From DFS to FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey: Wednesday, September 26th
Online sports betting is now a very real and completely legal process in New Jersey. As laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to succeed in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.
Today’s Plays
(Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Check back later for late game updates.
German Marquez at least 8 strikeouts (+140) (BS) 1 unit to win 2.4
Brewers -110 (FD) 1.1 units to win 2.1
Pirates/Cubs 8o (-112) (SH) 1.11 units to win 2.11
Tigers +128 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.28
Dodgers -112 (FD) 1.12 units to win 2.12
Rangers/Angels 8.5u (-108) (FD) 1.08 units to win 2.08
Padres 104 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.04
7 PM ET Update
We’re going to get done early today. Late lineups are in and three plays stand out to me.
Going back to the well with the Dodgers tonight as a much smaller favorite in Arizona. They are clearly the far better team and will open with Ross Stripling and then attack with a bullpen with a 2.96 FIP and 20.7 K-BB% over the last month. Zack Greinke has a 16.2 K%, 4.64 ERA and 4.42 FIP over the last month.
Andrew Heaney is a quality arm facing a Texas offense ill-equipped to do much damage against LHP and they get a significant park downgrade. The Angels are facing an inferior pitcher and bullpen, but Mike Trout is actually the only above average bat against LHP in the lineup. This entire lineup is two or three guys. There’s also a pitcher’s umpire in this game.
Going back to the well on this one too. Despite what happened last night, the Padres have the better lineup and bullpen than the Giants at this point and this is basically a bullpen game for both teams. Fairly significant reverse line movement in this game as well.
Dodgers -112 (FD) 1.12 units to win 2.12
Rangers/Angels 8.5u (-108) (FD) 1.08 units to win 2.08
Padres 104 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.04
6 PM ET Update
The first thing to say is that I tried to build a quick and dirty strikeout projector for the six pitchers that Stars had props on this morning and came up with
deGrom 7.9
Newcomb 5.6
Nova 3.8
Quintana 4.9
Pivetta 5.6
Marquez 9.1
As I suspected, only German Marquez exceeds his prop total of eight and this is our first play tonight.
The Red Sox have confirmed the B-squad for game two, but they still might score some runs in this spot and weather concerns could hamper outings for both Chris Sale and Jacob deGrom, making it an easy enough decision to bypass those two affairs.
In St Louis, the Brewers have won the first two of this series and can really just about cement their spot tonight. They have the superior bullpen and while Jhoulys Chacin has not shined in all his starts against St Louis this year, I really like his matchup more against a predominantly RH lineup than I do John Gant against one with some big LH bats. Both pitchers have some platoon issues, even if Gant’s are more apparent through contact numbers than actual wOBA.
Again, two pitchers with platoon splits. The Pirates have a couple of sneaky RHBs near the top that have handled LHP well in a small sample. The Cubs obviously have the LHBs to handle Ivan Nova. There’s also a hitter friendly umpire in this game.
Matt Boyd has a slightly better ERA and SIERA than Jake Odorizzi, but beats him by over 40 points of xwOBA. Bullpens are about a wash and while Detroit is conceived as the worst offense, the Twins have just two batters in the lineup above a 100 wRC+ and .320 xwOBA vs LHP this year: Joe Mauer and Tyler Austin. Some nice reverse line movement in this game support our theory here.
German Marquez at least 8 strikeouts (+140) (BS) 1 unit to win 2.4
Brewers -110 (FD) 1.1 units to win 2.1
Pirates/Cubs 8o (-112) (SH) 1.11 units to win 2.11
Tigers +128 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.28
Yesterday’s Results:
Tigers/Twins 9.5u (-112) (SH) 1.12 units to win 2.12 W +1
Cardinals -115 (SH) 1.15 units to win 2.15 L -1.15
Dodgers -225 (BS) FREE BET to win 2.22 units L -0
Max Scherzer at least 10 strikeouts +140 (BS) 1 unit to win 2.4 W +1.4
Two Team Parlay: Cardinals & Dodgers +173 (SH) 0.5 units to win 1.37 L -0.5
Rangers +136 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.36 L -1
Mariners -110 (SH) 1,1 units to win 2.1 W +1
Padres -107 (SH) 1.06 units to win 2.06 L -1.06
MLB
Day Total 3-5 -0.31 units
Grand Total 79-92-1 -4.40 units
Sides 41-55 -6.54 units
Totals 34-28-1 +3.29 units
Parlays 3-6 -1.62 units
Props 3-4 +0.5 units
NFL
Day Total
Grand Total 5-3 +2.74 units
Spread 2-0 +2 unit
Moneyline 2-0 +2.05 unit
Totals 1-1 -0.06 unit
Parlays 0-1 -1 unit
Props 0-1 -0.25 units
CFB
Day Total
Grand Total 4-4 -0.4 units
Spread 2-2 -0.2 units
Totals 2-2 -0.2 units
Yesterday’s Recap
Scherzer cut it close, gaining his 10th strikeout with 98 pitches in the seventh after a 10 pitch AB.
A 1-0 game in the eighth in Minnesota. They also brought the losing run to the plate in the eighth inning in a game with a 9.5 total. The point being, it’s ridiculous that even turned into a sweat.
Despite being down six fairly quickly, the Cardinals actually fell short of a couple of shots to come all the way back before being put away late in the game.
Matt Koch pitched 4.1 innings with five hits, three walks and a HR allowed. Struck out just two. The Dodgers scored just one run. On the other hand, Walker Buehler appeared to make a single mistake and was punished for it. The free play didn’t cost anything (aside from the accompanying parlay that died with the Cardinals anyway), this was a frustrating one. I believe that brings the record for favorites of -150 or more to either 0-3 or 0-4 now. The point is, zero wins.
The Rangers took an early 1-0 lead, but that was the complete extent of their offensive output.
The Mariners were down by several runs a couple of times and also one in the ninth with two outs, but just kept coming back, which kind of makes up for…
The Padres had the lead most of the way, but lost in extra-innings.
The damage feels much worse than the final number, most likely because there was very little actually being risked on the Dodgers. This is why I hate laying big numbers. Never mind that by the numbers, one can’t fathom how they lost that game. Sucking out with the Mariners was basically a wash for the beat with the Padres. It’s going to be an effort to finish the baseball season (including post-season) in profit.
Weather and Props
The early weather play was one of the few things that worked on Tuesday, so it goes without saying that it’s somewhere to look for an edge this morning. Unfortunately, outside of a few games with chance of a delay, there don’t seem to be any substantial weather impacts, especially not on the negative side for offense. A few parks, like Fenway, could see a slight bump, but weather and uncertain pitching plans don’t lean themselves to an early play with any confidence.
Today’s Odds Boost props and parlays:
Stars has one parlay on the Mets, Cubs and Twins (+360), which is something that goes immediately out the window if a Jacob deGrom game is likely to have a delay (as Kevin suggests it might). In the other two matchups, the plays would be on Jose Quinana (no) and Jake Odorizzi against Matt Boyd, which I can’t claim to immediately favor either.
The other parlay is on the Braves, Brewers, and Pirates (+1200), which is an amazing price and possibly something to consider.
Pitcher strikeout and earned run props are on the Braves & Mets, Pirates & Cubs, and Phillies & Rockies. Considering two of those games involve a lot of contact prone offenses, we could be playing some pitcher strikeout props in Colorado tonight. There’s absolutely no rush though, as those promotional odds remain stable throughout the day.
FanDuel has just posted their Daily Odds Boost prop and it’s on the Yankees to win by at least three runs (+200 from +150). Considering that Masahiro Tanaka is very boom or bust, this is a bit interesting, but I have no idea how to project this to happen at least one out of every three times.
There are some later afternoon games, but nothing immediately stands out among the pitching matchups. It’s unlikely there will be an early play, but there will be an earlier than usual update if so.
RotoGrinders has launced Sharp Side, a new sports betting app. Players can now track their plays with many more tools and features are to come.