Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, May 11th
I thought it might be too “fancy play syndrome” fading Strasburg and Darvish along with Lynn (who I’ll pretty much always fade on the road or against LH heavy lineups), but it turns out I should have added Salazar to the list too, although there were not nearly enough prior warning signs in that case. At least Archer came through and some of the cheaper arms didn’t crater.
Four afternoon pitchers will be omitted as this probably won’t be posted before first pitch. We’re covering and listing just the nine night games tonight.
A future introduction concerning the league-wide BABIP drop is still in the plans, but may have to wait a few days due to timing issues.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Editor’s Note: Tyler Anderson has been scratched from his start tonight.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | -8.9 | 4.24 | 4.9 | 34.0% | 1.01 | 4.72 | 6.79 | BAL | 101 | 100 | 131 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 13.6 | 4.73 | 5.02 | 35.7% | 0.93 | 6.88 | 5.55 | SFO | 66 | 67 | 55 |
| Chase De Jong | SEA | 5.5 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 29.2% | 1.03 | 7.87 | 5.54 | TOR | 74 | 79 | 79 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 1.3 | 4.05 | 5.84 | 62.6% | 1.11 | 4.49 | 5.12 | TEX | 93 | 51 | 90 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | -2.4 | 3.24 | 6.8 | 59.4% | 1.01 | 3.81 | 3.24 | NYY | 151 | 119 | 128 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.5 | 4.77 | 5.66 | 38.9% | 0.98 | 4.52 | 4.18 | MIN | 104 | 79 | 101 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | -4.3 | 4.36 | 5.58 | 34.6% | 1.01 | 4.86 | 6.07 | WAS | 127 | 115 | 103 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -7.2 | 3.66 | 6.13 | 46.0% | 1.13 | 3.76 | 2.77 | ARI | 116 | 100 | 66 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | -3.4 | 3.63 | 5.18 | 46.1% | 1.39 | 3.71 | 2.77 | COL | 80 | 92 | 84 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | -0.9 | 3.99 | 5.64 | 49.9% | 0.91 | 4.05 | 3.75 | DET | 99 | 107 | 86 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -3.1 | 4.41 | 6.1 | 33.1% | 1.03 | 4.55 | 3.62 | SEA | 102 | 122 | 158 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | -1.6 | 4.88 | 5.83 | 53.9% | 1.11 | 4.68 | 5.16 | SDG | 78 | 60 | 70 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 6.6 | 3.99 | 6.19 | 48.3% | 0.91 | 3.76 | 4.24 | ANA | 107 | 86 | 76 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 7.3 | 3.23 | 5.61 | 46.4% | 1.01 | 3.19 | 2.46 | HOU | 117 | 124 | 122 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 12.2 | 4.72 | 5.69 | 35.2% | 0.98 | 5.4 | 4.82 | CHW | 92 | 67 | 82 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 3.5 | 5.33 | 5.2 | 48.7% | 0.93 | 4.19 | 6.56 | CIN | 116 | 110 | 144 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | -1.3 | 3.91 | 5.78 | 48.2% | 1.39 | 3.54 | 3.68 | LOS | 85 | 87 | 148 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -8.1 | 3.57 | 6.51 | 46.9% | 1.13 | 4.16 | 2.79 | PIT | 74 | 82 | 44 |
Clayton Richard walked six Dodgers in his last start, leading to five runs in just five innings. However, he also had a double digit SwStr% for the fifth time in seven starts (strangely below four in the other two) and fourth in a row. His ground ball rate dipped below 50% for the first time (46.2%), but he’s still at 62.2% for the season (third in the majors among qualifiers) with his contact at about average authority. The only real determent he faces tonight is the park in Texas, which the ground ball rate should help him navigate. The Rangers, in addition to being a below average overall offense this year, have been atrocious against LHP (26.7 K%, 26.8 Hard%). They are also the worst offense in the majors against GB pitchers (67 sOPS+ via Baseball-Reference).
Dallas Keuchel allowed five runs in his last start, but still managed eight innings. It was only the second time he’d allowed more than one run and first time allowing more than two, while he’s gone at least seven innings in every start. Again, he’s gone at least seven innings in every start! Everything is down at the knees or below as his 63 GB% is second among qualifiers and his 26.6 Soft% (84.6 mph aEV) is tied for best in baseball. The Yankees, yeah, well, they’re a problem (12.9 BB% vs LHP, 22.4 HR/FB at home). They’re essentially the equivalent of facing a league average offense in Coors this year, but have struggled against GB pitchers (84 sOPS+), dropping off more from their overall offense than any team in the majors (-35%).
Gerrit Cole has returned and it’s fantastic to see him again. He has a 26.8 K-BB% with a 1.6 Hard-Soft% over his last four starts. It seems to be a result of more changeups and curveballs, reverse platoon pitches, though he’s not been facing an over-whelming abundance of LHBs, so it seems like a clear change in approach. Considering his fastball wasn’t doing anything special, despite how hard it’s being thrown (95+), it doesn’t seem to be a particularly poor decision. A transition to Arizona is a negative, but the Diamondbacks have a 24.3 K% vs RHP and 26.3% over the last week.
Hyun-Jin Ryu struck out nine of 21 Phillies in his last start and hasn’t shown many ill effects from missing two seasons with a 25.9 K% and 4.1 Hard-Soft%. He’s only gone six innings twice and hasn’t exceeded that mark and allowed six HRs in his first three starts, but none in his last two and as already mentioned, the contact management has been a net positive. This will be his third meeting against the Rockies, with three of his four HRs allowed to them coming in LA. He’s struck out 12 of the 47 Colorado batters he’s faced and the offense has been poor enough that they’re not and automatic skip at Coors this year in terms of pitching considerations. Despite a 20.7 HR/FB vs LHP, their 20.0 K-BB% is nearly a perfect match.
JC Ramirez struck out just two Astros after striking out 25 of his previous 66 batters. He generated just two swings and misses. This is all after he altered his pitch mix and found a curveball, supplying underlying reasons to believe in the improvement. It does not appear much had changed, though he has been down a mile per hour over his last two starts from his first three, but he still struck out nine in his previous one. Considering a hard contact rate of 19.1% with a 52.4 GB% against the Astros, he was able to complete six innings and allow just one run anyway. He faces a difficult Detroit offense (27.4 Hard-Soft%), but gets to do so in a favorable park at home and they will strike out more than average.
Michael Fulmer is pumping out the same ERA a run lower than the same peripherals as last season. We’re still not yet at a sample size where we have to consider what might make him continue to be able to do so, but he does have a solid 22.2 K% and 10.3 SwStr%. How he’s been able to manage a particularly low BABIP on league average batted ball and contact authority rates is not immediately clear and we shouldn’t expect it to continue. However, he’s in a nice spot in Los Angeles tonight against an offense that has struck out 21.2% of the time against RHP and may still be without Mike Trout.
Michael Pineda has allowed seven HRs this season, but otherwise seems to be putting the rest of the package together this season. His 27.5 K-BB% represents further improvement and is second in baseball, while his ground ball rate is up to 50% and his hard contact rate down to 28.1%. He hasn’t struck out fewer than six in any start. The Astros are a very difficult opponent having maintained their power while lowering their team strikeout rate (18.2% vs RHP).
Zack Greinke continues to prove he doesn’t need your velocity. His SwStr rate hasn’t been below 9.8% this year or 13% over his last four starts. The hard contact rate is up to 35.5% (nearly five points higher than last year), but the .314 BABIP hasn’t really killed him with that strikeout rate and the HR rate is right in line with last year, a bit higher than average, which is an acceptable consequence of that park. Despite the terrible run environment, he’s still in a solid spot against an ailing Pittsburgh offense (21.3 K-BB%, 7.8 HR/FB over the last week).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Derek Holland (.220 – 68.8% – 6.4) has a perfectly league average 12.2 K-BB% and that’s a good thing considering what his last few years have looked like, even though his ERA is much lower (half his runs have been unearned). He’s allowing a lot of hard contact (38.2%) in the air and that will likely hurt him sooner than later in that park. Minnesota has been surprisingly poor vs LHP (4.2 HR/FB), but have a few lefty-mashers.
Dylan Bundy (.256 – 84.8% – 5.3) was a pre-season darling, even here, but has done nothing to continue to merit the affection. You can only hang your low strikeout rate on facing the Red Sox three times for so long. He’s also generated just three strikeouts against the Rays and White Sox as well. While his SwStr rate was above 8% in each of his first four starts, it’s dropped below 7.5% in each of his last three. He’s stopped throwing the slider/cutter that gained him all that attention in the first place, below 17% in three of his last four starts after starting the season above 24% in each of his first three starts, while his velocity has dropped over those four starts as well. Should we be concerned about injury?
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Tyler Anderson dominated Arizona at home in his last start (6 IP – 1 ER – 10 K – 75 GB% – 7.7 Hard%), but still has just a 40 GB% with a 32.5 Hard% and has struck out five or fewer in five of his seven starts. While it’s great to see that it’s still in there somewhere, we’ll need to see more, as he’s allowed Barrels on 9.6% of BBEs this year. The Dodgers are still below average vs LHP, but have been one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the last week and get a massive park boost.
Marco Estrada may be having one of his better seasons from a peripherals standpoint. He’s missing bats and the low ERA is not due to an unsustainably low BABIP. However, he does have a strand rate a bit north of 80 (81.8%) and faces a difficult offense tonight (3.0 K-BB% last seven days) in a park that won’t do him many favors. As an odd side note, all five of his HRs have been surrendered in two starts against Tampa Bay.
Martin Perez only rates this highly due to matchup.
Phil Hughes is probably unusable against any opponent.
Chase De Jong
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | L2 Years | 22.4% | 8.2% | Home | 23.0% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 16.7% |
| Bronson Arroyo | Reds | L2 Years | 16.7% | 7.6% | Road | 11.9% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 11.6% |
| Chase De Jong | Mariners | L2 Years | 10.2% | 8.5% | Road | 8.1% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 5.0% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 13.7% | 8.3% | Road | 11.9% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 14.6% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 22.6% | 6.0% | Road | 20.0% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 24.6% | 7.0% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.2% | 7.5% | Home | 16.9% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 5.8% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.3% | 8.2% | Road | 20.3% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 10.3% | 9.0% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 22.2% | 5.8% | Road | 20.7% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 6.3% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.3% | 7.4% | Road | 20.0% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 14.3% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 18.7% | 7.6% | Home | 19.8% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 8.5% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 20.9% | 8.1% | Home | 24.4% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 3.7% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 12.9% | 8.7% | Home | 13.1% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 10.7% | 7.1% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.8% | 6.6% | Road | 21.1% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 20.3% | 8.5% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 26.2% | 5.4% | Home | 28.6% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 4.4% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | L2 Years | 13.5% | 3.6% | Road | 11.9% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 3.6% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 9.8% | 7.8% | Home | 12.4% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 2.0% | 6.1% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 20.8% | 6.3% | Home | 21.9% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 8.2% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 22.6% | 5.2% | Home | 19.6% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 3.7% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles | Road | 26.0% | 6.6% | RH | 21.5% | 6.9% | L7Days | 19.7% | 7.0% |
| Giants | Home | 19.4% | 7.4% | RH | 20.5% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.6% | 8.9% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 23.6% | 7.7% | RH | 22.7% | 7.6% | L7Days | 24.0% | 7.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 24.1% | 9.4% | LH | 26.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 25.3% | 10.8% |
| Yankees | Home | 21.6% | 11.9% | LH | 21.5% | 12.9% | L7Days | 20.4% | 11.3% |
| Twins | Road | 18.6% | 9.7% | LH | 20.3% | 10.0% | L7Days | 24.1% | 6.8% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.0% | 10.1% | RH | 20.2% | 10.2% | L7Days | 22.6% | 10.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.2% | 8.5% | RH | 24.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 26.3% | 8.8% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.2% | 6.6% | LH | 25.5% | 5.5% | L7Days | 24.6% | 6.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 24.2% | 10.5% | RH | 22.5% | 10.5% | L7Days | 26.7% | 10.3% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.9% | 9.1% | RH | 20.1% | 9.7% | L7Days | 14.4% | 11.4% |
| Padres | Road | 25.9% | 6.3% | LH | 22.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.6% | 9.7% |
| Angels | Home | 18.0% | 7.5% | RH | 21.2% | 7.1% | L7Days | 19.8% | 6.2% |
| Astros | Road | 19.0% | 9.3% | RH | 18.2% | 7.8% | L7Days | 17.0% | 10.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 22.8% | 8.7% | RH | 24.1% | 5.9% | L7Days | 18.8% | 7.3% |
| Reds | Road | 17.9% | 8.4% | LH | 18.5% | 7.0% | L7Days | 18.4% | 9.6% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.6% | 10.7% | LH | 21.0% | 10.5% | L7Days | 19.4% | 10.7% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.5% | 8.8% | RH | 18.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 26.6% | 5.3% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | L2 Years | 26.7% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 2017 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 22.2% | Home | 28.3% | 10.3% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 22.2% |
| Bronson Arroyo | Reds | L2 Years | 36.0% | 17.1% | 22.0% | 2017 | 36.0% | 17.1% | 22.0% | Road | 23.3% | 16.7% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 43.8% | 9.1% | 25.0% |
| Chase De Jong | Mariners | L2 Years | 31.3% | 12.5% | 14.6% | 2017 | 31.3% | 12.5% | 14.6% | Road | 31.0% | 12.5% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 13.3% | 17.6% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 27.0% | 14.5% | 7.3% | 2017 | 31.3% | 25.0% | 16.0% | Road | 26.9% | 19.4% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 40.6% | 0.0% | 28.1% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 25.1% | 16.6% | 1.5% | 2017 | 20.9% | 19.4% | -5.7% | Road | 29.4% | 21.3% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 22.2% | -12.8% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 33.9% | 11.2% | 17.9% | 2017 | 38.2% | 6.4% | 20.5% | Home | 33.3% | 7.2% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 0.0% | 8.1% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.2% | 10.9% | 4.2% | 2017 | 28.7% | 5.3% | 3.7% | Road | 29.7% | 11.1% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 43.6% | 10.0% | 24.2% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 30.6% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 2017 | 32.2% | 16.7% | 10.7% | Road | 31.1% | 9.9% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 20.0% | 3.4% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 31.9% | 25.9% | 11.0% | 2017 | 28.8% | 28.6% | 4.1% | Road | 29.8% | 23.1% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 28.8% | 13.7% | 9.3% | 2017 | 30.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% | Home | 26.3% | 11.4% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 12.5% | 16.1% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.3% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 2017 | 25.4% | 9.4% | 11.8% | Home | 29.6% | 9.4% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 10.3% | 12.5% | -7.7% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.2% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 2017 | 35.2% | 8.1% | 20.4% | Home | 29.0% | 10.3% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 6.7% | 13.1% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 30.5% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 2017 | 31.2% | 11.4% | 17.4% | Road | 29.0% | 11.7% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 6.7% | 19.5% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.6% | 17.8% | 14.3% | 2017 | 28.1% | 25.0% | 12.4% | Home | 33.8% | 21.6% | 18.5% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 28.6% | 6.9% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | L2 Years | 35.0% | 12.2% | 20.0% | 2017 | 43.6% | 9.3% | 29.9% | Road | 39.7% | 7.8% | 22.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 8.7% | 17.7% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 29.6% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 2017 | 29.5% | 8.0% | 12.8% | Home | 28.4% | 0.0% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 11.8% | 4.4% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.3% | 15.7% | 5.2% | 2017 | 32.5% | 24.3% | 8.8% | Home | 28.6% | 12.5% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 37.5% | 9.4% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 29.3% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 2017 | 35.5% | 14.0% | 15.3% | Home | 36.4% | 12.3% | 17.9% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 26.7% | 0.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles | Road | 36.2% | 15.1% | 17.2% | RH | 31.2% | 13.6% | 11.8% | L7Days | 32.5% | 13.4% | 10.2% |
| Giants | Home | 20.9% | 4.5% | -0.8% | RH | 26.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | L7Days | 26.9% | 9.3% | 8.1% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 27.4% | 9.6% | 7.1% | RH | 30.2% | 12.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 25.4% | 19.0% | 7.3% |
| Rangers | Home | 35.3% | 16.4% | 16.8% | LH | 26.8% | 9.2% | 4.9% | L7Days | 31.4% | 16.1% | 8.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 29.6% | 22.4% | 8.0% | LH | 27.1% | 15.1% | 8.9% | L7Days | 29.6% | 20.0% | 12.0% |
| Twins | Road | 33.8% | 11.5% | 19.2% | LH | 30.9% | 4.2% | 12.7% | L7Days | 28.9% | 12.3% | 10.1% |
| Nationals | Home | 33.7% | 16.1% | 17.5% | RH | 31.3% | 15.1% | 14.7% | L7Days | 33.5% | 16.7% | 12.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 38.8% | 16.6% | 25.7% | RH | 35.6% | 16.2% | 19.6% | L7Days | 32.9% | 17.5% | 15.0% |
| Rockies | Home | 31.6% | 17.1% | 12.2% | LH | 34.5% | 20.7% | 16.7% | L7Days | 29.1% | 15.1% | 9.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 35.3% | 13.2% | 17.1% | RH | 43.3% | 11.3% | 27.4% | L7Days | 37.4% | 8.8% | 22.8% |
| Mariners | Road | 29.0% | 11.7% | 11.2% | RH | 30.6% | 12.5% | 12.9% | L7Days | 30.0% | 12.7% | 11.2% |
| Padres | Road | 30.6% | 15.8% | 9.6% | LH | 27.5% | 9.8% | 5.6% | L7Days | 23.5% | 10.3% | -4.6% |
| Angels | Home | 25.7% | 12.6% | 6.7% | RH | 28.4% | 12.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 26.5% | 14.3% | 9.0% |
| Astros | Road | 31.6% | 11.1% | 13.5% | RH | 31.4% | 13.4% | 12.5% | L7Days | 29.9% | 11.4% | 14.7% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | RH | 25.7% | 10.8% | 5.5% | L7Days | 26.8% | 8.0% | 6.5% |
| Reds | Road | 30.3% | 14.0% | 7.1% | LH | 29.5% | 19.7% | 6.5% | L7Days | 27.2% | 12.0% | 8.9% |
| Dodgers | Road | 30.8% | 9.8% | 12.9% | LH | 33.8% | 8.6% | 18.9% | L7Days | 33.3% | 15.6% | 14.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 29.5% | 9.3% | 9.7% | RH | 28.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | L7Days | 27.1% | 7.8% | 4.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 8.3% | 5.5% | 1.51 | 8.3% | 5.5% | 1.51 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 16.7% | 7.2% | 2.32 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.41 |
| Chase De Jong | SEA | 10.2% | 6.4% | 1.59 | 11.1% | 6.5% | 1.71 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 15.8% | 9.3% | 1.70 | 16.1% | 9.7% | 1.66 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 21.1% | 10.5% | 2.01 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.28 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 20.3% | 9.1% | 2.23 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 2.36 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 15.9% | 9.8% | 1.62 | 13.3% | 8.7% | 1.53 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 24.4% | 9.9% | 2.46 | 29.5% | 10.8% | 2.73 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 25.9% | 12.1% | 2.14 | 26.4% | 13.2% | 2.00 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 24.1% | 10.4% | 2.32 | 26.6% | 11.4% | 2.33 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 25.4% | 12.3% | 2.07 | 27.7% | 12.5% | 2.22 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 14.5% | 6.2% | 2.34 | 12.3% | 5.4% | 2.28 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 22.2% | 10.3% | 2.16 | 23.1% | 10.6% | 2.18 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 31.2% | 13.7% | 2.28 | 30.8% | 13.4% | 2.30 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 14.5% | 5.6% | 2.59 | 14.8% | 6.1% | 2.43 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 5.5% | 4.1% | 1.34 | 6.0% | 4.5% | 1.33 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 21.1% | 12.0% | 1.76 | 20.4% | 11.3% | 1.81 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 26.3% | 13.1% | 2.01 | 27.6% | 14.3% | 1.93 |
Repeating that Clayton Richard has had a double digit SwStr% in four straight starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.14 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.15 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 1.5 | 6.79 | 5.29 | 5.73 | 4.23 | 4.35 | 2.85 | 6.31 | 4.81 | 1.5 | 6.79 | 5.29 | 5.73 | 4.23 | 4.35 | 2.85 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 6.53 | 4.73 | -1.8 | 4.8 | -1.73 | 5.55 | -0.98 | 9.44 | 2.91 | 5.47 | 4.52 | -0.95 | 4.45 | -1.02 | 4.83 | -0.64 |
| Chase De Jong | SEA | 6.75 | 5.89 | -0.86 | 6.23 | -0.52 | 6.16 | -0.59 | 10.02 | 3.27 | 4.97 | 5.7 | 0.73 | 5.9 | 0.93 | 5.06 | 0.09 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 4.87 | 4.13 | -0.74 | 3.78 | -1.09 | 4.56 | -0.31 | 4.72 | -0.15 | 6.08 | 4.19 | -1.89 | 3.79 | -2.29 | 4.44 | -1.64 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 1.88 | 3.39 | 1.51 | 3.23 | 1.35 | 3.73 | 1.85 | 1.29 | -0.59 | 2.33 | 3.35 | 1.02 | 3.11 | 0.78 | 3.76 | 1.43 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 2.02 | 4.37 | 2.35 | 4.79 | 2.77 | 3.68 | 1.66 | 3.51 | 1.49 | 1.82 | 4.48 | 2.66 | 4.89 | 3.07 | 3.96 | 2.14 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 2.17 | 4.75 | 2.58 | 4.65 | 2.48 | 3.43 | 1.26 | 3.85 | 1.68 | 2.33 | 5.25 | 2.92 | 5.1 | 2.77 | 3.92 | 1.59 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 3.14 | 3.38 | 0.24 | 3.31 | 0.17 | 3.8 | 0.66 | 3.04 | -0.10 | 1.97 | 2.85 | 0.88 | 2.89 | 0.92 | 2.95 | 0.98 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 4.05 | 3.38 | -0.67 | 3.27 | -0.78 | 4.89 | 0.84 | 4.52 | 0.47 | 4.09 | 3.43 | -0.66 | 3.42 | -0.67 | 5.01 | 0.92 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 3.74 | 3.73 | -0.01 | 3.65 | -0.09 | 3.28 | -0.46 | 2.14 | -1.60 | 3.45 | 3.54 | 0.09 | 3.48 | 0.03 | 2.87 | -0.58 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 3.14 | 3.58 | 0.44 | 3.88 | 0.74 | 3.34 | 0.2 | 4.68 | 1.54 | 2.25 | 3.29 | 1.04 | 3.63 | 1.38 | 2.42 | 0.17 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 4.06 | 5.21 | 1.15 | 4.83 | 0.77 | 4.23 | 0.17 | 5.74 | 1.68 | 4.78 | 5.31 | 0.53 | 5.01 | 0.23 | 4.23 | -0.55 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 2.77 | 3.82 | 1.05 | 3.79 | 1.02 | 3.63 | 0.86 | 2.04 | -0.73 | 3.27 | 3.65 | 0.38 | 3.55 | 0.28 | 3.71 | 0.44 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 3.12 | 2.48 | -0.64 | 2.39 | -0.73 | 3.68 | 0.56 | 1.50 | -1.62 | 2.32 | 2.6 | 0.28 | 2.55 | 0.23 | 3.72 | 1.4 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 4.32 | 4.79 | 0.47 | 5.08 | 0.76 | 4.33 | 0.01 | 5.92 | 1.60 | 4.94 | 4.71 | -0.23 | 4.96 | 0.02 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 5.66 | 5.97 | 0.31 | 5.7 | 0.04 | 4.95 | -0.71 | 9.57 | 3.91 | 4.74 | 5.73 | 0.99 | 5.45 | 0.71 | 4.8 | 0.06 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 6.69 | 4.06 | -2.63 | 3.91 | -2.78 | 5.43 | -1.26 | 6.24 | -0.45 | 5.96 | 3.93 | -2.03 | 3.78 | -2.18 | 5.7 | -0.26 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 3.09 | 3.13 | 0.04 | 3.05 | -0.04 | 3.2 | 0.11 | 2.22 | -0.87 | 3.38 | 2.99 | -0.39 | 2.77 | -0.61 | 3.29 | -0.09 |
Clayton Richard has a .349 BABIP. With an elite ground ball rate and not having shown an ability to stifle contact and an above average rate, his BABIP could waver around .300, but shouldn’t be this high. Five of the 20 fly balls he’s allowed have left the yard. That seems like a small sample size thing.
Dallas Keuchel won’t sustain a sub-.200 BABIP or 93.1 LOB%, but the Astros are at the forefront of defensive positioning and he compliments the defense well with innate ability to generate weak contact. His 19.4 HR/FB should drop as well. Like the pitcher above, he’s generated so few fly balls to this point (31) with six leaving the yard. He’s never allowed more than 20 HRs in a season.
Hyun-Jin Ryu has some strange stuff going on. He has a .313 BABIP and 28.6 HR/FB, but has somehow stranded 87.4% of runners. His 23.6 LD% is a bit high, but still lower than his 24.7 Soft%.
Michael Fulmer appears to have yet another unsustainably low BABIP (.248) with no real outstandingly supporting factors, along with an 80.7 LOB%.
Michael Pineda is flying below his non-FIP estimators due to an 83.3 LOB%. His BABIP is 30 points below his career rate and 71 points below last year, though with a profile and team defense that better supports it except for not having generated a single popup yet. HRs have remained a significant problem.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.0 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 0.290 | 0.333 | 0.043 | 50.0% | 0.222 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 93.2 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 18 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 0.265 | 0.258 | -0.007 | 35.7% | 0.224 | 4.9% | 91.9% | 88.3 | 8.00% | 6.10% | 100 |
| Chase De Jong | SEA | 0.295 | 0.289 | -0.006 | 29.2% | 0.208 | 8.3% | 97.1% | 89.6 | 4.20% | 3.40% | 48 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.288 | 0.349 | 0.061 | 62.2% | 0.22 | 5.0% | 88.8% | 87.4 | 4.60% | 3.40% | 131 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.271 | 0.195 | -0.076 | 63.0% | 0.141 | 6.5% | 90.7% | 84.6 | 5.80% | 4.10% | 139 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.271 | 0.220 | -0.051 | 36.3% | 0.176 | 6.4% | 86.9% | 89 | 5.90% | 4.10% | 102 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.293 | 0.256 | -0.037 | 31.3% | 0.261 | 19.3% | 88.1% | 86.9 | 5.90% | 4.50% | 136 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.302 | 0.254 | -0.048 | 48.3% | 0.155 | 7.1% | 85.7% | 86.9 | 6.60% | 4.70% | 121 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 0.286 | 0.313 | 0.027 | 47.2% | 0.236 | 19.0% | 82.7% | 85.5 | 8.20% | 5.40% | 73 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 0.282 | 0.315 | 0.033 | 41.1% | 0.244 | 12.9% | 83.7% | 86.1 | 4.30% | 2.90% | 92 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.302 | 0.289 | -0.013 | 38.8% | 0.155 | 3.8% | 78.6% | 87.6 | 6.80% | 4.50% | 118 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.278 | 0.352 | 0.074 | 44.8% | 0.256 | 10.8% | 92.5% | 87.5 | 6.30% | 4.70% | 128 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.305 | 0.248 | -0.057 | 45.0% | 0.229 | 5.7% | 85.7% | 87.3 | 7.30% | 5.10% | 109 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.279 | 0.268 | -0.011 | 50.0% | 0.182 | 0.0% | 84.5% | 88.2 | 7.90% | 5.10% | 89 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 0.277 | 0.313 | 0.036 | 32.5% | 0.214 | 7.4% | 92.1% | 90.3 | 12.00% | 9.70% | 117 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 0.311 | 0.250 | -0.061 | 43.2% | 0.23 | 8.0% | 94.9% | 86.6 | 5.10% | 4.40% | 78 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 0.275 | 0.324 | 0.049 | 40.0% | 0.264 | 13.5% | 82.1% | 84.3 | 9.60% | 6.80% | 114 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.303 | 0.314 | 0.011 | 45.1% | 0.197 | 14.0% | 85.6% | 87.7 | 5.60% | 3.90% | 124 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Michael Pineda (1) has improved from a results and conventional standpoint (ERA) and also even further from a peripheral standpoint, though we weren’t even sure that was possible. He’s putting it all together tonight against a difficult opponent, but a cost still only around $9K.
Value Tier Two
JC Ramirez was able to survive just two swings and misses with excellent contact management in his last start. He faces a similarly hard hitting Detroit offense tonight, but in a negative run environment and still at a below average cost ($7K or less). It’s easier to give him another shot here due to the change in pitch mix and Detroit’s tendency to strike out a bit, but we’ll have to watch that SwStr rate tonight.
Hyun-Jin Ryu is not a flawless pitcher and generally doesn’t go deep into outings, but does have some upside with a low cost (just $5.5K on FanDuel). It’s not a favorable spot, but there is no need to fear the home team in Colorado until they give us a reason to do so again.
Value Tier Three
Zack Greinke (2) is still in a favorable spot despite the park and does continue to have some profile flaws, but compliments them with a renewed ability to miss bats at an even better rate than he ever has (hint: more sliders). Velocity is only an issue as far as the results lead us to be concerned about it, but in his case, he’s found acceptable ways around increased hard contact.
Clayton Richard has had occasional issues with control without a ton of strikeout upside and transitions to a difficult park. However, he barely costs the minimum on DraftKings, keeps everything on the ground and has a double digit SwStr% in four straight starts against an offense that is not making hard contact and striking out a ton against LHP. It’s only unfortunate that there’s no real elite arm to pair him with, but if you are paying up over $10K for your SP1, he’s certainly worth a look.
Michael Fulmer (3t) is still probably not as good as his ERA, but he’s not a bad pitcher by any stretch. He should be able to handle in the Angels in LA tonight, especially if Trout remains out, though I still wouldn’t mind him even he were to return tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Gerrit Cole is not in a great spot for a little over $9K, but has returned to pre-2016 form and been flat out dominant over the last month with ERA estimators below three.
Dallas Keuchel (3t) is the highest priced pitcher on the board and facing the Yankees. Opposition is the sole reason he finds himself this low. He’s striking out batters at an above average rate with most of his contact weakly hit on the ground.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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