Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, June 7th

by PSporer Last Updated 2016-06-09 18:15:52

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Hendricks	CHC	PHI	243.1	3.66	3.40	1.10		22.1%	5.7%	0.74	2.01
Eickhoff	PHI	CHC	117.1	3.38	3.77	1.15		21.5%	5.4%	1.07	1.16
Ventura	KCR	BAL	225	4.28	4.22	1.36	44.4%	20.3%	9.6%	0.88	1.60
Jimenez	BAL	KCR	241.1	4.70	4.15	1.48	27.8%	20.3%	9.4%	0.97	1.77
Huff	LAA	NYY
Pineda	NYY	LAA	219.2	4.92	3.19	1.33	75.0%	23.8%	3.8%	1.31	1.54
Matz	NYM	PIT	91	2.47	3.36	1.12		23.6%	5.7%	0.79	1.78
Niese	PIT	NYM	240.2	4.19	4.30	1.41	41.2%	15.2%	7.3%	1.20	2.13
Sanchez	TOR	DET	164.2	3.12	4.05	1.25		18.4%	10.2%	0.71	2.96
Boyd	DET	TOR	73.1	6.75	4.65	1.49		17.4%	7.6%	2.33	0.70
Leake	STL	CIN	260.1	3.73	4.20	1.16	45.0%	15.2%	5.9%	1.11	1.92
Lamb	CIN	STL	80.1	5.71	4.30	1.58		20.6%	8.9%	1.46	0.99
Keuchel	HOU	TEX	307.1	3.22	3.11	1.12	50.0%	22.6%	6.3%	0.73	3.00
Hamels	TEX	HOU	281.1	3.58	3.51	1.22	58.8%	24.4%	7.5%	1.12	1.60
Conley	MIA	MIN	125	3.74	4.14	1.34		21.8%	9.0%	0.72	1.05
Dean	MIN	MIA	26	4.15	3.94	1.42		20.9%	6.4%	1.38	0.97
Manaea	OAK	MIL	38	6.16	4.65	1.53		17.2%	7.7%	1.18	1.00
Davies	MIL	OAK	83.2	4.20	4.30	1.27		17.9%	8.7%	0.97	1.93
Ross	WAS	CWS	137.1	3.08	3.92	1.13		20.6%	7.0%	0.72	1.45
Latos	CWS	WAS	172.1	4.65	4.33	1.34	66.7%	17.7%	7.2%	1.15	1.29
Moore	TBR	ARI	125.2	5.44	4.37	1.53		19.1%	7.9%	1.50	1.05
Greinke	ARI	TBR	300.1	2.34	3.34	0.95	50.0%	23.2%	4.6%	0.69	1.48
Blair	ATL	SDP	31	7.55	6.03	1.81		11.0%	12.4%	1.16	1.18
Rea	SDP	ATL	87.1	4.64	4.62	1.33		17.2%	9.0%	0.82	1.40
Anderson	CLE	SEA	131	4.19	4.63	1.25		13.8%	5.7%	1.31	1.30
Miley	SEA	CLE	258.1	4.81	4.29	1.39	33.3%	17.7%	7.5%	1.01	1.48
Butler	COL	LAD	116	5.82	5.02	1.66		13.0%	9.1%	1.47	1.62
Urias	LAD	COL
Porcello	BOS	SFG	241.2	4.66	3.72	1.28	55.6%	20.6%	5.1%	1.34	1.38
Suarez	SFG	BOS	17	3.18	4.03	1.00		15.2%	6.1%	0.00	2.00

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Steven Matz NYM (at PIT) – He was rained out yesterday, so I’ll repeat my thoughts on him:

The matchup isn’t necessarily the best as the Pirates hit well against lefties, but he’s been so dominant since his season debut that I find him to be matchup-proof. The Marlins clubbed him for 7 ER in just 1.7 IP on April 11th. He’s allowed just 9 ER in 53.7 IP since (1.51 ERA) with 52 strikeouts and nine walks. Not only is he fanning about a batter per inning, but he’s also running a 56% groundball rate, up from 46% last year. Health has been the only real concern for him as a major leaguer, but that’s really more of a season-long fantasy problem. The Miami debut at home is no doubt influencing this, but he’s done his best work on the road with a 1.32 ERA, 29 Ks, and a 7.3 K:BB ratio in 27.3 IP over four starts.

Zack Greinke ARI (TB) – Is Greinke back on track? It seems so and it’s not just his last couple of starts. Since getting rocked for 7 ER vs. StL, he’s reeled off a 3.06 ERA in his last seven starts with 47 Ks and just 8 BBs in 47 IP. He has fanned 7+ in five of the seven starts, too. The Rays have shown some nice power this year, but Greinke is matchup proof when he’s rolling.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Cole Hamels TEX (HOU) – The Rangers have flat out owned the Houston Astros lately and Hamels has definitely done his part since joining the team. He had a 6.7 IP/1 ER outing in Texas back in April and then went 8 IP/1 ER (2 R) with 11 Ks in Houston just a couple weeks ago on May 22nd. The Astros are 11th in wRC+ against lefties this year, but have the second-highest strikeout rate at 26%. Hamels has had some issues with walks and homers this year so he’s not quite the All-In type, but I’m still comfortable with him fronting a lineup in most instances.

Kyle Hendricks CHC (at PHI) – Hendricks doesn’t jump off the page with his 21% K rate, but he pairs it with a 58% groundball rate and lots of weak contact. His 29% soft-contact rate is baseball’s second-best mark this year (Tanner Roark 31%). Don’t ignore him just because of the modest strikeout rate. You should get 6+ innings and be in line for a win. Plus, it’s not like he’s incapable of getting strikeouts. He does have four outings of 6+ this year, including seven in a complete game (1 ER) against these Phillies on May 28th.

Joe Ross WAS (at CWS) – He’s catching the White Sox at a perfect time. They’ve been scuffling with just 3.1 runs per game over their last 17 and they sit just 27th in wRC+ against righties. His strikeout and walk rates are both a little worse than last year, but a 10% swinging strike rate suggests some more strikeouts could be on the way. He also maintains a solid groundball rate and stifles homers so it’s not as scary sending him into US Cellular.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Hendricks	0.321	3.17	0.252	4.03	0.242	0.674	0.281	3.25	0.23	0.01	22.1%
Eickhoff	0.358	4.69	0.250	2.19	0.249	0.739	0.284	3.64	0.242	0.01	21.5%
Ventura	0.319	5.11	0.306	3.40	0.258	0.764	0.294	4.04	0.245	0.01	20.3%
Jimenez	0.329	5.04	0.338	4.35	0.269	0.737	0.324	4.15	0.269	0.00	20.3%
Huff					0.252	0.725
Pineda	0.339	4.59	0.346	5.20	0.254	0.717	0.349	3.58	0.286	0.01	23.8%
Matz	0.313	2.25	0.256	2.54	0.254	0.709	0.292	3.15	0.235	0.02	23.6%
Niese	0.334	3.23	0.343	4.46	0.240	0.715	0.299	4.64	0.273	0.00	15.2%
Sanchez	0.340	3.40	0.230	2.81	0.268	0.741	0.265	3.97	0.226	0.00	18.4%
Boyd	0.433	10.61	0.371	5.43	0.268	0.786	0.304	6.02	0.292	0.00	17.4%
Leake	0.310	4.19	0.284	3.24	0.245	0.704	0.258	4.30	0.24	0.00	15.2%
Lamb	0.442	7.56	0.350	5.23	0.234	0.679	0.345	4.70	0.292	0.00	20.6%
Keuchel	0.231	3.21	0.288	3.22	0.259	0.737	0.285	3.17	0.231	0.01	22.6%
Hamels	0.280	2.05	0.309	4.01	0.247	0.750	0.293	3.82	0.237	0.01	24.4%
Conley	0.370	6.43	0.300	3.20	0.254	0.716	0.313	3.66	0.252	0.01	21.8%
Dean			0.367	4.09	0.275	0.738	0.342	4.16	0.291	0.04	20.9%
Manaea			0.394	7.14	0.235	0.686	0.331	4.41	0.29	0.00	17.2%
Davies	0.314	3.25	0.312	4.91	0.250	0.703	0.275	4.19	0.241	0.01	17.9%
Ross	0.342	3.17	0.219	3.01	0.249	0.695	0.269	3.44	0.225	0.01	20.6%
Latos	0.339	5.01	0.309	4.32	0.244	0.712	0.294	4.23	0.26	0.01	17.7%
Moore	0.335	5.65	0.367	5.36	0.261	0.753	0.335	4.81	0.292	0.00	19.1%
Greinke	0.269	2.56	0.233	2.15	0.243	0.704	0.255	2.91	0.208	0.01	23.2%
Blair	0.415	5.63	0.353	9.60	0.239	0.675	0.324	5.70	0.304	0.00	11.0%
Rea	0.287	4.41	0.345	4.95	0.252	0.670	0.280	4.20	0.243	0.01	17.2%
Anderson	0.346	5.34	0.294	3.25	0.248	0.736	0.275	4.63	0.261	0.01	13.8%
Miley	0.308	4.47	0.338	4.91	0.265	0.730	0.310	4.11	0.27	0.00	17.7%
Butler	0.431	6.02	0.355	5.65	0.243	0.720	0.326	5.48	0.306	0.00	13.0%
Urias					0.255	0.699
Porcello	0.322	4.26	0.344	5.13	0.262	0.735	0.313	4.18	0.27	0.01	20.6%
Suarez					0.271	0.766	0.26	3.01	0.217	0.03	15.2%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Aaron Sanchez TOR (at DET) – Have you noticed that Sanchez has made into the seventh inning in each of his last seven starts, putting together a 2.81 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with 41 Ks in 48 IP. I’m surprising his breakout isn’t getting more attention. His profile is similar to Hendricks’ in that he doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts (21%), but more than makes up for it with a premium groundball rate (59%). Everyone knows the Tigers beat up on lefties, but they’re also 6th in wRC+ against righties so while I like a lot of what Sanchez has been doing this year, it’s not a great matchup.

Adam Conley MIA (at MIN) – Conley can be a frustrating DFS play. He has the talent to be good in any given matchup, but he’s also an inconsistent 26-year old so there isn’t always rhyme or reason to his ups and downs. The Brewers ran him up for 4 ER on 9 base runners in early May (after he went 7.7 no-hit innings against them on 4/29), but then he shuts down the Pirates – one of the league’s best offenses against lefties. I’m comfortable betting on the talent and taking on the risk, especially in two pitcher formats.

Sean Manaea OAK (at MIL) – Manaea is a less-proven, higher-pedigree version of Conley at this point. He has really come on of late, too. He had an 11.37 ERA through his first three starts as a major leaguer, but has a 3.55 ERA in his last four going 6+ in each, including 3 QS. He logged a career-high 8 Ks his last time out. He has the kind of swing-and-miss that can amass strikeouts in a hurry so the spike last outing isn’t necessarily a one-time fluke.

Cody Anderson CLE (at SEA) – Anderson has been mostly brutal this year, but his last start might offer some encouragement. He went 7 IP/1 ER at the White Sox with a season-high nine strikeouts. It’s about time the strikeouts showed up because he’s been rocking a swinging strike rate (12%) that portends something way better than his 18% K rate. The Mariners have been tough on pitchers this year and Anderson hasn’t done enough to be a premium option, but he’s an interest zag today.

Mike Leake STL (at CIN) – Diving into his gamelog shows a guy getting on track. He has just a 1.59 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 0-2 ER in all five, although with just 20 Ks in 34 IP. He put up a 6.03 ERA in his first six starts which is why such a hot run only has him down to 3.82 on the season. That 15% K rate is really tough to swallow and If the Reds weren’t so bad, there’s no way I’d even consider Leake.