Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Thursday, August 18th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-08-19 02:03:08

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Buchholz	BOS	DET	208.2	4.36	4.25	1.30	33.3%	19.0%	7.3%	0.99	1.23
Boyd	DET	BOS	120	5.77	4.59	1.40		18.6%	8.0%	2.02	0.75
Davies	MIL	CHC	157	3.78	4.21	1.21		18.6%	7.0%	0.92	1.62
Arrieta	CHC	MIL	377	2.08	3.13	0.93	50.0%	26.3%	6.8%	0.45	2.21
Musgrove	HOU	BAL	18.1	1.47	2.58	0.76		31.3%	3.0%	0.49	0.94
Gausman	BAL	HOU	232.2	4.14	3.77	1.28	37.5%	22.8%	6.5%	1.47	1.15
Stripling	LAD	PHI	66.1	4.07	4.28	1.22		17.4%	7.6%	0.68	1.91
Eickhoff	PHI	LAD	194.2	3.51	3.97	1.18		21.0%	5.7%	1.11	1.11
Salazar	CLE	CWS	302.1	3.42	3.56	1.18	12.5%	26.4%	8.4%	1.07	1.24
Fernandez	MIA	CIN	202.1	2.85	2.67	1.11	75.0%	33.8%	6.7%	0.62	1.35
Straily	CIN	MIA	156	3.92	4.70	1.17	14.3%	19.4%	9.2%	1.21	0.74
Lopez	WAS	ATL	15.2	5.74	4.75	1.72		20.3%	10.8%	1.15	0.95
Whalen	ATL	WAS	16	7.31	3.81	1.25		24.3%	7.1%	2.25	1.06
Duffey	MIN	KCR	166.2	4.81	3.94	1.40		19.9%	6.3%	1.24	1.65
Gee	KCR	MIN	126.1	5.13	4.44	1.60	50.0%	16.6%	7.0%	1.64	1.27
Iwakuma	SEA	LAA	279.2	3.70	3.93	1.18	60.0%	19.6%	4.7%	1.26	1.23
Shoemaker	LAA	SEA	274	4.34	3.92	1.27	44.4%	20.9%	5.4%	1.28	0.96
Bradley	ARI	SDP	131	5.15	4.76	1.55		19.6%	11.9%	1.17	1.60
Clemens	SDP	ARI	32.1	4.73	5.30	1.48		16.6%	11.7%	2.78	0.98
Degrom	NYM	SFG	324.1	2.44	3.20	1.01	50.0%	26.1%	5.2%	0.75	1.36
Bumgarner	SFG	NYM	389	2.57	3.16	1.00	47.6%	27.3%	5.3%	0.90	1.05

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. NYM) – Bummer recovered quickly from the odd eight-run hiccup that he endured at the hands of the Phillies two starts ago. Since then, he has faced the upper-third offenses of the Nationals and Orioles and shut them down. He spun eight frames against the Nats with only two hits allowed, one of which was a solo homer that accounted for all of the scoring in the ballgame, as a lack of run support stuck him with the L in a 1-0 ballgame. His last turn involved 7.0 scoreless innings against the O’s, with just three hits and three walks allowed but eight strikeouts in the bank.All told, he had one run, five hits and five walks allowed allowed over 15.0 innings, including 15 punchouts. His leftyness minimizes the impact of the one hitter that the Mets have left, as Jay Bruce has an OPS split that loses 118 points when he has the platoon disadvantage.

Jose Fernandez MIA (at CIN) – There are rarely two pitchers worthy of All-In status on the same slate, particularly at a time of the year when many of the early-season candidates have since fallen by the wayside (Clayton Kershaw, Matt Harvey, David Price, etc), but Bummer and Fern are both on the very short list for best pitcher still standing, and neither is facing an intimidating opponent. Fernandez has merely a 3.93 ERA on the road this season, but I don’t consider his home/road discrepancy to be too much of a concern given that his ridiculous strikeout rate (a career-high 35.7 percent) results in fewer balls in play to be influenced by the ballpark’s dimensions. He has still struck out 35.9 percent of hitters that he has faced away from Marlins Park this season. Fern only struck out six Giants in his last turn, a solid total for most any other pitcher on the planet but for him it was his lowest output in the K category since he struck out six Pirates back in May. The right-hander actually started and finished July with rough outings of five or more earned runs allowed, but Fern has started August with a quality start against the Cubs and just one run allowed over six frames to the Giants.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Jake Arrieta CHC (vs. MIL) – It doesn’t get much better for a pitcher’s expected fantasy score than to be facing the Brewers, a team that hands out season-high strikeout performances like candy on halloween. The first half of the season, this would have been a slam dunk for an All-In situation, but Arrieta’s recent fall from atop the mountain of pitching dominance combined with the presence of Fern and Bum knock him off the perch despite his ideal context. Arrieta has already begun to right the ship, with an ERA of 1.31 and just 16 baserunners allowed over 20.2 innings pitched, but his 14:6 ratios of strikeouts to walks underscores part of the issue that is keeping him behind the velvet rope. Arrieta has only struck out more than six hitters once in his last 10 starts, and that was an eight-count of Mets over 7.0 frames. For a pitcher who earlier this season had a seven-game stretch that included three separate games of 11 or more strikeouts, the lack of whiffs have been somewhat disappointing, but even more disappointing has been a walk rate that has skyrocketed, propelling him to the wrong side of the bell curve in that category.

Jacob DeGrom NYM (at SF) – He may not have the elite upside in strikeouts of a Fernandez or Bumgarner, but deGrom specializes in run prevention while still maintaining a K-per-inning rate. Over his last four starts, the right-hander has a microscopic ERA of 0.65 with 19 hits allowed and a 26:5 K:BB over 27.2 innings, falling one out shy of pitching exactly 7.0 innings in all four games. He earned just a single win for his efforts. DeGrom had a five-run, 10-hit blowup five starts ago, but prior to that game he had another four-start streak that included a 0.93 ERA and 27:5 K:BB in 29 frames. Unless the he has an allergy to every fifth start, deGrom should be a safe play for a strong point total along with a dose of upside.

Joe Musgrove HOU (at BAL) – Musgrove continues to prove that his league-average fastball velocity and late-breaking slider can silence even the loudest lineups. His greatest strength is of course pitch command, and the hit-or-miss Orioles will prove to be a good test as to whether Musgrove’s exceptional pitch command can give him enough of an advantage in the chess match with hitters to invoke weak contact rather than the hard-hit baseballs that the folks at Camden Yards have come accustomed to seeing. .Musgrove is facing a stiff opponent, not that it has stopped him so far, with a 1.47 ERA in three starts, two against the Blue Jays and one against the Rangers. The command is legit, the stuff is legit and Musgrove is criminally underpriced at $7000 on DraftKings.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Buchholz	0.318	4.71	0.309	4.02	0.268	0.746	0.299	4.00	0.257	0.00	19.0%
Boyd	0.398	7.85	0.348	5.12	0.276	0.776	0.287	5.59	0.27	0.00	18.6%
Davies	0.312	2.84	0.287	4.61	0.249	0.741	0.281	3.87	0.244	0.01	18.6%
Arrieta	0.223	1.69	0.243	2.43	0.252	0.713	0.244	2.63	0.185	0.00	26.3%
Musgrove			0.159	1.54	0.261	0.771	0.256	1.89	0.185	0.10	31.3%
Gausman	0.286	2.97	0.363	5.35	0.249	0.741	0.300	4.23	0.256	0.00	22.8%
Stripling	0.240	1.20	0.328	6.44	0.243	0.687	0.274	3.67	0.236	0.01	17.4%
Eickhoff	0.347	4.41	0.265	2.65	0.250	0.740	0.286	3.82	0.245	0.01	21.0%
Rodon	0.241	2.76	0.357	4.44	0.270	0.746	0.326	4.06	0.262	0.01	22.7%
Salazar	0.296	3.83	0.288	3.06	0.251	0.703	0.281	3.63	0.222	0.01	26.4%
Fernandez	0.318	3.16	0.223	2.58	0.249	0.709	0.335	2.22	0.225	0.01	33.8%
Straily	0.312	4.74	0.283	3.15	0.263	0.706	0.238	4.58	0.215	0.01	19.4%
Lopez	0.282	5.56			0.253	0.683	0.347	4.42	0.288	0.00	20.3%
Whalen					0.249	0.726	0.262	5.58	0.238	0.00	24.3%
Duffey	0.309	3.25	0.375	6.35	0.264	0.719	0.329	4.10	0.282	0.00	19.9%
Gee	0.397	5.79	0.337	4.52	0.248	0.717	0.339	5.07	0.307	0.00	16.6%
Iwakuma	0.315	3.55	0.301	3.84	0.255	0.718	0.289	3.97	0.255	0.00	19.6%
Shoemaker	0.306	4.51	0.340	4.13	0.249	0.737	0.307	4.02	0.263	0.00	20.9%
Bradley	0.373	4.57	0.307	5.66	0.238	0.684	0.304	4.77	0.259	0.00	19.6%
Clemens	0.296	1.80	0.434	7.27	0.261	0.732	0.228	7.44	0.246	0.02	16.6%
Degrom	0.274	2.69	0.238	2.18	0.262	0.734	0.276	2.83	0.216	0.01	26.1%
Bumgarner	0.230	2.39	0.270	2.60	0.244	0.725	0.271	2.99	0.212	0.00	27.3%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Carlos Rodon CHW (at CLE) – Rodon spent most of last season pitching away from batters, staying out of the strike zone to drive a crazy-high walk rate. Thjis year, he’s brought the ball into the strike much more often, drastically lowering his walk rate, but major league batters have found his stuff to be no problem to handle. The southpaw has given up 125 hits in 110.1 innings, including 17 homers allowed this season. Oddly, he has a tendency toward two-homer games, with more of those on his resume (six) this season than he does single-homer starts (five). He’s coming off of a strong six-inning, one-run start against the Marlins, his second consecutive turn with just one earnie allowed. He faced Cleveland back in mid-June, giving up two runs on eight hits with eight strikeouts over 6.1 innings. Rodon carries a very modest price on DK ($6300) and he went 122 pitches in his last start, so the team might choose to let their foot off the gas in this turn of the rotation.

Kevin Gausman BAL (vs. HOU) – Gausman tied a season high with nine strikeouts against the Giants in his last start, and the free-swinging Astros will give him the opportunity to best that mark and hit double-digits in the K category. He also gave up six walks in his last game, an unacceptable frequency of free passes in any start, but the fact that Gausman lasted just 4.0 innings and faced just 20 batters makes matters even worse. The right-hander has given up exactly two runs in each of his last three starts, and though the ratios of hits to walks has been all over the place during this time, he has been consistent in giving up exactly eight hits-plus-walks in each of his last three starts.

Danny Salazar CLE (vs. CHW) – Salazar has been off-kilter since the July, only tossing enough innings for a quality start once in five turns, giving up six earned runs twice in that span and labored through a 7.88 ERA with 35 hits – including seven home runs – allowed in 24 innings before hitting the disabled list for elbow inflammation. The nature of the injury calls into question whether Salazar will have velocity let alone command, and there is a very good chance that he will be on a limited pitch count against the White Sox.

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at LAA) – Iwakuma had a mediocre game against the A’s in his last start, giving up three runs and nine hits with just two strikeouts over 5.1 innings, but he performed better against much tougher lineups in the previous two turns.Facing the Red Sox and then the Tigers, he pitched a combined 14.1 innings of scoreless baseball with 15 strikeouts against one walk and ten hits allowed. The 8-K total has been his absolute ceiling this season, but more worrisome is that his K-count approaches floor. The right-hander has struck out four or fewer batters in 10 of his 24 starts this season and he’s facing the toughest lineup in baseball to strike out; assuming a low K count, Iwakuma’s upside in tonight’s game is severely limited.

Jerad Eickhoff PHI (vs. LAD)

Matt Shoemaker LAA (vs. SEA)

Reynaldo Lopez WAS (at ATL)

Archie Bradley ARI (at SD)

Dan Straily CIN (vs. MIA)

Ross Stripling LAD (at PHI)

Zach Davies MIL (at CHC)

Paul Clemens SD (vs. ARI)