Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, July 6th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSclafani | CIN | WAS | 128.1 | 4.35 | 4.30 | 1.36 | 20.0% | 16.9% | 7.6% | 0.70 | 1.15 |
| Fister | WAS | CIN | 222 | 2.92 | 4.16 | 1.15 | 58.3% | 13.9% | 4.1% | 1.05 | 1.36 |
| Shields | SDP | PIT | 331.1 | 3.50 | 3.42 | 1.23 | 42.9% | 21.9% | 5.7% | 1.09 | 1.31 |
| Burnett | PIT | SDP | 319 | 3.75 | 3.77 | 1.35 | 38.1% | 20.5% | 9.0% | 0.65 | 1.95 |
| Keuchel | HOU | CLE | 324.1 | 2.58 | 2.99 | 1.09 | 50.0% | 19.3% | 6.1% | 0.50 | 3.60 |
| Carrasco | CLE | HOU | 231.1 | 3.11 | 2.65 | 1.05 | 27.1% | 5.4% | 0.62 | 1.73 | |
| Lackey | STL | CHC | 301.2 | 3.64 | 3.77 | 1.27 | 57.9% | 19.0% | 5.8% | 0.95 | 1.29 |
| Lester | CHC | STL | 316 | 2.85 | 3.20 | 1.17 | 65.0% | 24.2% | 5.9% | 0.74 | 1.27 |
| Wisler | ATL | MIL | 17.1 | 2.60 | 5.07 | 1.21 | 11.1% | 6.9% | 0.52 | 1.05 | |
| Lohse | MIL | ATL | 296.1 | 4.43 | 4.10 | 1.22 | 50.0% | 17.0% | 5.4% | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| Chen | BAL | MIN | 280.2 | 3.30 | 3.83 | 1.19 | 31.6% | 18.5% | 4.9% | 1.22 | 1.04 |
| Hughes | MIN | BAL | 315 | 3.77 | 3.51 | 1.16 | 45.0% | 19.4% | 2.0% | 1.00 | 0.89 |
| Buehrle | TOR | CHW | 308.1 | 3.47 | 4.32 | 1.30 | 60.0% | 13.6% | 5.1% | 0.79 | 1.37 |
| Sale | CHW | TOR | 277.1 | 2.43 | 2.42 | 0.97 | 64.3% | 31.9% | 5.6% | 0.68 | 1.04 |
| Colome | TBR | KCR | 92.2 | 4.18 | 4.76 | 1.36 | 14.6% | 8.7% | 0.97 | 1.10 | |
| Volquez | KCR | TBR | 288.1 | 3.18 | 4.19 | 1.22 | 50.0% | 17.6% | 8.6% | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Simon | DET | SEA | 287.2 | 3.60 | 4.19 | 1.25 | 63.2% | 16.3% | 7.1% | 0.97 | 1.45 |
| Iwakuma | SEA | DET | 195.1 | 3.78 | 3.04 | 1.08 | 60.0% | 21.2% | 3.1% | 1.15 | 1.71 |
| O’Sullivan | PHI | LAD | 78.1 | 5.86 | 4.88 | 1.54 | 11.1% | 5.7% | 1.95 | 1.11 | |
| Niese | NYM | SFG | 277.2 | 3.57 | 3.90 | 1.34 | 41.2% | 16.9% | 6.4% | 0.88 | 1.78 |
| Heston | SFG | NYM | 103 | 3.84 | 3.45 | 1.25 | 19.6% | 6.8% | 0.52 | 2.56 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Chris Sale CHW (vs. TOR) – The Jays might be the highest scoring team in the game, but the dominance of Sale knows no bounds, and it doesn’t help Toronto’s case that they’re playing outside the friendly confines of Rogers Centre where they score an extra half-run per game. That said, the Blue Jays are a much tougher opponent than the teams that he has been punching out like he was Mike Tyson; in fact, Toronto is that much better at scoring runs than every other team in the majors, registering 0.75 more runs per contest than the second-best club. The Jays have also destroyed southpaws this season, with a ridiculous .309/.375/.500 slash as a team against left-handers this season, for an 875 OPS that is 121 points higher than when facing a right-hander. Sale is still considered the top option today, but he will have his work cut out for him.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Dallas Keuchel HOU (at CLE) – I never thought that I would have Keuchel on the cusp of All-in territory, yet here he is, sitting on top of the Raise pile. He leads the A.L. with a 2.03 ERA, has the lowest ratio of hits allowed in the circuit (among starters), and leads the majors with 124.3 innings pitched this season. Topping it all off, he seems to keep getting better, and in his last two starts Keuchel has pitched 17.0 innings of shutout baseball with 19 strikeouts and one walk. He has already blanked the Indians once this season, putting up zeroes for seven full frames in his first start of the year. It’s easy to say that a low-K pitcher’s upside is limited in DFS, but Keuchel has already posted a pair of games with double-digit strikeouts this season while his penchant for complete games and shutouts offer the chance at bonuses that overshadow his pedestrian strikeout rate.
Carlos Carrasco CLE (vs. HOU) – The right-hander has been painfully inconsistent this season, but his last couple of starts offer the hope that he has turned the corner. Carrasco is coming off of his best game of the season, falling one strike shy of a no-hitter while drumming up 13 strikeouts against just two walks versus the Rays. At 95.7 mph on average, Carrasco’s fastball is a half-tick shy of last season’s mark, and he hasn’t been generating as many swings (or whiffs on those swings) with the slider as he did last season, but his K-to-walk ratio is an astounding 5.24 that ranks as the best mark of his career.
A.J. Burnett PIT (vs. SD) – The 38-year old right-hander has been playing out of his mind in 2015, but he’s been playing a bit over his head as well. He was unstoppable for his first nine starts, never allowing more than two earned runs in a ballgame en route to a 1.37 ERA that was clearly unsustainable. Sure enough, his last seven turns have resulted in a higher 2.91 ERA, and the peripheral stats – 55 hits and just 37 strikeouts in 46.3 innings pitched – suggest that even that number may have been artificially high. He faces a struggling Padre offense tonight, so he might be able to keep up the charade a bit longer.
James Shields SD (at PIT) – The first two months of Shields’ tenure in the National League were full of strikeouts and homers allowed, and though he has since calmed both of measures, then net result has been an increase of runs crossing the plate. The right-hander struck out seven or more batters in nine of his first 10 starts, but he has only reached that plateau twice in his last seven turns and hasn’t exceeded seven punchouts in a ballgame since May 19; meanwhile, Shields has an ERA of 4.71 despite his allowing just two home runs in his last 42.0 frames.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSclafani | 0.329 | 4.70 | 0.306 | 3.96 | 0.259 | 0.731 | 0.301 | 3.72 | 0.259 | 70.93 | 16.9% |
| Fister | 0.306 | 2.90 | 0.298 | 2.93 | 0.251 | 0.714 | 0.270 | 4.12 | 0.252 | 96.43 | 13.9% |
| Shields | 0.336 | 3.44 | 0.305 | 3.56 | 0.262 | 0.711 | 0.304 | 3.73 | 0.254 | 103.84 | 21.9% |
| Burnett | 0.325 | 4.14 | 0.309 | 3.43 | 0.240 | 0.668 | 0.309 | 3.62 | 0.251 | 100.34 | 20.5% |
| Keuchel | 0.229 | 2.22 | 0.282 | 2.69 | 0.262 | 0.731 | 0.275 | 3.10 | 0.229 | 104.85 | 19.3% |
| Carrasco | 0.245 | 2.86 | 0.284 | 3.32 | 0.241 | 0.742 | 0.295 | 2.58 | 0.223 | 61.70 | 27.1% |
| Lackey | 0.319 | 3.36 | 0.308 | 3.92 | 0.239 | 0.693 | 0.301 | 3.66 | 0.259 | 97.30 | 19.0% |
| Lester | 0.321 | 2.48 | 0.289 | 2.95 | 0.233 | 0.670 | 0.307 | 2.99 | 0.243 | 105.54 | 24.2% |
| Wisler | 0.261 | 1.17 | 0.338 | 3.72 | 0.255 | 0.694 | 0.263 | 3.95 | 0.242 | 82.33 | 11.1% |
| Lohse | 0.319 | 4.37 | 0.319 | 4.49 | 0.261 | 0.696 | 0.280 | 4.28 | 0.254 | 96.46 | 17.0% |
| Chen | 0.295 | 2.77 | 0.321 | 3.48 | 0.258 | 0.705 | 0.283 | 4.02 | 0.253 | 96.17 | 18.5% |
| Hughes | 0.293 | 3.28 | 0.326 | 4.35 | 0.254 | 0.739 | 0.312 | 3.28 | 0.269 | 94.19 | 19.4% |
| Buehrle | 0.331 | 3.84 | 0.319 | 3.33 | 0.223 | 0.575 | 0.303 | 3.80 | 0.274 | 95.50 | 13.6% |
| Sale | 0.197 | 0.18 | 0.267 | 2.91 | 0.309 | 0.878 | 0.287 | 2.39 | 0.203 | 106.83 | 31.9% |
| Colome | 0.316 | 4.30 | 0.312 | 4.02 | 0.270 | 0.731 | 0.284 | 4.40 | 0.258 | 82.17 | 14.6% |
| Volquez | 0.299 | 3.11 | 0.294 | 3.24 | 0.236 | 0.663 | 0.264 | 4.00 | 0.228 | 93.79 | 17.6% |
| Simon | 0.332 | 4.10 | 0.288 | 3.04 | 0.225 | 0.658 | 0.276 | 4.18 | 0.248 | 95.89 | 16.3% |
| Iwakuma | 0.317 | 3.64 | 0.265 | 3.93 | 0.276 | 0.746 | 0.287 | 3.50 | 0.248 | 90.32 | 21.2% |
| O’Sullivan | 0.468 | 7.12 | 0.324 | 5.06 | 0.257 | 0.783 | 0.310 | 5.91 | 0.309 | 83.27 | 11.1% |
| Frias | 0.390 | 5.91 | 0.281 | 4.25 | 0.240 | 0.642 | 0.325 | 4.02 | 0.287 | 54.03 | 15.6% |
| Niese | 0.298 | 3.65 | 0.337 | 3.54 | 0.268 | 0.700 | 0.307 | 3.87 | 0.268 | 93.71 | 16.9% |
| Heston | 0.359 | 5.32 | 0.263 | 2.75 | 0.231 | 0.646 | 0.311 | 3.29 | 0.255 | 83.16 | 19.6% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Jon Lester CHC (vs. STL) – Lester finds himself in the Call box despite an opponent that ranks in the bottom third of the league in terms of run-scoring. The $155 million man has endured speedbumps seemingly every step of the way, and though he is coming off of a 7.0-inning blanking of Mets, the southpaw is also two starts removed from a parade of four’s: four hits, four runs (four earned), four walks, and five strikeouts against the Dodgers as his ERA has played slalom with 4.00. The Cardinals rank in the bottom third of the league in terms of run-scoring, and they dig an even deeper grave when a lefty is on the mound with St. Louis having an OPS that is 65 points lower when facing a southpaw.
John Lackey STL (at CHC) – Much has been made in this space about the eight-run bleeding that Lackey took at the hands of the Rockies in Colorado, and how that one outing is unjustly tainting his overall line. It’s a bit of narrative to describe the shape of his season, but Lackey continues to prove that narrative true by allowing three or fewer runs in in every non-Denver start since April 22nd. It will be interesting to see who steps up in tonight’s battle of ex-teammates and who throws in the towel, and though Lackey appears to have a decided disadvantage with the hot tub.
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (vs. DET) – Iwakuma was a revelation for the Mariners over the past two seasons, but a strained lat injury has derailed his train of trap-door splitters this season. He was hit rather hard to start the season, coughing up four earned runs in each of his first three starts before heading to the disabled list, and tonight Iwakuma returns from a hiatus that spanned more than two months. He breezed through his rehab starts and the hope is that he will be ready to put the rough start behind him and get back to his roots of batter disruption and confusion.
Edinson Volquez KC (vs. TB) – Volquez has lost a touch of his early-season edge but is still a trustier threat than is often recognized, and though the Rays are one of the softest opponents on the schedule, it will be necessary to keep runs off the board in order to keep my planner in line.
Alfredo Simon DET (at SEA) – He has been knocked around a little in his last 3 starts, giving up 18 earned runs through 14.0 innings, and that was all it took to inflate his ERA from 2.58 on June 15 to the 3.94 mark that we see today, bringing his ERA in line with his seasonal FIP. Considering his reliance on the Tiger defense and the team’s history of spotty performances with the glove, there is a good chance that we have already seen his peak this season and that Simon might finally give in to a neighborhood full of kids.
Doug Fister WAS (vs. CIN) – Few runs with no K’s make Doug a dull boy.
Matt Wisler ATL (at MIL)
Wei-Yin Chen BAL (vs. MIN)
Jon Niese NYM (at SF)
Chris Heston SF (vs. NYM)
Alex Colome TB (at KC)
Phil Hughes MIN (vs. BAL)
Anthony DeSclafani CIN (at WAS)
Mark Buehrle TOR (at CHW)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Kyle Lohse MIL (vs. ATL)
Sean O’Sullivan PHI (at LAD)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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