Advanced Stats – Pitching: Thursday, July 20th
We’re tackling an odd Thursday with four day games, three with pre-one o’clock starts and then a five-game night slate, three on the west coast. That’s a 10-hour gap between more than half the games on the slate. Luckily, the majority of the quality arms appear on the night slate. Unless you’re playing the day slate. Then it’s probably not so lucky. In fact, there are no clear arms to attack tonight.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 3.8 | 4.64 | 5.09 | 41.0% | 0.89 | 4.46 | 6.13 | ATL | 91 | 89 | 82 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.5 | 4.01 | 6.52 | 48.7% | 1.02 | 3.97 | 3.88 | BAL | 96 | 87 | 115 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 5.8 | 3.94 | 6.06 | 37.9% | 1.06 | 4.03 | 3.35 | DET | 88 | 124 | 138 |
| Doug Fister | BOS | 7 | 4.78 | 5.58 | 45.4% | 1.13 | 4.99 | 7.57 | TOR | 92 | 90 | 70 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 6.6 | 4.17 | 6.11 | 50.9% | 0.89 | 4.17 | 3.31 | NYY | 100 | 117 | 67 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | -2.8 | 4.38 | 5.32 | 48.9% | 1.13 | 5 | 5.65 | BOS | 88 | 107 | 52 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | -3.2 | 3.73 | 5.71 | 52.4% | 0.97 | 3.49 | 2.45 | MIL | 98 | 96 | 74 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | -5.8 | 4.37 | 5.49 | 50.1% | 0.93 | 4.4 | 4.7 | SFO | 74 | 79 | 86 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -1.3 | 4.3 | 5.76 | 50.2% | 0.97 | 4.59 | 3.08 | PIT | 91 | 88 | 96 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | -3.5 | 4.55 | 5.46 | 45.6% | 0.91 | 4.44 | 4.88 | NYM | 94 | 103 | 112 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 7.4 | 3.85 | 5.8 | 56.2% | 1.02 | 3.89 | 3.89 | ARI | 79 | 102 | 84 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 1.1 | 3.65 | 5.58 | 49.2% | 0.89 | 3.46 | 3.5 | SEA | 112 | 105 | 91 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | -0.9 | 3.2 | 6.83 | 41.3% | 0.93 | 3.46 | 4.79 | SDG | 75 | 72 | 128 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 2.8 | 4.14 | 6.41 | 49.7% | 1.06 | 3.88 | 4.97 | KAN | 84 | 86 | 70 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | -2.5 | 4.34 | 5.58 | 39.3% | 0.89 | 4.15 | 4.37 | LOS | 120 | 108 | 153 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | -5.3 | 4.07 | 5.5 | 51.0% | 1.02 | 4.1 | 3 | CIN | 99 | 93 | 68 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | -1.4 | 4.73 | 6. | 43.7% | 0.91 | 4.77 | 4.02 | STL | 89 | 97 | 88 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | -4.6 | 4.35 | 5.55 | 49.0% | 1.02 | 4.15 | 5.43 | TEX | 80 | 78 | 45 |
Cole Hamels has thrown 15.1 innings of shutout ball over his last two starts and has struck out 17 of his last 75 (10 SwStr%) with just two walks. However, despite just one HR, he’s allowed a 29.1 Hard-Soft% over this span with an 87.2 mph aEV on the year. Baltimore continues to have major issues with LHP though (18.2 K-BB%).
Felix Hernandez is facing the second best offense against RHP (9.7 BB%, 16.8 HR/FB) and has allowed a slate high 10.4% Barrels/BBE. Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, in July, he has a 24.0 K% (10.3 SwStr%) with a -2.1 Hard-Soft%. There have been some remaining flaws (walks) and the overall results have not been perfect, but we also have to consider that a weary Yankees offense still hasn’t recovered from their marathon weekend in Boston, struggling in Minnesota (nine runs in three games) and now have to travel even further west to a difficult park in Seattle.
Luis Severino has allowed at least three ERs in four of his last six starts (4.70), but his 2.77 FIP and 3.33 xFIP with a 21.6 K-BB% over that span calm our concerns (11+ SwStr% in each of last four). Even the contact authority has not been terrible with a small rise in his hard contact rate above league average (32.4%), though his ground ball rate has fallen from above 50% to league average (45.5%) over this span as well. Seattle is a quality offense in a difficult park, that may allow us to consider this a slightly favorable spot for the pitcher.
Madison Bumgarner was unimpressive against the Padres in his first start back from injury, but not terrible and did throw seven innings (102 pitches) to relieve us of workload concerns. He did allow just six base runners, but two HRs against a poor offense with just five strikeouts (27 BF) on a 4.9 SwStr%. His velocity (89.7 mph) was down two miles per hour off his season standard and these last few things are a concern. He does get the Padres again though (19.5 K-BB% on the road, 25.7 K% vs LHP) in one of the top matchups on the slate.
Michael Fulmer has struck out just nine of his last 81 batters (four of his last 51), but has gone at least eight innings in three of his last four. Even if we’re not entirely buying into how he’s doing it, innings are important today and the Royals neither accept walks (6.3% vs RHP), nor hit for much power (9.1 HR/FB at home), which may allow him to toss a complete game tonight.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Danny Duffy (.304 – 76.3 – 7.1) is a matchup casualty tonight. The Tigers did just trade away their top bat against LHP, so check PlateIQ to see the confirmed lineup’s actual stats against LHP, but they still have plenty of RH thump. They have a team 25.7 Hard-Soft% against LHP with an 18.2 HR/FB. That’s not all J.D. Martinez. Still, this is a difficult omission that I’m not entirely sure is correct now.
Brandon McCarthy (.282 – 71% – 4.9) has been one of, if not the, top contact manager in baseball (84 mph aEV, 1.6% Barrels/BBE, 20.9% 95+ mph EV), though that’s not necessarily forward projecting and he’s sacrificed nearly half his strikeout rate to get there (14 of last 131 batters). A progressive thinker and constant tinkerer, it could be a conscious shift, but it certainly makes him less daily fantasy useful. That HR rate is just so unsustainable.
Mike Foltynewicz (.303 – 79.2% – 13.6) has an 87.3 LOB% and 8.3 HR/FB over his last five starts. There might be more to look at in a better matchup, but the Dodgers have punished pitchers in a difficult run environment at home this year (21.4 Hard-Soft%, 17.8 HR/FB) and he still has significant issues with LHBs (.375 wOBA this season).
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Wade Miley has just a 6.6 K-BB%, but I’m going to go ahead and call Texas so awful (26 K% on the road and vs LHP) that he’s nearly usable here at such a low cost.
Jhoulys Chacin allowed more than two ERs for the first time in seven starts last time out and still came away with a quality start. Over that span, he has a .235 BABIP and 91.9 LOB% though with a league average-ish 11.3 K-BB%. He’s in a top run prevention spot tonight in San Francisco, but a marginal strikeout one and is probably not an $8K pitcher, though it’s close here.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 20.7% | 9.8% | Home | 21.8% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 22.3% | 8.3% | Road | 21.9% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 3.9% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 22.9% | 6.8% | Home | 21.5% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 23.6% | 0.0% |
| Doug Fister | Red Sox | L2 Years | 16.0% | 8.1% | Home | 13.7% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 14.3% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 20.0% | 8.0% | Home | 20.1% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 6.5% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 22.7% | 11.3% | Road | 20.0% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 12.8% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.1% | 5.5% | Home | 19.9% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 0.0% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 19.3% | 8.7% | Road | 18.4% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 12.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 20.6% | 9.0% | Road | 19.4% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 31.9% | 8.5% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.8% | 9.5% | Road | 23.4% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 10.2% | 2.0% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 29.3% | 11.4% | Home | 30.6% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 10.0% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 24.5% | 7.4% | Road | 25.6% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 29.1% | 7.3% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 27.8% | 5.3% | Home | 27.4% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 7.4% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 19.2% | 6.1% | Road | 20.2% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 7.8% | 3.9% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 20.2% | 7.2% | Road | 20.9% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 7.4% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 20.2% | 7.6% | Road | 18.7% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 6.3% |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | L2 Years | 16.9% | 7.9% | Home | 17.5% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 7.5% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.1% | 8.5% | Home | 21.1% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 13.5% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Road | 19.5% | 7.5% | RH | 19.8% | 7.2% | L7Days | 23.4% | 4.7% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.2% | 7.3% | LH | 25.1% | 6.9% | L7Days | 20.4% | 8.8% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.5% | 9.1% | LH | 19.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 15.2% | 10.2% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 20.9% | 9.1% | RH | 20.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 20.2% | 11.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.3% | 9.2% | RH | 22.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 24.2% | 5.9% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.2% | 9.4% | LH | 15.7% | 10.6% | L7Days | 23.5% | 8.8% |
| Brewers | Road | 24.4% | 8.7% | RH | 25.1% | 8.6% | L7Days | 29.5% | 6.3% |
| Giants | Home | 19.7% | 6.7% | RH | 19.8% | 7.4% | L7Days | 21.6% | 7.3% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.2% | 9.2% | RH | 18.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 14.3% | 7.6% |
| Mets | Home | 19.4% | 8.8% | RH | 18.8% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.0% | 7.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.2% | 8.4% | RH | 22.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 21.1% | 11.3% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.3% | 9.1% | RH | 21.2% | 7.8% | L7Days | 20.4% | 5.7% |
| Padres | Road | 26.7% | 7.2% | LH | 25.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.9% |
| Royals | Home | 19.1% | 6.6% | RH | 21.0% | 6.3% | L7Days | 18.3% | 6.4% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.1% | 10.8% | RH | 23.0% | 10.8% | L7Days | 19.9% | 12.8% |
| Reds | Home | 22.2% | 9.0% | LH | 20.9% | 7.1% | L7Days | 25.0% | 9.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.2% | 8.4% | RH | 21.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.0% | 6.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.6% | 8.0% | LH | 26.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 19.8% | 6.3% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 30.2% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 2017 | 27.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | Home | 33.2% | 5.5% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 42.1% | 0.0% | 21.0% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.5% | 12.5% | 12.9% | 2017 | 36.6% | 8.8% | 23.5% | Road | 31.0% | 11.0% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 0.0% | 25.7% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 31.9% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 2017 | 28.1% | 7.1% | 10.2% | Home | 35.8% | 9.3% | 18.5% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 18.8% | 7.2% |
| Doug Fister | Red Sox | L2 Years | 31.4% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 2017 | 31.5% | 13.6% | 14.8% | Home | 29.5% | 7.7% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 18.2% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.8% | 17.6% | 11.6% | 2017 | 28.9% | 24.5% | 9.2% | Home | 31.0% | 16.5% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 12.5% | -3.6% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 32.2% | 15.1% | 13.7% | 2017 | 32.3% | 12.7% | 17.5% | Road | 34.3% | 23.8% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 18.2% | 3.6% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 31.7% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 2017 | 29.3% | 10.9% | 5.6% | Home | 32.5% | 11.3% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 43.8% | 0.0% | 37.5% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 31.3% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 2017 | 29.0% | 15.8% | 6.9% | Road | 33.3% | 19.4% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 22.2% | -11.7% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.5% | 13.4% | 10.3% | 2017 | 31.8% | 13.0% | 10.5% | Road | 32.8% | 14.6% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 25.0% | 21.4% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 31.1% | 14.3% | 13.0% | 2017 | 30.0% | 17.1% | 9.8% | Road | 37.3% | 20.9% | 18.4% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 0.0% | 2.3% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 30.1% | 22.2% | 9.5% | 2017 | 30.1% | 22.2% | 9.5% | Home | 25.9% | 20.0% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 28.8% | 15.4% | 6.9% | 2017 | 29.9% | 13.5% | 10.1% | Road | 29.2% | 7.8% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 30.1% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 2017 | 32.3% | 10.5% | 12.1% | Home | 30.6% | 6.6% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 29.3% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 2017 | 27.9% | 6.3% | 10.1% | Road | 26.2% | 9.8% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 29.2% | 14.3% | 11.3% | 2017 | 26.9% | 13.6% | 10.8% | Road | 27.6% | 17.1% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 8.3% | -7.6% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 35.3% | 15.9% | 19.2% | 2017 | 33.1% | 17.0% | 15.7% | Road | 34.2% | 20.4% | 16.6% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 16.7% | 6.6% |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | L2 Years | 34.6% | 9.9% | 16.2% | 2017 | 29.0% | 9.5% | 8.4% | Home | 37.3% | 13.2% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 11.1% | 6.9% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.5% | 16.2% | 13.2% | 2017 | 33.0% | 20.3% | 14.1% | Home | 30.5% | 17.4% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 37.5% | 2.7% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Road | 31.3% | 12.3% | 13.3% | RH | 30.6% | 11.6% | 11.8% | L7Days | 27.6% | 18.2% | 5.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 29.9% | 15.9% | 9.3% | LH | 35.0% | 13.0% | 16.7% | L7Days | 32.5% | 16.4% | 15.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 35.6% | 12.1% | 18.1% | LH | 41.4% | 18.2% | 25.7% | L7Days | 34.7% | 15.4% | 22.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.2% | 14.3% | 13.4% | RH | 31.1% | 14.8% | 10.8% | L7Days | 30.6% | 10.0% | 11.5% |
| Yankees | Road | 31.2% | 11.9% | 12.6% | RH | 31.6% | 16.8% | 12.8% | L7Days | 27.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% |
| Red Sox | Home | 35.1% | 8.8% | 17.0% | LH | 31.8% | 10.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 23.4% | 7.6% | 1.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.0% | 18.5% | 11.2% | RH | 33.7% | 19.9% | 14.5% | L7Days | 32.2% | 15.2% | 13.3% |
| Giants | Home | 25.1% | 6.0% | 3.5% | RH | 28.3% | 8.9% | 6.4% | L7Days | 26.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.8% | 9.4% | 8.4% | RH | 30.3% | 10.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 30.6% | 8.2% | 9.8% |
| Mets | Home | 33.6% | 10.8% | 14.7% | RH | 35.1% | 13.1% | 17.8% | L7Days | 33.9% | 13.6% | 13.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.0% | 13.1% | 10.4% | RH | 35.7% | 14.6% | 18.4% | L7Days | 27.7% | 9.1% | 5.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 28.9% | 12.6% | 9.7% | RH | 30.5% | 12.8% | 12.4% | L7Days | 28.1% | 17.7% | 8.3% |
| Padres | Road | 30.0% | 14.5% | 8.0% | LH | 29.8% | 12.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 31.7% | 17.9% | 13.3% |
| Royals | Home | 31.1% | 9.1% | 11.4% | RH | 31.9% | 11.9% | 12.3% | L7Days | 28.0% | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.5% | 17.8% | 21.4% | RH | 35.5% | 15.2% | 20.2% | L7Days | 42.0% | 17.9% | 29.0% |
| Reds | Home | 27.9% | 14.9% | 6.5% | LH | 28.0% | 15.1% | 7.8% | L7Days | 21.1% | 6.6% | -0.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.0% | 13.1% | 14.6% | RH | 31.7% | 13.6% | 13.0% | L7Days | 28.0% | 7.4% | 11.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.6% | 15.8% | 9.6% | LH | 30.8% | 14.3% | 9.8% | L7Days | 27.3% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 18.1% | 8.2% | 2.21 | 11.6% | 5.7% | 2.04 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 14.3% | 7.8% | 1.83 | 18.0% | 8.1% | 2.22 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 19.4% | 11.7% | 1.66 | 21.8% | 11.8% | 1.85 |
| Doug Fister | BOS | 18.3% | 8.1% | 2.26 | 18.3% | 8.1% | 2.26 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 21.0% | 9.0% | 2.33 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 2.49 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 19.9% | 10.0% | 1.99 | 13.5% | 7.9% | 1.71 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 22.3% | 8.4% | 2.65 | 26.6% | 9.4% | 2.83 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 20.1% | 8.5% | 2.36 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 2.23 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 26.7% | 11.6% | 2.30 | 34.4% | 14.6% | 2.36 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 21.4% | 9.1% | 2.35 | 16.5% | 7.9% | 2.09 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 29.3% | 13.0% | 2.25 | 29.3% | 13.0% | 2.25 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 28.1% | 12.1% | 2.32 | 29.2% | 13.0% | 2.25 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 23.7% | 9.9% | 2.39 | 18.5% | 4.9% | 3.78 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 17.6% | 9.2% | 1.91 | 17.3% | 8.1% | 2.14 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 20.2% | 8.7% | 2.32 | 26.4% | 9.9% | 2.67 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 21.1% | 10.8% | 1.95 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 2.16 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 16.2% | 8.0% | 2.03 | 14.8% | 7.7% | 1.92 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 19.2% | 7.4% | 2.59 | 15.7% | 7.2% | 2.18 |
Danny Duffy certainly projects for a few more strikeouts, maybe even more than he’s been generating over the last month.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 3.38 | 4.6 | 1.22 | 4.38 | 1 | 3.27 | -0.11 | 4.11 | 0.73 | 4.12 | 5.66 | 1.54 | 5.57 | 1.45 | 3.49 | -0.63 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.05 | 5.06 | 2.01 | 4.9 | 1.85 | 4.29 | 1.24 | 4.07 | 1.02 | 3.08 | 4.35 | 1.27 | 4.25 | 1.17 | 3.06 | -0.02 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 3.51 | 4.56 | 1.05 | 4.55 | 1.04 | 3.6 | 0.09 | 4.21 | 0.70 | 3.43 | 3.71 | 0.28 | 3.64 | 0.21 | 3.8 | 0.37 |
| Doug Fister | BOS | 6.75 | 5.52 | -1.23 | 5.91 | -0.84 | 5.9 | -0.85 | 4.76 | -1.99 | 6.75 | 5.53 | -1.22 | 5.91 | -0.84 | 5.9 | -0.85 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 4.2 | 4 | -0.2 | 3.84 | -0.36 | 5.07 | 0.87 | 3.35 | -0.85 | 3.72 | 4.22 | 0.5 | 4.13 | 0.41 | 5.17 | 1.45 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 6.04 | 5.08 | -0.96 | 5.07 | -0.97 | 4.92 | -1.12 | 5.59 | -0.45 | 7.3 | 5.64 | -1.66 | 5.71 | -1.59 | 5.89 | -1.41 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 3.06 | 3.93 | 0.87 | 3.56 | 0.5 | 3.31 | 0.25 | 3.55 | 0.49 | 2.42 | 3.41 | 0.99 | 3.11 | 0.69 | 2.42 | 0 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 4.33 | 4.36 | 0.03 | 4.24 | -0.09 | 4.49 | 0.16 | 4.85 | 0.52 | 2.37 | 4.45 | 2.08 | 4.39 | 2.02 | 4.39 | 2.02 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.27 | 3.41 | 0.14 | 3.23 | -0.04 | 3.17 | -0.1 | 3.12 | -0.15 | 3.23 | 2.74 | -0.49 | 2.45 | -0.78 | 3.3 | 0.07 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 3.4 | 4.43 | 1.03 | 4.52 | 1.12 | 5 | 1.6 | 4.93 | 1.53 | 3.56 | 4.52 | 0.96 | 4.38 | 0.82 | 4.22 | 0.66 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 3.41 | 3.85 | 0.44 | 3.75 | 0.34 | 4.79 | 1.38 | 4.31 | 0.90 | 3.41 | 3.85 | 0.44 | 3.75 | 0.34 | 4.79 | 1.38 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 3.4 | 3.29 | -0.11 | 3.11 | -0.29 | 3.09 | -0.31 | 2.84 | -0.56 | 4.45 | 3.15 | -1.3 | 3.03 | -1.42 | 2.7 | -1.75 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 3.18 | 3.69 | 0.51 | 3.8 | 0.62 | 3.34 | 0.16 | 3.31 | 0.13 | 3.86 | 4.79 | 0.93 | 5.1 | 1.24 | 6.28 | 2.42 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 3.06 | 4.29 | 1.23 | 4.08 | 1.02 | 3.21 | 0.15 | 2.82 | -0.24 | 2.15 | 4.21 | 2.06 | 3.93 | 1.78 | 3.45 | 1.3 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 3.84 | 4.52 | 0.68 | 4.51 | 0.67 | 4.51 | 0.67 | 5.60 | 1.76 | 2.59 | 4.18 | 1.59 | 4.43 | 1.84 | 3.91 | 1.32 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 4.66 | 4.02 | -0.64 | 3.81 | -0.85 | 4.22 | -0.44 | 5.56 | 0.90 | 3.18 | 3.21 | 0.03 | 2.65 | -0.53 | 2.5 | -0.68 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 4.5 | 4.82 | 0.32 | 4.65 | 0.15 | 4.08 | -0.42 | 6.64 | 2.14 | 5.47 | 4.94 | -0.53 | 4.69 | -0.78 | 3.86 | -1.61 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 5.4 | 4.97 | -0.43 | 4.58 | -0.82 | 5.26 | -0.14 | 5.58 | 0.18 | 9 | 5.54 | -3.46 | 5.38 | -3.62 | 6.63 | -2.37 |
Cole Hamels has a .218 BABIP and 8.8 HR/FB. Last year it was an enormous strand rate that kept his ERA down for most the season before regressing in the second half. This year, he has a new bag of tricks.
Michael Fulmer has a .266 BABIP, well below his defense’s allowed rate with a solid, but not spectacular profile. He doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact (27.4% 95+ mph EV), but we can’t expect both the BABIP and a 6.3 HR/FB to sustain off of that.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 0.280 | 0.282 | 0.002 | 43.4% | 0.234 | 21.0% | 87.4% | 84 | 1.60% | 20.90% | 249 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.290 | 0.218 | -0.072 | 48.9% | 0.184 | 8.8% | 89.9% | 87.2 | 3.40% | 32.60% | 175 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.298 | 0.304 | 0.006 | 41.0% | 0.203 | 11.1% | 86.0% | 86.1 | 4.90% | 28.40% | 264 |
| Doug Fister | BOS | 0.306 | 0.333 | 0.027 | 31.4% | 0.255 | 9.1% | 89.6% | 86.7 | 9.30% | 38.90% | 54 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 0.278 | 0.333 | 0.055 | 46.8% | 0.246 | 10.2% | 90.4% | 86.5 | 10.40% | 31.80% | 173 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 0.305 | 0.329 | 0.024 | 44.3% | 0.184 | 7.6% | 87.8% | 87.1 | 7.40% | 33.60% | 217 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 0.306 | 0.337 | 0.031 | 52.3% | 0.238 | 8.7% | 89.2% | 84.9 | 5.10% | 29.80% | 198 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.307 | 0.288 | -0.019 | 53.0% | 0.17 | 13.7% | 89.3% | 85.9 | 6.20% | 28.30% | 321 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.299 | 0.330 | 0.031 | 50.3% | 0.2 | 5.4% | 85.5% | 85.5 | 4.40% | 32.40% | 315 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.296 | 0.230 | -0.066 | 43.6% | 0.178 | 9.4% | 81.8% | 86.4 | 7.20% | 30.30% | 307 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 0.293 | 0.284 | -0.009 | 56.2% | 0.068 | 7.4% | 83.0% | 87.2 | 4.10% | 35.60% | 73 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.289 | 0.293 | 0.004 | 51.5% | 0.181 | 10.1% | 84.9% | 87.1 | 6.00% | 34.90% | 298 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.316 | 0.263 | -0.053 | 45.4% | 0.155 | 10.5% | 88.2% | 86.3 | 5.10% | 32.30% | 99 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.304 | 0.266 | -0.038 | 50.4% | 0.198 | 11.7% | 88.2% | 85.6 | 4.50% | 27.40% | 376 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.292 | 0.303 | 0.011 | 38.7% | 0.242 | 6.4% | 85.4% | 86.6 | 6.20% | 31.80% | 305 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.293 | 0.348 | 0.055 | 50.3% | 0.205 | 11.0% | 86.9% | 88.7 | 7.50% | 36.80% | 345 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 0.320 | 0.323 | 0.003 | 45.0% | 0.225 | 7.1% | 89.1% | 85.9 | 5.30% | 35.90% | 131 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 0.313 | 0.348 | 0.035 | 52.4% | 0.224 | 8.1% | 90.8% | 87.5 | 6.40% | 36.00% | 297 |
Felix Hernandez has been not entirely healthy and fairly hittable for a decent portion of the season. That has changed significantly over his last three starts (.244 BABIP).
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Luis Severino (1t) has suffered through a bit of a decline when players are putting the ball in play over the most recent month, but it’s not terrible and his peripherals have been as strong as ever. Perhaps the park upgrade helps him a bit too.
Value Tier Two
Madison Bumgarner (1t) managed a full workload in his first start back from a significant shoulder injury, but some of the concerns may have been masked by a poor quality opponent. There were some issues with velocity and SwStr%. However, we can’t ignore him on a five-game slate and he faces the same poor opponent again.
Felix Hernandez has improved his strikeout rate with much weaker contact in July. He’s still nowhere near peak form, but it’s usable at a reasonable cost in this spot, which may be a bit better than it looks considering the opponent’s chaotic schedule over the last week.
Value Tier Three
There are no third tier arms tonight to further illustrate the gap between the pitchers above and below.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Michael Fulmer is a high cost arm who has seen his strikeouts drop well below average recently. That’s a concern, but he’s managed contact well and gone very deep into games. Kansas City is a matchup in which he may at least be likely to do so again, as much as I hate paying up for contact management alone.
Cole Hamels is still allowing too much awfully hard contact, but at least his peripherals have improved greatly. While I’m still not very fond of paying $9K for him even on a smaller slate, the Orioles only put the ball in play 70% of the time on average against LHP.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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