FantasyDraft NFL DFS Picks - Expert Survey: Week 3

Want to know who Notorious is definitely paying up for in NFL DFS this week? Wondering which value play STLCardinals84 is eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy football experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup building decisions for this week’s main slate contests.

NFL Week 3 (Main Slate)

Who is your favorite player for cash games?

Notorious: Dalvin Cook
STLCardinals84: Dalvin Cook
squirrelpatrol: Christian McCaffrey
MrTuttle: Keenan Allen
meansy53: Keenan Allen
Stevietpfl: Keenan Allen

Who is your favorite player for tournaments?

Notorious: Sammy Watkins
STLCardinals84: Ezekiel Elliott
squirrelpatrol: Lamar Jackson
MrTuttle: David Johnson
meansy53: Christian McCaffrey
Stevietpfl: Christian McCaffrey

Who is your favorite salary saver for cash games?

Notorious: Mark Andrews
STLCardinals84: Nelson Agholor
squirrelpatrol: Nelson Agholor
MrTuttle: Nelson Agholor
meansy53: Nelson Agholor
Stevietpfl: Nelson Agholor

Who is your favorite salary saver for tournaments?

Notorious: Will Fuller
STLCardinals84: O.J. Howard
squirrelpatrol: Marquise Brown
MrTuttle: Larry Fitzgerald
meansy53: Marquise Brown
Stevietpfl: Raheem Mostert

Which low-priced chalk player are you most likely to have little to no exposure to?

Notorious: Daniel Jones
STLCardinals84: Marlon Mack
squirrelpatrol: Kyle Allen
MrTuttle: Emmanuel Sanders
meansy53: Daniel Jones
Stevietpfl: Daniel Jones

Which high-priced player will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?

Notorious: Amari Cooper
STLCardinals84: Michael Thomas
squirrelpatrol: Saquon Barkley
MrTuttle: DeAndre Hopkins
meansy53: Alvin Kamara
Stevietpfl: Michael Thomas

Which player are you most afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?

Notorious: Amari Cooper
STLCardinals84: Davante Adams
squirrelpatrol: Kyle Allen
MrTuttle: Alvin Kamara
meansy53: Davante Adams
Stevietpfl: Alvin Kamara

Which skill position players (if any) are you targeting versus an elite defense?

Notorious: Travis Kelce
STLCardinals84: Travis Kelce
squirrelpatrol: Le’Veon Bell
MrTuttle: Travis Kelce
meansy53: Travis Kelce
Stevietpfl: Phillip Lindsay

Which NFL team are you targeting players from the most?

Notorious: ARI
STLCardinals84: DAL
squirrelpatrol: BAL
MrTuttle: DAL
meansy53: DAL
Stevietpfl: DAL

Which NFL team are you looking to avoid most?

Notorious: MIA
STLCardinals84: CIN
squirrelpatrol: MIA
MrTuttle: MIA
meansy53: MIA
Stevietpfl: MIA

What’s the best position to spend up on this week?

Notorious: RB
STLCardinals84: RB
squirrelpatrol: QB
MrTuttle: RB
meansy53: RB
Stevietpfl: RB

What’s the best position to save salary on this week?

Notorious: TE
STLCardinals84: WR
squirrelpatrol: WR
MrTuttle: WR
meansy53: WR
Stevietpfl: WR

Which game has sneaky shootout potential this week?

Notorious: CAR/ARI
STLCardinals84: HOU/LAC
squirrelpatrol: DEN/GB
MrTuttle: CIN/BUF
meansy53: CAR/ARI
Stevietpfl: NYG/TB

Which position will you have the most exposure to in FLEX?

Notorious: RB
STLCardinals84: RB
squirrelpatrol: WR
MrTuttle: RB
meansy53: RB
Stevietpfl: WR

Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?

Notorious: We often think of Keenan Allen as being more of a possession receiver, but he leads the NFL in air yards this season with 329. He also has 25 targets, 16 receptions, 221 yards, and a touchdown. He’s my top projected receiver for Week 3 and will likely be under-owned yet again.

STLCardinals84: In what appears to be one of the most lopsided slates of all time, nine of the 13 main slate games have initial point spreads of six points or higher. This includes two games with spreads of 20+ points, which is unheard of in the NFL. Only four games have spreads of five points or less. Hello, blowouts!

squirrelpatrol: This is the first week since 1987 that has featured two games with point spreads of 20 points or higher, and even in 1987 that was the result of league imbalance caused by the strike. With some teams openly tanking , it will be interesting to see effect on the league as the season goes on. Defenses playing against certain opponents could become consistently high-scoring, even though defense has been a traditionally difficult position to project.

MrTuttle: Panthers’ SCB Javien Elliott has allowed a reception every time he’s been targeted this season (6). In limited playing time (710 snaps), Elliott has allowed an 89.3% reception rate since 2016.

meansy53: Philip Rivers has attempted 70 passes through the first two games. Keenan Allen (25) and Austin Ekeler (13) have combined for over half of the market share of targets. Ekeler has also gotten all three carries inside the five-yard line and five of the seven carries inside the ten-yard line.

Stevietpfl: Joe Flacco has thrown the ball 81 times in two games. Emmanuel Sanders has 20 targets on the season, and leads the NFL with seven redzone targets.

What is your favorite correlation and why?

Notorious: BAL/KC game stack – The common build this week will be to spend up at running back, while spending down at the other positions. This is a solid build for cash games, but we can gain serious leverage by taking a different roster construction in tournaments. The Ravens and Chiefs game has a total of 55 points and features two of the best offenses in football. Neither team has been particularly effective with their running backs, so they should both air it out. I will build a number of different stacks for this game, including ones with Lamar Jackson and others with Patrick Mahomes. As far as pass catchers go, my favorites from Baltimore are Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, while my favorites from Kansas City are Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins.

STLCardinals84: Ezekiel Elliott + Dallas Defense – At this point, it’s almost foolish to ignore whoever is playing the Dolphins. This is a turnover prone team that checks in as a 21 point underdog on the road in Dallas. The Cowboys have a solid, if unspectacular, defense — but that’s generally enough to get the job done against what could be one of the worst teams of the 21st century. That’s not even hyperbole at this point, as the Dolphins have been outscored 102-10 in their two games. Expect a heavy dose of Ezekiel Elliott in this one, and I expect him to put up at least 125 yards and a pair of scores. Combine that with the Dallas defense, and you have a correlation play with elite upside.

squirrelpatrol: Marquise Brown and Lamar Jackson. Jackson hasn’t scored less than 16 points since becoming the Ravens starter in week 11 last season and is the leading fantasy scorer this season. Brown, meanwhile, has put up 12 receptions for 233 yards and two TDs over his first two pro games. Baltimore should pass more than usual this game trying to keep up with the Chiefs, which could lead to a big day for both players.

MrTuttle: Kyler Murray + Larry Fitzgerald + Christian McCaffrey – Take a look at my ‘Top Contrarian Play’ answer for an in-depth explanation of why I love Kyler – and more specifically Larry Fitzgerald – this week. As for McCaffrey, the already workhorse RB should be relied upon even more heavily with Cam Newton unlikely to suit up this week. Carolina will be playing significantly up in pace which will lead to increased volume for their offense. Additionally, the matchup is good as the Cardinals rank below average in both pass-defense DVOA (24th) and rush-defense DVOA (18th).

meansy53: Philip Rivers, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler – As I noted above, the opportunities in this offense are extremely condensed around Allen and Ekeler. And the best part is that these guys are not priced for all of that opportunity, as both remain affordable. With Ekeler’s involvement in the passing game, I have no problem throwing all three of these guys into a lineup together. With the Chargers having a respectable 25+ team total, you’d have to think that these guys are very likely to be responsible for the bulk of their scoring.

Stevietpfl: Jameis Winston, Chris Godwin, Evan Engram – I love jumping on players when the whole industry is down on them, and that’s exactly what’s happening with Winston right now. Is he the best QB in the world? No, but he has the upside to win you a tournament. The Giants have allowed the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks and wide receivers in the first two games this season. Godwin had 36% target share in Week 2, and even though I like Evans, I’ll be using more of Godwin in this stack. I will be mixing in some Evans as well. With Daniel Jones making his first start, I think we see him look at his talented tight end a lot in this game. Engram leads the team with a 24.7% target share, and he’s one of my favorite plays on the slate.

Who’s your top contrarian play on the board and why?

Notorious: Will Fuller – He has only connected with Deshaun Watson on one long ball this season, but has already racked up 243 air yards in the first two games. He has basically been an every-down player, even with the return of Keke Coutee in Week 2. The Chargers aren’t a great matchup on paper, but the Texans are underdogs in this one. They didn’t need to air it out much against the Jaguars given the fact that they were playing from ahead. I expect Casey Hayward to shadow Nuke Hopkins, which could open the door for Fuller downfield. He has slate-breaking upside at a cheap price point and low ownership.

STLCardinals84: Mike Evans – Yes, the narrative is out there that Chris Godwin is taking over as the top wide receiver in Tampa Bay. However, recency bias is definitely a thing. Godwin’s price is approaching Evans’ price in DFS right now, and on some sites Godwin is now more expensive than his teammate. There are still going to be weeks where Evans goes off, and now you are getting him at lower ownership combined with a cheaper price tag. This is the time to buy low with the feeble Giants on the docket. As a side note, you could apply similar logic to O.J. Howard if you want to use him instead.

squirrelpatrol: Le’Veon Bell – I don’t expect the Jets will put up a lot of points in this game as 22-point underdogs with an implied point total around 11, playing behind Luke Falk. But in similar circumstances on Monday, Bell still managed to put up 10 receptions and 129 total yards even though the Jets only scored 3 points. If the Jets hope to keep this game close, they’ll likely have to do it by shortening the game by running Bell early and often. And if they fall behind, they’ll likely try to catch up – by passing to Bell.

MrTuttle: Larry Fitzgerald – Things we expected when Kliff Kingsbury took over as the Cardinals Head Coach – fast play and a lot of throwing. While Kingsbury has disappointed in the Red Zone by settling for FGs, he’s met our expectations in terms of pace of play (Cardinals rank second in situation neutral pace of play) and passing volume (Kyler leads the league with 94 pass attempts). Larry Fitzgerald has been a direct beneficiary of the coaching change as he ranks sixth in the league in Air Yards (273) and is averaging 12 targets per game. Matchup wise, we couldn’t ask for much more as Fitz will avoid Panthers top CB James Bradberry by lining up in the slot against Javien Elliott. The 6’3” 218 lbs Fitzgerald will have a massive size advantage on the 5’11” 176 lbs Elliott who has allowed a reception every time he’s been targeted (6) this season.

meansy53: Marquise Brown – After playing only 18% of snaps in Week 1 (and dropping a ho-hum 4/147/2), Brown was up to 64% of snaps in Week 2. Naturally, the targets increased as well, from 5 in Week 1 to a massive 13 in Week 2. With his type of ceiling at his mid-tier price tag, I love him as a standalone play or as a part of Ravens/game stacks. He is projected for less than 5% ownership at the time I am writing this.

Stevietpfl: Raheem Mostert – I hate that they used three running backs last week, but I think that’s going to scare people off of this situation. Mostert did much better in both the running game and the passing game, not to mention he was a much better pass blocker. He played 32 of 70 snaps, which isn’t ideal, but again, I’m attacking the upside at the low price point. I’m not expecting 171 yards on 16 touches again, but I’m not saying it would shock me either.

Who’s your top overall play on the board and why?

Notorious: Dalvin Cook – His price has come up across the industry, but rightly so after another big game. We know the Vikings want to run the ball and they have proven that in the first two weeks. They have a total of 42 pass attempts and lead the NFL in run play percentage. Cook has played on 70% of the snaps, he has 45 carries, and he has three targets. He’s going to be involved regardless of the score of the game and he’ll get all of the goal line work. The icing on the cake is a matchup against the Raiders, who may have shown their best effort of the seaosn already.

STLCardinals84: Dalvin Cook – He should be more expensive on every site right now. The Vikings might surpass the Seahawks as the most run-heavy team in football in 2019. Even though the Vikings fell behind 21-0 against the Packers last week, they did not go away from their game plan. Cook still ended up with 20 carries for 154 yards, and he is clearly going to be a workhorse for this team. A favorable matchup awaits this week, and Cook should be the anchor of cash game builds until his price rises more.

squirrelpatrol: Christian McCaffrey – With Cam Newton banged up, McCaffrey could be the Panthers entire offense against an Arizona team that wants to move the ball quickly. I like McCaffrey either way, but if the Panthers are forced to go with a back-up at QB, McCaffrey could pile up receptions on short throws.

MrTuttle: Ezekiel Elliott – I know this is the clear chalk answer but sometimes it makes sense to just take what’s given to us. After being eased back in Week 1, Elliott’s snap rate jumped to 71% in Week 2. Elliott handled 23-of-27 RB carries against the Redskins and caught both of his targets. Elliott’s role only figures to expand and it would be unsurprising if he’s able to parlay 25+ touches into 200+ yards and a couple of scores. The biggest threat to Elliott’s fantasy value is a blowout but realistically Zeke only needs to play three quarters to meet value on his expensive price tag.

meansy53: Keenan Allen – The floor/ceiling combo is just too good here for a guy with this much volume at a drastically discounted price tag. On top of that, Allen has one of the top Matchup Ratings in our WR/CB Matchup Chart. He is a focal point for me in all formats in Week 3.

Stevietpfl: Keenan Allen – It’s very rare that I will not write up a running back here, but I hope that speaks volumes to how much I like Allen in this matchup. After a 29.4% target share in Week 1, Allen had a 42.9% target share in Week 2. He was close to breaking 100 yards, and didn’t have a touchdown — Allen was so close to having a massive game, but it continues to show us his massive floor with his very high ceiling.

What is your hot take for the week?

Notorious: Will Fuller tops 150 yards and finds the endzone twice.

STLCardinals84: The HOU/LAC game goes for 60+ total points.

squirrelpatrol: At least two players on a millionaire-winning lineup this week will come from teams led by back-up (or third-string) QBs.

MrTuttle: Larry Fitzgerald tops 100 yards and snags two touchdowns.

meansy53: The CAR/ARI game goes for 60+ total points.

Stevietpfl: Jameis Winston throws for 4 touchdowns and 350 yards against the Giants.

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