Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, April 4th
As mentioned yesterday, we’re looking to include some new stuff this year and today the upgraded template arrives. While this is already an article choc-full of stats, it’s sometimes difficult to find the balance between staying current and becoming overwhelming, but we now have more pertinent information and that only seems like an upgrade.
First, notice DRA now included in the ERA chart below. As noted yesterday, Baseball Prospectus keeps a tight lid on the formula but you can read more about it right here.
Below that, in the former BABIP Chart, now the BABIP and Statcast chart, you’ll see Exit Velocity (referred to as aEV in the notes), Barrels/BBE, Barrels/PA and BBE (Batted Ball Events). I’ve also inserted GB% into that chart as well.
The placement may not be perfect methodically, but it’s where everything fit on the page in the best manner. A glossary, if not explaining all of the stats used in this article, then at least pointing to where you can learn more about them (usually Fangraphs) is also in the current plan.
Remember that FanDuel has changed their pitcher pricing to de-emphasize the Win in favor of the Quality Start. A welcome, if not overdue change.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2016 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -5.3 | 4.22 | 6.03 | 44.7% | 0.97 | 3.83 | 4.27 | CHC | 106 | 103 | 113 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 5.4 | 3.05 | 6. | 49.9% | 1.07 | 3.09 | TEX | 106 | 98 | 85 | |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.8 | 4.22 | 5.88 | 48.0% | 0.97 | 4.59 | 4.15 | TAM | 96 | 101 | 73 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | -5.9 | 4.02 | 5.84 | 62.8% | 0.9 | 4.89 | 5.92 | LOS | 107 | 72 | 65 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | -4.3 | 4.03 | 6.19 | 44.4% | 1.01 | 4.54 | 3.62 | HOU | 97 | 100 | 85 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 9.1 | 3.31 | 6.66 | 54.5% | 0.97 | 3.93 | 3.18 | STL | 102 | 106 | 129 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | -1.4 | 4.06 | 5.85 | 37.0% | 0.97 | 4.32 | 3.11 | NYY | 84 | 93 | 107 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 4.8 | 3.71 | 6.74 | 46.2% | 1.07 | 3.3 | 2.66 | ARI | 99 | 87 | 106 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 2.3 | 3.69 | 5.48 | 43.9% | 0.9 | 3.88 | 3.93 | SDG | 78 | 81 | 97 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 4.2 | 3.6 | 5.73 | 50.5% | 1.01 | 2.81 | SEA | 101 | 107 | 124 | |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 1.9 | 4.82 | 5.9 | 55.1% | 1.07 | 4.54 | 4.77 | CLE | 85 | 100 | 94 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 6.5 | 3.92 | 5.77 | 39.5% | 0.95 | 4.63 | OAK | 83 | 91 | 84 | |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | -6.1 | 4.05 | 5.43 | 51.4% | 1.07 | 4.26 | 1.67 | SFO | 83 | 93 | 155 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | -8.3 | 4.04 | 5.8 | 44.2% | 0.95 | 4.13 | 3.58 | ANA | 98 | 101 | 104 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | -3.1 | 3.85 | 6.01 | 50.9% | 1.05 | 3.82 | 4.55 | MIL | 92 | 100 | 103 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -7.2 | 4.11 | 5.8 | 47.5% | 1.05 | 3.77 | 3.71 | COL | 84 | 96 | 73 |
One important note here is that with the season just under way, we’re still using some 2016 stats to start the season this week (even if it says 2017). Stats for the last seven, 14 or 30 days are also from the end of last season and should probably be largely ignored. They’re essentially filling in blank spaces right now. Also, we’re still using last year’s park factors as I’ve yet to find an updated site with multi-year factors. Feel free to leave a message if you know of one.
Jake Arrieta appears to be the cream of the crop today, but I’d actually be a bit more cautious than expected with him to start the season. The strikeout rate was merely good (not great) last year, while the walk rate climbed to 9.6%. His 52.6 GB% was also a drop from the previous year, but still one of the top marks in the league, while his contact management was also top of the line, as you can see below. Add all those weak ground balls to the excellent Chicago defense and you can partially explain a .241 BABIP, but expecting that to continue is another story. Lastly, we’re seeing a two mph drop in velocity this spring. Maybe he rectifies that today and St Louis can be a nice place to pitch early in the season. He’s still probably a very good pitcher, but I’m unsold on him continuing to be an Ace at this point.
Jake Odorizzi has traditionally rode average peripherals with a low HR rate at home to above average results. He maintained the results last year, with an ERA more than a half run below his estimators, but with 13 HRs allowed (11 at home the previous two seasons combined). Our Statcast numbers show his aEV on the upper end and his barrel rates are second worst on the board. The park gives him more room for error than other AL East parks, but homers overall are up in Tampa Bay. Last year’s ERA gap was more a product of a 79 LOB% than HR suppression. If that drops and he doesn’t go back to suppressing HRs, we might be looking at an ERA around four, which isn’t terrible in that division.
Johnny Cueto was back to his old self in his first year in San Francisco. Well, not really. A spacious park led to HR suppression rather than the sub-.240 BABIP he generated in his last two full seasons with the Reds. We shouldn’t expect HR suppression in Arizona, but he’s still a good pitcher facing an offense that had a 15.7 K-BB% vs RHP last year (16.2% at home).
Kenta Maeda was mentioned as a pre-season injury risk in some pre-season writings and the Dodgers often limited his outings to around five innings due to concerns from assuming a more demanding MLB schedule, but the results while he was on the mound were above average. Against the Padres, we should expect five to six very good innings.
Lance McCullers has Cy Young potential in his right arm. A 30.1 K% and 57.3 GB% combo are the things pitching dreams are made of. However, a 12.8 BB% allowing him to exceed six innings in just three of 14 starts this year is the type of thing that can shatter those dreams. Even with that, all of his estimators were in line with an ERA just above three. Obviously, as DFS players we care about strikeouts the most and walks mostly in the context that they run up pitch counts. Seattle should continue to have power in the middle of that lineup, but perhaps not as much as last year. Extreme strikeout and ground ball rates should reign supreme here.
Sean Manaea had a double digit SwStr% in 15 of 18 starts from the beginning of June on and was below 9% only once. The 12.9 SwStr% over that span led to just a 22.8 K%. There’s obviously room for much more. The obvious issues are too much hard contact (33.6 Hard%, 90.4 aEV, 5.1% Barrels/PA) when contact was made and that he’s facing an offense that struck out just barely over 16% of the time last season with a terrible defense behind him. However, the contact most of the LAA offense made outside of Trout wasn’t often very potent and the park is certainly in his favor. Meanwhile, the Angels brought in a few bats with a little more swing and miss in the second half of their order this year.
Tyler Anderson emerged as the best pitcher in the Colorado rotation last season. Yes, I say this even with Jon Gray, who certainly has more strikeout upside, on the staff. His 14.9 K-BB% with a 50.9 GB% and just 4.0 Hard-Soft% essentially played home or away and even though Milwaukee is a hitter’s park, any vacation from Coors is Paradise for the Colorado pitching staff. Statcast gives him the lowest aEV on the board with a virtual tie for the lowest Barrel rates. The Brewers have some power, but strike out a ton.
Zach Davies looks like a perfectly average pitcher in most respects (strikeout rate, ground ball rate, home run rate), who, despite a 33.8 Hard%, appeared to be an efficient contact manager according to his Statcast numbers last season. In fact, Eno Sarris called him potentially the next Mr. Hendricks this winter. A few Colorado bats showed some potential away from Coors last year, but is still a mediocre lineup at best in most parks.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Clayton Richard (.338 – 72.9% – 9.8) looks like he’s being mis-labeled with no outstanding factors in any of the metrics quoted here. However, consider that counting all his runs allowed, rather than earned runs, would drive his E-less RA up to 4.65. Encouraging signs were that his 65 GB% would have easily led baseball with enough innings and his 8.4 SwStr% was the highest of his career, even if it did not result in any assistance at all to his strikeout rate. The Dodgers were obnoxiously terrible vs LHP last year, but the acquisitions of Forsythe and Gutierrez, along with something more out of Puig, should remedy that situation.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Matt Shoemaker had a 23.2 K% over his final 20 starts of the season. He had a 15 K% over his final nine starts. He had a 16.6 K% on the road (26.6% at home). Oakland has a below average offense, but they strike out less than the average offense. I really believed I was going to like him a lot more before looking at the fading strikeout rate down the stretch, even knowing about the extreme home/road split. He has some of the highest Barrel rates on the board and Oakland does possess some thump in the middle of the order.
CC Sabathia was just one of two regular starting pitchers (more than 190 BBE) with an exit velocity below 86 mph last year (the other is also pitching today) and was an expert contact manager overall. It was a remarkable resurgence without the benefit of reclaimed velocity. We’ll surely explore it more in depth at some point (if it continues this year), but first, we have to see if it will continue as he’s unlikely to pick owners back up with his strikeout rate if things go south again this year. Although Tampa Bay may have some new names in their lineup, they’ve excelled in recent years in finding inexpensive platoon advantages, which generally lends to them being strong against LHP. It’s difficult to find too much fault in him as you’re SP2 on DraftKings for less than $7K, but the risk/reward ratio may not be ideal.
Adam Wainwright was a marginal arm last year and I can’t find a clear reason to expect a rebound. His 87.3 aEV was nice, but that’s about the only place he was above average and his barrel numbers do not compliment that.
Carlos Carrasco might be the most difficult pitcher to decipher today, not because of the talent or skill set, but because I’m not sure where his elbow stands. The club is probably only expecting five innings, at best, in a difficult environment. It’s not ideal to immediately write off a pitcher of this caliber, but circumstances appear to warrant it.
Hisashi Iwakuma had a career low strikeout rate last year with career high fly ball (37.8%) and hard hit rates last year.
Patrick Corbin is a below average strikeout pitcher facing the offense that made the most contact in the NL last year in a terrible park. Additionally, his aEV and Barrel numbers are worst on the board.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 18.9% | 6.6% | Home | 19.9% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 22.8% | 8.9% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 27.5% | 5.8% | Road | 28.1% | 4.5% | L14 Days | ||
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.3% | 7.7% | Road | 19.3% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 9.6% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 12.9% | 7.8% | Road | 11.7% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 5.4% | 12.2% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.1% | 5.0% | Road | 16.0% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 6.7% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.6% | 7.5% | Road | 19.2% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 5.9% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 21.5% | 6.8% | Home | 22.8% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 8.3% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 21.4% | 5.2% | Road | 24.2% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 31.5% | 5.6% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.0% | 7.0% | Home | 25.8% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 9.1% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 27.0% | 10.1% | Home | 31.3% | 11.7% | L14 Days | ||
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 12.7% | 8.4% | Home | 13.0% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 9.3% | 5.3% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 20.9% | 5.3% | Road | 16.6% | 4.5% | L14 Days | ||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.8% | 7.8% | Home | 19.8% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 4.2% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 20.9% | 6.2% | Home | 21.3% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 5.6% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 20.7% | 5.9% | Road | 19.9% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 3.3% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.4% | 6.5% | Home | 21.4% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Road | 21.6% | 9.8% | RH | 21.5% | 10.3% | L7Days | 20.4% | 12.2% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.2% | 8.0% | RH | 20.0% | 7.2% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.1% |
| Rays | Home | 25.9% | 7.7% | LH | 25.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 20.8% | 5.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 21.5% | 8.5% | LH | 22.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.5% | 6.0% |
| Astros | Home | 24.5% | 9.0% | RH | 23.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.5% | 5.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.9% | 8.5% | RH | 21.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.0% | 8.4% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.8% | 7.0% | RH | 20.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 17.4% | 10.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.5% | 7.3% | RH | 22.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 22.2% | 7.4% |
| Padres | Road | 25.9% | 6.7% | RH | 24.9% | 7.3% | L7Days | 25.5% | 5.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.2% | 7.4% | RH | 20.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.6% | 8.0% |
| Indians | Road | 21.7% | 7.4% | LH | 20.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.7% | 12.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 18.4% | 6.9% | RH | 19.0% | 7.6% | L7Days | 21.3% | 7.1% |
| Giants | Road | 18.5% | 8.5% | LH | 18.4% | 8.3% | L7Days | 16.9% | 9.7% |
| Angels | Road | 16.6% | 7.7% | LH | 16.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 14.4% | 8.8% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.1% | 10.1% | LH | 24.7% | 11.1% | L7Days | 23.7% | 8.5% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.1% | 6.9% | RH | 20.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 28.1% | 3.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.0% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 2017 | 31.2% | 11.8% | 12.1% | Home | 31.3% | 4.4% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 31.5% | 25.0% | 9.3% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 31.7% | 14.7% | 14.8% | 2017 | 36.4% | 16.3% | 20.4% | Road | 32.5% | 11.9% | 14.5% | L14 Days | |||
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 26.9% | 14.5% | 6.6% | 2017 | 24.7% | 12.6% | 0.7% | Road | 25.6% | 10.0% | 2.7% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 11.1% | -8.1% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 25.6% | 11.1% | 4.4% | 2017 | 25.9% | 9.8% | 4.3% | Road | 22.9% | 15.4% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 9.1% | 14.8% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | L2 Years | 30.5% | 13.0% | 13.9% | 2017 | 32.6% | 11.9% | 15.8% | Road | 29.1% | 11.6% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 41.5% | 20.0% | 19.5% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 23.6% | 9.5% | 0.7% | 2017 | 25.2% | 11.1% | 2.3% | Road | 28.5% | 13.7% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 30.5% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 2017 | 33.7% | 12.0% | 16.9% | Home | 34.4% | 10.8% | 16.4% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 40.0% | 14.2% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 27.9% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 2017 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | Road | 30.3% | 14.3% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 0.0% | -3.0% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.0% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 2017 | 29.0% | 11.8% | 9.0% | Home | 27.5% | 10.5% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 16.7% | 34.3% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 27.6% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 2017 | 25.4% | 11.9% | 5.5% | Home | 20.6% | 16.7% | -1.3% | L14 Days | |||
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 28.4% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 2017 | 30.7% | 10.4% | 14.8% | Home | 27.7% | 10.8% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 13.3% | 7.9% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 30.5% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 2017 | 30.1% | 10.3% | 12.7% | Road | 30.6% | 9.3% | 13.5% | L14 Days | |||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 36.1% | 16.0% | 20.4% | 2017 | 38.5% | 18.3% | 23.3% | Home | 42.9% | 20.0% | 31.6% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 33.6% | 13.7% | 15.2% | 2017 | 33.6% | 13.7% | 15.2% | Home | 32.8% | 10.5% | 15.3% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 8.3% | -4.0% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 28.2% | 12.4% | 4.0% | 2017 | 28.2% | 12.4% | 4.0% | Road | 24.6% | 12.5% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 6.3% | -10.2% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.5% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 2017 | 33.8% | 12.4% | 14.1% | Home | 34.6% | 14.2% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 25.0% | 22.2% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Road | 32.2% | 14.4% | 13.4% | RH | 31.3% | 12.6% | 11.6% | L7Days | 26.8% | 12.5% | 7.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 31.5% | 13.7% | 12.2% | RH | 31.1% | 14.1% | 12.0% | L7Days | 34.9% | 10.4% | 15.2% |
| Rays | Home | 33.4% | 13.4% | 14.4% | LH | 32.9% | 12.3% | 15.8% | L7Days | 30.9% | 4.7% | 8.9% |
| Dodgers | Home | 33.0% | 15.7% | 15.7% | LH | 30.6% | 9.6% | 12.9% | L7Days | 28.5% | 6.7% | 8.9% |
| Astros | Home | 32.9% | 14.5% | 15.2% | RH | 32.5% | 13.9% | 14.8% | L7Days | 27.4% | 4.7% | 8.5% |
| Cardinals | Home | 33.3% | 13.3% | 16.1% | RH | 34.2% | 14.7% | 17.2% | L7Days | 29.1% | 14.5% | 13.2% |
| Yankees | Road | 29.6% | 10.1% | 13.0% | RH | 29.5% | 13.4% | 12.9% | L7Days | 35.1% | 14.8% | 16.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 35.2% | 17.7% | 20.1% | RH | 32.6% | 12.9% | 15.3% | L7Days | 35.5% | 21.1% | 18.9% |
| Padres | Road | 30.4% | 13.8% | 11.1% | RH | 29.8% | 12.7% | 10.6% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.3% | 6.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.1% | 14.9% | 12.0% | RH | 31.4% | 14.9% | 13.2% | L7Days | 30.3% | 17.7% | 4.7% |
| Indians | Road | 30.7% | 10.8% | 11.4% | LH | 29.2% | 10.0% | 11.3% | L7Days | 33.8% | 6.3% | 14.1% |
| Athletics | Home | 27.4% | 8.6% | 9.5% | RH | 29.4% | 10.0% | 10.4% | L7Days | 35.9% | 8.9% | 22.1% |
| Giants | Road | 31.5% | 10.1% | 11.8% | LH | 28.2% | 9.7% | 7.1% | L7Days | 27.7% | 9.6% | 10.6% |
| Angels | Road | 30.9% | 9.4% | 11.8% | LH | 29.5% | 11.0% | 9.8% | L7Days | 25.3% | 8.5% | 5.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 34.3% | 16.3% | 16.7% | LH | 32.7% | 15.9% | 14.8% | L7Days | 26.4% | 20.0% | 5.0% |
| Rockies | Road | 30.5% | 12.3% | 10.6% | RH | 32.9% | 14.6% | 15.4% | L7Days | 33.1% | 4.8% | 15.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 19.0% | 8.1% | 2.35 | 20.0% | 6.7% | 2.99 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 25.0% | 12.0% | 2.08 | 13.5% | 10.2% | 1.32 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 19.8% | 9.9% | 2.00 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.96 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 13.4% | 8.4% | 1.60 | 12.2% | 8.8% | 1.39 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 17.6% | 7.8% | 2.26 | 19.3% | 7.8% | 2.47 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 23.9% | 10.5% | 2.28 | 23.6% | 12.3% | 1.92 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 21.5% | 9.5% | 2.26 | 18.5% | 8.7% | 2.13 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 22.5% | 9.4% | 2.39 | 25.2% | 11.7% | 2.15 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.16 | 24.8% | 10.9% | 2.28 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 30.1% | 13.0% | 2.32 | |||
| Martin Perez | TEX | 12.1% | 7.9% | 1.53 | 12.5% | 9.8% | 1.28 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 21.4% | 13.1% | 1.63 | 40.0% | 19.2% | 2.08 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 18.7% | 9.5% | 1.97 | 33.3% | 14.0% | 2.38 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 20.9% | 11.8% | 1.77 | 22.5% | 10.7% | 2.10 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 20.7% | 10.7% | 1.93 | 15.3% | 9.0% | 1.70 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 19.8% | 8.4% | 2.36 | 18.0% | 8.9% | 2.02 |
While both Clayton Richard and Martin Perez project for some improvement in their strikeout rate, it’s probably not nearly enough to make us re-think things too
much.
Matt Shoemaker had even more potential in his strikeout rate, but had a very strange season when chopped up and dissected.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 4.62 | 4.31 | -0.31 | 4.06 | -0.56 | 3.93 | -0.69 | 4.78 | 0.16 | 5.05 | 4.57 | -0.48 | 4.25 | -0.8 | 5.53 | 0.48 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 3.32 | 3.44 | 0.12 | 3.32 | 0 | 3.72 | 0.4 | 3.13 | -0.19 | 6.55 | 4.72 | -1.83 | 4.54 | -2.01 | 4.78 | -1.77 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 3.91 | 4.35 | 0.44 | 4.31 | 0.4 | 4.28 | 0.37 | 4.08 | 0.17 | 2.27 | 4.27 | 2 | 4.09 | 1.82 | 4.83 | 2.56 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 3.33 | 4.46 | 1.13 | 4.41 | 1.08 | 4.17 | 0.84 | 5.03 | 1.70 | 3.38 | 4.81 | 1.43 | 4.4 | 1.02 | 4.37 | 0.99 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 4.12 | 4.43 | 0.31 | 4.41 | 0.29 | 4.27 | 0.15 | 4.61 | 0.49 | 4.64 | 4.14 | -0.5 | 3.79 | -0.85 | 3.9 | -0.74 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 3.1 | 3.94 | 0.84 | 3.68 | 0.58 | 3.52 | 0.42 | 3.38 | 0.28 | 4.6 | 3.95 | -0.65 | 3.63 | -0.97 | 3.83 | -0.77 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 3.69 | 4.21 | 0.52 | 4.44 | 0.75 | 4.31 | 0.62 | 3.89 | 0.20 | 4.5 | 4.47 | -0.03 | 4.76 | 0.26 | 5.65 | 1.15 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 2.79 | 3.59 | 0.8 | 3.42 | 0.63 | 2.96 | 0.17 | 3.28 | 0.49 | 1.78 | 3.14 | 1.36 | 2.83 | 1.05 | 2.21 | 0.43 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 3.48 | 3.69 | 0.21 | 3.7 | 0.22 | 3.58 | 0.1 | 3.26 | -0.22 | 4.03 | 3.75 | -0.28 | 3.47 | -0.56 | 3.04 | -0.99 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 3.22 | 3.68 | 0.46 | 3.06 | -0.16 | 3 | -0.22 | 3.06 | -0.16 | |||||||
| Martin Perez | TEX | 4.39 | 5.11 | 0.72 | 4.77 | 0.38 | 4.5 | 0.11 | 4.31 | -0.08 | 4.97 | 4.68 | -0.29 | 4.46 | -0.51 | 4.42 | -0.55 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 3.88 | 3.87 | -0.01 | 3.86 | -0.02 | 3.52 | -0.36 | 3.48 | -0.40 | 0 | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 5.15 | 4.38 | -0.77 | 4.23 | -0.92 | 4.84 | -0.31 | 5.44 | 0.29 | 1.2 | 1.88 | 0.68 | 2.23 | 1.03 | 2.21 | 1.01 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 3.86 | 4.04 | 0.18 | 3.96 | 0.1 | 4.08 | 0.22 | 3.70 | -0.16 | 1.13 | 3.54 | 2.41 | 3.34 | 2.21 | 2.77 | 1.64 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 3.54 | 3.84 | 0.3 | 3.64 | 0.1 | 3.59 | 0.05 | 4.16 | 0.62 | 3.96 | 4.61 | 0.65 | 4.49 | 0.53 | 3.67 | -0.29 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 3.97 | 4.06 | 0.09 | 3.94 | -0.03 | 3.89 | -0.08 | 3.91 | -0.06 | 3.38 | 3.88 | 0.5 | 3.72 | 0.34 | 3.48 | 0.1 |
Jake Arrieta rode excellent contact management and an historic defense to a BABIP below .250 for the second straight season.
Jake Odorizzi stranded runners at a career high rate last year, rather than limit HRs at home.
Johnny Cueto suppressed HRs in a big park last year and should probably continue to do so when pitching at home.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.304 | 0.330 | 0.026 | 43.8% | 0.255 | 10.7% | 91.7% | 87.3 | 6.30% | 4.10% | 557 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.289 | 0.289 | 0 | 48.5% | 0.2 | 3.1% | 86.7% | 90.2 | 5.30% | 3.30% | 374 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.292 | 0.288 | -0.004 | 50.1% | 0.169 | 13.7% | 86.7% | 85.3 | 4.80% | 2.90% | 461 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.296 | 0.338 | 0.042 | 65.1% | 0.17 | 2.4% | 88.3% | 89.3 | 3.10% | 2.00% | 192 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 0.292 | 0.311 | 0.019 | 40.8% | 0.214 | 11.0% | 91.1% | 89.3 | 5.90% | 3.90% | 561 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.255 | 0.241 | -0.014 | 52.6% | 0.195 | 7.6% | 86.1% | 87.2 | 4.50% | 2.50% | 445 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.297 | 0.271 | -0.026 | 36.6% | 0.19 | 9.1% | 84.9% | 90.4 | 8.20% | 5.30% | 499 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.287 | 0.293 | 0.006 | 50.2% | 0.208 | 11.8% | 86.9% | 88.4 | 5.20% | 3.20% | 540 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.288 | 0.283 | -0.005 | 43.9% | 0.205 | 11.2% | 83.6% | 86 | 5.60% | 3.40% | 425 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.306 | 0.383 | 0.077 | 57.3% | 0.216 | 9.5% | 88.8% | 88.9 | 5.50% | 2.80% | 181 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.292 | 0.286 | -0.006 | 53.2% | 0.204 | 5.2% | 89.9% | 90.1 | 6.00% | 4.20% | 598 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.301 | 0.315 | 0.014 | 39.8% | 0.237 | 13.2% | 85.0% | 88.5 | 7.80% | 4.80% | 411 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.320 | 0.322 | 0.002 | 53.8% | 0.194 | 4.6% | 91.5% | 90.7 | 9.30% | 5.60% | 421 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 0.299 | 0.281 | -0.018 | 44.2% | 0.211 | 8.2% | 86.6% | 90.4 | 7.70% | 5.10% | 388 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 0.317 | 0.318 | 0.001 | 50.9% | 0.204 | 8.2% | 85.9% | 85.1 | 3.20% | 2.10% | 309 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.300 | 0.302 | 0.002 | 45.5% | 0.22 | 7.5% | 86.5% | 88.1 | 5.20% | 3.20% | 426 |
Lance McCullers shows even more potential when considering the absurd BABIP without any real supporting factors. To counter a significant drop though, we’d expect him not to sustain an 81.4 LOB% from last season either.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Tyler Anderson (4t) generated a league average strikeout rate with lot of weak ground contact last year. If it plays in Coors, it certainly plays in Milwaukee. The Brewers accentuate that strikeout rate to where I only clearly have him behind two or three pitchers tonight. Looking at his price tag, I’m trying to figure out if I missed him losing most of the fingers on his left hand at some point during the off-season. While these things don’t always work out on any given day, his cost has the potential to be one of the bigger gifts to the DFS community this season.
Sean Manaea (4t) could break out this year. Contact issues need to be dealt with and he has to learn to put batters away, but the stuff is impressive and the cost is cheap. If things break right, we may be seeing his price tag up a few thousand in a couple of months. The Angels aren’t an ideal DFS opponent, but the upside beyond cost is still significant.
Value Tier Two
Lance McCullers (1) has top of the league upside whenever he takes the mound. You don’t often see a 30% strikeout rate for less than $10K. Control issues running up his pitch count and knocking him out in six innings or less would be the largest concern.
Johnny Cueto (2) does not enjoy the benefits of pitching at home tonight and, in fact, transitions to possibly the second most hitter friendly environment in baseball. While the Diamondbacks may have had a 17.7 HR/FB at home last season, this is still a lineup a good pitcher should be able to navigate. The $9.2K price tag on FanDuel is very reasonable.
Kenta Maeda (6) might be a bit costly for a five inning pitcher, but with potentially the best matchup on the board, we should expect excellence during those five innings.
Value Tier Three
Zach Davies might be an average pitcher in an average to slightly below average spot at home against the Rockies. While it looks like he allowed hard contact at a higher than average rate last season, Statcast was more optimistic on his contact management. The low cost certainly makes him an option tonight.
Jake Arrieta (3) – I contemplated dropping him not only a tier, but maybe even entirely off our wish list tonight. He’s the only pitcher to cost more than $10K on both sites and it’s not a great matchup, as the Cardinals do have some RHBs that hit RHP well, but conditions should be favorable and he still dominated RHBs last year (.246 wOBA, 17.6 K-BB%, 55.2 GB%, -2.1 Hard-Soft%). I don’t think that the upside potential has completely abandoned him here.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jake Odorizzi is probably an average pitcher with a chance to be better, making him rosterable at an average cost. He should accumulate enough strikeouts to be useful and an exceptional outfield defense should take care of the fly balls that don’t leave the park. The Yankees don’t have a bad offense and should be a bit improved from last year if all the kids pan out, but there are still plenty of holes.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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