Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, October 1st
We finish up the season with our shortest slate in a while, just eight games on Saturday night and this is where I say Thank You to everyone who has read and supported this column throughout the season. The overwhelming positivity of the community has been greatly appreciated, even on days when I got them all wrong (and there were a few). I may not have been able to verbally respond to every comment, but always at least clicked the “+1 button”. Thank you to Cam, Cal and RG for giving me an outlet to express some otherwise potentially useless knowledge. It’s been a privilege to write for the community for another year. There may be one more post-season preview to come for each league sometime during the week.
Unfortunately, we might be going out on the ugliest slate of the year. I’m not expecting above average performances anywhere really. Collin McHugh has the highest strikeout rate on the board among those with at least 50 innings this year and he’s facing the Angels. I hate to go out this way, but we play the cards (or pitchers) we’re dealt.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Blair | ATL | -0.9 | 5.85 | 4.57 | 1.07 | 0.96 | 6.58 | 6.02 | DET | 102 | 108 | 175 |
Archie Bradley | ARI | -6.1 | 4.66 | 5.15 | 1.66 | 1.07 | 4.33 | 4.64 | SDG | 78 | 81 | 109 |
Clayton Richard | SDG | -5.9 | 3.91 | 6. | 3.72 | 1.07 | 4.04 | 5.63 | ARI | 98 | 109 | 72 |
Colby Lewis | TEX | 1.9 | 4.6 | 6.16 | 0.75 | 1.07 | 4.86 | 7.5 | TAM | 101 | 98 | 71 |
Collin McHugh | HOU | 4.2 | 3.97 | 5.94 | 1.19 | 0.92 | 4.14 | 4.68 | ANA | 102 | 99 | 110 |
Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 4.1 | 4.3 | 5.58 | 0.97 | 1.07 | 4.5 | 2.04 | TOR | 97 | 101 | 90 |
Hector Santiago | MIN | -5.8 | 4.78 | 5.5 | 0.62 | 0.99 | 5.33 | 6.4 | CHW | 99 | 104 | 122 |
Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | -4.3 | 4.04 | 6.25 | 1.26 | 0.9 | 3.84 | 3.68 | OAK | 97 | 90 | 71 |
J.A. Happ | TOR | 2.2 | 4 | 5.79 | 1.22 | 1.07 | 3.97 | 3.76 | BOS | 122 | 111 | 75 |
Jake Odorizzi | TAM | -1.4 | 4.11 | 5.85 | 0.86 | 1.07 | 4.4 | 4.93 | TEX | 107 | 98 | 90 |
James Shields | CHW | 3.3 | 4.39 | 5.8 | 1.18 | 0.99 | 4.34 | 4.83 | MIN | 98 | 95 | 84 |
Jeff Hoffman | COL | -3.1 | 5.73 | 4.42 | 1.57 | 1.37 | 6.45 | 5.62 | MIL | 88 | 87 | 85 |
Jharel Cotton | OAK | -8.3 | 4.52 | 6.25 | 0.65 | 0.9 | 5.62 | 3.21 | SEA | 113 | 108 | 116 |
Jordan Zimmermann | DET | -5.1 | 4.13 | 6. | 1.15 | 0.96 | 3.97 | 2.11 | ATL | 88 | 89 | 113 |
Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 6.5 | 4.19 | 5.33 | 1.26 | 0.92 | 3.38 | HOU | 103 | 98 | 98 | |
Wily Peralta | MIL | -7.2 | 4.64 | 5.48 | 1.81 | 1.37 | 4.74 | 3.99 | COL | 101 | 96 | 52 |
Collin McHugh is probably the best pitcher on the board today. He has highest strikeout rate (over 50 innings) as mentioned above and has allowed just five runs over his last 24.2 innings, striking out 23 of 97 batters. Of course, he has a .238 BABIP, 85.4 LOB% and 2.9 HR/FB over that span, but he deserves some BABIP love after what he’s been through this year. The bad news is that he’s facing the Angels (16.4 K% vs RHP). However, Pujols is out and Trout may be too, which would them increase his value.
Eduardo Rodriguez has struck out 20 of his last 46 batters, including 13 Rays last time out after striking out 1 or fewer in two of his previous four starts. I guess he makes the post-season rotation. It moves his season strikeout rate above average and his double digit SwStr% is second on today’s board (more than 50 innings). He has just a 0.33 GB/FB and 40.9 Hard% in these last two starts, but when you’re dealing with as many strikeouts as batted balls, it’s less of a concern. He’s not going to continue striking out over 40% of batters though. He finishes the season at home against the Blue Jays, a matchup made difficult by a highly positive run environment, but surprisingly not so much by Toronto’s lack of prowess vs LHP.
Hisashi Iwakuma does not have much upside with a low strikeout rate facing a low strikeout offense (18.9% vs RHP), but may be the “safe” play tonight (not considering whatever lineups are posted). He does have a 17.0 K-BB% at home with just a 3.1 BB% since last season, which he’s retained fairly closely this season. Despite a decrease in his HR rate this year (12.1 HR/FB), he’s actually allowed a career high (28) due to an increase in fly balls (1.07 GB/FB). The great news is that he has the top park adjusted run prevention matchup on the board against a low power offense (10.0 HR/FB vs RHP, 7.4 HR/FB last seven days).
Jharel Cotton has gone at least 5.2 innings in all four starts with an 11.4 SwStr%. Although his 17.6 K% does not reflect that, he’s struck out batters above 28% of the time since reaching AA last year. He does have a 0.65 GB/FB, which is a bit of concern against a powerful Seattle offense (16.3 HR/FB at home), but has limited hard contact very well (1.4 Hard-Soft%) despite a HR in three of four starts.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Clayton Richard (.309 – 86.2% – 10.3) is a LHP facing the Diamondbacks in Arizona (35.1 Hard%, 17.6 HR/FB at home, 35.3 Hard%, 19.7 HR/FB vs LHP). The numbers quoted include 10 starts since moving into the rotation. He hasn’t pitched poorly, but the strand rate is unsustainable and unfortunately, he’s not in a good spot, even if the DBacks strikeout 23.6% of the time at home and vs LHP too. Players may still be able to consider him in a secondary role for just $4.5K on DraftKings, but without any high priced pitchers on the board, why would they?
J.A. Happ (.272 – 79.8% – 11.7) has a career high strand rate. The lower BABIP is not a concern with a career rate below .290 and a strong defense. After a nice run post-All-Star break, his strikeout rate is down to 16.1% over his last six starts with three or less and a hard hit rate above 35% in four of them.
Jake Odorizzi (.274 – 78.5% – 11.8) is running a career high strand rate and his 28 HRs this season marks the first time he’s surpassed 20. His 13.8 K-BB% is also the lowest of his career. Texas is merely a league average offense against RHP, but play strong in a highly positive run environment and with a well-balanced lineup, his reverse split probably doesn’t really help him out at all here.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jordan Zimmermann threw just 35 pitches in his last outing and just 130 major league ones since the end of June. Even five innings might be a surprise here.
Archie Bradley faces a terrible San Diego offense (18.9 K-BB% on the road, 17.5 K-BB% vs RHP), but he faces them at home, which doesn’t make them a bad matchup, but much less favorable. He has an above average strikeout rate, but with a below average SwStr%. He’s walking 11% of batters and hasn’t gone more than five innings in three of his last four starts, including fewer than four in two of them.
Tyler Skaggs costs $9.6K on DraftKings in a spot where the Angels have absolutely no motivation to push a pitcher coming off a forearm injury, who last pitched over three weeks ago.
James Shields is missing bats again, has allowed just one HR over his last three starts and is in a decent spot at home against the Twins (24.3 K% on the road, 22.3 K% vs RHP), but his walk rate just hit double digits with a 34% hard hit rate this season.
Wily Peralta has had sort of a resurgence in the second half of the season, but we can’t take advantage of that in Colorado.
Colby Lewis has allowed 13 runs in 12 innings with five HRs and eight walks since returning. He has a 0.38 GB/FB with a 37.2 Hard% too.
Hector Santiago
Jeff Hoffman will likely be limited to 75 pitches the Rockies have announced. Is that a predetermined cautionary maneuver or just a comment on his skillset so far in a start at Coors?
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Blair | Braves | L2 Years | 12.0% | 11.0% | Home | 10.8% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 9.3% | 9.3% |
Archie Bradley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 20.1% | 11.5% | Home | 20.7% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 17.1% |
Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 13.3% | 7.3% | Road | 12.7% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 5.8% | 9.6% |
Colby Lewis | Rangers | L2 Years | 16.2% | 5.3% | Home | 15.9% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 16.7% |
Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 21.1% | 6.5% | Road | 19.8% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 9.0% |
Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 19.8% | 7.5% | Home | 17.9% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 43.5% | 6.5% |
Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 19.5% | 9.6% | Road | 18.2% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 6.1% |
Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.0% | 5.0% | Home | 20.1% | 3.1% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 7.7% |
J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 21.1% | 6.7% | Road | 20.8% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 3.9% |
Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 21.2% | 6.9% | Road | 19.2% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 7.9% |
James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 20.8% | 9.7% | Home | 22.2% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 8.9% |
Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 11.8% | 11.8% | Home | 4.9% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 16.7% |
Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 17.6% | 3.3% | Road | 7.7% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 0.0% |
Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 18.1% | 4.9% | Road | 18.9% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% |
Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Years | 23.8% | 10.0% | Home | 32.3% | 12.3% | L14 Days | ||
Wily Peralta | Brewers | L2 Years | 14.8% | 7.9% | Road | 13.2% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 7.8% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tigers | Road | 22.2% | 7.9% | RH | 20.9% | 7.8% | L7Days | 18.1% | 8.8% |
Padres | Road | 25.8% | 6.9% | RH | 24.9% | 7.4% | L7Days | 24.1% | 7.3% |
Diamondbacks | Home | 23.6% | 7.3% | LH | 23.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 26.6% | 5.8% |
Rays | Road | 23.5% | 7.2% | RH | 24.3% | 7.4% | L7Days | 29.9% | 5.4% |
Angels | Home | 16.2% | 7.8% | RH | 16.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 17.4% | 7.8% |
Blue Jays | Road | 22.7% | 9.8% | LH | 19.8% | 10.0% | L7Days | 18.5% | 13.5% |
White Sox | Home | 20.4% | 7.8% | LH | 21.8% | 7.3% | L7Days | 21.6% | 6.1% |
Athletics | Road | 19.4% | 7.8% | RH | 18.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 18.9% | 7.4% |
Red Sox | Home | 16.6% | 8.7% | LH | 19.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 18.9% | 10.4% |
Rangers | Home | 18.8% | 8.0% | RH | 19.7% | 7.2% | L7Days | 20.3% | 5.7% |
Twins | Road | 24.3% | 8.7% | RH | 22.3% | 8.3% | L7Days | 25.1% | 10.1% |
Brewers | Road | 24.7% | 9.7% | RH | 25.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 23.4% | 6.4% |
Mariners | Home | 21.1% | 8.9% | RH | 20.0% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.1% | 6.9% |
Braves | Home | 19.5% | 8.3% | RH | 19.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 25.0% | 9.0% |
Astros | Road | 22.5% | 8.9% | LH | 23.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 22.1% | 5.4% |
Rockies | Home | 18.7% | 9.0% | RH | 20.7% | 7.8% | L7Days | 30.5% | 2.9% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Blair | Braves | L2 Years | 30.1% | 15.5% | 9.3% | 2016 | 30.1% | 15.5% | 9.3% | Home | 24.1% | 13.3% | 0.8% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 15.4% | 14.7% |
Archie Bradley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 37.0% | 12.6% | 20.5% | 2016 | 36.6% | 13.3% | 19.2% | Home | 38.5% | 17.1% | 22.6% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 19.1% |
Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 25.4% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 2016 | 25.6% | 7.7% | 3.7% | Road | 21.8% | 14.7% | -1.1% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 15.9% |
Colby Lewis | Rangers | L2 Years | 34.6% | 9.7% | 21.3% | 2016 | 37.0% | 11.2% | 24.3% | Home | 33.5% | 10.3% | 21.8% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 14.3% | 15.4% |
Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 27.4% | 10.6% | 6.3% | 2016 | 30.1% | 12.3% | 9.8% | Road | 30.6% | 11.8% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 31.5% | 3.3% | 9.3% |
Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.9% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 2016 | 28.1% | 11.4% | 6.2% | Home | 27.2% | 13.8% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 40.9% | 8.3% | 22.7% |
Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 35.7% | 11.3% | 19.1% | 2016 | 37.7% | 12.4% | 19.8% | Road | 34.9% | 10.6% | 18.3% | L14 Days | 47.5% | 15.4% | 32.5% |
Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | L2 Years | 30.2% | 13.1% | 13.7% | 2016 | 32.3% | 12.1% | 15.6% | Home | 32.3% | 13.9% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 33.3% | 15.4% |
J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 31.7% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 2016 | 32.1% | 11.7% | 14.7% | Road | 32.1% | 12.8% | 13.9% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 0.0% | 10.6% |
Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 30.5% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 2016 | 33.8% | 11.8% | 17.2% | Road | 30.1% | 12.0% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 20.0% | 13.8% |
James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 32.6% | 17.6% | 16.3% | 2016 | 34.0% | 17.5% | 18.4% | Home | 31.9% | 19.6% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 7.1% | 2.5% |
Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 36.1% | 25.0% | 16.5% | 2016 | 36.1% | 25.0% | 16.5% | Home | 37.1% | 15.4% | 25.7% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 0.0% | -38.5% |
Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 26.4% | 8.1% | 1.4% | 2016 | 26.4% | 8.1% | 1.4% | Road | 17.4% | 0.0% | -4.3% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 11.8% | 12.5% |
Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 28.9% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 2016 | 27.7% | 10.0% | 8.7% | Road | 27.5% | 9.7% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Years | 33.6% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 2016 | 33.6% | 10.6% | 11.7% | Home | 31.4% | 0.0% | 8.5% | L14 Days | |||
Wily Peralta | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.3% | 15.6% | 15.6% | 2016 | 33.8% | 17.8% | 16.9% | Road | 30.4% | 10.3% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 0.0% | -5.4% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tigers | Road | 33.7% | 14.2% | 15.7% | RH | 32.4% | 14.2% | 15.4% | L7Days | 30.4% | 20.0% | 13.4% |
Padres | Road | 30.8% | 14.1% | 11.6% | RH | 30.1% | 12.8% | 11.0% | L7Days | 32.4% | 15.7% | 19.6% |
Diamondbacks | Home | 35.1% | 17.6% | 20.0% | LH | 35.3% | 19.7% | 19.2% | L7Days | 31.9% | 16.1% | 15.0% |
Rays | Road | 31.8% | 14.5% | 12.9% | RH | 32.5% | 14.3% | 13.0% | L7Days | 30.3% | 5.1% | 10.3% |
Angels | Home | 29.6% | 11.1% | 10.7% | RH | 30.4% | 10.0% | 11.6% | L7Days | 22.8% | 7.4% | 2.4% |
Blue Jays | Road | 33.0% | 14.7% | 12.7% | LH | 32.6% | 13.2% | 12.0% | L7Days | 21.4% | 8.6% | -0.6% |
White Sox | Home | 29.0% | 12.4% | 8.3% | LH | 31.4% | 13.7% | 13.6% | L7Days | 28.4% | 15.2% | 6.8% |
Athletics | Road | 30.8% | 12.6% | 11.0% | RH | 29.3% | 10.0% | 10.3% | L7Days | 35.0% | 7.4% | 20.6% |
Red Sox | Home | 33.6% | 13.1% | 14.6% | LH | 31.0% | 13.5% | 11.1% | L7Days | 25.5% | 9.8% | 4.5% |
Rangers | Home | 31.5% | 13.8% | 12.0% | RH | 31.1% | 14.2% | 11.9% | L7Days | 35.7% | 12.3% | 15.3% |
Twins | Road | 30.6% | 13.4% | 11.0% | RH | 31.1% | 12.9% | 12.5% | L7Days | 27.9% | 12.2% | 6.1% |
Brewers | Road | 30.6% | 14.7% | 10.6% | RH | 32.3% | 15.4% | 13.1% | L7Days | 26.1% | 13.5% | 5.2% |
Mariners | Home | 31.4% | 16.3% | 12.4% | RH | 31.3% | 14.9% | 13.0% | L7Days | 31.6% | 19.7% | 9.7% |
Braves | Home | 31.1% | 7.7% | 13.7% | RH | 29.6% | 9.6% | 11.2% | L7Days | 32.5% | 17.5% | 11.7% |
Astros | Road | 33.4% | 14.0% | 16.2% | LH | 34.5% | 14.5% | 17.6% | L7Days | 27.9% | 12.2% | 11.4% |
Rockies | Home | 35.1% | 16.1% | 18.7% | RH | 33.0% | 14.7% | 15.5% | L7Days | 33.8% | 6.7% | 10.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.12 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Blair | ATL | 12.0% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 9.3% | 8.4% | 1.11 |
Archie Bradley | ARI | 21.6% | 8.0% | 2.70 | 24.8% | 9.7% | 2.56 |
Clayton Richard | SDG | 14.1% | 8.5% | 1.66 | 14.3% | 9.0% | 1.59 |
Colby Lewis | TEX | 15.7% | 8.3% | 1.89 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 1.65 |
Collin McHugh | HOU | 22.4% | 10.8% | 2.07 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 2.21 |
Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 20.9% | 10.4% | 2.01 | 25.9% | 12.7% | 2.04 |
Hector Santiago | MIN | 18.2% | 8.4% | 2.17 | 13.3% | 6.3% | 2.11 |
Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 17.4% | 7.7% | 2.26 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.53 |
J.A. Happ | TOR | 21.1% | 9.9% | 2.13 | 17.2% | 9.0% | 1.91 |
Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 21.0% | 9.3% | 2.26 | 14.0% | 6.8% | 2.06 |
James Shields | CHW | 16.1% | 9.1% | 1.77 | 20.5% | 12.3% | 1.67 |
Jeff Hoffman | COL | 11.8% | 5.4% | 2.19 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 2.40 |
Jharel Cotton | OAK | 17.6% | 11.4% | 1.54 | 17.6% | 11.4% | 1.54 |
Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 14.8% | 7.7% | 1.92 | 18.2% | 10.4% | 1.75 |
Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 23.8% | 8.2% | 2.90 | 30.0% | 10.0% | 3.00 |
Wily Peralta | MIL | 16.9% | 8.5% | 1.99 | 19.8% | 11.5% | 1.72 |
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.31 SIERA – 4.25 xFIP – 4.31 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Blair | ATL | 8.02 | 5.85 | -2.17 | 6.04 | -1.98 | 6.49 | -1.53 | 6.75 | 6.02 | -0.73 | 6.22 | -0.53 | 6.68 | -0.07 |
Archie Bradley | ARI | 5.15 | 4.5 | -0.65 | 4.26 | -0.89 | 4.31 | -0.84 | 6.08 | 4.29 | -1.79 | 3.97 | -2.11 | 2.55 | -3.53 |
Clayton Richard | SDG | 2.98 | 4.31 | 1.33 | 4.29 | 1.31 | 3.87 | 0.89 | 2.4 | 4.14 | 1.74 | 3.87 | 1.47 | 3.41 | 1.01 |
Colby Lewis | TEX | 3.93 | 4.94 | 1.01 | 5.11 | 1.18 | 4.79 | 0.86 | 9.75 | 6.34 | -3.41 | 6.99 | -2.76 | 9.06 | -0.69 |
Collin McHugh | HOU | 4.53 | 4.02 | -0.51 | 4.09 | -0.44 | 4 | -0.53 | 3.1 | 4.68 | 1.58 | 5.06 | 1.96 | 3.59 | 0.49 |
Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 4.68 | 4.49 | -0.19 | 4.77 | 0.09 | 4.52 | -0.16 | 2.89 | 3.79 | 0.9 | 4.52 | 1.63 | 3 | 0.11 |
Hector Santiago | MIN | 4.87 | 5.09 | 0.22 | 5.5 | 0.63 | 5.4 | 0.53 | 4.55 | 6.03 | 1.48 | 6.37 | 1.82 | 5.84 | 1.29 |
Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 3.96 | 4.46 | 0.5 | 4.44 | 0.48 | 4.32 | 0.36 | 3.68 | 4.26 | 0.58 | 3.89 | 0.21 | 4.24 | 0.56 |
J.A. Happ | TOR | 3.2 | 4.16 | 0.96 | 4.06 | 0.86 | 3.91 | 0.71 | 3 | 4.55 | 1.55 | 4.51 | 1.51 | 3.74 | 0.74 |
Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 3.77 | 4.3 | 0.53 | 4.53 | 0.76 | 4.35 | 0.58 | 5.4 | 5.32 | -0.08 | 5.57 | 0.17 | 6.4 | 1 |
James Shields | CHW | 5.82 | 5.16 | -0.66 | 5.25 | -0.57 | 6 | 0.18 | 5.61 | 5.11 | -0.5 | 5.58 | -0.03 | 6.34 | 0.73 |
Jeff Hoffman | COL | 5.47 | 5.73 | 0.26 | 5.49 | 0.02 | 7.17 | 1.7 | 3.86 | 5.55 | 1.69 | 5.19 | 1.33 | 6.94 | 3.08 |
Jharel Cotton | OAK | 1.44 | 4.52 | 3.08 | 4.7 | 3.26 | 3.79 | 2.35 | 1.44 | 4.52 | 3.08 | 4.7 | 3.26 | 3.79 | 2.35 |
Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 4.88 | 4.73 | -0.15 | 4.77 | -0.11 | 4.29 | -0.59 | 15.75 | 5.45 | -10.3 | 6.74 | -9.01 | 13.15 | -2.6 |
Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 4.13 | 4.19 | 0.06 | 4.14 | 0.01 | 3.85 | -0.28 | 2.25 | 3.46 | 1.21 | 3.29 | 1.04 | 4.06 | 1.81 |
Wily Peralta | MIL | 5.1 | 4.55 | -0.55 | 4.27 | -0.83 | 4.83 | -0.27 | 3.51 | 3.94 | 0.43 | 3.71 | 0.2 | 3.73 | 0.22 |
Collin McHugh still has a .346 BABIP with a fine and now even favorable BABIP profile. It’s been difficult to find support for it all season long and has finally seen a drop, but much too late to make much of a dent in his season rate.
Jharel Cotton has just a .159 BABIP and 85.9 LOB%. However, consider his high SwStr% suggests a potentially break out in his K%, which would have an immensely positive effect on his estimators.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.3 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Blair | ATL | 0.292 | 0.305 | 0.013 | 0.223 | 14.3% | 89.6% |
Archie Bradley | ARI | 0.319 | 0.335 | 0.016 | 0.241 | 5.8% | 87.4% |
Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.295 | 0.340 | 0.045 | 0.165 | 2.6% | 87.7% |
Colby Lewis | TEX | 0.293 | 0.244 | -0.049 | 0.183 | 6.2% | 89.8% |
Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.307 | 0.346 | 0.039 | 0.208 | 12.3% | 87.1% |
Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.293 | 0.276 | -0.017 | 0.227 | 11.4% | 86.9% |
Hector Santiago | MIN | 0.320 | 0.262 | -0.058 | 0.154 | 13.5% | 86.2% |
Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 0.291 | 0.304 | 0.013 | 0.211 | 10.8% | 91.2% |
J.A. Happ | TOR | 0.284 | 0.272 | -0.012 | 0.224 | 9.6% | 84.5% |
Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.297 | 0.274 | -0.023 | 0.191 | 9.3% | 85.2% |
James Shields | CHW | 0.299 | 0.307 | 0.008 | 0.215 | 6.9% | 89.1% |
Jeff Hoffman | COL | 0.317 | 0.311 | -0.006 | 0.242 | 3.6% | 94.9% |
Jharel Cotton | OAK | 0.299 | 0.159 | -0.14 | 0.153 | 27.0% | 85.7% |
Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.300 | 0.309 | 0.009 | 0.18 | 14.6% | 89.5% |
Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 0.301 | 0.326 | 0.025 | 0.215 | 6.4% | 87.8% |
Wily Peralta | MIL | 0.299 | 0.339 | 0.04 | 0.225 | 4.7% | 91.0% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Not a single pitcher today would make our list on most slates. If you’re going to play Daily Fantasy Baseball, you probably need a pitcher (or even two), so we’ll still try to fling a few names at you, but I take no pride in this. Tiers are scrapped today with four potentially usable pitchers listed below in sort of a preferable order, but they’re all fairly close.
Eduardo Rodriguez may be the upside play tonight with the highest SwStr% on the board over the last month. These last two starts with 20 strikeouts have come against offenses that miss more than the Jays and the matchup is concerning, but the Jays haven’t really blasted LHP this season and he does cost less than $7.5K on either site. He did throw 113 pitches in his last start though, a season high. He did come back with 100 after his previous season high of 110 though.
Hisashi Iwakuma isn’t a high upside arm, but might miss enough bats to make him useful. He’s in an otherwise great spot tonight at home against the low power A’s, who are much worse against RHP than they are against lefties. He is the most expensive arm in consideration tonight at around $8K.
Collin McHugh has been pitching well, even if estimators are a higher than his ERA. The last four starts have been stronger after his first of this month was a mess in Texas. He does face the lowest strikeout offense in baseball tonight, but gets a bump to the top of this list if Trout is on the bench tonight along with Pujols.
Jharel Cotton is a riskier high upside play, but we’ll take upside wherever we can find it tonight. His fly ball profile is a bit of a concern against the Mariners, but his SwStr% and minor league track record are reasons for optimism here.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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