From DFS to SugarHouse Sportsbook in New Jersey: Tuesday, September 25th
Online sports betting is now a very real and completely legal process in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to succeed in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.
Today’s Plays
(Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
That’s it for tonight.
Tigers/Twins 9.5u (-112) (SH) 1.12 units to win 2.12
Cardinals -115 (SH) 1.15 units to win 2.15
Dodgers -225 (BS) FREE BET to win 2.22 units
Max Scherzer at least 10 strikeouts +140 (BS) 1 unit to win 2.4
Two Team Parlay: Cardinals & Dodgers +173 (SH) 0.5 units to win 1.37
Rangers +136 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.36
Mariners -110 (SH) 1,1 units to win 2.1
Padres -107 (SH) 1.06 units to win 2.06
7:30 Update
I’m struggling a bit with three west coast games because I’m noticing reverse line movement in all three games and can see the cases supporting such in all three spots.
In LA, the Angels are a decent sized favorite over the Rangers. Yovani Gallardo has been bad, but Matt Shoemaker has struggled as well, while neither bullpen is really a strength. The Angels have the biggest offensive stars, but the Rangers might have the deeper lineup (seven of nine batters above a 100 wRC+ and at least a .180 ISO vs RHP this year). I have a small lean towards the over as well, but nine is fairly high for a west coast game. I can certainly see the reason sharps might think there’s value in the Rangers tonight.
Mike Leake and Brett Anderson are better real life pitchers than fantasy because they don’t pile up the strikeouts. The A’s have one of the more impressive hangover lineups we’ve seen after punching their WC ticket last night. They’re still fighting for a home game, but Khris Davis is out tonight. Even though the rest of the lineup is present, it would be reasonable to question what kind of condition they’re in.
Robbie Erlin has a higher strikeout rate, lower SIERA (by a full run) and lower xwOBA (by more than 50 points) than Chris Stratton. The Giants are in free fall and have lost five in a row. The Padres might be the better team right now and probably have an edge in most aspects of this particular game.
So the card ends up quite a bit larger than originally expected.
Rangers +136 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.36
Mariners -110 (SH) 1,1 units to win 2.1
Padres -107 (SH) 1.06 units to win 2.06
6:15 Update
Max Scherzer generally goes through the lineup three times. He has a 34.6 K% and has double digit strikeouts in 17 of 32 starts. The Marlins have a slightly higher than average strikeout rate (above 22%) on the road, vs RHP and over the last seven days. Tonight’s confirmed lineup has a 22.1 K% vs RHP this year as well. The price for at least 10 Ks from Scherzer on Stars is +140. Guess how many strikeouts Schezer is away from 300 for the first time in his career too.
Since it looks like it’s going to be a light night, I’m also adding a 1/2 unit parlay on the Cards and Dodgers.
One more update for west coast games after all lineups are out.
Max Scherzer at least 10 strikeouts +140 (BS) 1 unit to win 2.4
Two Team Parlay: Cardinals & Dodgers +173 (SH) 0.5 units to win 1.37
6 PM Update
There has been a pitching change in Minnesota. The Twins are now going with the bullpen entirely and even though it’s one of the worse bullpens in the league (5.02 FIP last 30 days), it doesn’t make much of a difference. In fact, the total has decreased to nine and it looks like the early play is working in our favor so far.
Weather and team motivations may keep things cautious today. It’s not so much the PPD that concerns me as much as losing a starter to a lengthy delay. And the most concerning teams are those with nothing to play for who are already in the post-season, like Cleveland, especially if there are weather issues. They’re most concerned with health and you never know when they’ll be pulling their starters.
One spot where they are definitely playing for something is in St Louis, though with three games separating them in the standings, it’s more important for the home team. I have not been much of a believer in Austin Gomber, who still has an ERA a run below estimators, but I’m just as pessimistic on Gio Gonzalez, despite pitching well last time out. Amazingly, via PlateIQ, both posted lineups are within five points of wOBA and ISO of each other against LHP this season, but consider that the Cardinals play in a more difficult run environment, which would make their numbers better. There’s no doubt that the Brewers have the far, far better bullpen, but Josh Hader threw 27 pitches last night (and struggled) which takes away their biggest weapon.
While that’s really the only spot I like among the non-late starts, both lineups are out in Arizona as well. I rarely employ large favorites and haven’t jumped on a single one above 200 yet. That might change tonight. I think the Dodgers are a bit light. Matt Koch did strike out seven of 16 Cubs in relief last time out, but has just a 14.1 K%, .409 xwOBA and 12.4% Barrels/BBE this season. While Koch’s season has been a dumpster fire, Walker Buehler actually is on fire (34.5 K%, .244 xwOBA last 30 days). Every single batter in the Dodger lineup is above a 115 wRC with at least a .200 ISO against RHP this season. EVERY SINGLE ONE!
FanDuel is offering a Mets/Dodgers parlay as their Daily Odds Boost +165, but I’m not big on the Mets tonight, who’s forecast is currently worst on the board as well. I do have a backup plan though. Stars has graced me with a free bet for helping them troubleshoot an issue with disappearing props. It’s actually a fairly generous bet a bit larger than my normal wager. I’m going to use this on the Dodgers tonight. Unfortunately, they do have the worst line for us on the Dodgers tonight, but it’s a free bet.
I’m going to comb through some individual pitcher props and be back with an update in less than an hour.
Cardinals -115 (SH) 1.15 units to win 2.15
Dodgers -225 (BS) FREE BET to win 2.22 units
Yesterday’s Results:
MLB
Blue Jays +165 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.65 L -1
Dodgers/Diamondbacks 7.5o (+104) 1 unit to win 2.04 W +1.04
NFL
Antonio Brown to score the first TD +1000 (FD) 0.25 units to win 2.75 units L -0.25
Steelers +105 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.05 W +1.05
Steelers/Bucs 54.5u (-107) 1.06 units to win 2.06 L – 1.06
MLB
Day Total 1-1 +0.04 units
Grand Total 76-87-1 -4.09 units
Sides 40-51 -4.33 units
Totals 33-28-1 +2.29 units
Parlays 3-5 -1.12 units
Props 2-4 -0.9 units
NFL
Day Total 1-2 -0.26
Grand Total 5-3 +2.74 units
Spread 2-0 +2 unit
Moneyline 2-0 +2.05 unit
Totals 1-1 -0.06 unit
Parlays 0-1 -1 unit
Props 0-1 -0.25 units
CFB
Day Total
Grand Total 4-4 -0.4 units
Spread 2-2 -0.2 units
Totals 2-2 -0.2 units
Yesterday’s Recap
Antonio Brown did score a touchdown, but it wasn’t the first touchdown. In fact, many players scored touchdowns. There were a lot of big plays and turnovers. The side was at least correct and the under actually turned into a bigger sweat than it should have been after a 40 point first half.
The Blue Jays quickly went down 4-0, but cut the lead to 4-3 and failed to capitalize on a bases loaded no out situation. That ended up the final score.
The Dodgers scored some late runs to push the total in Arizona in our favor.
On Standings and Weather
Standings aren’t something I often pay attention to as a DFS player. We’re usually more concerned with individual rather than team performance. This is different for sports betting. However, at this time of year, interests seem to align because standings are now relevant to DFS as well and perhaps even more important for sports betting.
Some people think that there’s an advantage to leaning towards teams and players that need to win to make the post-season at this point, but I’m more concerned about teams that have already locked up their tickets and have nothing to gain and everything to lose by continuing to push players to their limits.
This is most easily seen as soon as lineups are released. We can obviously see which key players are missing. However, it’s less obvious in terms of starting pitching.
Corey Kluber struck out 11 White Sox in seven four hit innings, but after presenting a lineup that did not include any of their top three bats, one could be justified for questioning the potential workload here.
The lineups themselves are opportunities to jump on sometimes. While one key difference between DFS and sports betting is that sports bettors don’t have to rush to construct lineups (or bets) before the first game locks or worry about being locked out of full contests, in this area, bettors need to act more quickly than DFS players before losing their advantage (line change).
Being responsible for more baseball content than just this piece right now, these opportunities are not something I can always catch in a timely manner. It’s easier when it’s one of the west coast lineups (think Cubs and Diamondbacks last week). But the process would be to notice the opportune lineup, then quickly log into up to four online sportsbooks to price shop before the line changes.
In the case of Cleveland last night, I still wasn’t backing Dylan Covey no matter what lineup Cleveland offered, but I’m certainly in need of a process that allows for capitalizing on these situations. Sometimes, they’re unknown. However, occasionally, they’re not much of a mystery. The A’s clinched a wild card spot last night. They’re still playing for that game to be at home, but a pretty good rule of thumb is that whenever you see champagne being splattered all over the locker room, there’s a pretty good chance some players will be missing from the lineup the next night.
It’s not like the books don’t know that too though. Currently Brett Anderson and Mike Leake are a pick’em in Seattle. The good news is that this is a west coast game, so if the A’s drop a complete mess of a lineup, we should be positioned to take advantage at that point.
The last thing to touch on is weather. I completely dropped the ball not realizing that the drastic drop in temperatures and potential winds that have arrived with it in many areas would be a factor (though we did catch a couple of totals on winds blowing out in Chicago last week). These are things we can know in the morning or early afternoon too. The total in Boston dropped a full run yesterday. The total in Chicago (AL) dropped more than that, although the latter was likely due to Cleveland lineup omissions again. Still, this was an area where an opportunity was missed even if we wanted no part of backing Covey.
Let’s attempt to be more vigilant by including an early look at Kevin’s forecast for the rest of the week. Unfortunately, it’s more a mess of rain and storms today, rather than surprisingly cold temperatures and winds blowing in.
Tonight’s First Play
The exception would be in Minnesota (“temps in Minny for gametime will be around 50 degrees”). Unfortunately, the starters appear to be Kohl Stewart and Spencer Turnbull, but the total is a hefty 9.5 with the vig higher on the under. As part of this experiment, let’s go ahead and throw that one in now. Since we’re taking the under, we’re not afraid of any potential lineup omissions and I don’t think any potential change in pitchers can actually hurt either. So, first play of the day is a weather play…
Tigers/Twins 9.5u (-112) (SH) 1.12 units to win 2.12
Last week, RotoGrinders launched Sharp Side, a new sports betting app. One of the earliest available features is the ability to track plays. Many more tools and features are to come.