Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, June 7th

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher TM OPP IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Hendricks CHC PHI 243.1 3.66 3.40 1.10 22.1% 5.7% 0.74 2.01
Eickhoff PHI CHC 117.1 3.38 3.77 1.15 21.5% 5.4% 1.07 1.16
Ventura KCR BAL 225 4.28 4.22 1.36 44.4% 20.3% 9.6% 0.88 1.60
Jimenez BAL KCR 241.1 4.70 4.15 1.48 27.8% 20.3% 9.4% 0.97 1.77
Huff LAA NYY
Pineda NYY LAA 219.2 4.92 3.19 1.33 75.0% 23.8% 3.8% 1.31 1.54
Matz NYM PIT 91 2.47 3.36 1.12 23.6% 5.7% 0.79 1.78
Niese PIT NYM 240.2 4.19 4.30 1.41 41.2% 15.2% 7.3% 1.20 2.13
Sanchez TOR DET 164.2 3.12 4.05 1.25 18.4% 10.2% 0.71 2.96
Boyd DET TOR 73.1 6.75 4.65 1.49 17.4% 7.6% 2.33 0.70
Leake STL CIN 260.1 3.73 4.20 1.16 45.0% 15.2% 5.9% 1.11 1.92
Lamb CIN STL 80.1 5.71 4.30 1.58 20.6% 8.9% 1.46 0.99
Keuchel HOU TEX 307.1 3.22 3.11 1.12 50.0% 22.6% 6.3% 0.73 3.00
Hamels TEX HOU 281.1 3.58 3.51 1.22 58.8% 24.4% 7.5% 1.12 1.60
Conley MIA MIN 125 3.74 4.14 1.34 21.8% 9.0% 0.72 1.05
Dean MIN MIA 26 4.15 3.94 1.42 20.9% 6.4% 1.38 0.97
Manaea OAK MIL 38 6.16 4.65 1.53 17.2% 7.7% 1.18 1.00
Davies MIL OAK 83.2 4.20 4.30 1.27 17.9% 8.7% 0.97 1.93
Ross WAS CWS 137.1 3.08 3.92 1.13 20.6% 7.0% 0.72 1.45
Latos CWS WAS 172.1 4.65 4.33 1.34 66.7% 17.7% 7.2% 1.15 1.29
Moore TBR ARI 125.2 5.44 4.37 1.53 19.1% 7.9% 1.50 1.05
Greinke ARI TBR 300.1 2.34 3.34 0.95 50.0% 23.2% 4.6% 0.69 1.48
Blair ATL SDP 31 7.55 6.03 1.81 11.0% 12.4% 1.16 1.18
Rea SDP ATL 87.1 4.64 4.62 1.33 17.2% 9.0% 0.82 1.40
Anderson CLE SEA 131 4.19 4.63 1.25 13.8% 5.7% 1.31 1.30
Miley SEA CLE 258.1 4.81 4.29 1.39 33.3% 17.7% 7.5% 1.01 1.48
Butler COL LAD 116 5.82 5.02 1.66 13.0% 9.1% 1.47 1.62
Urias LAD COL
Porcello BOS SFG 241.2 4.66 3.72 1.28 55.6% 20.6% 5.1% 1.34 1.38
Suarez SFG BOS 17 3.18 4.03 1.00 15.2% 6.1% 0.00 2.00

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Steven Matz NYM (at PIT) – He was rained out yesterday, so I’ll repeat my thoughts on him:

The matchup isn’t necessarily the best as the Pirates hit well against lefties, but he’s been so dominant since his season debut that I find him to be matchup-proof. The Marlins clubbed him for 7 ER in just 1.7 IP on April 11th. He’s allowed just 9 ER in 53.7 IP since (1.51 ERA) with 52 strikeouts and nine walks. Not only is he fanning about a batter per inning, but he’s also running a 56% groundball rate, up from 46% last year. Health has been the only real concern for him as a major leaguer, but that’s really more of a season-long fantasy problem. The Miami debut at home is no doubt influencing this, but he’s done his best work on the road with a 1.32 ERA, 29 Ks, and a 7.3 K:BB ratio in 27.3 IP over four starts.

Zack Greinke ARI (TB) – Is Greinke back on track? It seems so and it’s not just his last couple of starts. Since getting rocked for 7 ER vs. StL, he’s reeled off a 3.06 ERA in his last seven starts with 47 Ks and just 8 BBs in 47 IP. He has fanned 7+ in five of the seven starts, too. The Rays have shown some nice power this year, but Greinke is matchup proof when he’s rolling.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Cole Hamels TEX (HOU) – The Rangers have flat out owned the Houston Astros lately and Hamels has definitely done his part since joining the team. He had a 6.7 IP/1 ER outing in Texas back in April and then went 8 IP/1 ER (2 R) with 11 Ks in Houston just a couple weeks ago on May 22nd. The Astros are 11th in wRC+ against lefties this year, but have the second-highest strikeout rate at 26%. Hamels has had some issues with walks and homers this year so he’s not quite the All-In type, but I’m still comfortable with him fronting a lineup in most instances.

Kyle Hendricks CHC (at PHI) – Hendricks doesn’t jump off the page with his 21% K rate, but he pairs it with a 58% groundball rate and lots of weak contact. His 29% soft-contact rate is baseball’s second-best mark this year (Tanner Roark 31%). Don’t ignore him just because of the modest strikeout rate. You should get 6+ innings and be in line for a win. Plus, it’s not like he’s incapable of getting strikeouts. He does have four outings of 6+ this year, including seven in a complete game (1 ER) against these Phillies on May 28th.

Joe Ross WAS (at CWS) – He’s catching the White Sox at a perfect time. They’ve been scuffling with just 3.1 runs per game over their last 17 and they sit just 27th in wRC+ against righties. His strikeout and walk rates are both a little worse than last year, but a 10% swinging strike rate suggests some more strikeouts could be on the way. He also maintains a solid groundball rate and stifles homers so it’s not as scary sending him into US Cellular.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher wOBA vs L ERA vs L wOBA vs R ERA vs R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Hendricks 0.321 3.17 0.252 4.03 0.242 0.674 0.281 3.25 0.23 0.01 22.1%
Eickhoff 0.358 4.69 0.250 2.19 0.249 0.739 0.284 3.64 0.242 0.01 21.5%
Ventura 0.319 5.11 0.306 3.40 0.258 0.764 0.294 4.04 0.245 0.01 20.3%
Jimenez 0.329 5.04 0.338 4.35 0.269 0.737 0.324 4.15 0.269 0.00 20.3%
Huff 0.252 0.725
Pineda 0.339 4.59 0.346 5.20 0.254 0.717 0.349 3.58 0.286 0.01 23.8%
Matz 0.313 2.25 0.256 2.54 0.254 0.709 0.292 3.15 0.235 0.02 23.6%
Niese 0.334 3.23 0.343 4.46 0.240 0.715 0.299 4.64 0.273 0.00 15.2%
Sanchez 0.340 3.40 0.230 2.81 0.268 0.741 0.265 3.97 0.226 0.00 18.4%
Boyd 0.433 10.61 0.371 5.43 0.268 0.786 0.304 6.02 0.292 0.00 17.4%
Leake 0.310 4.19 0.284 3.24 0.245 0.704 0.258 4.30 0.24 0.00 15.2%
Lamb 0.442 7.56 0.350 5.23 0.234 0.679 0.345 4.70 0.292 0.00 20.6%
Keuchel 0.231 3.21 0.288 3.22 0.259 0.737 0.285 3.17 0.231 0.01 22.6%
Hamels 0.280 2.05 0.309 4.01 0.247 0.750 0.293 3.82 0.237 0.01 24.4%
Conley 0.370 6.43 0.300 3.20 0.254 0.716 0.313 3.66 0.252 0.01 21.8%
Dean 0.367 4.09 0.275 0.738 0.342 4.16 0.291 0.04 20.9%
Manaea 0.394 7.14 0.235 0.686 0.331 4.41 0.29 0.00 17.2%
Davies 0.314 3.25 0.312 4.91 0.250 0.703 0.275 4.19 0.241 0.01 17.9%
Ross 0.342 3.17 0.219 3.01 0.249 0.695 0.269 3.44 0.225 0.01 20.6%
Latos 0.339 5.01 0.309 4.32 0.244 0.712 0.294 4.23 0.26 0.01 17.7%
Moore 0.335 5.65 0.367 5.36 0.261 0.753 0.335 4.81 0.292 0.00 19.1%
Greinke 0.269 2.56 0.233 2.15 0.243 0.704 0.255 2.91 0.208 0.01 23.2%
Blair 0.415 5.63 0.353 9.60 0.239 0.675 0.324 5.70 0.304 0.00 11.0%
Rea 0.287 4.41 0.345 4.95 0.252 0.670 0.280 4.20 0.243 0.01 17.2%
Anderson 0.346 5.34 0.294 3.25 0.248 0.736 0.275 4.63 0.261 0.01 13.8%
Miley 0.308 4.47 0.338 4.91 0.265 0.730 0.310 4.11 0.27 0.00 17.7%
Butler 0.431 6.02 0.355 5.65 0.243 0.720 0.326 5.48 0.306 0.00 13.0%
Urias 0.255 0.699
Porcello 0.322 4.26 0.344 5.13 0.262 0.735 0.313 4.18 0.27 0.01 20.6%
Suarez 0.271 0.766 0.26 3.01 0.217 0.03 15.2%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Aaron Sanchez TOR (at DET) – Have you noticed that Sanchez has made into the seventh inning in each of his last seven starts, putting together a 2.81 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with 41 Ks in 48 IP. I’m surprising his breakout isn’t getting more attention. His profile is similar to Hendricks’ in that he doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts (21%), but more than makes up for it with a premium groundball rate (59%). Everyone knows the Tigers beat up on lefties, but they’re also 6th in wRC+ against righties so while I like a lot of what Sanchez has been doing this year, it’s not a great matchup.

Adam Conley MIA (at MIN) – Conley can be a frustrating DFS play. He has the talent to be good in any given matchup, but he’s also an inconsistent 26-year old so there isn’t always rhyme or reason to his ups and downs. The Brewers ran him up for 4 ER on 9 base runners in early May (after he went 7.7 no-hit innings against them on 4/29), but then he shuts down the Pirates – one of the league’s best offenses against lefties. I’m comfortable betting on the talent and taking on the risk, especially in two pitcher formats.

Sean Manaea OAK (at MIL) – Manaea is a less-proven, higher-pedigree version of Conley at this point. He has really come on of late, too. He had an 11.37 ERA through his first three starts as a major leaguer, but has a 3.55 ERA in his last four going 6+ in each, including 3 QS. He logged a career-high 8 Ks his last time out. He has the kind of swing-and-miss that can amass strikeouts in a hurry so the spike last outing isn’t necessarily a one-time fluke.

Cody Anderson CLE (at SEA) – Anderson has been mostly brutal this year, but his last start might offer some encouragement. He went 7 IP/1 ER at the White Sox with a season-high nine strikeouts. It’s about time the strikeouts showed up because he’s been rocking a swinging strike rate (12%) that portends something way better than his 18% K rate. The Mariners have been tough on pitchers this year and Anderson hasn’t done enough to be a premium option, but he’s an interest zag today.

Mike Leake STL (at CIN) – Diving into his gamelog shows a guy getting on track. He has just a 1.59 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 0-2 ER in all five, although with just 20 Ks in 34 IP. He put up a 6.03 ERA in his first six starts which is why such a hot run only has him down to 3.82 on the season. That 15% K rate is really tough to swallow and If the Reds weren’t so bad, there’s no way I’d even consider Leake.

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

John Lamb

Mat Latos

Ubaldo Jimenez

Yordano Ventura

Starting Pitcher Salaries

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.