Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, August 19th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-08-21 15:43:13

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Santana	MIN	NYY	243.2	4.28	3.93	1.34	38.9%	20.1%	7.9%	0.92	1.21
Eovaldi	NYY	MIN	328.2	4.33	3.97	1.39	50.0%	16.5%	5.7%	0.66	1.57
Montgomery	SEA	TEX	82.2	4.14	4.34	1.34		17.2%	9.0%	1.09	1.69
Holland	TEX	SEA	38	1.66	3.85	1.08		16.8%	3.4%	0.24	1.00
Koehler	MIA	MIL	325.2	3.76	4.28	1.27	52.6%	18.1%	8.6%	0.86	1.19
Peralta	MIL	MIA	276	3.68	3.92	1.33	47.4%	17.0%	7.1%	1.08	1.88
Wood	LAD	OAK	308.2	3.21	3.59	1.26	58.3%	21.6%	7.0%	0.76	1.44
Chavez	OAK	LAD	277.1	3.63	3.74	1.31	52.6%	21.2%	7.3%	0.97	1.17
Teheran	ATL	SDP	365	3.50	3.85	1.19	70.0%	20.7%	6.9%	0.99	0.93
Ross	SDP	ATL	341.1	3.06	3.27	1.28	66.7%	24.5%	9.7%	0.47	2.97
Buehrle	TOR	PHI	357	3.35	4.39	1.27	60.0%	12.9%	4.7%	0.78	1.38
Morgan	PHI	TOR	50.1	4.11	5.30	1.29		12.3%	6.6%	1.43	0.60
Ray	ARI	PIT	110.2	4.55	4.18	1.40	33.3%	18.9%	7.6%	0.89	0.93
Happ	PIT	ARI	276.1	4.40	4.01	1.38	30.8%	19.2%	7.3%	1.17	1.12
Syndergaard	NYM	BAL	105.2	3.07	3.11	1.10		25.9%	5.6%	0.94	1.26
Jimenez	BAL	NYM	256.1	4.35	4.12	1.41	27.8%	21.4%	10.7%	1.02	1.39
Guthrie	KCR	CIN	327.1	4.70	4.65	1.40	42.1%	13.1%	6.0%	1.15	1.07
Sampson	CIN	KCR	17	3.18	4.24	1.12		21.4%	10.0%	1.06	0.81
Kluber	CLE	BOS	416.1	2.83	2.74	1.07	57.1%	27.8%	5.1%	0.58	1.43
Kelly	BOS	CLE	196	4.96	4.22	1.43	40.0%	17.8%	9.2%	0.96	1.75
Cain	SFG	STL	132	4.77	4.30	1.36	40.0%	17.5%	8.1%	1.43	1.15
Garcia	STL	SFG	118	2.52	3.01	0.96	28.6%	20.0%	5.5%	0.76	3.07
Norris	DET	CHC	47	4.40	5.02	1.45		15.6%	10.2%	1.15	0.76
Lester	CHC	DET	365.1	2.76	3.12	1.13	65.0%	24.9%	5.7%	0.67	1.34
Karns	TBR	HOU	142	3.61	3.81	1.21		23.2%	8.9%	1.20	1.16
Keuchel	HOU	TBR	371.2	2.66	2.95	1.10	50.0%	20.1%	6.0%	0.48	3.54
Strasburg	WAS	COL	289	3.52	2.80	1.19	52.4%	27.2%	5.3%	0.97	1.42
De La Rosa	COL	WAS	294.1	4.34	4.05	1.29	40.0%	19.3%	9.4%	1.04	1.76
Samardzija	CHW	LAA	383.1	3.76	3.50	1.14	60.0%	20.6%	4.9%	0.94	1.35
Weaver	LAA	CHW	321	3.93	4.34	1.21	52.4%	17.1%	6.2%	1.23	0.73

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

There are some big arms on the slate, but the context doesn’t quite line up to recommend an all-in strategy given the myriad caveats that exist on tonight’s docket.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Corey Kluber CLE (at BOS) – Kluber is an All-in pitcher on a foldable assignment tonight in Boston. The right-hander is coming off two consecutive complete games against the Twins, with two total runs allowed across the 18 innings with just four combined hits and including 17 strikeouts against a pair of walks. He draws a much tougher opponent this time around, as the big Red Sox machine has been scoring runs by the bushel and averaging 8.6 runs per game over their last 10 contests, making this the toughest assignment in the game right now (outside of Denver). Kluber has had his ups and downs this season, trading sheer dominance with high-scoring outings, as he has allowed four or more runs in nine of his 25 starts. He earns the top billing tonight, but I won’t be shocked if the Boston bats raise the four-run count to 10 games in Kluber’s last 26 starts.

Noah Syndergaard NYM (at BAL) – Rookies are supposed to struggle with their command. Rookies are expected to have major hiccups throughout the first season as teams learn their repertoires and how to exploit them. Rookies are typically protected with hyper-limited pitch counts to reduce the exposure of their prized limbs. Thor is none of these things, besides being a rookie. His K-to-walk distribution of 111-to-24 is off the chart, with a 4.63 ratio that would rank eighth in the National League if he had enough innings to qualify. He has the hardest fastball among big-league starters at 97.6 mph, and Thor’s hammer has been responsible for finishing 42 of his strikeouts this season, creating a deadly combination that will only become more lethal as he continues to develop his change.

Dallas Keuchel HOU (vs. TB) – The Rays are a different ballclub when facing a southpaw, including an OPS that is 78 points higher and an ISO that grows by .032 when compared to their performance against right-handers. Tampa has structured their roster to be optimized for platoon situations, but one wonders how much that will matter against a left-hander that has improved on a near-linear path over the past two seasons. Strikeouts were the last part of his profile to come around, but with 102 punchouts in his last 99 innings (including three games with double-digit K’s in that stretch) he has bucked the reputation of defensive guru who survives copious amounts of balls in play to the type of hurler that batters dread to face.

Jon Lester CHC (vs. DET) – A southpaw that enters the Tiger pit might as well have a necklace made of steaks around his neck, because nearly the entire Detroit lineup is honed in on left-handed exploits. This trend is present throughout the lineup, extending to their big bats of J.D. Martinez, Ian Kinsler, and fresh-off-the-DL Miguel Cabrera as much as to their less-formidable batters such as Rajai Davis and Jose Iglesias. Throw in Lester’s vulnerability to the stolen base, a factor which will grab the attention of any rabbits on the Detroit roster, and he is walking into known danger with merely his left arm to protect him. That said, his southern wing has served Lester well in the recent past, including a five-start run over the past month that includes a 2.04 ERA, 40 strikeouts and only six walks in 35.3 innings.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Santana	0.337	4.52	0.310	4.03	0.254	0.747	0.308	3.82	0.259	95.72	20.1%
Eovaldi	0.347	4.46	0.300	4.20	0.243	0.695	0.330	3.47	0.284	96.46	16.5%
Montgomery	0.368	6.30	0.302	3.45	0.244	0.695	0.277	4.48	0.247	94.07	17.2%
Holland	0.271	2.79	0.278	1.27	0.255	0.694	0.297	2.55	0.25	83.00	16.8%
Koehler	0.300	3.81	0.312	3.70	0.258	0.706	0.277	4.02	0.24	91.58	18.1%
Peralta	0.357	4.71	0.295	2.69	0.246	0.654	0.299	4.24	0.265	97.07	17.0%
Wood	0.277	2.63	0.315	3.39	0.244	0.679	0.312	3.38	0.254	83.33	21.6%
Chavez	0.320	3.50	0.294	3.80	0.255	0.761	0.306	3.74	0.255	79.58	21.2%
Teheran	0.328	3.93	0.277	3.10	0.243	0.679	0.282	3.80	0.239	98.30	20.7%
Ross	0.302	3.21	0.283	2.92	0.259	0.687	0.309	3.10	0.234	99.38	24.5%
Buehrle	0.317	3.42	0.318	3.33	0.262	0.700	0.297	3.82	0.272	95.15	12.9%
Morgan	0.253	4.63	0.358	3.96	0.284	0.822	0.269	5.16	0.263	82.89	12.3%
Ray	0.325	3.19	0.354	5.08	0.255	0.704	0.320	3.81	0.272	84.00	18.9%
Happ	0.371	4.29	0.329	4.42	0.263	0.732	0.312	4.14	0.27	89.51	19.2%
Syndergaard	0.286	2.96	0.274	3.15	0.249	0.729	0.289	3.10	0.229	99.41	25.9%
Jimenez	0.333	4.90	0.313	3.70	0.239	0.679	0.298	4.26	0.247	93.60	21.4%
Guthrie	0.377	6.03	0.291	3.15	0.250	0.707	0.304	4.64	0.283	98.02	13.1%
Sampson	0.364	4.91	0.192	1.86	0.270	0.739	0.217	4.11	0.19	71.75	21.4%
Kluber	0.309	3.09	0.234	2.56	0.261	0.722	0.310	2.45	0.23	103.73	27.8%
Kelly	0.318	4.07	0.345	5.97	0.251	0.712	0.303	4.33	0.262	94.00	17.8%
Cain	0.375	5.62	0.320	4.12	0.262	0.723	0.285	4.88	0.259	93.52	17.5%
Garcia	0.319	4.39	0.241	1.97	0.265	0.701	0.241	3.42	0.207	91.50	20.0%
Norris	0.370	5.68	0.329	3.93	0.248	0.709	0.285	4.88	0.258	64.62	15.6%
Lester	0.308	2.51	0.282	2.83	0.275	0.772	0.305	2.83	0.237	105.53	24.9%
Karns	0.305	2.97	0.298	4.28	0.244	0.738	0.265	4.18	0.223	93.72	23.2%
Keuchel	0.225	2.39	0.284	2.75	0.258	0.756	0.282	3.00	0.232	104.60	20.1%
Strasburg	0.295	2.92	0.314	4.01	0.275	0.788	0.326	3.01	0.25	93.10	27.2%
De La Rosa	0.278	3.57	0.329	4.57	0.250	0.703	0.273	4.31	0.237	94.67	19.3%
Samardzija	0.319	4.01	0.285	3.53	0.249	0.708	0.291	3.55	0.246	102.58	20.6%
Weaver	0.326	4.05	0.291	3.75	0.252	0.698	0.269	4.36	0.245	97.35	17.1%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Jaime Garcia STL (vs. SF) – At some point I have to give credit where it is due. Not only has Garcia come back to be a viable member of the Cardinals rotation, but he has continued to excel in the role despite a never-ending wave of pessimism that spews from this direction. St. Louis has a starting rotation that is incredibly deep, such that if everything holds together Garcia and his 1.57 ERA would likely get bumped to the bullpen for the playoffs, an incredible development for a club that lost ace Adam Wainwright back in April without missing a beat.

Nate Karns TB (at HOU) – Karns catches the Astros offense wile it’s in a bit of a funk, including a .284 wOBA and 643 OPS as a team over the last seven days, but his own stamina issues could act to limit his fantasy value in tonight’s ballgame. Karns has been held to 86 pitches or fewer in each of his last five turns despite his being reasonably effective, starting with his exit after 85 pitches and six shutout frames back on July 21st and continuing with pitch counts of 71, 79, 86, and 81 throws over his next four games. It will be tough for Karns to compile the innings or the K count necessary to please his fantasy managers if he continues to be held to such a strict pitch budget, and the fact that he cleared the 86-pitch mark in 15 of his first 18 games brings up the question of whether the pitching-thin Rays have been limiting Karns’ innings for the sake of the long-term or whether they have seen a slip of effectiveness that has altered the paradigm of his usage pattern.

Jeff Samardzija CHW (at LAA) – The Shark is resilient, but his tough skin has not done his fantasy managers any favors this season. He gave up six runs in 6.0 innings his last start, the sixth time this season that he has allowed four or more tallies while pitching enough innings to qualify for a quality start. He entered the month of August on a string of 10 straight starts of at least 7.0 innings pitched, but he has yet to generate an out in the seventh inning of a game since the calendar flipped, and his last three turns have been especially brutal: 22 runs over 15.3 innings (a 12.91 ERA), including five home runs. Perhaps the rest of the league was wise to his next explosion, given that the impending free agent stayed put on the last-place White Sox as the trade deadline came and went.

Robbie Ray ARI (at PIT) – Ray has been quietly effective this season, with a 3.29 ERA and just six homers allowed in 82.0 innings, but his performance is starting to go downhill. He has a 5.33 ERA over his last five starts and opposing batters have a massive .540 slug against him during that stretch. The walks have also become a problem recently, including 13 free passes in those five ballgames and giving away four walks in his last turn, a 4.3-inning start against the lowly Braves in which Ray failed to record a strikeout. The lefty’s GameScore cracked the 50 barrier seven times in his first nine starts, but he has cracked that threshold just twice in the last five.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (at COL) – Stras’ profile is dripping with optimism after two starts since he came back from the disabled list, with a combined 13.0 innings of 2.08 ERA baseball and 20 strikeouts against two walks. Perhaps he has turned the corner from the injuries and ineffectiveness that plagued the right-hander for much of the season, but the high altitude of Coors Field is unforgiving and Strasburg could take a major step backwards through no fault of his own. It will be interesting to see if he exaggerates his changeup frequency tonight, given the curve-reducing effects of pitching a mile high and the continued development of Strasburg’s cambio.

Jered Weaver LAA (vs. CHW) – Weaver is trying to survive with a fastball that has fallen into Jamie Moyer territory at an average of just under 85 mph this season, but Weaver is about ten years shy of the age-related excuses that allowed us to wave away the tempered velo of Moyer. Expect more reports about Weaver to include terms such as “moxie” and “guile” to explain his survival in the wild of MLB despite his possessing such limited tools, but whether or not he is actually surviving is a point of contention. The 4.60 ERA is more than a full run higher than anything that he has posted in the past six seasons, the K rate has cratered to an unacceptable 4.9 strikeouts per nine innings, and his downturn in walks surrendered is hardly enough to compensate for rapidly-escalating frequencies of hits and homers allowed that raise the question of how much longer he can stay alive in the Angels’ rotation.

Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (vs. NYM)

Mark Buehrle TOR (at PHI)

Matt Cain SF (at STL)

Daniel Norris DET (at CHC)

J.A. Happ PIT (vs. ARI)

Joe Kelly BOS (vs. CLE)

Keyvius Sampson CIN (vs. KC)