Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, June 22nd

by PSporer Last Updated 2016-06-23 01:29:37

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Gant	ATL	MIA	22.2	4.37	4.08	1.41		24.2%	11.1%	0.79	1.00
Conley	MIA	ATL	142.1	3.86	4.22	1.35		21.4%	9.0%	0.82	1.01
Gray	COL	NYY	106	4.92	3.55	1.35		24.7%	7.3%	1.02	1.54
Sabathia	NYY	COL	232.2	4.02	4.18	1.37	25.0%	19.3%	7.7%	1.16	1.38
Duffy	KCR	NYM	190.2	3.82	4.16	1.30	57.1%	20.5%	8.1%	1.13	0.97
Syndergaard	NYM	KCR	235	2.76	2.74	1.02		29.1%	4.6%	0.88	1.57
Shoemaker	LAA	HOU	209.1	4.47	3.80	1.26	44.4%	21.9%	5.7%	1.46	0.96
McCullers	HOU	LAA	166	3.47	3.68	1.31		25.5%	9.8%	0.60	1.69
Arrieta	CHC	STL	322	1.76	2.89	0.89	50.0%	27.3%	6.4%	0.36	2.42
Guerra	MIL	OAK	58.1	4.01	4.31	1.23		20.1%	8.0%	1.08	1.05
Mengden	OAK	MIL	12	2.25	4.10	1.25		23.1%	9.6%	1.50	1.50
Ray	ARI	TOR	202.2	3.86	3.99	1.42	33.3%	23.0%	9.3%	0.84	1.33
Happ	TOR	ARI	261.2	3.54	4.10	1.23	30.8%	19.4%	6.6%	0.96	1.24
Johnson	SDP	BAL	57.1	5.02	5.02	1.55	20.0%	18.0%	10.6%	2.83	0.64
Jimenez	BAL	SDP	249	4.95	4.19	1.53	27.8%	20.3%	9.5%	1.01	1.72
Samardzija	SFG	PIT	308.2	4.40	4.12	1.24	60.0%	18.5%	5.4%	1.14	1.09
Liriano	PIT	SFG	260	3.84	3.78	1.32	12.5%	25.1%	10.5%	1.00	1.83
Iwakuma	SEA	DET	220	3.80	3.79	1.15	60.0%	20.0%	4.6%	1.31	1.32
Fulmer	DET	SEA	59.1	2.43	4.04	1.18		23.4%	9.4%	0.91	1.44
Quintana	CWS	BOS	298.2	3.13	3.61	1.21	50.0%	21.5%	5.1%	0.63	1.42
Rodriguez	BOS	CWS	142.1	4.30	4.39	1.33		17.9%	7.5%	1.20	1.14
Archer	TBR	CLE	298	3.62	3.27	1.22	55.0%	28.5%	8.3%	1.03	1.35
Bauer	CLE	TBR	251.1	4.23	4.16	1.29	38.5%	22.5%	9.9%	1.04	1.07
Straily	CIN	TEX	95.1	3.97	4.58	1.24	14.3%	20.6%	10.7%	1.04	0.93
Hamels	TEX	CIN	303	3.42	3.60	1.20	58.8%	24.0%	7.7%	1.10	1.59
Morgan	PHI	MIN	137	5.26	4.66	1.35		15.9%	5.1%	1.71	0.69
Gibson	MIN	PHI	227.1	4.16	4.29	1.33	52.6%	16.7%	8.3%	0.83	1.98
Ross	WAS	LAD	154.1	3.38	3.90	1.14		21.2%	7.1%	0.82	1.45
Urias	LAD	WAS	22	4.50	3.25	1.50		29.9%	8.3%	1.64	1.32

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Noah Syndergaard NYM (KC) – I wouldn’t really be concerned about his strikeout rate against peak Royals, but the fact that they’re 19th in K% against righties this year only makes him more appealing. They are also 29th in ISO against righties. Their best bet is to nickel-and-dime a pitcher. Good luck with that, Thor hasn’t allowed more than seven hits in a start all year.

Jake Arrieta CHC (STL) – He’s scored fewer than 10 points at DraftKings just once this year: May 25th at St. Louis. I’m unmoved by that. If anything, I think he’s more likely to smash them as an answer to that outing (5 IP/4 ER) as opposed to struggle again. For his career, he has a 2.09 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 60.3 IP with 64 Ks. All 10 starts are with the Cubs dating back to 2013.

Cole Hamels TEX (CIN) – Hamels has been a bit over his head with that 2.88 ERA thanks in large part to a 1.5 HR/9. His walk rate has jumped from 2.5 to 3.5, but that’s been mitigated by a drop in hits, so it’s really the homers that put the ERA in peril if they continue. He finished May allowing 8 HRs in 25 IP (2.9 HR/9) with three multi-homer outings, but he’s allowed just 3 HRs in 28.7 IP so far this month (0.9). He has walked 2+ batters in each of his last seven, but the Reds have the 5th-lowest walk rate against lefties this year.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Jeff Samardzija SF (at PIT) – While his strikeout rate is worse on the road, the rest of his profile holds up very well away from AT&T Park (3.18 ERA, 1.04 WHIP). It’s particularly impressive considering he has nearly 2x as many innings on the road (62.3 vs. 32.3 at home). He catches the Pirates in a swoon with just 3.3 runs per game this month and does so on the heels of a rebound effort. After three straight bad starts, he threw a complete game in Tampa Bay (1 ER, 4 H). Samardzija’s strikeout rate is only up modestly from last year’s 6.9 at just 7.1, but the improvements everywhere else have put him back in play on the DFS landscape.

Michael Fulmer DET (SEA) – It’s almost as if we can’t judge a rookie arm after four starts, especially when all four are on the road. Fulmer started his career with a 6.52 ERA in 19.3 IP, but in the last calendar he is easily baseball’s best pitcher with a 0.27 ERA in 33 IP. Another guy going today is 2nd at 0.87 (more on who that is later). His 33.3 scoreless inning streak was broken his last time out, but he still only allowed 1 ER in 5.7 IP against the Royals. If there’s been a flaw – at least from a DFS standpoint – it’s been the modest strikeout totals with five or fewer in four of the last five starts, but he still has a healthy 11% swinging strike rate in those starts so the punchouts will be there over the long haul.

Matt Shoemaker LAA (at HOU) – Shoemaker isn’t the guy with the 0.87 ERA in the last month, but his 2.19 in the same span has been fantastic. More importantly, he has a 10.5 K/9 and 0.5 BB/9 in 37 innings over that time. The Astros are on the rise, but they are a strikeout-heavy team sitting third with a 25% mark against righties this year. In fact, Shoemaker decimated them in the midst of this run with an 8.3 IP/2 ER gem on May 27th that included 11 strikeouts. In the last month, Shoemaker’s 18% swinging strike rate is baseball’s best. Yes, even better than Kershaw (17%) and Scherzer (15%) who sit second and third. That devastating splitter has been driving Shoemaker’s success, yielding strikeouts and stifling homers. I believe.

Danny Duffy KC (at NYM) – You know who sits fourth in swinging strike rate over the last month? Jered Weaver! No, I’m just kidding. It’s Duffy at 15% (he and Scherzer are separated by 0.3%). A big part of Duffy’s success has been a spike in velocity as he sits fifth in this same timeframe with an average of 95.2 MPH. Homers have been an issue since joining the rotation (2.0 HR/9 in 36 IP), but everything else is on point: 3.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 42 Ks, and 6.0 K:BB ratio. The Mets have a league-high 25% strikeout rate against lefties and while they have been more of a home run team this year, that has come against righties. Their 19 homers against southpaws rank 22nd in the league.

CC Sabathia NYY (COL) – The Rockies often get off to a decent on the road because the Coors Effect takes a little while to kick in. Since May 1st, the Rockies have a league-worst .516 OPS on the road against lefties, 99 points worse than the 29th-place Twins. The crappy version of Sabathia from the last couple of years could handle the Rockies when they’re hitting like this; the stud version we’ve seen emerge this year should decimate them.

Sabathia’s new approach has seen him go away from a weak four-seamer in favor of a strong cutter and no longer give in to hitters when behind in the count. He’s been willing to walk more guys in exchange for improvements everywhere else. He’s allowing nearly three fewer hits per nine, his home run rate is FIVE times lower than last year going from 1.5 to 0.3 HR/9, and his strikeouts are even up slightly at 7.7 per nine. He’s certainly running hot and I’m sure the 81% LOB and 3% HR/FB rates will come back to earth, but a lot of what he’s doing is very believable. He’s inducing a ton of soft contact, a lot of the flyballs he does allow are pop-ups (which contributes to that 3% HR/FB and makes it less fluky), and his 23% hard contact rate is the lowest since 2011. He allowed 3 ER in each of his four April starts; he’s allowed just 4 ER in 44 IP since then.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Gant	0.360	4.26			0.260	0.695	0.311	3.75	0.241	0.03	24.2%
Conley	0.345	5.47	0.306	3.49	0.228	0.618	0.308	3.83	0.25	0.01	21.4%
Gray	0.319	4.41	0.331	5.40	0.247	0.729	0.336	3.57	0.264	0.00	24.7%
Sabathia	0.259	3.89	0.340	4.05	0.254	0.701	0.308	4.28	0.265	0.00	19.3%
Duffy	0.252	2.04	0.337	4.29	0.242	0.716	0.295	4.25	0.251	0.00	20.5%
Syndergaard	0.293	3.16	0.242	2.42	0.268	0.734	0.292	2.69	0.221	0.01	29.1%
Shoemaker	0.309	4.87	0.333	4.00	0.246	0.740	0.299	4.17	0.258	0.01	21.9%
McCullers	0.274	3.33	0.328	3.61	0.253	0.715	0.313	3.18	0.236	0.01	25.5%
Wacha	0.287	3.48	0.312	3.93	0.248	0.738	0.287	3.76	0.242	0.00	20.1%
Arrieta	0.219	1.38	0.230	2.09	0.265	0.759	0.244	2.38	0.181	0.01	27.3%
Guerra	0.285	3.25	0.334	4.70	0.249	0.699	0.280	4.07	0.242	0.02	20.1%
Mengden					0.254	0.713	0.250	4.80	0.217	0.12	23.1%
Ray	0.294	2.70	0.341	4.32	0.266	0.789	0.327	3.70	0.259	0.01	23.0%
Happ	0.292	2.44	0.307	3.86	0.268	0.773	0.291	3.80	0.25	0.00	19.4%
Johnson	0.378	5.02	0.410	5.02	0.258	0.766	0.270	7.07	0.273	0.00	18.0%
Jimenez	0.342	5.41	0.342	4.50	0.239	0.676	0.334	4.21	0.277	0.00	20.3%
Samardzija	0.344	5.41	0.292	3.49	0.264	0.735	0.295	4.02	0.26	0.00	18.5%
Liriano	0.289	3.59	0.308	3.91	0.265	0.713	0.294	3.88	0.231	0.01	25.1%
Iwakuma	0.323	3.73	0.289	3.87	0.270	0.746	0.281	4.02	0.249	0.01	20.0%
Fulmer	0.258	1.09	0.304	3.38	0.248	0.737	0.263	3.79	0.215	0.02	23.4%
Quintana	0.259	3.21	0.313	3.11	0.273	0.766	0.321	3.00	0.26	0.00	21.5%
Rodriguez	0.338	4.68	0.314	4.19	0.244	0.667	0.287	4.38	0.255	0.01	17.9%
Archer	0.281	3.49	0.301	3.77	0.250	0.724	0.303	3.30	0.229	0.01	28.5%
Bauer	0.303	3.93	0.312	4.51	0.243	0.708	0.281	4.09	0.232	0.00	22.5%
Straily	0.301	4.70	0.296	3.09	0.258	0.740	0.246	4.43	0.212	0.01	20.6%
Hamels	0.285	2.08	0.303	3.78	0.250	0.720	0.284	3.87	0.232	0.01	24.0%
Morgan	0.319	4.15	0.361	5.57	0.253	0.719	0.298	5.04	0.28	0.00	15.9%
Gibson	0.320	4.70	0.301	3.62	0.241	0.675	0.290	4.08	0.253	0.00	16.7%
Ross	0.346	3.53	0.224	3.27	0.242	0.720	0.270	3.55	0.225	0.01	21.2%
Urias			0.363	4.91	0.266	0.775	0.375	3.95	0.281	0.06	29.9%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Lance McCullers HOU (LAA) – His stuff has been filthy through seven starts as evidenced by his 11.2 K/9 and 60% groundball rate, but he’s struggled to regularly command it at all with a disgusting 5.8 BB/9 in the 40.3 innings of work. He has walked at least three in each of the seven starts and it’s not like he’s trading hits for walks as he’s still toting a 9.4 H/9. You may be surprised to learn that the Angels offense is pretty good against righties. Or maybe you’re not because any team with Mike Trout can’t be that bad. They sit 12th in wRC+ at 98 and have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball at just 16%.

Chris Archer TB (at CLE) – It’s been a tough season so far for Archer. His walk rate is up 1.1 and he’s doubled his homer rate to an ugly 1.6 HR/9 so despite an AL-best 10.8 K/9, his ERA and WHIP combo is a hideous 4.60/1.44. He allowed 3+ ER just 12 times in 34 starts last year (35%). He’s done so in 8 of his 15 so far this year (53%). He’s been somewhat better lately, but it’s a low bar to clear. He went 6+ IP in just three of his first eight starts, but has done so in six of his last seven. He still can’t seem to avoid having at least one bad inning per outing. That’s what walks will do to a pitcher. They trim your margin for error so much that even his big strikeout rate can’t compensate. I just can’t see a good reason for investing here. I wouldn’t stack against him, so he avoids the Fold tier, but it’s a firm pass.

Jon Gray COL (at NYY) – I didn’t feel comfortable with Chad Bettis in Yankee Stadium because he’d been bad both home and away, but Gray has been better on the road. His 4.17 ERA on the road isn’t GREAT, but the 1.12 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, and 3.4 K:BB ratio all point to a better ERA. He’s allowed 17 ER on the road, 9 of which came at St. Louis in his worst start of the season. He hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any of his other five road starts. The upside is massive with him.

Joe Ross WAS (at LAD) – Ross is quietly having a really strong season. He’s allowed more than 3 ER just twice all year and has basically emulated all the strong skills we saw in his call-up last year. His strikeouts have started to come up lately, too. He fanned more than 5 just once in his first seven starts, but he’s done so three times in his last six, totaling 35 in 36.7 IP. I like him best as an SP2 at outlets that use such a setup.

Adam Conley MIA (ATL) – Conley’s 3.94 ERA is far from great, but the 26-year old southpaw has been more good than bad. He’s allowed 2 or fewer ER in half of his 14 starts (0-1 ER in six of those) and only twice allowed more than 4 ER. He has 6+ strikeouts in six starts, but also 4 or fewer in six other starts. He wasn’t great in his only start against Atlanta so far this year (4.3 IP/2 ER), but they are SO bad against lefties that I’m not afraid to go back to the well. They sit 29th in wRC+ at 60 (Philly is at 59, no one else is below 80) and their .081 ISO is comically bad and actually 17 points worse than the Phillies.

Daniel Mengden OAK (MIL) – The Brewers bring their league-high 26% strikeout rate against lefties into Oakland facing the 23-year old rookie who has been solid in two starts so far. He has a solid four-pitch mix and a delivery conducive to deception that has yielded 12 strikeouts in his 12 innings of work. He wasn’t a huge prospect coming up, but garnered attention with a fast start that saw him post a 0.78 ERA in 23 IP at Double-A and then a 1.39 in 45.3 IP at Triple-A prior to his call-up. His price is no doubt the most appealing aspect of his profile right now, as he allows you to more comfortably afford Thor or Arrieta while also giving you some upside against a weaker offense.

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Michael Wacha STL (at CHC) – I thought he was injured after an ugly May (6.75 ERA), but he’s had back-to-back gems that hold up as two of his best all season. And yet despite that, I’m still feeling good about throwing him in Wrigley.

Julio Urias LAD (WAS) – He’s been strong in his last three starts, but he hasn’t topped 86 pitches. His ceiling is too low for DFS right now.

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