Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, October 1st

We finish up the season with our shortest slate in a while, just eight games on Saturday night and this is where I say Thank You to everyone who has read and supported this column throughout the season. The overwhelming positivity of the community has been greatly appreciated, even on days when I got them all wrong (and there were a few). I may not have been able to verbally respond to every comment, but always at least clicked the “+1 button”. Thank you to Cam, Cal and RG for giving me an outlet to express some otherwise potentially useless knowledge. It’s been a privilege to write for the community for another year. There may be one more post-season preview to come for each league sometime during the week.

Unfortunately, we might be going out on the ugliest slate of the year. I’m not expecting above average performances anywhere really. Collin McHugh has the highest strikeout rate on the board among those with at least 50 innings this year and he’s facing the Angels. I hate to go out this way, but we play the cards (or pitchers) we’re dealt.

Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.

Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.

Starting Pitching Main Chart

We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.

Pitcher Team Team
Def
SIERA
L2Yrs
IP/GS
L2Yrs
GB/FB
L2Yrs
Park
Run
Hm/Rd
xFIP
SIERA
L14
Opp Opp
Hm/Rd
Opp L/R
wRC+
Opp L7
wRC+
Aaron Blair ATL -0.9 5.85 4.57 1.07 0.96 6.58 6.02 DET 102 108 175
Archie Bradley ARI -6.1 4.66 5.15 1.66 1.07 4.33 4.64 SDG 78 81 109
Clayton Richard SDG -5.9 3.91 6. 3.72 1.07 4.04 5.63 ARI 98 109 72
Colby Lewis TEX 1.9 4.6 6.16 0.75 1.07 4.86 7.5 TAM 101 98 71
Collin McHugh HOU 4.2 3.97 5.94 1.19 0.92 4.14 4.68 ANA 102 99 110
Eduardo Rodriguez BOS 4.1 4.3 5.58 0.97 1.07 4.5 2.04 TOR 97 101 90
Hector Santiago MIN -5.8 4.78 5.5 0.62 0.99 5.33 6.4 CHW 99 104 122
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA -4.3 4.04 6.25 1.26 0.9 3.84 3.68 OAK 97 90 71
J.A. Happ TOR 2.2 4 5.79 1.22 1.07 3.97 3.76 BOS 122 111 75
Jake Odorizzi TAM -1.4 4.11 5.85 0.86 1.07 4.4 4.93 TEX 107 98 90
James Shields CHW 3.3 4.39 5.8 1.18 0.99 4.34 4.83 MIN 98 95 84
Jeff Hoffman COL -3.1 5.73 4.42 1.57 1.37 6.45 5.62 MIL 88 87 85
Jharel Cotton OAK -8.3 4.52 6.25 0.65 0.9 5.62 3.21 SEA 113 108 116
Jordan Zimmermann DET -5.1 4.13 6. 1.15 0.96 3.97 2.11 ATL 88 89 113
Tyler Skaggs ANA 6.5 4.19 5.33 1.26 0.92 3.38 HOU 103 98 98
Wily Peralta MIL -7.2 4.64 5.48 1.81 1.37 4.74 3.99 COL 101 96 52


Collin McHugh is probably the best pitcher on the board today. He has highest strikeout rate (over 50 innings) as mentioned above and has allowed just five runs over his last 24.2 innings, striking out 23 of 97 batters. Of course, he has a .238 BABIP, 85.4 LOB% and 2.9 HR/FB over that span, but he deserves some BABIP love after what he’s been through this year. The bad news is that he’s facing the Angels (16.4 K% vs RHP). However, Pujols is out and Trout may be too, which would them increase his value.

Eduardo Rodriguez has struck out 20 of his last 46 batters, including 13 Rays last time out after striking out 1 or fewer in two of his previous four starts. I guess he makes the post-season rotation. It moves his season strikeout rate above average and his double digit SwStr% is second on today’s board (more than 50 innings). He has just a 0.33 GB/FB and 40.9 Hard% in these last two starts, but when you’re dealing with as many strikeouts as batted balls, it’s less of a concern. He’s not going to continue striking out over 40% of batters though. He finishes the season at home against the Blue Jays, a matchup made difficult by a highly positive run environment, but surprisingly not so much by Toronto’s lack of prowess vs LHP.

Hisashi Iwakuma does not have much upside with a low strikeout rate facing a low strikeout offense (18.9% vs RHP), but may be the “safe” play tonight (not considering whatever lineups are posted). He does have a 17.0 K-BB% at home with just a 3.1 BB% since last season, which he’s retained fairly closely this season. Despite a decrease in his HR rate this year (12.1 HR/FB), he’s actually allowed a career high (28) due to an increase in fly balls (1.07 GB/FB). The great news is that he has the top park adjusted run prevention matchup on the board against a low power offense (10.0 HR/FB vs RHP, 7.4 HR/FB last seven days).

Jharel Cotton has gone at least 5.2 innings in all four starts with an 11.4 SwStr%. Although his 17.6 K% does not reflect that, he’s struck out batters above 28% of the time since reaching AA last year. He does have a 0.65 GB/FB, which is a bit of concern against a powerful Seattle offense (16.3 HR/FB at home), but has limited hard contact very well (1.4 Hard-Soft%) despite a HR in three of four starts.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)

Clayton Richard (.309 – 86.2% – 10.3) is a LHP facing the Diamondbacks in Arizona (35.1 Hard%, 17.6 HR/FB at home, 35.3 Hard%, 19.7 HR/FB vs LHP). The numbers quoted include 10 starts since moving into the rotation. He hasn’t pitched poorly, but the strand rate is unsustainable and unfortunately, he’s not in a good spot, even if the DBacks strikeout 23.6% of the time at home and vs LHP too. Players may still be able to consider him in a secondary role for just $4.5K on DraftKings, but without any high priced pitchers on the board, why would they?

J.A. Happ (.272 – 79.8% – 11.7) has a career high strand rate. The lower BABIP is not a concern with a career rate below .290 and a strong defense. After a nice run post-All-Star break, his strikeout rate is down to 16.1% over his last six starts with three or less and a hard hit rate above 35% in four of them.

Jake Odorizzi (.274 – 78.5% – 11.8) is running a career high strand rate and his 28 HRs this season marks the first time he’s surpassed 20. His 13.8 K-BB% is also the lowest of his career. Texas is merely a league average offense against RHP, but play strong in a highly positive run environment and with a well-balanced lineup, his reverse split probably doesn’t really help him out at all here.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Jordan Zimmermann threw just 35 pitches in his last outing and just 130 major league ones since the end of June. Even five innings might be a surprise here.

Archie Bradley faces a terrible San Diego offense (18.9 K-BB% on the road, 17.5 K-BB% vs RHP), but he faces them at home, which doesn’t make them a bad matchup, but much less favorable. He has an above average strikeout rate, but with a below average SwStr%. He’s walking 11% of batters and hasn’t gone more than five innings in three of his last four starts, including fewer than four in two of them.

Tyler Skaggs costs $9.6K on DraftKings in a spot where the Angels have absolutely no motivation to push a pitcher coming off a forearm injury, who last pitched over three weeks ago.

James Shields is missing bats again, has allowed just one HR over his last three starts and is in a decent spot at home against the Twins (24.3 K% on the road, 22.3 K% vs RHP), but his walk rate just hit double digits with a 34% hard hit rate this season.

Wily Peralta has had sort of a resurgence in the second half of the season, but we can’t take advantage of that in Colorado.

Colby Lewis has allowed 13 runs in 12 innings with five HRs and eight walks since returning. He has a 0.38 GB/FB with a 37.2 Hard% too.
Hector Santiago

Jeff Hoffman will likely be limited to 75 pitches the Rockies have announced. Is that a predetermined cautionary maneuver or just a comment on his skillset so far in a start at Coors?

Aaron Blair

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

Pitcher Team Split K% BB% Split K% BB% Split K% BB%
Aaron Blair Braves L2 Years 12.0% 11.0% Home 10.8% 13.4% L14 Days 9.3% 9.3%
Archie Bradley Diamondbacks L2 Years 20.1% 11.5% Home 20.7% 10.5% L14 Days 29.3% 17.1%
Clayton Richard Padres L2 Years 13.3% 7.3% Road 12.7% 6.8% L14 Days 5.8% 9.6%
Colby Lewis Rangers L2 Years 16.2% 5.3% Home 15.9% 5.7% L14 Days 11.1% 16.7%
Collin McHugh Astros L2 Years 21.1% 6.5% Road 19.8% 7.0% L14 Days 21.8% 9.0%
Eduardo Rodriguez Red Sox L2 Years 19.8% 7.5% Home 17.9% 7.2% L14 Days 43.5% 6.5%
Hector Santiago Twins L2 Years 19.5% 9.6% Road 18.2% 9.2% L14 Days 12.2% 6.1%
Hisashi Iwakuma Mariners L2 Years 19.0% 5.0% Home 20.1% 3.1% L14 Days 25.6% 7.7%
J.A. Happ Blue Jays L2 Years 21.1% 6.7% Road 20.8% 6.3% L14 Days 19.6% 3.9%
Jake Odorizzi Rays L2 Years 21.2% 6.9% Road 19.2% 6.6% L14 Days 15.8% 7.9%
James Shields White Sox L2 Years 20.8% 9.7% Home 22.2% 9.6% L14 Days 17.9% 8.9%
Jeff Hoffman Rockies L2 Years 11.8% 11.8% Home 4.9% 9.8% L14 Days 11.1% 16.7%
Jharel Cotton Athletics L2 Years 17.6% 3.3% Road 7.7% 3.9% L14 Days 25.6% 0.0%
Jordan Zimmermann Tigers L2 Years 18.1% 4.9% Road 18.9% 4.5% L14 Days 33.3% 0.0%
Tyler Skaggs Angels L2 Years 23.8% 10.0% Home 32.3% 12.3% L14 Days
Wily Peralta Brewers L2 Years 14.8% 7.9% Road 13.2% 9.1% L14 Days 19.6% 7.8%

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Opponent Split K% BB% Split K% BB% Split K% BB%
Tigers Road 22.2% 7.9% RH 20.9% 7.8% L7Days 18.1% 8.8%
Padres Road 25.8% 6.9% RH 24.9% 7.4% L7Days 24.1% 7.3%
Diamondbacks Home 23.6% 7.3% LH 23.6% 8.7% L7Days 26.6% 5.8%
Rays Road 23.5% 7.2% RH 24.3% 7.4% L7Days 29.9% 5.4%
Angels Home 16.2% 7.8% RH 16.4% 7.7% L7Days 17.4% 7.8%
Blue Jays Road 22.7% 9.8% LH 19.8% 10.0% L7Days 18.5% 13.5%
White Sox Home 20.4% 7.8% LH 21.8% 7.3% L7Days 21.6% 6.1%
Athletics Road 19.4% 7.8% RH 18.9% 7.6% L7Days 18.9% 7.4%
Red Sox Home 16.6% 8.7% LH 19.7% 9.4% L7Days 18.9% 10.4%
Rangers Home 18.8% 8.0% RH 19.7% 7.2% L7Days 20.3% 5.7%
Twins Road 24.3% 8.7% RH 22.3% 8.3% L7Days 25.1% 10.1%
Brewers Road 24.7% 9.7% RH 25.6% 9.4% L7Days 23.4% 6.4%
Mariners Home 21.1% 8.9% RH 20.0% 8.2% L7Days 21.1% 6.9%
Braves Home 19.5% 8.3% RH 19.7% 8.6% L7Days 25.0% 9.0%
Astros Road 22.5% 8.9% LH 23.6% 8.7% L7Days 22.1% 5.4%
Rockies Home 18.7% 9.0% RH 20.7% 7.8% L7Days 30.5% 2.9%

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Pitcher Team Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St%
Aaron Blair Braves L2 Years 30.1% 15.5% 9.3% 2016 30.1% 15.5% 9.3% Home 24.1% 13.3% 0.8% L14 Days 29.4% 15.4% 14.7%
Archie Bradley Diamondbacks L2 Years 37.0% 12.6% 20.5% 2016 36.6% 13.3% 19.2% Home 38.5% 17.1% 22.6% L14 Days 28.6% 0.0% 19.1%
Clayton Richard Padres L2 Years 25.4% 9.8% 4.1% 2016 25.6% 7.7% 3.7% Road 21.8% 14.7% -1.1% L14 Days 27.3% 0.0% 15.9%
Colby Lewis Rangers L2 Years 34.6% 9.7% 21.3% 2016 37.0% 11.2% 24.3% Home 33.5% 10.3% 21.8% L14 Days 30.8% 14.3% 15.4%
Collin McHugh Astros L2 Years 27.4% 10.6% 6.3% 2016 30.1% 12.3% 9.8% Road 30.6% 11.8% 11.6% L14 Days 31.5% 3.3% 9.3%
Eduardo Rodriguez Red Sox L2 Years 29.9% 10.9% 9.4% 2016 28.1% 11.4% 6.2% Home 27.2% 13.8% 5.0% L14 Days 40.9% 8.3% 22.7%
Hector Santiago Twins L2 Years 35.7% 11.3% 19.1% 2016 37.7% 12.4% 19.8% Road 34.9% 10.6% 18.3% L14 Days 47.5% 15.4% 32.5%
Hisashi Iwakuma Mariners L2 Years 30.2% 13.1% 13.7% 2016 32.3% 12.1% 15.6% Home 32.3% 13.9% 14.5% L14 Days 38.5% 33.3% 15.4%
J.A. Happ Blue Jays L2 Years 31.7% 10.5% 13.9% 2016 32.1% 11.7% 14.7% Road 32.1% 12.8% 13.9% L14 Days 29.0% 0.0% 10.6%
Jake Odorizzi Rays L2 Years 30.5% 10.6% 12.6% 2016 33.8% 11.8% 17.2% Road 30.1% 12.0% 13.0% L14 Days 34.5% 20.0% 13.8%
James Shields White Sox L2 Years 32.6% 17.6% 16.3% 2016 34.0% 17.5% 18.4% Home 31.9% 19.6% 15.5% L14 Days 27.5% 7.1% 2.5%
Jeff Hoffman Rockies L2 Years 36.1% 25.0% 16.5% 2016 36.1% 25.0% 16.5% Home 37.1% 15.4% 25.7% L14 Days 15.4% 0.0% -38.5%
Jharel Cotton Athletics L2 Years 26.4% 8.1% 1.4% 2016 26.4% 8.1% 1.4% Road 17.4% 0.0% -4.3% L14 Days 34.4% 11.8% 12.5%
Jordan Zimmermann Tigers L2 Years 28.9% 10.6% 9.3% 2016 27.7% 10.0% 8.7% Road 27.5% 9.7% 6.2% L14 Days 50.0% 0.0% 25.0%
Tyler Skaggs Angels L2 Years 33.6% 10.6% 11.7% 2016 33.6% 10.6% 11.7% Home 31.4% 0.0% 8.5% L14 Days
Wily Peralta Brewers L2 Years 33.3% 15.6% 15.6% 2016 33.8% 17.8% 16.9% Road 30.4% 10.3% 12.0% L14 Days 16.2% 0.0% -5.4%

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

Opponent Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St% Split Hard% HR/FB% Hd-St%
Tigers Road 33.7% 14.2% 15.7% RH 32.4% 14.2% 15.4% L7Days 30.4% 20.0% 13.4%
Padres Road 30.8% 14.1% 11.6% RH 30.1% 12.8% 11.0% L7Days 32.4% 15.7% 19.6%
Diamondbacks Home 35.1% 17.6% 20.0% LH 35.3% 19.7% 19.2% L7Days 31.9% 16.1% 15.0%
Rays Road 31.8% 14.5% 12.9% RH 32.5% 14.3% 13.0% L7Days 30.3% 5.1% 10.3%
Angels Home 29.6% 11.1% 10.7% RH 30.4% 10.0% 11.6% L7Days 22.8% 7.4% 2.4%
Blue Jays Road 33.0% 14.7% 12.7% LH 32.6% 13.2% 12.0% L7Days 21.4% 8.6% -0.6%
White Sox Home 29.0% 12.4% 8.3% LH 31.4% 13.7% 13.6% L7Days 28.4% 15.2% 6.8%
Athletics Road 30.8% 12.6% 11.0% RH 29.3% 10.0% 10.3% L7Days 35.0% 7.4% 20.6%
Red Sox Home 33.6% 13.1% 14.6% LH 31.0% 13.5% 11.1% L7Days 25.5% 9.8% 4.5%
Rangers Home 31.5% 13.8% 12.0% RH 31.1% 14.2% 11.9% L7Days 35.7% 12.3% 15.3%
Twins Road 30.6% 13.4% 11.0% RH 31.1% 12.9% 12.5% L7Days 27.9% 12.2% 6.1%
Brewers Road 30.6% 14.7% 10.6% RH 32.3% 15.4% 13.1% L7Days 26.1% 13.5% 5.2%
Mariners Home 31.4% 16.3% 12.4% RH 31.3% 14.9% 13.0% L7Days 31.6% 19.7% 9.7%
Braves Home 31.1% 7.7% 13.7% RH 29.6% 9.6% 11.2% L7Days 32.5% 17.5% 11.7%
Astros Road 33.4% 14.0% 16.2% LH 34.5% 14.5% 17.6% L7Days 27.9% 12.2% 11.4%
Rockies Home 35.1% 16.1% 18.7% RH 33.0% 14.7% 15.5% L7Days 33.8% 6.7% 10.8%

K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.12 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Pitcher Team K% Season SwStr% Season K%/SwStr% K% L30 Days SwStr% L30 Days K%/SwStr%
Aaron Blair ATL 12.0% 9.0% 1.33 9.3% 8.4% 1.11
Archie Bradley ARI 21.6% 8.0% 2.70 24.8% 9.7% 2.56
Clayton Richard SDG 14.1% 8.5% 1.66 14.3% 9.0% 1.59
Colby Lewis TEX 15.7% 8.3% 1.89 15.0% 9.1% 1.65
Collin McHugh HOU 22.4% 10.8% 2.07 21.7% 9.8% 2.21
Eduardo Rodriguez BOS 20.9% 10.4% 2.01 25.9% 12.7% 2.04
Hector Santiago MIN 18.2% 8.4% 2.17 13.3% 6.3% 2.11
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA 17.4% 7.7% 2.26 18.5% 7.3% 2.53
J.A. Happ TOR 21.1% 9.9% 2.13 17.2% 9.0% 1.91
Jake Odorizzi TAM 21.0% 9.3% 2.26 14.0% 6.8% 2.06
James Shields CHW 16.1% 9.1% 1.77 20.5% 12.3% 1.67
Jeff Hoffman COL 11.8% 5.4% 2.19 12.5% 5.2% 2.40
Jharel Cotton OAK 17.6% 11.4% 1.54 17.6% 11.4% 1.54
Jordan Zimmermann DET 14.8% 7.7% 1.92 18.2% 10.4% 1.75
Tyler Skaggs ANA 23.8% 8.2% 2.90 30.0% 10.0% 3.00
Wily Peralta MIL 16.9% 8.5% 1.99 19.8% 11.5% 1.72

ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.31 SIERA – 4.25 xFIP – 4.31 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Pitcher Team Season
ERA
Season
SIERA
DIFF Season
xFIP
DIFF Season
FIP
DIFF ERA
L30
SIERA
L30
DIFF xFIP
L30
DIFF FIP
L30
DIFF
Aaron Blair ATL 8.02 5.85 -2.17 6.04 -1.98 6.49 -1.53 6.75 6.02 -0.73 6.22 -0.53 6.68 -0.07
Archie Bradley ARI 5.15 4.5 -0.65 4.26 -0.89 4.31 -0.84 6.08 4.29 -1.79 3.97 -2.11 2.55 -3.53
Clayton Richard SDG 2.98 4.31 1.33 4.29 1.31 3.87 0.89 2.4 4.14 1.74 3.87 1.47 3.41 1.01
Colby Lewis TEX 3.93 4.94 1.01 5.11 1.18 4.79 0.86 9.75 6.34 -3.41 6.99 -2.76 9.06 -0.69
Collin McHugh HOU 4.53 4.02 -0.51 4.09 -0.44 4 -0.53 3.1 4.68 1.58 5.06 1.96 3.59 0.49
Eduardo Rodriguez BOS 4.68 4.49 -0.19 4.77 0.09 4.52 -0.16 2.89 3.79 0.9 4.52 1.63 3 0.11
Hector Santiago MIN 4.87 5.09 0.22 5.5 0.63 5.4 0.53 4.55 6.03 1.48 6.37 1.82 5.84 1.29
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA 3.96 4.46 0.5 4.44 0.48 4.32 0.36 3.68 4.26 0.58 3.89 0.21 4.24 0.56
J.A. Happ TOR 3.2 4.16 0.96 4.06 0.86 3.91 0.71 3 4.55 1.55 4.51 1.51 3.74 0.74
Jake Odorizzi TAM 3.77 4.3 0.53 4.53 0.76 4.35 0.58 5.4 5.32 -0.08 5.57 0.17 6.4 1
James Shields CHW 5.82 5.16 -0.66 5.25 -0.57 6 0.18 5.61 5.11 -0.5 5.58 -0.03 6.34 0.73
Jeff Hoffman COL 5.47 5.73 0.26 5.49 0.02 7.17 1.7 3.86 5.55 1.69 5.19 1.33 6.94 3.08
Jharel Cotton OAK 1.44 4.52 3.08 4.7 3.26 3.79 2.35 1.44 4.52 3.08 4.7 3.26 3.79 2.35
Jordan Zimmermann DET 4.88 4.73 -0.15 4.77 -0.11 4.29 -0.59 15.75 5.45 -10.3 6.74 -9.01 13.15 -2.6
Tyler Skaggs ANA 4.13 4.19 0.06 4.14 0.01 3.85 -0.28 2.25 3.46 1.21 3.29 1.04 4.06 1.81
Wily Peralta MIL 5.1 4.55 -0.55 4.27 -0.83 4.83 -0.27 3.51 3.94 0.43 3.71 0.2 3.73 0.22


Collin McHugh still has a .346 BABIP with a fine and now even favorable BABIP profile. It’s been difficult to find support for it all season long and has finally seen a drop, but much too late to make much of a dent in his season rate.

Jharel Cotton has just a .159 BABIP and 85.9 LOB%. However, consider his high SwStr% suggests a potentially break out in his K%, which would have an immensely positive effect on his estimators.

BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.3 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Pitcher Team Team BABIP Pitcher BABIP Diff Pitcher LD% Pitcher IFFB% Pitcher Zcontact
Aaron Blair ATL 0.292 0.305 0.013 0.223 14.3% 89.6%
Archie Bradley ARI 0.319 0.335 0.016 0.241 5.8% 87.4%
Clayton Richard SDG 0.295 0.340 0.045 0.165 2.6% 87.7%
Colby Lewis TEX 0.293 0.244 -0.049 0.183 6.2% 89.8%
Collin McHugh HOU 0.307 0.346 0.039 0.208 12.3% 87.1%
Eduardo Rodriguez BOS 0.293 0.276 -0.017 0.227 11.4% 86.9%
Hector Santiago MIN 0.320 0.262 -0.058 0.154 13.5% 86.2%
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA 0.291 0.304 0.013 0.211 10.8% 91.2%
J.A. Happ TOR 0.284 0.272 -0.012 0.224 9.6% 84.5%
Jake Odorizzi TAM 0.297 0.274 -0.023 0.191 9.3% 85.2%
James Shields CHW 0.299 0.307 0.008 0.215 6.9% 89.1%
Jeff Hoffman COL 0.317 0.311 -0.006 0.242 3.6% 94.9%
Jharel Cotton OAK 0.299 0.159 -0.14 0.153 27.0% 85.7%
Jordan Zimmermann DET 0.300 0.309 0.009 0.18 14.6% 89.5%
Tyler Skaggs ANA 0.301 0.326 0.025 0.215 6.4% 87.8%
Wily Peralta MIL 0.299 0.339 0.04 0.225 4.7% 91.0%

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

Not a single pitcher today would make our list on most slates. If you’re going to play Daily Fantasy Baseball, you probably need a pitcher (or even two), so we’ll still try to fling a few names at you, but I take no pride in this. Tiers are scrapped today with four potentially usable pitchers listed below in sort of a preferable order, but they’re all fairly close.

Eduardo Rodriguez may be the upside play tonight with the highest SwStr% on the board over the last month. These last two starts with 20 strikeouts have come against offenses that miss more than the Jays and the matchup is concerning, but the Jays haven’t really blasted LHP this season and he does cost less than $7.5K on either site. He did throw 113 pitches in his last start though, a season high. He did come back with 100 after his previous season high of 110 though.

Hisashi Iwakuma isn’t a high upside arm, but might miss enough bats to make him useful. He’s in an otherwise great spot tonight at home against the low power A’s, who are much worse against RHP than they are against lefties. He is the most expensive arm in consideration tonight at around $8K.

Collin McHugh has been pitching well, even if estimators are a higher than his ERA. The last four starts have been stronger after his first of this month was a mess in Texas. He does face the lowest strikeout offense in baseball tonight, but gets a bump to the top of this list if Trout is on the bench tonight along with Pujols.

Jharel Cotton is a riskier high upside play, but we’ll take upside wherever we can find it tonight. His fly ball profile is a bit of a concern against the Mariners, but his SwStr% and minor league track record are reasons for optimism here.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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About the Author

MTro86
Matt Trollo (MTro86)

Matt has written for ReupSports in the past where he developed his unique pitching charts. He probably watches and reads more about baseball than any normal human being would find enjoyable, accumulating an incredible wealth of mostly useless knowledge, while he patiently waits for his jedi powers to manifest. In addition to writing the Advanced Pitching Charts column for RotoGrinders, MTro86 also heads up the premium MLB News Alerts during baseball season.