Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Thursday, September 29th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-09-30 03:22:11

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Ray	ARI	WAS	297.1	4.24	3.72	1.40	33.3%	25.7%	8.9%	0.94	1.36
Ross	WAS	ARI	177.2	3.55	3.90	1.22		21.1%	6.5%	0.81	1.43
Merritt	CLE	DET
Norris	DET	CLE	122.2	3.67	4.21	1.32		20.5%	7.4%	1.32	0.95
Owens	BOS	NYY	80.1	5.27	5.12	1.53		18.3%	11.8%	1.34	0.68
Sabathia	NYY	BOS	339.2	4.37	4.25	1.38	25.0%	19.1%	7.7%	1.30	1.44
Zastryzny	CHC	PIT	12.1	1.46	2.97	1.05		25.5%	5.9%	0.00	1.73
Nova	PIT	CHC	250.2	4.63	4.10	1.32	25.0%	17.2%	5.7%	1.29	1.75
Stroman	TOR	BAL	224	4.02	3.54	1.24	66.7%	19.6%	6.3%	0.92	3.04
Hellickson	PHI	ATL	331.2	4.15	4.17	1.24		19.4%	6.3%	1.25	1.17
Collmenter	ATL	PHI	155.1	3.88	4.63	1.28	29.4%	14.3%	6.2%	1.45	0.95
Straily	CIN	STL	202	3.88	4.69	1.20	14.3%	20.1%	9.4%	1.38	0.70
Reyes	STL	CIN	40	1.58	3.98	1.18		28.1%	12.8%	0.23	0.98
Gibson	MIN	KCR	335.2	4.34	4.42	1.40	52.6%	16.7%	8.2%	1.02	1.87
Duffy	KCR	MIN	310	3.72	3.97	1.24	57.1%	22.2%	7.2%	1.19	0.93
Archer	TBR	CWS	406.2	3.61	3.27	1.19	55.0%	28.4%	7.8%	1.06	1.37
Quintana	CWS	TBR	408.1	3.28	3.84	1.22	50.0%	20.9%	5.5%	0.82	1.28
Urias	LAD	SDP	74	3.53	3.91	1.47		24.4%	9.0%	0.61	1.47
Friedrich	SDP	LAD	182	4.85	4.62	1.51		17.5%	9.4%	0.89	1.33
Graveman	OAK	SEA	296	4.14	4.55	1.35		14.2%	6.7%	1.13	1.84
Miranda	SEA	OAK	52.2	4.10	4.93	1.16		17.9%	8.5%	1.88	0.68
Gray	COL	SFG	203.1	4.74	3.69	1.31		25.5%	8.1%	0.97	1.35
Cueto	SFG	COL	424.2	3.12	3.74	1.11	76.2%	21.1%	5.2%	0.76	1.43

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Clearing the bar for the All-In level is extremely difficult this time of season. Between the fatigue of a long season, playoff teams taking it easy on their arms with shorter outings and the natural deterioration of the pitcher pool due to injury, there are few options on which to hang our hats. There isn’t a pitcher who clears that threshold on today’s slate, but there are several options just one run below on the value ladder.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Chris Archer TB (at CHW) – Archer had a horrific start to the regular season, and his empty-hitting teammates have helped contribute to an ugly 8-19 record this season. He will try to avoid loss number 20 tonight against the White Sox, a fact that will surely grab headlines, but we shouldn’t miss the fact that Archer has been very effective over the past month. He has posted five consecutive quality starts and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in an outing since August 12. Over that stretch, Archer has a 51:10 K:BB over 45.0 innings, sporting a 2.80 ERA over the seven games with just 36 hits allowed – though six of them have left the yard.

Johnny Cueto SF (vs. COL) – The Giants’ right-hander has been quietly efficient over the past month, posting a miniscule 1.59 ERA and a K:BB of 24:6 over four starts and 28.1 innings pitched despite facing some robust offenses such as those of the Cubs and Cardinals. He walked an uncharacteristically high total of four batters in his final start of August, but the free passes have not been a problem for Cueto, no has the longball – he has given up just one home run across the past five games. He hasn’t faced the Rockies since July 6, but in that game Cueto allowed just one run in a complete game victory, striking out eight Rockies while giving up just five hits and one walk. The gem took his record to 13-1 at the time, and though Cueto is just 4-4 since that time, he has earned the benefit of the doubt when trying to prognosticate whether he will be granted with the magic point-generating W in today’s game.

Jose Quintana CHW (vs. TB) – Quintana has posted an excellent season but he is ending the 2016 campaign on a bit of a sour note. His ERA has risen 0.44 runs this month thanks to his allowing four or more earned runs in three of his five September starts, including six-plus tallies in two of those games. He allowed just 16 homers over his first 26 starts, but Quintana has coughed up five homers in five games this month. He did keep the ball in the park in his last start, a one-run gem over 6.0 frames against the Indians, though his meager count of two strikeouts effectively limited his fantasy impact, as Quintana scored just 14.10 points on DraftKings.

Alex Reyes STL (vs. CIN) – Reyes had a shaky trek through Triple-A and his quick success at the highest level was potentially attributable to his shift to the bullpen, the small sample or the hard-throwing right-hander’s novelty to a league that had yet to face him, but he has answered the critics by continuing his success whether pitching in the rotation or out of the bullpen. The Cards have not been shy about the kid’s workload, letting him go 103 pitches in his second career start after pitching for nearly three weeks out of the bullpen, and extending the leash up to 115 throws in his last game despite the fact that he lasted just 5.0 frames against the rival Cubs. I often think that pitch counts are overblown and that a pitcher’s per-inning totals are just as important as his pitch-count for the game, so it’s important to note that Reyes threw no more than 27 pitches in any of his five innings, but the fact that it only took him four throws to get tthrough the first highlights his lack of efficiency in the other four innings. Expect the pitch-count to be restricted in this outing, but otherwise consider Reyes good to go against a much softer offense than what he faced the last time around.

Jon Gray COL (at SF) – Gray has been the most extreme pitcher this season in terms of single-game highs and lows. One game he’s tossing a four-hit shutout at altitude (with 16 strikeouts) against the Padres, the next he’s getting ousted after 4.0 frames at sea level against the Dodgers. Gray has actually been a better pitcher at Coors Field this season, with a 4.30 ERA and 94:18 K:BB in 83.2 innings at home versus a 4.78 ERA and 88:38 K:BB in 79.0 innings when pitching on the road, a trend that makes it tougher to roster him. The natural impulse is avoid any pitcher starting at Coors and conventional wisdom states that Gray should be a monster when pitching at sea level, but that just hasn’t been the case. In his last four road starts (stretching back through August), Gray has posted an ugly ERA of 8.35 (plus a pair of unearned runs) with a K:BB of 29:10 in 18.1 combined innings – the high K count buoys his ranking.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Ray	0.303	3.94	0.332	4.35	0.262	0.769	0.336	3.56	0.258	99.17	25.7%
Ross	0.356	3.69	0.239	3.43	0.261	0.736	0.297	3.49	0.246	81.50	21.1%
Merritt					0.270	0.777
Norris	0.341	4.45	0.318	3.41	0.266	0.740	0.292	4.29	0.254	81.19	20.5%
Owens	0.398	5.84	0.340	5.16	0.255	0.729	0.297	5.18	0.262	0.00	18.3%
Sabathia	0.269	3.80	0.343	4.52	0.276	0.777	0.304	4.49	0.266	94.97	19.1%
Zastryzny					0.258	0.725	0.294	2.01	0.213	0.04	25.5%
Nova	0.373	5.14	0.307	4.23	0.250	0.744	0.300	4.45	0.27	78.79	17.2%
Jimenez	0.336	5.25	0.326	4.35	0.257	0.776	0.317	4.22	0.264	0.00	20.5%
Stroman	0.306	4.31	0.303	3.69	0.258	0.768	0.299	3.70	0.255	96.46	19.6%
Hellickson	0.334	4.10	0.307	4.19	0.257	0.699	0.283	4.21	0.249	92.34	19.4%
Collmenter	0.321	3.31	0.348	4.39	0.242	0.688	0.276	4.87	0.264	41.08	14.3%
Straily	0.299	4.12	0.314	3.67	0.259	0.756	0.241	4.80	0.218	88.19	20.1%
Reyes	0.300	2.20	0.217	1.14	0.254	0.720	0.260	2.74	0.182	0.03	28.1%
Gibson	0.339	4.70	0.310	4.01	0.261	0.716	0.303	4.33	0.267	100.00	16.7%
Duffy	0.235	2.16	0.330	4.08	0.257	0.739	0.294	4.06	0.247	70.01	22.2%
Archer	0.281	3.75	0.294	3.46	0.254	0.710	0.296	3.32	0.227	102.33	28.4%
Quintana	0.279	3.36	0.312	3.26	0.257	0.750	0.311	3.36	0.258	103.97	20.9%
Urias	0.333	4.32	0.323	3.30	0.243	0.702	0.362	3.22	0.275	79.88	24.4%
Friedrich	0.290	4.14	0.344	5.18	0.239	0.692	0.316	4.17	0.271	0.00	17.5%
Graveman	0.327	3.63	0.319	4.67	0.250	0.735	0.292	4.53	0.27	90.63	14.2%
Miranda			0.299	3.95	0.249	0.702	0.221	5.44	0.222	75.45	17.9%
Gray	0.303	4.38	0.329	5.10	0.263	0.737	0.323	3.60	0.251	0.00	25.5%
Cueto	0.274	2.39	0.292	3.75	0.274	0.790	0.284	3.28	0.236	102.48	21.1%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Danny Duffy KC (vs. MIN) – Duffy is coming off of a forgettable start against the Tigers, in which he gave up six runs (all earned) on seven hits and a season-high total of four walks in 3.2 innings of work in Detroit. He only struck out four batters in that game after punching out 32 batters in 26.0 innings over the past four games, but strikeouts were the only thing going for him – Duffy has given up a whopping total of 11 homers over his last six starts, with a 6.49 ERA over 34.2 innings despite his facing a blend of strong offenses (Red Sox, Tigers) and weak (A’s, White Sox). I want to vault Duffy to the Raise tier due to upside, but his recent performance leaves much to be desired, particularly after a four-game stretch that featured a 1.50 ERA and 21:6 K:BB in the four starts and 30.0 innings immediately following his 16-K, one-hit performance over eight scoreless frames against the Rays back on August 1.

Julio Urias LAD (at SD) – The Dodgers are going through hell with their pitching rotation right now, trying to balance the workloads of young studs like Urias and Jose De Leon yet trying to contend with the reality that many of their veteran starters have been compromised. Urias has been shifted from the rotation to the bullpen and back again a couple of times this season, though his times in the bullpen have each been limited to one appearance between starts. His last outing was in relief, tossing 33 pitches in two innings against the Giants, and in his previous start Urias was held to 78 throws despite throwing 3.2 scoreless innings against the Yankees. Expect another short outing in today’s game (similar to De Leon yesterday), effectively limiting his DFS upside given the importance of making it deep into ballgames, despite the pull to start the young lefty against the free-swinging Friars.

Marcus Stroman TOR (vs. BAL) – Stroman has been quietly efficient this month, tossing quality starts in five of his six turns and not allowing more than three earned runs in any one outing, though his modest strikeout totals and general lack of dominance has led to modest pitching lines in four of his five September starts. The exception came in his last turn, in which Stroman tossed seven one-hit frames of scoreless baseball against the Yankees, his longest outing in nearly a month and the only time that he has left the game with a zero in the runs column in 31 starts this season.

Rob Zastryzny CHC (at PIT) – He gets the same boost that any pitcher would receive for pitching in front of the insane defense of the Cubs. The Cubs carry a .257 BABiP as a team, a mark so strong that some of the best performers on the Cubs’ staff this season are those who specialize in balls in play – an attribute that is typically negative due to the vagaries of balls in play has switched to a point in his favor because the Chicago defense is so good at turning them into outs. For his part, Zastryzny is a low-strikeout pitcher who piled up the walks in the minors, with a 77:31 K:BB in 81.0 innings at Triple-A this season to go with a 4.33 ERA against the subpar competition.

Dan Straily CIN (at STL)

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (at ATL)

Ivan Nova PIT (vs. CHC)

Kendall Graveman OAK (at SEA)

CC Sabathia NYY (vs. BOS)

Ariel Miranda SEA (vs. OAK)

Josh Collmenter ATL (vs. PHI)