Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, September 5th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-09-07 23:06:50

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Moore	TBR	NYY	36.2	7.12	5.29	1.91		13.1%	10.2%	1.23	1.04
Eovaldi	NYY	TBR	348.2	4.28	3.95	1.38	50.0%	17.0%	5.9%	0.62	1.59
Wright	BAL	TOR	30.2	4.99	4.89	1.37		14.2%	8.2%	1.17	1.13
Price	TOR	BAL	437.2	2.92	2.96	1.08	52.4%	25.9%	4.2%	0.84	1.07
Garza	MIL	CIN	307.1	4.54	4.29	1.35	35.0%	17.3%	7.8%	1.02	1.29
Lamb	CIN	MIL	22.1	5.24	2.79	1.43		30.2%	5.2%	1.61	0.75
Ray	ARI	CHC	125.1	4.74	4.25	1.45	33.3%	19.4%	8.4%	0.79	1.02
Arrieta	CHC	ARI	339.2	2.31	2.87	0.96	50.0%	27.0%	6.4%	0.37	1.98
Morton	PIT	STL	264	3.92	3.74	1.28	50.0%	18.4%	7.9%	0.61	2.58
Garcia	STL	PIT	136.2	2.70	3.17	1.00	28.6%	19.4%	5.1%	0.66	2.74
Colon	NYM	MIA	363.1	4.24	3.79	1.24	42.1%	18.1%	3.3%	1.09	1.04
Hand	MIA	NYM	192.1	4.45	4.19	1.35	33.3%	15.1%	7.0%	0.66	1.64
Asher	PHI	BOS
Miley	BOS	PHI	361	4.44	3.91	1.40	33.3%	19.6%	8.3%	0.92	1.75
Miller	ATL	WAS	355	3.17	4.31	1.23	21.1%	18.6%	8.9%	0.81	1.18
Gonzalez	WAS	ATL	300.1	3.84	3.67	1.33	46.7%	22.8%	8.6%	0.51	1.57
Salazar	CLE	DET	261.1	3.68	3.20	1.21	12.5%	26.9%	7.1%	1.14	1.01
Simon	DET	CLE	343	4.15	4.46	1.31	63.2%	15.2%	7.6%	1.08	1.41
Santana	MIN	HOU	261	4.31	3.91	1.34	38.9%	20.3%	7.7%	0.93	1.21
McCullers	HOU	MIN	89.2	3.21	3.57	1.22		24.9%	8.6%	0.50	1.49
Quintana	CHW	KCR	370.2	3.52	3.54	1.28	50.0%	21.0%	5.7%	0.58	1.48
Duffy	KCR	CHW	263.1	3.21	4.60	1.24	57.1%	16.8%	8.8%	0.79	0.88
Peavy	SFG	COL	276.2	3.90	4.19	1.28	42.1%	18.2%	7.1%	1.04	0.92
Bettis	COL	SFG	111.1	5.74	4.20	1.58		17.0%	8.3%	1.13	1.73
Anderson	LAD	SDP	195.2	3.31	3.48	1.31	20.0%	16.0%	6.6%	0.69	3.35
Ross	SDP	LAD	360.2	3.02	3.30	1.28	66.7%	24.6%	9.7%	0.45	2.91
Hernandez	SEA	OAK	403	2.77	2.84	1.03	81.0%	25.4%	5.7%	0.76	2.12
Chavez	OAK	SEA	295	3.69	3.78	1.31	52.6%	21.1%	7.3%	1.04	1.20
Holland	TEX	LAA	59.1	1.97	3.53	1.01		19.5%	2.6%	0.76	1.01
Weaver	LAA	TEX	339	4.09	4.42	1.22	52.4%	16.6%	6.1%	1.22	0.72

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

The recent struggles of King Felix combine with a thin crop of top-tier starters to deplete the All-in portion of this evening’s program. On the bright side, there are a plethora of interesting arms to tackle in the Call section, as opposed to those days when the middle of the bell curve is saturated with benign options.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Danny Salazar CLE (at DET) – He may not have broken camp with the team out of Spring Training, but it didn’t take long for Salazar to establish himself as a force to be reckoned with, and with Corey Kluber temporarily out of commission (hamstring), Salazar become the de facto ace of the Cleveland staff. Salazar is currently on a brutal run of difficult opponents, pitching versus the Yankees, at Boston, at New York, and at Toronto over his last four turns, but he has more than held his own in these rough environments against high-octane opponents with a 2.77 ERA across 26.0 innings. He allowed two or fewer runs while pitching seven or more innings in three of those four starts. It doesn’t get much easier with tonight’s matchup in Detroit, but at least he catches the Tigers at a good time, as the club has just a .280 wOBA and 639 OPS over the last seven days, and Salazar is likely to come out the other side as a legitimate All-in candidate the next time that his name is called.

Felix Hernandez SEA (at OAK) – Any splice of the King’s recent performance will be tainted by his 10-run catastrophe against Boston two starts ago, but he has been off-kilter in the surrounding games as well. If isolating the other five of his last six starts, temporarily disposing of the Red Sox disaster, he still has a 4.98 ERA over that span with 41 hits allowed in 34.3 frames, though a K-to-walk ratio of 32-to-five in that span gives the peripheral impression that everything is fine. He gets a soft landing against Oakland tonight, though the A’s have given a bit of trouble this season, and in fact they were the first club to rack up double-digit hits against Felix (back on Independence Day), an occurrence that has taken place three more times in the nine games since for Hernandez.

Shelby Miller ATL (at WAS) – Miller has been steady for the Braves with a 3.38 ERA over the last dozen starts, after teasing us with a sub-2.00 ERA for the first few months of the season. On the plus side, he has stepped up the K rate during the 12-game stretch, with 77 punchouts in 74.7 frames, though his 75 hits and 29 walks allowed reveal the extent to which he has been vulnerable. The Nats are starting to come alive at the plate, with a .396 wOBA and 930 OPS over the last seven days, overcoming a season-long rift of disappointment. Washington has hit 13 homers over their last seven games while Miller has allowed just two bombs in his last six starts and 10 blasts all season, and the result of tonight’s contest could come down to the right-hander’s ability to keep the Nats in the yard.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Moore	0.378	6.55	0.412	7.36	0.264	0.786	0.370	5.38	0.335	84.75	13.1%
Eovaldi	0.340	4.38	0.297	4.19	0.243	0.687	0.328	3.40	0.28	97.19	17.0%
Wright	0.400	5.65	0.253	4.41	0.260	0.770	0.281	5.07	0.261	74.14	14.2%
Price	0.292	2.72	0.278	2.98	0.252	0.690	0.299	2.83	0.235	108.28	25.9%
Garza	0.331	4.41	0.314	4.64	0.249	0.704	0.292	4.20	0.257	92.96	17.3%
Lamb	0.429	7.36	0.365	4.82	0.227	0.660	0.404	3.68	0.3	101.50	30.2%
Ray	0.335	3.86	0.353	5.08	0.237	0.685	0.330	3.81	0.274	85.54	19.4%
Arrieta	0.232	1.86	0.251	2.70	0.266	0.736	0.265	2.39	0.197	100.58	27.0%
Morton	0.327	4.51	0.297	3.38	0.264	0.733	0.297	3.79	0.249	93.84	18.4%
Garcia	0.323	4.11	0.244	2.29	0.260	0.713	0.256	3.29	0.218	91.81	19.4%
Colon	0.312	4.00	0.322	4.48	0.249	0.668	0.309	3.69	0.272	91.33	18.1%
Hand	0.257	3.60	0.346	4.83	0.242	0.704	0.304	3.76	0.268	47.69	15.1%
Asher	0.274	0.00	0.533	12.00	0.264	0.734
Miley	0.301	4.75	0.336	4.34	0.262	0.710	0.315	3.92	0.265	97.78	19.6%
Miller	0.310	3.60	0.279	2.79	0.250	0.722	0.265	3.92	0.228	93.31	18.6%
Gonzalez	0.286	3.73	0.313	3.87	0.237	0.657	0.321	3.11	0.25	95.94	22.8%
Salazar	0.305	3.64	0.304	3.72	0.268	0.740	0.303	3.53	0.238	98.84	26.9%
Simon	0.341	4.46	0.300	3.80	0.253	0.721	0.276	4.50	0.252	95.68	15.2%
Santana	0.344	4.76	0.308	3.82	0.242	0.726	0.313	3.82	0.262	95.48	20.3%
McCullers	0.256	3.19	0.327	3.24	0.244	0.698	0.301	3.00	0.228	93.50	24.9%
Quintana	0.293	4.34	0.314	3.25	0.268	0.712	0.330	3.02	0.267	104.59	21.0%
Duffy	0.225	1.93	0.320	3.60	0.242	0.636	0.265	4.13	0.233	84.12	16.8%
Peavy	0.332	4.50	0.317	3.34	0.274	0.781	0.290	4.13	0.254	98.60	18.2%
Bettis	0.328	5.13	0.403	6.45	0.266	0.735	0.332	4.44	0.291	52.94	17.0%
Anderson	0.304	3.79	0.310	3.12	0.244	0.671	0.308	3.66	0.269	87.59	16.0%
Ross	0.306	3.19	0.275	2.87	0.248	0.739	0.309	3.08	0.233	99.39	24.6%
Hernandez	0.267	2.52	0.269	3.08	0.253	0.705	0.275	2.99	0.217	99.42	25.4%
Chavez	0.319	3.57	0.299	3.84	0.239	0.714	0.304	3.84	0.255	80.35	21.1%
Holland	0.277	2.19	0.281	1.91	0.234	0.665	0.283	3.12	0.242	88.40	19.5%
Weaver	0.331	4.24	0.291	3.88	0.262	0.739	0.27	4.40	0.247	97.13	16.6%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Tyson Ross SD (vs. LAD) – Ross has tamed the walks slightly over the last month, as the MLB-leader in free passes has given away a relatively light 13 walks over his last six starts covering 37.3 innings, consistently walking a couple of batters in each ballgame yet avoiding the walk-a-thon performances (he has given up four or more walks in seven of his 28 starts). Despite the plethora of missed targets (mostly due to sliders that get too dirty), Ross has been a trustworthy source of run prevention all season, as he has yet to give up more than four runs in any start this year, and his strikeout rate of better than a K per inning helps to raise the roof of his fantasy potential.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. ATL) – Gonzalez has been streaky this season, and though he looked to be turning things around a month ago whilst he was in the midst of a good eight-start run, he lost it just as quickly, and over his last four starts Gio has an 8.35 ERA while allowing 33 baserunners in 18.3 innings. He gets the Quad-A Braves for tonight’s contest, an opponent that would seemingly offer the opportunity for Gonzalez to get back on track, but his recent struggles have come against the modest offenses of the Brewers, Padres, Cardinals, and Giants; it’s not exactly a ringing endorsement for his odds of a quality start in tonight’s game, something that he barely accomplished in his last turn with a baseline QS that was his first in four games.

Lance McCullers HOU (vs. MIN) – McCullers endured a worst-case scenario against the Rangers at the beginning of the month, getting just one out in his only time through the Ranger order as they plated six runs before the first frame was finished. The right-hander was then given some time to gather the broken pieces of his stat-line while new recruits such as Scott Kazmir and Mike Fiers took over duties in the Houston rotation. He came back with an excellent start on August 23 against the Dodgers, nothing eight strikeouts and zero walks in seven innings of two-run ball, but the inconsistency cropped up in the next turn with four walks in a baseline QS against these Twins. He could have a much better outing against Minny this time around, but his pitch command will be a major factor in determining his success.

Jose Quintana CHW (at KC) – When all is said and done, Quintana’s 2015 season will probably look a lot like the last few campaigns, with a low walk rate paired with enough strikeouts to have value (currently at 20.6 percent of batters faced) and an ERA in the mid-three’s. He has given up more hits this year than in his typical campaign, with 190 safeties in 170.3 innings of work, but his homer rate has stayed low, and those two elements are likely to stay on their respected paths against a high-contact Royals team that relies on doubles, triples, and steals more than the longball to score runs.

Alex Wood LAD (at SD) – Wood’s gravity-defying delivery has been off-set by an underlying ability to command the baseball for his career to date, as the low walk rates are not merely a mirage but rather indicative of his ability to hit targets, but that skill did not make the trip when Wood was traded to Los Angeles. He has walked 15 batters in 35.0 innings across six starts with the Dodgers, and though he hasn’t completely lost it in any of his outings, the lack of control has resulted in a steady stream of run-scoring opportunities for his opponents. That said, Wood has been exactly what the Dodgers ordered, as his ability to generate something close to a quality start (within one out of 6.0 innings in five of six turns) has been extremely valuable for a club that was previously relying on pitchers with storied injury histories enduring unprecedented workloads.

Derek Holland TEX (at LAA) – Getting Holland back into the fray was a huge addition for a Rangers team that is still in contention for a playoff spot, and he officially endeared himself to the Texas faithful with his last start, an 11-K shutout of the powerful Orioles with just three baserunners surrendered over the course of the game. He gave up four runs against the Blue Jays in his previous turn, but it’s hard to fault any pitcher for giving up runs to Toronto these days, and the Angels should make for an easier matchup despite the heightened playoff indications, as the Halos have a particularly tough time with opposing southpaws (a .291 wOBA and 665 OPS on the season).

Jered Weaver LAA (vs. TEX) – Weaver has been an absolute mess in his last two turns, giving up a combined 14 runs in 11.7 innings against the Indians and Tigers, as his unorthodox motion and deceiving release point were unable to mask his mid-80’s velocity. Of course, after 10 years of pitching for the same ballclub, Weaver’s AL West opponents are not expected to be deterred by a pitching style that has defined him throughout his career, even if it is the Rangers’ first time facing Weaver this season. Weaver has had strong home-road splits throughout his career, as the flyball pitcher is helped by the spacious outfield of Anaheim as well as the camouflage offered by Pride Rock when Weaver is delivering baseballs, and 2015 has been no exception: he has a 3.02 ERA at home this year but a 6.24 ERA on road.

Jesse Chavez OAK (vs. SEA)

Bartolo Colon NYM (at MIA)

Danny Duffy KC (vs. CHW)

Brad Hand MIA (vs. NYM)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Jake Peavy SF (at COL)

Ervin Santana MIN (at HOU)

Chad Bettis COL (vs. SF)

Starting Pitcher Salaries

NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window.