Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, June 1st
We’ll list the pitchers for all games today with the afternoon games kicking off at noon, but we are looking at just a four game night slate. No first time starters for the first time in a few days though. You should know all these guys, although one rarely useful pitcher does get his first start of the season.
As with yesterday, this is a pretty easy slate to decipher. The highest priced guys are the ones you want to use. It rarely works out that way, but so be it. At least I can try to tell you why below.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 9.1 | 5.2 | 4.22 | 40.0% | 0.91 | 9.47 | 4.55 | ANA | 107 | 93 | 89 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -11.6 | 4.31 | 5.91 | 45.1% | 0.98 | 4 | 3.96 | LOS | 93 | 112 | 117 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | -5.6 | 4.88 | 4.29 | 39.1% | 0.91 | 4.24 | 4.51 | MIN | 102 | 109 | 100 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 1 | 4.25 | 5.07 | 42.0% | 0.98 | 4.01 | 3.01 | STL | 94 | 100 | 72 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 1.3 | 4.37 | 5.82 | 48.2% | 1.03 | 4.61 | 3.12 | TOR | 100 | 93 | 153 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -4 | 4.49 | 5.21 | 37.7% | 0.91 | 4.77 | 4.15 | NYM | 85 | 100 | 115 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | -5.5 | 3.44 | 6.73 | 42.0% | 1.09 | 3.63 | OAK | 83 | 104 | 80 | |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 5.1 | 4.23 | 5.61 | 36.8% | 1.02 | 4.36 | 4.25 | BAL | 89 | 95 | 78 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 4.7 | 4.64 | 5.56 | 48.9% | 0.94 | 4.6 | ARI | 76 | 78 | 72 | |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | -14.3 | 4.4 | 5.62 | 35.8% | 1.09 | 4.62 | 6.07 | CLE | 106 | 105 | 115 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 0.7 | 4.81 | 5.72 | 61.4% | 0.89 | 5.26 | 5.14 | SEA | 109 | 80 | 121 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -2 | 4.29 | 6.13 | 32.8% | 1.03 | 4.41 | 2.15 | NYY | 108 | 120 | 101 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | -3.5 | 4.16 | 5.79 | 49.4% | 1.02 | 3.98 | 4.38 | BOS | 112 | 111 | 110 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 6.7 | 5.05 | 5.35 | 46.0% | 0.89 | 5.1 | 5.5 | COL | 88 | 81 | 58 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -4.9 | 3.54 | 6.55 | 46.6% | 0.94 | 3.5 | 2.66 | MIA | 96 | 94 | 148 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 1.1 | 4.34 | 5.46 | 50.0% | 0.91 | 4.35 | 5.05 | MIL | 99 | 99 | 84 |
Eduardo Rodriguez did not allow a run in his last start, but his three walks with four strikeouts were his worst effort in over a month. We’re still looking at a 26.6 K% and not a lot of hard contact (27.9%) against what’s been a below average Baltimore offense, despite their outbreak last night. The 33.8 GB% is still dangerous in this park. The Orioles have a 24.4 K% vs LHP, but also a 36.1 Hard%. Baltimore does also have just a 90 sOPS+ (Baseball-Reference) against fly ball pitchers too.
Marco Estrada has a career high 27.9 K% and 12.6 SwStr%. While he’s generating one of his lower hard contact rates (27.9% as well), his 7.1 IFFB% is also the lowest of his career as well. None the less, his 21.8 K-BB% is eighth best in baseball. He’s struck out at least eight in three of his last four with at least six innings in 10 of his 11 starts this year. Now, for the bad news. He has the toughest matchup on the slate. The Yankees have a 17.0 HR/FB vs RHP and are the top offense in baseball (132 sOPS+) against fly ball pitchers, while he’s allowed a HR in five straight starts.
Zack Greinke is mocking velocity. He did tie a season high with five runs allowed in Milwaukee last time out with his lowest strikeout total (six) in over a month, but had a season high 24.7 SwStr% and hasn’t been below 10% since his first start of the season (9.8%). His 24.7 K-BB% is third best in the majors, meaning you can live with a 37.1 Hard% and 8.1% Barrels/BBE with the 11 HRs he’s allowed. It’s even better that he’s on the road in a big park. It’s not a bad matchup, but the Marlins are hot (22.2 HR/FB over the last week).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Wade Miley (.295 – 84.5% – 18.9) hasn’t had terrible results this May, but his strikeout rate has cratered. We knew that his SwStr% couldn’t support his early season strikeout rate, but everything has taken a deep nose dive in May. He struck out three or fewer in four of his five starts last month.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jeff Locke makes his first start for Miami after rehabbing from a shoulder injury. In four minor league starts (all below AAA), he struck out 22 of 81 batters with just two walks and two HRs. He has just a 7.4 career K-BB% in over 600 innings, so 20 innings below AAA is not going to change our minds. He does have the top matchup on the slate though. Arizona has a 25.1 K% on the road and 0.5 Hard-Soft% over the last week, while being one of the worst offenses in baseball against LHP after being one of the best last year with generally the same lineup of predominantly RH bats.
C.C. Sabathia has struck out 19 of his last 73 batters while allowing just four runs (three earned) over his last 18 innings, but has a hard hit rate of 38% or harder in seven of his last eight starts and faces a newly healthy Toronto lineup that’s been one of the hottest in the majors. They have a 14.8 K% and 21.7 HR/FB over the last week.
Alex Meyer can not support a strikeout rate above 25% with a below average SwStr% and is sitting on a 16.8 BB%.
Adalberto Mejia misses bats at a reasonable, but below average rate. He also issues too many walks and has surpassed five innings just once in five starts.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 17.6% | 12.0% | Road | 0.0% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 8.2% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.1% | 7.3% | Home | 19.4% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 7.7% |
| Alex Meyer | Angels | L2 Years | 25.1% | 15.9% | Home | 25.0% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 19.1% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 23.8% | 10.6% | Road | 21.0% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 4.7% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.2% | 8.5% | Road | 17.8% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 31.9% | 8.5% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.8% | 7.8% | Road | 18.5% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 12.8% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 26.2% | 6.4% | Home | 26.6% | 7.5% | L14 Days | ||
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.3% | 8.2% | Road | 23.9% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 7.3% |
| Jeff Locke | Marlins | L2 Years | 14.8% | 7.8% | Home | 14.8% | 7.2% | L14 Days | ||
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 20.7% | 7.5% | Road | 23.1% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 13.6% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 14.6% | 10.5% | Road | 12.6% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 8.0% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 21.8% | 7.9% | Home | 25.0% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 3.9% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.6% | 8.1% | Home | 22.0% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 9.4% | 7.6% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 15.6% | 10.4% | Home | 16.1% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 16.3% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 23.4% | 5.3% | Road | 23.4% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 5.7% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 21.5% | 10.5% | Home | 22.6% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 14.3% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | Home | 17.8% | 8.4% | LH | 19.1% | 9.5% | L7Days | 18.1% | 9.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.8% | 10.4% | RH | 22.9% | 10.2% | L7Days | 28.2% | 11.2% |
| Twins | Road | 20.9% | 9.3% | RH | 22.3% | 10.6% | L7Days | 26.2% | 10.4% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.3% | 9.7% | RH | 20.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.1% | 6.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.4% | 8.5% | LH | 22.2% | 11.0% | L7Days | 14.8% | 10.5% |
| Mets | Home | 19.5% | 9.5% | RH | 19.1% | 9.2% | L7Days | 19.1% | 7.3% |
| Athletics | Road | 25.3% | 8.7% | RH | 24.4% | 9.1% | L7Days | 35.0% | 6.5% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.9% | 8.1% | LH | 24.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 28.4% | 5.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 25.1% | 8.3% | LH | 22.8% | 7.2% | L7Days | 22.4% | 7.1% |
| Indians | Home | 19.8% | 9.8% | RH | 21.0% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.8% | 8.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 19.5% | 10.3% | LH | 19.3% | 10.1% | L7Days | 21.1% | 8.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.3% | 9.1% | RH | 22.4% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.2% | 9.4% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.5% | 9.5% | LH | 14.7% | 10.3% | L7Days | 19.8% | 10.3% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.2% | 7.3% | RH | 21.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.3% | 6.3% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.7% | 8.4% | RH | 20.2% | 6.9% | L7Days | 17.4% | 9.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.0% | 8.7% | RH | 24.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 25.2% | 10.1% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 30.7% | 12.9% | 10.7% | 2017 | 28.6% | 15.4% | 6.4% | Road | 36.8% | 0.0% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 15.4% | 16.7% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.9% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 2017 | 30.7% | 7.8% | 11.4% | Home | 30.0% | 5.0% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | -5.6% |
| Alex Meyer | Angels | L2 Years | 35.3% | 11.9% | 18.7% | 2017 | 30.5% | 9.5% | 13.5% | Home | 33.9% | 8.3% | 13.9% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 0.0% | 44.4% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 31.2% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 2017 | 27.3% | 7.9% | 2.3% | Road | 26.3% | 3.6% | 1.0% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.8% | 14.5% | 6.5% | 2017 | 34.5% | 15.1% | 13.6% | Road | 26.6% | 9.9% | 2.4% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 18.2% | 32.2% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.6% | 13.6% | 16.8% | 2017 | 35.2% | 7.7% | 17.3% | Road | 35.3% | 15.2% | 19.8% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 25.0% | 3.7% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 28.4% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 2017 | 42.3% | 17.9% | 23.1% | Home | 29.1% | 12.6% | 6.6% | L14 Days | |||
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.3% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 2017 | 27.9% | 8.2% | 8.6% | Road | 28.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 5.9% | 10.3% |
| Jeff Locke | Marlins | L2 Years | 28.6% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 2017 | Home | 30.5% | 10.8% | 14.7% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 32.1% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 2017 | 34.6% | 11.5% | 15.4% | Road | 33.7% | 8.7% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 46.2% | 9.1% | 30.8% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 34.1% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 2017 | 34.1% | 11.4% | 12.1% | Road | 36.8% | 12.5% | 20.7% | L14 Days | 42.1% | 18.8% | 28.9% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.7% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 2017 | 27.9% | 10.6% | 10.4% | Home | 30.0% | 10.0% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 12.5% | -10.0% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.4% | 14.9% | 12.2% | 2017 | 37.3% | 18.9% | 17.7% | Home | 31.7% | 17.8% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 34.1% | 22.2% | 4.5% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 27.4% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 2017 | 32.4% | 14.3% | 15.1% | Home | 28.5% | 13.2% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 43.8% | 28.6% | 28.2% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.3% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 2017 | 37.1% | 14.7% | 16.7% | Road | 26.9% | 15.1% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 13.3% | 15.6% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 35.7% | 14.6% | 16.4% | 2017 | 35.7% | 14.6% | 16.4% | Home | 35.6% | 17.4% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 11.1% | 29.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | Home | 28.3% | 14.0% | 8.5% | LH | 30.2% | 8.1% | 14.0% | L7Days | 30.3% | 14.8% | 10.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 33.0% | 9.5% | 17.0% | RH | 35.0% | 13.6% | 20.5% | L7Days | 36.1% | 17.2% | 21.9% |
| Twins | Road | 32.4% | 12.7% | 17.0% | RH | 33.7% | 13.6% | 18.5% | L7Days | 36.4% | 13.1% | 23.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 30.2% | 9.8% | 9.5% | RH | 30.7% | 12.1% | 11.4% | L7Days | 32.0% | 10.0% | 9.3% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 30.3% | 13.4% | 10.8% | LH | 29.7% | 12.9% | 10.4% | L7Days | 33.1% | 21.7% | 15.0% |
| Mets | Home | 32.6% | 8.2% | 13.2% | RH | 35.2% | 11.7% | 17.6% | L7Days | 43.3% | 11.1% | 26.2% |
| Athletics | Road | 36.0% | 11.9% | 17.9% | RH | 35.8% | 16.1% | 19.7% | L7Days | 32.8% | 16.3% | 15.2% |
| Orioles | Home | 27.3% | 12.3% | 6.4% | LH | 36.1% | 11.7% | 18.0% | L7Days | 26.9% | 8.2% | 3.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 28.7% | 13.0% | 8.2% | LH | 31.2% | 13.9% | 16.0% | L7Days | 26.0% | 10.0% | 0.5% |
| Indians | Home | 31.8% | 14.5% | 16.2% | RH | 34.4% | 13.0% | 18.4% | L7Days | 31.3% | 17.3% | 18.4% |
| Mariners | Home | 28.9% | 10.4% | 8.6% | LH | 29.9% | 6.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 35.3% | 7.8% | 19.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 30.3% | 12.5% | 12.2% | RH | 31.3% | 17.0% | 11.9% | L7Days | 30.9% | 9.7% | 10.5% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.9% | 12.5% | 15.3% | LH | 33.7% | 12.7% | 10.6% | L7Days | 35.0% | 16.9% | 18.0% |
| Rockies | Road | 30.7% | 12.7% | 10.4% | RH | 30.3% | 13.3% | 9.9% | L7Days | 27.0% | 9.7% | 3.7% |
| Marlins | Home | 32.2% | 16.2% | 10.5% | RH | 31.1% | 14.0% | 10.6% | L7Days | 31.3% | 22.2% | 8.4% |
| Brewers | Road | 29.8% | 17.0% | 11.2% | RH | 33.6% | 18.3% | 14.5% | L7Days | 33.9% | 9.7% | 15.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 20.0% | 8.4% | 2.38 | 18.4% | 7.2% | 2.56 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 19.5% | 8.4% | 2.32 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 2.07 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 26.2% | 8.0% | 3.28 | 27.8% | 8.8% | 3.16 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 22.0% | 9.0% | 2.44 | 22.9% | 10.1% | 2.27 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 18.5% | 9.7% | 1.91 | 21.1% | 8.0% | 2.64 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 21.9% | 10.4% | 2.11 | 23.7% | 10.4% | 2.28 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 26.0% | 11.6% | 2.24 | 23.5% | 14.6% | 1.61 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 26.6% | 12.1% | 2.20 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 2.26 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | ||||||
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.03 | 30.0% | 13.1% | 2.29 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 14.6% | 6.1% | 2.39 | 15.9% | 6.6% | 2.41 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 27.9% | 12.6% | 2.21 | 28.7% | 12.4% | 2.31 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 21.6% | 8.1% | 2.67 | 12.0% | 6.3% | 1.90 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 16.7% | 7.6% | 2.20 | 15.0% | 6.0% | 2.50 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 29.6% | 14.3% | 2.07 | 33.3% | 16.0% | 2.08 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 21.5% | 9.2% | 2.34 | 20.4% | 8.1% | 2.52 |
Short slate, only eight games the entire day, but just one outlier from a guy with just five starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.14 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.15 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 4.64 | 5 | 0.36 | 5.17 | 0.53 | 5.52 | 0.88 | 4.08 | -0.56 | 3.75 | 4.55 | 0.8 | 4.39 | 0.64 | 4.7 | 0.95 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 4.2 | 4.31 | 0.11 | 4.07 | -0.13 | 3.43 | -0.77 | 5.57 | 1.37 | 2.64 | 4.95 | 2.31 | 4.75 | 2.11 | 3.49 | 0.85 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 5.79 | 4.89 | -0.9 | 4.75 | -1.04 | 4.32 | -1.47 | 4.79 | -1.00 | 5.95 | 4.53 | -1.42 | 4.68 | -1.27 | 4.26 | -1.69 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 3.28 | 3.8 | 0.52 | 3.51 | 0.23 | 2.95 | -0.33 | 3.45 | 0.17 | 3.57 | 3.15 | -0.42 | 2.97 | -0.6 | 1.9 | -1.67 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 4.42 | 4.58 | 0.16 | 4.39 | -0.03 | 4.62 | 0.2 | 5.48 | 1.06 | 4.5 | 4.26 | -0.24 | 4.04 | -0.46 | 3.96 | -0.54 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 3.72 | 4.37 | 0.65 | 4.46 | 0.74 | 3.63 | -0.09 | 5.68 | 1.96 | 5.61 | 4.44 | -1.17 | 4.76 | -0.85 | 4.52 | -1.09 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 5.06 | 3.73 | -1.33 | 3.68 | -1.38 | 4.32 | -0.74 | 5.26 | 0.20 | 15 | 3.58 | -11.42 | 3.66 | -11.34 | 5.7 | -9.3 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 2.77 | 3.86 | 1.09 | 4.04 | 1.27 | 3.33 | 0.56 | 2.59 | -0.18 | 2.81 | 3.9 | 1.09 | 4.06 | 1.25 | 2.54 | -0.27 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | ||||||||||||||||
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 5.56 | 4.65 | -0.91 | 5.04 | -0.52 | 4.73 | -0.83 | 6.22 | 0.66 | 6.48 | 3.84 | -2.64 | 4.63 | -1.85 | 6.64 | 0.16 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 3.43 | 4.8 | 1.37 | 4.61 | 1.18 | 4.42 | 0.99 | 5.14 | 1.71 | 3.9 | 5.02 | 1.12 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 4.94 | 1.04 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 3.15 | 3.35 | 0.2 | 3.67 | 0.52 | 3.25 | 0.1 | 5.30 | 2.15 | 3.49 | 3.13 | -0.36 | 3.38 | -0.11 | 3.27 | -0.22 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 3.02 | 4.58 | 1.56 | 4.11 | 1.09 | 4.62 | 1.6 | 4.00 | 0.98 | 3.97 | 4.9 | 0.93 | 4.54 | 0.57 | 5.77 | 1.8 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 5.76 | 4.82 | -0.94 | 4.5 | -1.26 | 4.63 | -1.13 | 4.75 | -1.01 | 6.49 | 5.33 | -1.16 | 5.06 | -1.43 | 5.96 | -0.53 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 3.24 | 2.98 | -0.26 | 3.07 | -0.17 | 3.27 | 0.03 | 2.13 | -1.11 | 3.28 | 2.58 | -0.7 | 2.8 | -0.48 | 3.26 | -0.02 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 3.83 | 4.34 | 0.51 | 4.1 | 0.27 | 4.25 | 0.42 | 4.64 | 0.81 | 2.74 | 4.73 | 1.99 | 4.41 | 1.67 | 4.69 | 1.95 |
Eduardo Rodriguez is generating a low BABIP in one of the toughest parks on BABIP without a very strong profile. He’s also stranding 80.7% of his runners with an 8.2 HR/FB. I’d expect some increase in his ERA, but still like the overall package.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.0 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 0.274 | 0.305 | 0.031 | 41.3% | 0.175 | 11.5% | 84.3% | 87.7 | 9.50% | 6.30% | 63 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.290 | 0.355 | 0.065 | 48.8% | 0.215 | 11.8% | 90.6% | 85.2 | 4.00% | 2.80% | 176 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 0.279 | 0.316 | 0.037 | 44.1% | 0.203 | 14.3% | 92.1% | 87.1 | 8.50% | 4.70% | 59 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 0.288 | 0.279 | -0.009 | 47.3% | 0.233 | 21.1% | 87.6% | 84.9 | 2.30% | 1.60% | 132 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.287 | 0.290 | 0.003 | 47.1% | 0.221 | 3.8% | 87.9% | 86.5 | 5.60% | 4.00% | 177 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.311 | 0.306 | -0.005 | 35.7% | 0.221 | 10.8% | 85.8% | 84.7 | 5.60% | 3.80% | 162 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.301 | 0.320 | 0.019 | 39.4% | 0.231 | 10.3% | 83.4% | 88.7 | 8.70% | 5.70% | 104 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.311 | 0.267 | -0.044 | 33.8% | 0.223 | 6.6% | 81.1% | 87.3 | 6.40% | 4.10% | 140 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 0.279 | ||||||||||
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 0.282 | 0.296 | 0.014 | 34.6% | 0.173 | 13.1% | 81.6% | 87.3 | 3.80% | 2.60% | 130 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 0.291 | 0.271 | -0.02 | 61.4% | 0.136 | 13.6% | 93.0% | 85.3 | 3.80% | 2.80% | 182 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.300 | 0.286 | -0.014 | 36.1% | 0.167 | 7.1% | 79.2% | 87.4 | 8.70% | 5.70% | 183 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 0.308 | 0.295 | -0.013 | 54.6% | 0.211 | 10.8% | 90.4% | 87.9 | 5.20% | 3.40% | 153 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 0.284 | 0.320 | 0.036 | 49.2% | 0.232 | 14.3% | 87.0% | 88.3 | 5.60% | 4.10% | 179 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.286 | 0.269 | -0.017 | 42.6% | 0.164 | 12.0% | 85.4% | 86.9 | 8.10% | 5.30% | 186 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 0.318 | 0.276 | -0.042 | 50.0% | 0.207 | 7.3% | 85.1% | 87.4 | 7.90% | 5.30% | 140 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Just three guys today with a clear pecking order.
Zack Greinke (1) will probably allow a HR, maybe even two tonight, but who the hell can argue with anything else he’s done? Of course you’re using the guy with a 29.6 K% on a four game slate.
Eduardo Rodriguez (2) misses bats and doesn’t generate a lot of hard contact. The numbers say it’s not an unfavorable matchup in Baltimore with some upside, but it still doesn’t mean it’s a comfortable one. It’s not like you have a lot of choices tonight though.
Marco Estrada (3) is not doing any of that BABIP magic this year and his ERA runs fairly close to his estimators. It’s actually the strikeout rate that’s spiked this year and we certainly like that. Unfortunately, he does have the most difficult matchup on the slate.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window