Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, May 12th
It’s just eight games, but quite a group that’s been assembled for Thursday. Six of the 16 pitchers have an average exit velocity under 88 mph. We have the AL Cy Young winner, two of the three NL CY finalists, and the largest free agent contract this offseason on the mound tonight, although only one of those pitchers have lived up to previous standards. In fact, we have several “used to be Aces” tonight and most importantly, of course, the slugger known and Bartolo Colon, who might actually be your second best daily fantasy option tonight. Today’s group is like the girl (or guy?) that looks great from a distance after a few beers, but then you realize that everyone is a quality human being deserving of love and happiness, though still swear to quit drinking.
Changes for 2016 were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | ATL | -8.8 | 6.71 | 5.37 | 0.94 | 0.96 | 6.26 | 6.75 | PHI | 73 | 69 | 55 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -14.3 | 3.81 | 6.69 | 1.63 | 0.92 | 4.34 | 3.5 | ANA | 81 | 83 | 44 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | -5.2 | 3.86 | 6.36 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 3.91 | 3.5 | LOS | 70 | 83 | 77 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | -1 | 2.16 | 7.23 | 1.73 | 0.9 | 1.86 | 1.1 | NYM | 113 | 107 | 91 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 1.7 | 3.1 | 6.97 | 3.16 | 1.07 | 3.48 | 4.16 | BOS | 133 | 119 | 177 |
| David Price | BOS | 5.9 | 3.01 | 7.02 | 1.1 | 1.07 | 3.22 | 4.7 | HOU | 94 | 118 | 91 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 9.7 | 3.7 | 5.87 | 0.96 | 1.02 | 4.33 | 3.76 | NYY | 105 | 86 | 97 |
| James Shields | SDG | 1.8 | 3.78 | 6.38 | 1.32 | 1.05 | 4.03 | 4.07 | MIL | 107 | 95 | 106 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 9.3 | 4.61 | 6.14 | 0.68 | 0.92 | 4.28 | 4.47 | STL | 122 | 122 | 118 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -9 | 4.04 | 5.88 | 1.63 | 1.05 | 3.5 | 4 | SDG | 81 | 71 | 84 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | -4.5 | 3.56 | 6.82 | 1.25 | 1.07 | 3.62 | 3.46 | ARI | 101 | 97 | 104 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | -9.7 | 4.73 | 5.42 | 1.91 | 1.04 | 4.9 | 4.29 | BAL | 119 | 131 | 150 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | -1.4 | 4.01 | 5.88 | 1.63 | 1.02 | 3.66 | 3.1 | KAN | 93 | 94 | 118 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -3.8 | 4.15 | 5.65 | 1.54 | 1.04 | 3.43 | 4.24 | DET | 104 | 105 | 66 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | -2.1 | 3.46 | 5.78 | 0.76 | 0.96 | 4.34 | 4.18 | ATL | 63 | 67 | 71 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -8.2 | 3.19 | 6.72 | 1.59 | 1.07 | 3.41 | 2.62 | SFO | 94 | 103 | 78 |
Bartolo Colon has the fifth lowest FIP with all these big names on the mound tonight. We expected the K% to stumble and it has begun to, but it’s still at a league average mark and he has yet to strike out less than four or allow more than three runs. He’s walked just four batters and his 18.8 K-BB% is a career high. There’s no way he’s expected to continue at this pace, but he’s only holding a spot for Wheeler until the All Star break anyway (unless there’s another injury). Everything else is in line, so expect him to continue to do what he’s doing at about a league average pace. The Dodgers have been inadequate at best so far, but plate discipline is league average, while they’ve actually hit the ball fairly hard against RHP despite a lack of power. They should be at least league average eventually, if not better.
Clayton Kershaw is pitching today. It’s a short slate and not a long article where we’re pressed for time, but that’s all that needs to be said. Want more? He’s struck out at least 10 in each of his last four starts. The Mets have a 24.6 K% vs LHP.
Dallas Keuchel represents the biggest dilemma tonight. He pitches his best game of the season last night, but presented with so many issues previously that he almost needs to re-establish himself over several starts to gain back the top pitcher status he enjoyed last year. Strangely, the only two runs he allowed in his last start were two HRs against LHBs. He had only allowed three since the start of last season coming into the game. The good news is a 14+ SwStr% in three of his last four starts and a 61.9 GB% with more weak contact than hard in his last start. Now he only has to deal with the hottest bats in the majors in Boston.
David Price seemingly continues Boston’s poor run of free agent contract choices. He’s allowed at least six runs with five strikeouts or less in three of his last four. The good news is he has at least eight strikeouts in each of the other four and only has a SwStr below 13% in one start. More bad news is that it was his last and the velocity continues to be depressed significantly from last season, while he’s allowed 41.2% hard contact. The Astros have a high wRC+ against LHP mostly due to an 12.0 BB%, though that’s been one issue Price hasn’t had this year. They also have a 23.6 K% vs LHP though.
Jimmy Nelson has unfortunately stalled in his development and even declined after a strong start to last season, though he still gets a lot of love from some in the community. If we start with the bad, he has an even worse SwStr% belying a below average K% and has allowed a 17.5 HR/FB at home since last season. Moving towards the good, he has a 17.6 K-BB% at home since last season and a .279 wOBA with just 11 HRs allowed to RHBs in his career (683 BF). Pitchers against a certain handedness is not something we often mention here because most lineups are not often stacked in a pitcher’s favor. The Padres have an abundance of RHBs and strike out 26% of the time against them.
Johnny Cueto finally gives us a strong pitcher behind Kershaw. He’s pitching where? That’s not good. He’s allowed one run or less and seven strikeouts or more in four of seven starts. In three starts, he’s struck out four or less and has twice allowed six runs. He’s gone at least seven innings in all but one of his seven starts. All in all, a strong start to his San Francisco career. Overall, his strikeout rate is a bit better than average, while Arizona strikes out about an average amount. His batted ball and contact profile are about average, while Arizona crushes the baseball at home (19.1 HR/FB, 34.6 Hard%) and has some power vs RHP (13.4 HR/FB). They have a 37.1 Hard% over the last week. There are two clear terrible spots on today’s board. This isn’t one of them, but it’s not favorable either.
Ubaldo Jimenez again has a below average SwStr%, but has been pushing the boundaries the last several years hanging around a 21% strikeout rate with similar. He has walked at least three batters in four of his last five starts with no more than five strikeouts. Detroit just struck out 20 times last night and now has a 25.4% mark with a 6.6 BB% vs RHP. Perhaps there’s some kind of hangover?
Vincent Velasquez has pitched mostly poorly in five starts since wiping out San Diego. He struck out 25 in his first two starts and just 19 in the four since. It’s not on his merits that we speak of him today, but he has been able to generate frequent weak contact in the air, which should play well in this park. Seven of his 37 fly balls have remained around the infield. Then again, the Braves play in this park. Everything plays well here. They have no power.
Zack Greinke takes on a very good offense that hasn’t performed up to par on the road in a tough park. Although he’s pitched better of late and allowed two runs or less in four of his five starts, we’ve previously discussed two detractors to his performance this season: the park and his catching situation. Even with the Giants under-achieving offensively on the road, they strike out just 16% of the time and even less (15.6%) vs RHP with an average contact profile. This is a dangerous spot with little upside.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.5 LOB% – 11.8 HR/FB)
Ian Kennedy (.260 BABIP – 88.2 LOB% – 6.7 HR/FB) was someone I expected to like before I saw where he was pitching. While I expected him to excel in Kansas City, he’s still an extreme fly ball pitcher that you have to choose your road matchups wisely with. Yankee Stadium is not a good look for him for over $8K. This is not a pitcher I expect to be as bad as his xFIP, which doesn’t see the value of a fly ball pitcher in Kansas City, but he’s not going to continue stranding that many runners either. If this matchup were in Kansas City, I might feel differently at this price, though if the Yankees run out a lineup with Ackley batting fifth again…..
James Shields (.272 BABIP – 81.8 LOB% – 13.6 HR/FB) is starting to get a few more swings and misses, but the Brewers actually have the second highest walk rate (10.9%) in the majors, equal to his 10.8 BB%. A power friendly park is really not the best place for him to be at this point in his career, even if the Brewers strike out 25.5% against RHP.
Aaron Blair (.255 BABIP – 68.2 LOB% – 0.0 HR/FB) has a -6.2 K-BB%. Yes, he has walked almost twice as many batters as he’s struck out.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Nathan Eovaldi is missing bats at around a league average rate, which was supposed to make him fantasy relevant, but his career high in HRs in 14, while he’s already allowed six despite the highest ground ball rate of his career (55.5%). His hard contact rate is 35.5% and the Kansas City bats seem to have woken up in New York. This is basically an average pitcher an average spot at an above average cost, though $1.2K cheaper on DraftKings if all of that interests you.
Adam Wainwright went a season high 6.1 innings in his seventh start of the season. He has allowed at least three runs in every start, but just three in each of his last two. He’s struck out either four or five in each of his last three and that represents a vast improvement over his first four starts in which he struck out a total of nine. His cost has come down, but he is still pitching poorly, just not as poorly and faces an offense with just a 15.9 K% vs RHP.
Jered Weaver is one of the easiest passes today.
Mike Pelfrey has one of the two worst matchups of the evening, not that we’d have a favorable opinion in any matchup.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | Braves | L2 Years | 7.7% | 13.9% | Home | 4.6% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 15.9% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 17.7% | 5.4% | Road | 16.3% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 2.8% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 17.6% | 3.3% | Road | 15.7% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 1.8% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 33.1% | 4.2% | Home | 36.4% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 43.6% | 0.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 20.8% | 6.2% | Road | 19.1% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 11.3% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 26.5% | 4.9% | Home | 25.8% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 7.6% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.8% | 8.2% | Road | 20.9% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| James Shields | Padres | L2 Years | 21.7% | 7.5% | Road | 21.5% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 13.5% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | L2 Years | 15.9% | 6.1% | Home | 18.8% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 3.9% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.4% | 8.2% | Home | 23.3% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 7.7% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 22.0% | 5.8% | Road | 19.4% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 5.6% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Tigers | L2 Years | 11.8% | 7.0% | Road | 10.7% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 6.8% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | L2 Years | 17.1% | 6.1% | Home | 19.4% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 5.4% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 21.6% | 10.7% | Home | 22.5% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 8.8% |
| Vincent Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 27.0% | 8.5% | Road | 24.0% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 10.6% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 23.5% | 4.9% | Home | 22.2% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 5.7% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | Road | 20.4% | 6.1% | RH | 21.2% | 6.5% | L7Days | 13.7% | 4.7% |
| Angels | Home | 16.6% | 8.3% | RH | 15.9% | 7.8% | L7Days | 20.0% | 7.4% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.2% | 8.2% | RH | 21.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 19.9% | 5.9% |
| Mets | Road | 23.1% | 9.1% | LH | 24.6% | 10.4% | L7Days | 23.9% | 11.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.6% | 9.0% | LH | 21.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.3% | 8.1% |
| Astros | Road | 26.5% | 9.0% | LH | 23.6% | 12.0% | L7Days | 25.4% | 12.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.2% | 9.1% | RH | 18.5% | 7.7% | L7Days | 17.2% | 7.0% |
| Brewers | Home | 24.3% | 10.2% | RH | 25.5% | 9.8% | L7Days | 23.6% | 10.9% |
| Cardinals | Road | 19.6% | 9.9% | RH | 19.9% | 8.3% | L7Days | 15.7% | 8.7% |
| Padres | Road | 28.6% | 7.1% | RH | 26.0% | 6.8% | L7Days | 25.6% | 6.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.2% | 7.6% | RH | 20.6% | 6.7% | L7Days | 21.1% | 7.4% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.1% | 9.3% | RH | 21.5% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.4% | 8.1% |
| Royals | Road | 19.9% | 5.9% | RH | 19.5% | 6.4% | L7Days | 19.4% | 5.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 24.7% | 6.3% | RH | 25.4% | 6.6% | L7Days | 30.5% | 9.7% |
| Braves | Home | 22.0% | 7.7% | RH | 19.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 16.1% | 7.0% |
| Giants | Road | 16.0% | 9.2% | RH | 15.6% | 11.4% | L7Days | 17.3% | 10.4% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | Braves | L2 Years | 21.6% | 0.0% | 3.9% | 2016 | 21.6% | 0.0% | 3.9% | Home | 19.4% | 0.0% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 26.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 2016 | 32.1% | 8.9% | 15.0% | Road | 29.7% | 11.1% | 15.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 15.4% | -1.8% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 29.3% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 2016 | 33.3% | 10.5% | 23.0% | Road | 27.2% | 10.3% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 34.1% | 5.6% | 22.7% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.5% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 2016 | 30.7% | 8.1% | 13.4% | Home | 25.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 21.4% | 11.2% | -2.3% | 2016 | 29.9% | 10.7% | 7.5% | Road | 26.9% | 15.6% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.2% | 8.1% | 12.9% | 2016 | 41.2% | 11.8% | 24.5% | Home | 30.0% | 8.7% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 41.5% | 11.1% | 26.9% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 32.4% | 12.1% | 16.8% | 2016 | 32.3% | 6.7% | 9.1% | Road | 34.1% | 11.3% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 0.0% | 12.9% |
| James Shields | Padres | L2 Years | 29.0% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 2016 | 30.5% | 13.6% | 14.5% | Road | 31.2% | 14.9% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 25.0% | 18.8% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | L2 Years | 28.7% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 2016 | 37.2% | 8.9% | 24.0% | Home | 29.2% | 8.0% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 41.5% | 7.1% | 29.3% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 30.2% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 2016 | 31.8% | 19.5% | 6.4% | Home | 29.5% | 17.5% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 18.2% | 11.1% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 25.4% | 8.9% | 4.0% | 2016 | 26.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | Road | 30.2% | 10.5% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 12.5% | 15.3% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Tigers | L2 Years | 28.2% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 2016 | 38.9% | 20.0% | 23.9% | Road | 28.6% | 10.1% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 37.5% | 20.0% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | L2 Years | 29.7% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 2016 | 35.5% | 19.4% | 19.1% | Home | 28.6% | 10.3% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 34.9% | 33.3% | 23.3% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 27.3% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 2016 | 30.5% | 15.4% | 14.3% | Home | 27.7% | 11.8% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 25.7% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 2016 | 23.1% | 8.1% | -1.1% | Road | 25.0% | 7.0% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 7.7% | -3.2% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 26.2% | 8.8% | 5.2% | 2016 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 4.9% | Home | 26.9% | 9.4% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 0.0% | -2.9% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | Road | 28.9% | 10.3% | 8.0% | RH | 25.1% | 8.9% | 3.9% | L7Days | 25.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% |
| Angels | Home | 29.2% | 12.1% | 11.2% | RH | 27.8% | 9.1% | 6.5% | L7Days | 34.1% | 2.9% | 25.4% |
| Dodgers | Home | 27.9% | 10.8% | 7.3% | RH | 31.0% | 8.3% | 13.1% | L7Days | 35.0% | 16.3% | 25.2% |
| Mets | Road | 36.2% | 17.2% | 23.4% | LH | 30.7% | 13.2% | 12.3% | L7Days | 33.3% | 15.7% | 21.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 32.7% | 13.0% | 15.3% | LH | 27.5% | 13.6% | 5.0% | L7Days | 34.5% | 25.4% | 13.8% |
| Astros | Road | 31.0% | 17.2% | 10.7% | LH | 29.8% | 12.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 34.6% | 11.5% | 19.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 26.1% | 12.5% | 5.3% | RH | 25.1% | 13.4% | 6.9% | L7Days | 23.0% | 11.6% | 0.6% |
| Brewers | Home | 34.8% | 17.6% | 20.4% | RH | 29.3% | 16.7% | 11.6% | L7Days | 30.1% | 19.6% | 9.9% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.8% | 14.8% | 14.4% | RH | 33.1% | 15.8% | 14.8% | L7Days | 33.9% | 12.5% | 18.7% |
| Padres | Road | 32.4% | 13.5% | 15.2% | RH | 28.8% | 10.6% | 12.0% | L7Days | 31.0% | 13.6% | 14.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 34.6% | 19.1% | 16.3% | RH | 31.6% | 13.4% | 11.7% | L7Days | 37.1% | 10.0% | 20.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 31.1% | 15.8% | 8.0% | RH | 31.9% | 17.6% | 11.3% | L7Days | 32.5% | 21.3% | 12.6% |
| Royals | Road | 27.6% | 10.7% | 8.5% | RH | 28.7% | 9.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 29.9% | 20.0% | 14.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 33.3% | 13.0% | 16.5% | RH | 33.2% | 12.9% | 16.8% | L7Days | 27.1% | 12.7% | 7.1% |
| Braves | Home | 29.3% | 4.7% | 11.4% | RH | 24.9% | 4.1% | 6.0% | L7Days | 27.0% | 7.7% | 10.0% |
| Giants | Road | 30.8% | 13.4% | 10.2% | RH | 30.0% | 10.7% | 11.4% | L7Days | 27.1% | 2.1% | 7.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | ATL | 7.7% | 5.5% | 1.40 | 7.7% | 5.5% | 1.40 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 13.1% | 7.3% | 1.79 | 14.4% | 7.9% | 1.82 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 21.4% | 7.4% | 2.89 | 19.5% | 6.8% | 2.87 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 32.8% | 15.4% | 2.13 | 35.0% | 16.7% | 2.10 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 19.9% | 10.9% | 1.83 | 18.4% | 12.8% | 1.44 |
| David Price | BOS | 29.0% | 14.1% | 2.06 | 27.2% | 14.3% | 1.90 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.17 | 22.2% | 10.8% | 2.06 |
| James Shields | SDG | 18.3% | 10.5% | 1.74 | 19.4% | 11.3% | 1.72 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 12.6% | 8.8% | 1.43 | 11.9% | 8.0% | 1.49 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 19.9% | 6.3% | 3.16 | 18.3% | 6.0% | 3.05 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.10 | 22.9% | 10.1% | 2.27 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 10.5% | 8.2% | 1.28 | 9.7% | 8.4% | 1.15 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 23.7% | 9.6% | 2.47 | 22.2% | 9.3% | 2.39 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 22.2% | 8.2% | 2.71 | 20.0% | 7.5% | 2.67 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | 29.9% | 11.7% | 2.56 | 28.5% | 12.1% | 2.36 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 21.1% | 12.0% | 1.76 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 1.71 |
Bartolo Colon usually has a strikeout rate sitting around 17% with a SwStr around 6%. He gets more called strikeouts than just about any other pitcher and he’s been doing it for years.
Dallas Keuchel has a SwStr above 14% in three of his last four starts now (as mentioned above) and looks to be on his way to an above average K% again.
Jimmy Nelson has had a SwStr above 6.5% just twice and not above 9% once. His career rate is three points higher. Maybe not tonight, but if this continues, expect his K% to tank.
Zack Greinke – Herrmann (-1.1 RAA) has actually scored as a worse receiver than Castillo (+0.7 RAA) so far, resulting in a surprising, but still negative overall situation. Last year, Castillo (-10.9 RAA) was the only receiver in negative double digits with fewer than 6K pitches caught. In 2014, he was second worst in baseball (-24.3 RAA), so bad the Cubs got rid of him.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | ATL | 3.31 | 6.71 | 3.4 | 5.86 | 2.55 | 4.14 | 0.83 | 3.31 | 6.71 | 3.4 | 5.86 | 2.55 | 4.14 | 0.83 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 6.3 | 4.9 | -1.4 | 4.68 | -1.62 | 4.22 | -2.08 | 6.21 | 4.23 | -1.98 | 3.83 | -2.38 | 3.61 | -2.6 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 2.82 | 3.43 | 0.61 | 3.23 | 0.41 | 3.04 | 0.22 | 3.19 | 3.76 | 0.57 | 3.58 | 0.39 | 3.13 | -0.06 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.04 | 2.07 | 0.03 | 2 | -0.04 | 1.64 | -0.4 | 2.37 | 1.66 | -0.71 | 1.48 | -0.89 | 0.96 | -1.41 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 4.7 | 4.01 | -0.69 | 3.66 | -1.04 | 3.55 | -1.15 | 5.17 | 3.66 | -1.51 | 3.41 | -1.76 | 3.61 | -1.56 |
| David Price | BOS | 6.75 | 3.02 | -3.73 | 2.98 | -3.77 | 2.95 | -3.8 | 7.39 | 3.2 | -4.19 | 3.26 | -4.13 | 3.32 | -4.07 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 2.13 | 4.01 | 1.88 | 4.44 | 2.31 | 3.62 | 1.49 | 2.59 | 4.26 | 1.67 | 4.78 | 2.19 | 4.08 | 1.49 |
| James Shields | SDG | 3.6 | 4.71 | 1.11 | 4.51 | 0.91 | 4.72 | 1.12 | 3.09 | 4.86 | 1.77 | 4.62 | 1.53 | 4.38 | 1.29 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 4.72 | 5.32 | 0.6 | 5.49 | 0.77 | 4.84 | 0.12 | 5.4 | 5.44 | 0.04 | 5.52 | 0.12 | 4.82 | -0.58 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.74 | 4.35 | 0.61 | 4.23 | 0.49 | 5.15 | 1.41 | 4.2 | 4.52 | 0.32 | 4.46 | 0.26 | 5.06 | 0.86 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 3.02 | 3.38 | 0.36 | 3.12 | 0.1 | 2.4 | -0.62 | 2.45 | 3.23 | 0.78 | 2.9 | 0.45 | 2.55 | 0.1 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 6.23 | 5.43 | -0.8 | 5.13 | -1.1 | 6.16 | -0.07 | 6.41 | 5.62 | -0.79 | 5.23 | -1.18 | 6.21 | -0.2 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 4.78 | 3.14 | -1.64 | 3.13 | -1.65 | 3.92 | -0.86 | 4.13 | 3.18 | -0.95 | 3.18 | -0.95 | 3.68 | -0.45 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 4.54 | 3.92 | -0.62 | 3.78 | -0.76 | 4.1 | -0.44 | 5.34 | 4.44 | -0.9 | 4.36 | -0.98 | 4.52 | -0.82 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | 2.17 | 3.07 | 0.9 | 3.25 | 1.08 | 2.75 | 0.58 | 2.59 | 3.11 | 0.52 | 3.22 | 0.63 | 2.97 | 0.38 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 5.15 | 3.57 | -1.58 | 3.42 | -1.73 | 3.37 | -1.78 | 3.74 | 3.35 | -0.39 | 3.1 | -0.64 | 2.53 | -1.21 |
Dallas Keuchel has a .344 BABIP, which is kind of hard to believe as he still has a high ground ball rate (56.5%) and is generating average contact authority (7.5 Hard-Soft%) with above average indicators below, but a double digit IFFB% doesn’t mean much with so many ground balls.
David Price – This is where ERA estimators fail us a bit. They don’t see all of the issues not wrapped up entirely in the things they measure like the velocity drop and the high rate of hard contact, although an elite K% and SwStr% has to mean something. It’s just such a strange set of numbers. He leads the majors in Z-Contact% by nearly five points! He’s also stranded just over half of his runners. How are batters either missing entirely or hitting the ball really hard whenever they swing?
Jimmy Nelson – A .237 BABIP counteracts a 19.5 HR/FB. Not that either is likely to be sustained, but HR rates normally vary more according to talent levels and parks than BABIP, so this is not good.
Vincent Velasquez may have an issue sustaining a below average HR/FB (8.1) in Philadelphia, but we don’t have to worry about that tonight and he does generate a lot of pop ups. That also plays into an excellent batted ball profile in terms of his BABIP. It gives him a chance, though you always have to project some regression from anything lower than .260.
Zack Greinke still has a .360 BABIP and 67.9 LOB%, but it’s really only been a couple of terrible starts. He’s been very good in four of his last five. His ERA estimators are nearly on par with last season and with the exact same SwStr%, I’d venture that they’d match his 2015 numbers if his K% reflected that.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | ATL | 0.286 | 0.255 | -0.031 | 0.3 | 22.2% | 89.2% |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.278 | 0.324 | 0.046 | 0.259 | 4.4% | 92.9% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.317 | 0.310 | -0.007 | 0.252 | 10.5% | 89.9% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.274 | 0.282 | 0.008 | 0.23 | 13.5% | 80.7% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.304 | 0.344 | 0.04 | 0.221 | 14.3% | 82.9% |
| David Price | BOS | 0.300 | 0.373 | 0.073 | 0.291 | 5.9% | 72.9% |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.287 | 0.260 | -0.027 | 0.184 | 11.1% | 81.8% |
| James Shields | SDG | 0.298 | 0.272 | -0.026 | 0.203 | 4.5% | 83.3% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 0.285 | 0.328 | 0.043 | 0.275 | 12.5% | 81.4% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.322 | 0.237 | -0.085 | 0.171 | 19.5% | 93.1% |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.322 | 0.324 | 0.002 | 0.246 | 10.0% | 88.2% |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 0.313 | 0.355 | 0.042 | 0.241 | 10.0% | 87.4% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 0.310 | 0.317 | 0.007 | 0.164 | 9.7% | 88.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.299 | 0.366 | 0.067 | 0.194 | 3.8% | 84.8% |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | 0.281 | 0.250 | -0.031 | 0.202 | 18.9% | 80.7% |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.310 | 0.360 | 0.05 | 0.223 | 4.7% | 91.9% |
h2. Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
We’ve been commenting on pricing discrepancies throughout the week here and today is as crazy as it gets with Aaron Blair costing more than Dallas Keuchel on DraftKings and then more than $4K less on FanDuel. In all, nine of 16 pitchers have at least a $1K price difference between sites and just five have a difference of less than $800.
I’ve never seen anything like the pricing craziness today. I legitimately have a spreadsheet sitting here that says Kershaw and throw a dart. It’s like going straight from Tier One to the middle of Tier Three with no in between. All of these other former names have massive issues this year, a terrible matchup tonight, or both.
Value Tier One
Clayton Kershaw (1) is so far and away the top guy today that there is no Tier Two. The gap is enormous and nobody else comes close. He could double the next best pitcher’s point total.
Value Tier Two
It would be an insult to Kershaw to actually place other pitchers just one tier below him tonight. There’s really nobody deserving of such proximity to him tonight and would only serve to give readers the wrong idea.
Value Tier Three
Bartolo Colon is a league average pitcher in a league average spot at a league average cost. This is what constitutes great value today and for most of the season as pitcher pricing seems higher overall so far. Among today’s group, his cost is actually a bit on the low side even though he’s out-performed many of the big names to this point.
Vincent Velasquez (2) is dragged down a bit by his $10.9K cost on DraftKings that puts him in “meh” territory with many of the pitchers below considering his recent output, but he looks much better in tonight’s top matchup for $1.8K less on FanDuel.
Johnny Cueto has been good (though not in every start), but is not in a favorable spot tonight at a high cost and he’s not a pitcher who always gains a ton of value from his strikeout rate, which can make it even tougher when he’s not on. It’s not like you have a lot of strong choices behind Kershaw though.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Zack Greinke is in a dangerous spot against a team that makes contact like the Royals have the last few years, but with more power. They haven’t performed up their usual level yet this season, but this is a scary spot for $10.9K on FanDuel. Once again, DraftKings is a different story for $2.5K less, which matches Keuchel for the largest price discrepancy of the day.
David Price is the exact opposite of Keuchel above. There is no way I can justify $11.1K on DraftKings, though with the hottest offense on earth behind him and a decent chance to accumulate a few strikeouts, $9.4K on FanDuel might almost be reasonable. Again, it’s nowhere near Kershaw or even my top three valued FD pitchers, but he could actually be somewhere near fourth. If I had to pick one guy behind Kershaw I thought might have the best chance of breaking out and reclaiming old glory tonight, it might be him though. He could strike out 15 or give up eight runs or both.
Dallas Keuchel costs $9.4K on FanDuel traveling to Boston to face the hottest offense on the planet, who will be facing their third LHP in a row. Also considering how important the Win is on that site, it becomes difficult to see him as even an average value there despite looking much better last time out. On DraftKings, where he’s the third lowest priced pitcher ($6.9K) it might be a different story, though I still don’t have a ton of confidence.
Ubaldo Jimenez – No, I do not feel good about this, but Detroit is struggling and he’s one of the cheaper pitchers on the board. Occasionally, he’ll pull one out of his you know what and he is coming off one of his better starts in a while (8 IP – 2 ER – 1 BB – 6 K).
Jimmy Nelson – I want no part of him for over $9K on DraftKings, but he does face a lineup full of right handed bats (most likely) and might not make you so nauseous for $7.6K on FanDuel tonight.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window