Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, August 22nd

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-08-24 23:16:28

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Salazar	CLE	NYY	249.2	3.64	3.22	1.20	12.5%	26.6%	7.3%	1.12	1.01
Severino	NYY	CLE	17	3.18	3.10	1.06		26.5%	5.9%	1.06	1.29
Leake	SFG	PIT	357.1	3.63	3.69	1.21	45.0%	17.4%	5.8%	0.96	2.02
Cole	PIT	SFG	293.1	3.10	3.16	1.17	28.6%	24.4%	6.3%	0.61	1.68
Perez	ATL	CHC	74.2	4.34	5.09	1.50		14.1%	11.3%	0.84	1.56
Haren	CHC	ATL	330	3.85	3.99	1.16	30.0%	18.0%	4.7%	1.47	0.87
Jungmann	MIL	WAS	80.2	2.23	3.65	1.12		22.4%	8.0%	0.22	1.68
Ross	WAS	MIL	53.2	3.86	3.05	1.08		24.7%	4.1%	1.01	1.38
Gibson	MIN	BAL	326	4.25	4.14	1.31	52.6%	15.4%	7.6%	0.77	2.04
Tillman	BAL	MIN	330.1	3.79	4.39	1.27	42.9%	16.9%	8.0%	0.95	1.08
Gallardo	TEX	DET	335.2	3.46	4.11	1.32	50.0%	16.7%	7.6%	0.86	1.72
Wolf	DET	TEX	25.2	5.26	3.98	1.52	25.0%	16.8%	5.3%	1.40	1.03
Greinke	LAD	HOU	367.2	2.20	3.00	1.02	50.0%	24.6%	5.0%	0.66	1.60
Kazmir	HOU	LAD	331.1	3.07	3.72	1.14	63.2%	21.3%	7.1%	0.73	1.23
Delgado	ARI	CIN	127.2	4.02	3.52	1.35		24.3%	10.3%	0.85	0.90
Desclafani	CIN	ARI	171	4.21	4.24	1.36	20.0%	17.7%	7.4%	0.89	1.17
Harang	PHI	MIA	330.1	4.03	4.34	1.39	75.0%	17.2%	7.5%	0.84	0.95
Nicolino	MIA	PHI	23.1	4.24	5.21	1.33		7.3%	6.3%	0.39	1.73
Ventura	KCR	BOS	291.1	3.80	3.90	1.30	44.4%	20.1%	8.6%	0.80	1.58
Barnes	BOS	KCR	36.1	5.94	3.64	1.76		21.5%	7.6%	1.98	0.75
Niese	NYM	COL	329	3.45	3.89	1.28	41.2%	16.8%	6.0%	0.90	1.82
Rusin	COL	NYM	103	4.37	4.00	1.52		15.3%	6.1%	1.05	1.96
Martinez	STL	SDP	231.2	3.15	3.43	1.33		23.2%	8.9%	0.62	2.02
Kennedy	SDP	STL	323	3.85	3.60	1.28	47.6%	23.6%	7.9%	1.17	1.02
Estrada	TOR	LAA	274.1	3.84	4.15	1.16	27.8%	19.7%	7.4%	1.38	0.65
Heaney	LAA	TOR	92.1	3.51	4.01	1.13	25.0%	16.9%	4.5%	1.07	1.12
Ramirez	TBR	OAK	191.1	4.23	4.22	1.27	27.3%	18.1%	8.1%	1.08	1.18
Gray	OAK	TBR	386.1	2.63	3.53	1.10	60.0%	20.9%	7.5%	0.58	1.96
Rodon	CHW	SEA	99.2	4.42	4.08	1.55		23.9%	12.2%	0.81	1.58
Nuno	SEA	CHW	210.1	4.24	3.80	1.25	18.8%	20.1%	6.5%	1.41	0.88

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Zack Greinke LAD (at HOU) – Greinke’s strikeout rate doesn’t jump out when looking at the per-inning stats, with 150 K’s in his 165.3 frames this season, but he also faces very few batters because of his machine-like efficiency in chewing through a lineup; his 23.8-percent K rate is a better indicator of his bat-missing skills this season. His walk rate of 4.6 percent is an all-time low for the right-hander, as is his paltry rate of allowing extra-base hits to just 4.4 percent of the batters he faces. He’s allowing an MLB-low 6.2 hits per nine innings, carving out the peripheral recipe for the best ERA and WHIP in baseball. Facing the most K-prone team in the American League, Greinke might be able to pad his strikeout numbers just by sticking with the status quo and attacking hitters with his usual five-pitch arsenal.

Sonny Gray OAK (vs. TB) – He’s the American League’s version of Greinke this season, currently leading his circuit in both ERA and WHIP, though Gray’s numbers are less likely to achieve legendary status. He does have the easier opponent today, facing a Rays club that lines up differently depending on the handedness of the opposing pitcher and achieves very disparate results. To make matters worse for Rays batters, Gray has a modest reversal to his platoon split this season, so the left-handed bats that will likely get loaded into the Tampa Bay lineup will be treated to a pitcher who has silenced lefties by an extra 50 points of OPS.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Carlos Martinez STL (at SD) – Martinez was walking a fine line, giving up too many free passes yet escaping trouble innings unscathed, so it’s not a surprise that regression has started its gravitational pull on his numbers. In his last four games, Martinez has surrendered a 5.09 ERA despite punching out 23 batters with just three walks allowed over those starts. The luck of the draw shines on Martinez today, basking in the San Diego sunlight in the joy that he is facing one of the lightest-hitting ballclubs in the majors.

Scott Kazmir HOU (vs. LAD) – He was nearly matching Greinke’s historic run through the month of July, with just one run given up across five starts spanning 34.0 innings, but the month of August has not been so kind. He has yet to finish the sixth inning in any of his three starts this month, has surrendered at least three runs in each contest, and has even starting giving away free passes with seven walks issued in his last 16.7 innings. High K counts are not part of Kazmir’s game so his fantasy value is tied up in run prevention, and tonight he faces a Dodger lineup whose team wOBA of .330 is one of the highest in baseball.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Salazar	0.298	3.49	0.307	3.76	0.251	0.742	0.299	3.54	0.235	98.71	26.6%
Severino	0.305	3.12	0.259	3.24	0.251	0.712	0.279	3.40	0.222	98.33	26.5%
Leake	0.339	4.10	0.283	3.21	0.261	0.721	0.285	3.90	0.251	96.42	17.4%
Cole	0.298	2.40	0.295	3.72	0.271	0.749	0.314	2.97	0.243	100.65	24.4%
Perez	0.360	5.86	0.308	2.97	0.241	0.707	0.297	4.90	0.266	78.73	14.1%
Haren	0.321	3.87	0.310	3.83	0.258	0.684	0.266	4.43	0.246	95.79	18.0%
Jungmann	0.283	1.79	0.255	2.68	0.248	0.712	0.283	2.81	0.218	100.31	22.4%
Ross	0.395	4.15	0.198	3.66	0.258	0.709	0.291	3.17	0.236	89.67	24.7%
Gibson	0.306	3.99	0.310	4.53	0.254	0.741	0.287	3.98	0.255	95.20	15.4%
Tillman	0.297	2.90	0.323	4.80	0.246	0.698	0.274	4.15	0.243	97.46	16.9%
Gallardo	0.303	3.45	0.310	3.46	0.272	0.750	0.289	3.95	0.254	99.98	16.7%
Wolf	0.282	4.15	0.404	5.48	0.247	0.708	0.345	4.38	0.308	71.67	16.8%
Greinke	0.264	1.93	0.261	2.43	0.242	0.727	0.280	2.78	0.222	100.95	24.6%
Kazmir	0.302	3.20	0.275	3.03	0.260	0.747	0.274	3.38	0.227	94.60	21.3%
Delgado	0.307	3.31	0.307	4.54	0.247	0.699	0.299	3.68	0.235	25.80	24.3%
Desclafani	0.354	5.13	0.296	3.28	0.265	0.732	0.306	3.92	0.264	75.08	17.7%
Harang	0.339	3.53	0.318	4.43	0.250	0.668	0.312	3.88	0.27	100.83	17.2%
Nicolino	0.273	2.57	0.353	4.96	0.264	0.706	0.296	3.97	0.281	84.50	7.3%
Ventura	0.307	3.88	0.310	3.70	0.261	0.724	0.292	3.77	0.244	94.60	20.1%
Barnes	0.396	5.40	0.417	6.41	0.269	0.736	0.381	5.10	0.323	24.78	21.5%
Niese	0.303	3.91	0.324	3.31	0.246	0.647	0.297	3.91	0.261	92.70	16.8%
Rusin	0.356	5.72	0.347	3.86	0.228	0.656	0.336	4.11	0.3	81.60	15.3%
Martinez	0.351	3.75	0.270	2.66	0.245	0.684	0.320	3.30	0.25	44.60	23.2%
Kennedy	0.322	3.84	0.326	3.85	0.259	0.720	0.299	3.92	0.246	99.95	23.6%
Estrada	0.298	3.51	0.317	4.17	0.248	0.705	0.247	4.49	0.224	71.75	19.7%
Heaney	0.242	1.82	0.329	4.31	0.281	0.815	0.273	4.09	0.246	82.94	16.9%
Ramirez	0.291	3.59	0.340	5.11	0.252	0.701	0.275	4.41	0.242	70.14	18.1%
Gray	0.264	2.32	0.264	3.01	0.241	0.677	0.263	3.26	0.217	100.30	20.9%
Rodon	0.246	4.03	0.373	4.58	0.259	0.705	0.338	3.93	0.26	91.25	23.9%
Nuno	0.258	2.75	0.346	4.77	0.234	0.623	0.283	4.38	0.251	61.13	20.1%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Carlos Rodon CHW (at SEA) – Rodon is one of my favorite pitchers to use in the large GPP tournaments. He is extremely volatile and can end your night early with a parade of walks and runs, but he also has the rare upside to spike double-digit strikeouts for a minimal investment, allowing for a stacked lineup. The Mariners have been clobbering pitchers lately, with a .345 wOBA and 797 OPS over their last seven ballgames, but last night’s 14-strikeout whiff-fest against Chris Sale helped to pump up their team K rate to 25.4 percent over the same stretch. Facing a low-scoring team in a pitcher’s ballpark could be a recipe for another Rodon spike.

Taylor Jungmann MIL (at WAS) – I don’t know how he does it, considering his modest velocity (fastball average of 92.8 mph) and what is essentially a two-pitch repertoire, considering that he brings the heat or the curve a combined 94 percent of the time. Yet not only does he continue to keep runs off the scoreboard, but he is becoming increasingly efficient at it while upping the ante on his K rate. His first six starts were absurdly consistent in that department, striking out exactly four or five batters in each contest. Then he whiffed seven batters in a game, and before you knew it he had struck out exactly seven batters three times in a four-game span. That was the cap until three starts ago when he struck out eight Padres, and in his last start he raised the volume one more level with a nine-spot of strikeouts. The next logical step is easy to determine yet hard to imagine.

Joe Ross WAS (vs. MIL) – Ross cruised through his first two months in the bigs, allowing three runs or less in each of his first seven starts while using his brother’s slider to strikeout a batter per inning. He didn’t allow a homer until his fifth career start, but that started a trend and now Ross has surrendered at least one home run in each of his last five turns. He has also been sent to the showers early in his last two starts, both against NL West rivals (the Dodgers and the Giants), with a total of nine runs allowed across 8.7 innings pitched with seven strikeouts and five walks. Perhaps the clock has struck midnight, maybe the league is getting the book on him, or perhaps he is just having a rough stretch (most likely), but the bloom has worn off of Ross’ rose.

Ian Kennedy SD (vs. STL) – Back in May, it looked like Kennedy was in for a forgettable season, with an ERA that stood at 7.15 after his final start of the month. Since then, however, Kennedy has quietly been a low-volatility arm who has kept the scoreboard relatively clean. His line since the calendar flipped to June: 14 starts with a 2.82 ERA, 76 strikeouts, and 23 walks in 83.0 innings. The biggest slight against him during that span is that he has given up 14 home runs, but that marked an improvement from the 12 bombs that he gave up in his first eight games, and homers have been the greatest weakness in Kennedy’s game since the start of his career.

Yordano Ventura KC (at BOS) – It has been somewhat of a lost season for Ventura, and there are times where he looks lost on the mound. He will put it all together for short spurts only to watch the game unravel, and though he is still throwing one of the hardest heaters in the game, Ventura has lost about 1.6 mph off of last year’s ridiculous velocity. Combine lesser pitch-speed with diminished command, and the young right-hander’s entire approach has been compromised. Today he faces the hottest bats in the majors, and one gets the feeling that we’ll see a lot of the Green Monster in tonight’s ballgame. So pull the pin, cover your eyes and ears, and hope that there are some fantasy points left standing.

Andrew Heaney LAA (vs. TOR) – Mr. Heaney, meet Mr. Regression, a role that will be played tonight by the Toronto Blue Jays. The left-hander has modest stuff but a very balanced delivery that supports plus pitch command, an advanced skill set that one rarely sees in such a young southpaw. His ceiling might be limited, but he could reach it very quickly; that said, what he has done so far this season is over his head, beyond the ceiling and into the attic. Heaney has a 2.43 ERA through his first ten starts at the MLB level in 2015, giving up more than two runs in just one of those ballgames. His K rate is unimpressive (17.5 percent), leaving little margin for error before he loses fantasy value. The peripherals support an ERA that’s a full run higher, a discrepancy that could be addressed by the bloodthirsty bats of the Blue Jays, a squad that is even more threatening when there is a lefty on the mound.

Erasmo Ramirez TB (at OAK)

Vidal Nuno SEA (vs. CHW)

Randall Delgado ARI (at CIN)

Yovani Gallardo TEX (at DET)

Anthony DeSclafani CIN (vs. ARI)

Marco Estrada TOR (at LAA)

Chris Tillman BAL (vs. MIN)

Kyle Gibson MIN (at BAL)

Justin Nicolino MIA (vs. PHI)

Aaron Harang PHI (at MIA)

Matt Barnes BOS (vs. KC)

Jon Niese NYM (at COL)