MLB DFS Slate Preview: Saturday, April 29
Taylor Smith previews the Saturday, April 29th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We’ve only got 5 games on the main slates for Saturday, including another Diamondbacks-Rockies showdown at Coors Field. It’ll be easy to project the hitting chalk as a result, but we also have a couple of aces taking the mound elsewhere. Can we pair aces and still afford the good bats? Let’s take a deep dive into Saturday’s 5-game main slate.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- Last night was a messy one, but it looks like most of the weather issues will affect the afternoon games today. TB/CHW seems to be the sketchiest game of the main slate with a GREEN/YELLOW tag, but that’s not typically something to fear. We could see some light showers here, but there doesn’t seem to be anything putting the game at risk.
- ARI/COL has a straight GREEN with some light winds blowing in from center.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are more likely to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Aaron Judge missed last night’s game after leaving early on Thursday with a hip injury. Aaron Boone said the MRI on the hip showed “something,” but we don’t know the extent of the injury just yet. It sounds bad enough to likely keep Judge out of the lineup again tonight. Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Jake Bauers are projected to start in the Yankees’ outfield with Willie Calhoun DHing tonight.
- Yandy Diaz left last night’s game with a shoulder injury. He was replaced by Taylor Walls, whom we have projected to start in his place tonight. Diaz is day-to-day.
- J.D. Martinez went on the IL last night with lower back tightness. Will Smith was activated off the concussion IL in his place. Smith is projected to DH again tonight with Austin Barnes slated to catch Clayton Kershaw.
- Randal Grichuk hasn’t played all season because of a groin injury, but he’s expected to be activated off the IL for the Rockies at some point this weekend. Tonight’s game would seem to be as good a time as any, as the Rockies will face off against Arizona lefty Tommy Henry.
- Yonathan Daza missed a fourth straight game last night because of a hand injury, and he’s officially day-to-day. Brenton Doyle started in his spot last night.
- Tyler O’Neill was a late scratch ahead of last night’s game with back tightness of his own. We have him projected to return to the lineup tonight against Kershaw, but we shall see. Dylan Carlson drew the start in place of O’Neill last night.
- With Noah Davis on the mound for the Rockies, the Diamondbacks will project as the clear-cut top stack after their 9-run showing last night. Ownership should be absolutely massive on Arizona, but it’s difficult to argue to the contrary. Colorado should also get some attention against the hittable Tommy Henry. If you’re looking to go off the board, I have my eye on the Yankees against a familiar foe in Nathan Eovaldi.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- In terms of talent, Corbin Burnes and Clayton Kershaw are in a tier of their own tonight. Kershaw is doing Kershaw things (26.4% Ks, 4.1% walks, 3.31 SIERA), while Burnes is off to a rough start. Corbin’s K-rate is all the way down at just 19.5%, while his walk rate is pushing 9%. His velocity is down a little, but he’s also a little cheaper than Kersh on FanDuel as a result. Neither pitcher has an easy matchup (Burnes vs. LAA, Kershaw vs. STL), so maybe going a little cheaper is the way.
- Nathan Eovaldi ($8,500), Reid Detmers ($8,800), and Lance Lynn ($8,100) are here if we need savings. Eovaldi is another guy struggling with his form, but the Yankees without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton aren’t really the Yankees. If I’m going cheap, Eovaldi is a perfectly fine play. Detmers draws a Brewers offense striking out over 27% of the time against left-handed pitching, while Lynn gets the scariest matchup of the trio against Tampa Bay. If you need even more salary relief, going all the way down to Jhony Brito ($6,100) against the Rangers is viable in GPPs.
- The DBax hitters aren’t necessarily cheap on FanDuel, but they’re also not egregiously expensive. Noah Davis is the weakest pitcher on the board, and the right-hander comes with a traditional platoon split. That’ll make the Arizona lefties really stand out. Josh Rojas ($3,100), Ketel Marte ($3,500), and Corbin Carroll ($4,000) are the headliners from the left side, but I’m not scared enough by Davis to avoid Christian Walker ($3,500) from the right. Alek Thomas ($2,900) is a nice source of salary relief that’ll hold the platoon edge, as well.
- Tommy Henry isn’t much better. C.J. Cron ($3,400) and Kris Bryant ($3,800) will be close to auto-plays any time they happen to face a lefty at home. The Colorado lineup drops off a cliff from there, but Randal Grichuk is a nice source of power if he makes his season debut tonight. Ezequiel Tovar ($2,600) and Brenton Doyle ($2,500) are cheap, while I wouldn’t mind tossing Ryan McMahon or Charlie Blackmon into stacks lefty-lefty. Jurickson Profar ($3,200) is another obvious value that could hit leadoff.
- Kershaw ($10,500) is considerably more expensive than Burnes ($9,500) on DraftKings, which should make things interesting. The Cardinals have a reputation as a lefty-mashin’ lineup, but Kershaw isn’t an ordinary lefty. I’d still rather just take the savings and hope for the best with Burnes, especially given the discount. If Kershaw attracts more ownership as a result of Burnes’ underwhelming game logs, all the better.
- We have the same Eovaldi ($8,800), Lynn ($7,600), Detmers ($8,500) trio available on DK for savings. Lynn is the cheapest of the bunch. He still has a long leash, but it’s hard to ignore his woeful numbers to this point. The matchup against the Rays won’t make him a comfortable roster, but sometimes you have to do uncomfortable things in tournaments. As is the case on FanDuel, we can punt with Brito ($5,600) against a Rangers lineup missing Corey Seager and Mitch Garver.
- The Coors bats are still too cheap, which should lead to massive ownership. Josh Rojas ($5,700), Corbin Carroll ($5,600) and Ketel Marte ($5,500) are the only expensive bats, with Christian Walker ($4,100) and Alek Thomas ($3,200) standing out as stellar values.
- Luke Voit ($2,500) and Joey Wiemer ($2,100) are affordable sources of power to throw at Detmers. He’s a decent pitcher, but both of these guys bring some slug to the table.
- The White Sox will have to deal with the Rays’ vaunted bullpen tonight, but there’s some cheap stuff here, too. Andrew Vaughn is better than his $2,700 salary would indicate, while you can punt with Oscar Colas ($2,000), Lenyn Sosa ($2,000), Eloy Jimenez ($3,000), and Elvis Andrus ($2,300). If you’re paying up for Coors and pricey pitchers, I don’t hate the White Sox as a differentiator secondary stack.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!