mph EV (both worst on the board). His estimators are well below his ERA because his 60% strand rate seems low. It doesn’t take into context the nature of the contact he’s allowed.

Peripherals (Pitcher)

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

Peripherals (Opponent)

K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.8 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.16 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Nine pitchers exceed the league average swinging strike rate by nearly a full point or more tonight.

ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.22 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.17 xFIP – 4.29 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Andrew Heaney has an elevated BABIP and just a 64 LOB%.

Rick Porcello has a 4.3 HR/FB. His sinker usage is up substantially at the cost of his four-seamer, which explains a double digit percentage point jump in his ground ball rate overall, but not necessarily the low rate of home runs per fly ball. The quality of his contact has improved radically overall. One consideration might be Statcast’s new “Meatball” statistic. He’s gone from 8% last year to 5.5% this season, suggesting a massive improvement in location overall. Nobody sustains a 4.3 HR/FB in this age however.

BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .287 BABIP – 43.1 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.1 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Andrew Heaney has just an elevated line drive rate to support his BABIP, despite the lowest aEV on the Statcast board by far.

Lance McCullers has a high BABIP, especially when considering the defense behind him, which has been much better than anticipated this season, probably due to the effectiveness of their shifting (and also maybe a smaller sample size because they strike everyone out). Now, the thing is that despite the miniscule line drive rate, which is crazy considering the BABIP and elite Z-Contact%, his 89.4 mph aEV suggests too many hard ground balls that may be getting through the shifts. This is interesting because the line drive rate is likely to go up and even more nuts considering the aEV.

StatCast Chart

All stats from BaseballSavant.com.

Andrew Heaney has the lowest aEV and near All-Star level estimators, however, the .333 xwOBA is slightly worse than league average wOBA (.316).

Rick Porcello has really turned it around this season. He’s on his way to his best season ever perhaps, even considering the Cy Young he won because his team scored a lot of runs a couple of years ago.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

While I feel like I can do more with a smaller slate, it sometimes has the downside of finding more faults. On one hand, this is a high upside board by SwStr%, but on the other, there are significantly concerning factors for each matchup. I’m not very confident in the rankings below and don’t think fading the high cost arms is a terrible idea, if you can find someone you’re confident in at a lower price. That last part may be the trick. I’m not even going to bother with overall rankings today because I have no confidence in them.

Value Tier One

Tyler Anderson has been one of the top bat missers on the board and faces an offense that misses pitches more often than anyone else and he costs $7.5K or less. He’s probably pretty easily my top projected point per dollar play on FanDuel for $6.9K.

Value Tier Two

Rick Porcello should bounce back tonight and has all the right indicators behind his turn around, but he still doesn’t miss a ton of bats and the A’s hit the ball hard, while he’s in the most difficult run environment on the board.

Value Tier Three

Carlos Carrasco has only struck out more than seven once and is the second highest priced pitcher on the board ($12.2K on DK). I’d consider a slight bump on FanDuel for $2.4K less. While he’s in a fine overall spot, it might slightly depress his strikeout upside. If he pops seven again, he probably needs seven shutout innings at least to cover his DK cost.

Patrick Corbin has a number of stats which make him an elite choice tonight because his overall work has been of that caliber this season. However, I don’t place him here confidently because the velocity drop scares the (expletive) out of me. We’re talking over two miles per hour. Sure, he still hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start and his swinging strike rate has been around league average even over his last three starts, but there’s certainly been a significant drop off in recent starts. What we can hope for is a spike back up (we saw it with Bundy yesterday) and his last effort a result of familiarity in back to back starts against the same team. If Brewers take the same approach as the Dodgers and spit on his slider and the fastball is still down, he could be in trouble.

Joey Lucchesi is above $8K and while concern may not be the right word, there are things to watch for that could be problematic for a five-inning pitcher tonight. This positive still outweigh those potential issues presently though. He’s got one of the top matchups along with one of the highest potential strikeout rate upsides in it on the board tonight. If I were more confident of six innings, I’d probably bump him up a tier too.

Lance McCullers costs $10K or less. He just had a streak of going deep into games snapped (seven innings in three of four until last outing) and he may be able to get seven innings again if he throws strikes. That’s the good news at a cost of $10K or less. The problem may be that his strikeout rate may not play up here. It’s been lower recently and the predominance of right-handed hitters in this lineup is probably going to lead him to throw his sinker often and his curve/change less. Expect 65-70% ground balls, which maybe keeps his pitch count in check, but maybe only around 20% strikeouts?

Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.

Andrew Heaney is talented and that’s quite problematic because this is really a difficult matchup. You almost wish he were more costly, in which case, he could be more easily ignored. There may be some value here, especially at $6.2K on DraftKings.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.