Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Thursday, May 26th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin | ARI | PIT | 141.1 | 3.76 | 3.76 | 1.29 | 19.7% | 5.7% | 1.15 | 1.66 | |
| Cole | PIT | ARI | 256.1 | 2.63 | 3.40 | 1.12 | 28.6% | 23.4% | 5.5% | 0.49 | 1.48 |
| Fernandez | MIA | TBR | 118.1 | 2.97 | 2.79 | 1.18 | 75.0% | 32.6% | 7.9% | 0.53 | 1.29 |
| Smyly | TBR | MIA | 122.2 | 3.30 | 3.24 | 1.11 | 50.0% | 28.2% | 6.8% | 1.47 | 0.71 |
| Happ | TOR | NYY | 229.2 | 3.57 | 4.00 | 1.25 | 30.8% | 19.8% | 6.5% | 0.86 | 1.22 |
| Sabathia | NYY | TOR | 201.2 | 4.51 | 4.13 | 1.42 | 25.0% | 19.0% | 7.3% | 1.29 | 1.40 |
| Leake | STL | WAS | 247.1 | 3.78 | 4.19 | 1.16 | 45.0% | 15.1% | 6.0% | 1.06 | 1.94 |
| Ross | WAS | STL | 123.1 | 3.28 | 3.86 | 1.16 | 20.8% | 7.1% | 0.73 | 1.46 | |
| Gray | COL | BOS | 72.2 | 6.07 | 3.49 | 1.51 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 0.74 | 1.61 | |
| Buchholz | BOS | COL | 165 | 4.09 | 3.94 | 1.29 | 33.3% | 20.4% | 6.8% | 0.82 | 1.28 |
| Peralta | MIL | ATL | 155 | 5.40 | 4.78 | 1.65 | 47.4% | 13.0% | 8.2% | 1.28 | 1.79 |
| Wisler | ATL | MIL | 164.1 | 4.11 | 4.80 | 1.30 | 15.9% | 7.6% | 1.15 | 0.77 | |
| Gausman | BAL | HOU | 149 | 3.87 | 3.72 | 1.20 | 37.5% | 21.5% | 6.0% | 1.21 | 1.19 |
| McCullers | HOU | BAL | 136.1 | 3.43 | 3.62 | 1.22 | 24.7% | 8.6% | 0.66 | 1.51 | |
| Gonzalez | CWS | KCR | 166.1 | 4.87 | 4.52 | 1.42 | 40.0% | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.46 | 1.12 |
| Duffy | KCR | CWS | 162 | 3.78 | 4.36 | 1.35 | 57.1% | 19.0% | 8.7% | 0.89 | 1.04 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Jose Fernandez MIA (at TB) – For the first seven weeks of the season, I have been simultaneously gushing about Fern’s upside while cautioning that his inefficient pitch counts could limit his innings. Well, in his last three starts Fernandez has addressed the latter while flashing the former: a 0.90 ERA, 31 strikeouts, eight walks and 12 hits allowed across 20.0 innings, or 6.7 innings per game while averaging double-digit strikeouts. The last two of those games came against the Washington Nationals, a team with an above-average offense led by the best player in the league, but Fern is not one to be intimidated by higher stakes. The Rays have an average offense overall but one that veers heavily toward facing left-handed pitchers, such that their team OPS is more than 100 points lower when a right-hander is on the mound.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Gerrit Cole PIT (vs. ARI) – His last start had one of the weirdest stat-liens that we’ll see this season, particularly from a top-shelf pitcher: 7.0 innings, 10 hits and one walk yet only one run allowed, with a cherry topping on the sundae of zero strikeouts. The K-less outing immediately brought his K rate down from his career-norm (about a K per inning) to the Sonny Gray / Adam Wainwright level of 7.3 K/9. It was a reminder that, though stats carry more weight the deeper we go into the season, it’s still early enough to completely mar a pitcher’s ratios with just one start. It will take awhile for Cole to erase that outing from his K rate unless he tosses an outlier on the other side of the ledger, but the fact that he hasn’t cracked more than seven strikeouts in a single game this season makes that a longshot.
Kevin Gausman BAL (at HOU) – The hard-throwing right-hander has maintained top-end velocity at the highest level for the last four years, and once again his four-seamer is buzzing above 96 mph on average. The fastball is typically hit hardest among the pitches in a player’s arsenal, as secondaries carry the strikeout upside of being used late in the count, but Gausman’s fastball has been the toughest for batters to square this season, with just a ,200 batting average and .256 slugging percentage in at-bats that finished on the heat. The next home run hit off his fastball will be the first of the season. This point is particularly crucial for Gausman, who was very hittable early in his career despite the excellent velo, with batters being able to turn on inside heat like they knew it was coming, but this season opponents have been able to do little with the pitch. His modest K rate will receive a boost by facing the Astros, but Houston has a make-or-break offense that can score runs in bunches, upping the risk in today’s outing for Gausman.
Drew Smyly TB (vs. MIA) – Over the last two seasons, Smyly has a combined 122.2 innings with a 3.30 ERA and 10.3 K/9. He has only given up 2.5 BB/9 over that span, but the biggest flaw in his game is a penchant for coughing up homers, with 20 bombs surrendered in 21 starts (1.5 HR/9). It makes sense, as a pitcher who goes out of his way to manipulate a high release point and gives up flyballs by the truckload. His high-strikeout exploits of early April are fading quickly in the rearview mirror, and Smyly hasn’t struck out more than six batters in a ballgame since the calendar flipped; the lefty loses his entire margin for error if the strikeouts are kept at bay. Raise with caution.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin | 0.266 | 1.93 | 0.342 | 4.31 | 0.256 | 0.711 | 0.309 | 3.89 | 0.266 | 0.01 | 19.7% |
| Cole | 0.272 | 2.23 | 0.283 | 3.02 | 0.266 | 0.743 | 0.305 | 2.75 | 0.238 | 0.01 | 23.4% |
| Fernandez | 0.346 | 3.73 | 0.221 | 2.39 | 0.244 | 0.706 | 0.344 | 2.29 | 0.232 | 0.02 | 32.6% |
| Smyly | 0.260 | 1.88 | 0.304 | 3.73 | 0.274 | 0.734 | 0.272 | 3.82 | 0.221 | 0.01 | 28.2% |
| Happ | 0.289 | 2.32 | 0.310 | 3.95 | 0.252 | 0.726 | 0.304 | 3.60 | 0.256 | 0.00 | 19.8% |
| Sabathia | 0.251 | 4.07 | 0.358 | 4.62 | 0.270 | 0.792 | 0.317 | 4.42 | 0.276 | 0.01 | 19.0% |
| Leake | 0.308 | 4.24 | 0.284 | 3.28 | 0.245 | 0.711 | 0.259 | 4.24 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 15.1% |
| Ross | 0.344 | 3.40 | 0.225 | 3.20 | 0.266 | 0.760 | 0.274 | 3.42 | 0.228 | 0.01 | 20.8% |
| Gray | 0.332 | 4.79 | 0.359 | 7.30 | 0.271 | 0.762 | 0.381 | 3.16 | 0.292 | 0.00 | 24.5% |
| Buchholz | 0.308 | 3.96 | 0.313 | 4.23 | 0.270 | 0.772 | 0.312 | 3.56 | 0.259 | 0.01 | 20.4% |
| Peralta | 0.381 | 5.17 | 0.385 | 5.63 | 0.255 | 0.677 | 0.340 | 5.03 | 0.314 | 0.00 | 13.0% |
| Wisler | 0.367 | 4.76 | 0.276 | 3.55 | 0.255 | 0.713 | 0.276 | 4.52 | 0.252 | 0.01 | 15.9% |
| Gausman | 0.258 | 2.61 | 0.360 | 5.18 | 0.246 | 0.745 | 0.286 | 3.90 | 0.245 | 0.01 | 21.5% |
| McCullers | 0.271 | 3.28 | 0.316 | 3.59 | 0.258 | 0.761 | 0.298 | 3.22 | 0.23 | 0.01 | 24.7% |
| Gonzalez | 0.353 | 4.80 | 0.337 | 4.94 | 0.264 | 0.728 | 0.300 | 4.98 | 0.27 | 0.01 | 17.7% |
| Duffy | 0.249 | 1.95 | 0.339 | 4.32 | 0.245 | 0.665 | 0.302 | 4.09 | 0.256 | 0.00 | 19.0% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Joe Ross WAS (vs. STL) – This ranking is a nod to both the strength of the Cardinals offense and the recent struggles of Ross. To be fair, the one time that Ross faced St. Louis this season he held them to one run over 6.0 innings, though that came at the end of a shutdown month that included a 0.79 ERA over 22.2 innings of work. He quieted the Cubs in his next turn, but in the three starts since Ross has been giving up copious amounts of baserunners (23 hits and 6 walks over 17.1 IP) and has allowed 13 runs across that stretch, though just 10 of those runs were earned. Ross has never been a high-strikeout guy and the Cardinals are likely to have learned something from their meeting with Ross at the end of April, opening up a couple of lanes where things could go wrong for Ross and the Nats.
J.A. Happ TOR (at NYY) – Those who were holding their breath, waiting for the other shoe to drop on Happ’s performance this season, can safely exhale. Happ struck out just 30 batters through his first 48.1 innings (seven starts) yet carried a shiny 2.05 ERA, that is until the southpaw-slugging Rays came to town and put eight runs on the scoreboard while Happ could register just six outs, and that dud brought Happ’s run prevention more in line with his peripherals. The lefty has been a quality-start machine this season, as aside from the eight-run disaster against Tampa Bay, Happ has earned the QS in the other eight of his nine starts this season. He has to be stingy with the runs in order to put up a decent total of fantasy points, because the strikeouts are unlikely to be much of a factor.
Lance McCullers HOU (vs. BAL) – His first start was long-awaited, but McCullers was thrust immediately into the fire by having his first start come against the Red Sox. The game went predictably poor for McCullers, with 10 baserunners and five runs allowed without his escaping the fifth inning, but there were signs of life in his second start of the season, including two runs allowed and seven strikeouts against the Rangers. Velocity is always a concern for pitchers with shoulder injuries, so the radar gun reading of McCullers will be under a microscope in the early-going, so it’s worth noting that his average fastball through two starts is three-quarters of a tick slower than the average heater of last season. It’s not a concern, at least not yet, and McCullers might take some time to regain pitch-speed. In the world of DFS, however, there is no time to wait, and given his difficult opponent, McCullers is probably best left on the shelf until further notice.
Patrick Corbin ARI (at PIT) – The lefty had a rocky first month, including four or more runs allowed in three of his first five starts and seven home runs allowed over that stretch. He has calmed things down a bit in May, with a 2.88 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 25.0 innings, with 23 hits and seven walks allowed. He hasn’t cracked more than seven Ks in a game yet this season, so the upside is limited, but Corbin has been a reliable source of innings this season, going 5.1 or more frames in every start and clearing 6.0 innings in seven of nine turns.
Matt Wisler ATL (vs. MIL)
Danny Duffy KC (vs. CHW)
Jon Gray COL (at BOS)
CC Sabathia NYY (vs. TOR) – A left-handed pitcher facing Toronto is an easy stack opportunity, as all of the Blue Jays big bats are particularly adept at destroying southpaws, but CC has been an exception. BvP stats certainly have their limitations, but for what it’s worth, consider the following player histories against Sabathia: Edwin Encarnacion, 47 PA of .250/.298/.318; Jose Bautista, 36 PA of .097/.222/.194 with one home run; Josh Donaldson, 19 PA of .263/.263/.316. Granted, one of the fatal flaws of BvP is that so much time is spread between the head-to-head matchups, and for an aging pitcher like CC, he is probably a less effective pitcher now than when he was mowing down these hitters, but there might just be a zig opportunity here for large tournaments, rolling the dice to see if history repeats itself, at least in this case.
Mike Leake STL (vs. WAS)
Wily Peralta MIL (at ATL) – His career 6.3 K/9 is unacceptable in the modern age. The below-average walk rate of 3.2 BB/9 and the vulnerability to the longball (1.0 HR/9) are indicators of his lack of pitch command, and this season things have gotten out of hand. Peralta currently sports a 6.99 ERA, a 31:20 K:BB ratio in 46.0 innings over nine starts and has allowed 69 hits, eight of which have left the yard. Just about all of his ratios represent career-worst marks. He doesn’t have velocity to blame, at least in the traditional sense, as Peralta still maintains 95-mph heat, and if anything he is throwing his secondaries too hard – both his changeup and slider are being thrown an average of more than 2-mph harder this season, narrowing the velo gap off of his fastball and therefore narrowing the trigger-timing for opposing hitters. Translation: hard-hit baseballs. Does it really matter that he’s facing the worst offense in baseball?
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Miguel Gonzalez CHW (at KC)
Clay Buchholz BOS (vs. COL)
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