MLB DFS Slate Preview: Saturday, May 13
Taylor Smith previews the Saturday, May 13th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Just 6 games on the main slates tonight, though we’ll once again have to deal with likely chalk at Coors Field. We do also have a couple of decent aces to pay up for, but things thin out very quickly on the pitching side. With so much sketchy pitching, we’ll have plenty of decent offense on this slate even outside of Colorado. How should we approach tonight’s 6-gamer on DraftKings and FanDuel?
I’m already seeing a bunch of SPs I’m loving and plenty of offenses I want exposure to, so let’s get to some MLB DFS picks and today’s news and notes!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- PIT/BAL looks like the diciest weather game on the main slate. Roth has this one tabbed YELLOW/ORANGE for the late start potential, but he seems to think the game likely plays after that.
- No rain in LA for Padres-Dodgers, but we do have decent winds blowing 10-15 mph out toward center, which should boost bats a bit.
- The Coors game is YELLOW with some scattered showers in the area, but Colorado is typically pretty good about playing through weather. As of now, this doesn’t sound like anything to worry about.
- CHW/HOU has winds blowing left to right across the field. There’s a chance SF/ARI will have the roof open, which would be a pretty big boost to bats with temps in the mid-90s in Phoenix this evening.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Ranger Suarez will be activated off the IL just in time to make his 2023 debut at Coors Field tonight. Suarez has missed the entire season to this point with an elbow injury, though he did make 3 rehab starts in the minors. The left-hander threw 5 innings in his last outing at Triple-A, so he should be able to give the Phillies some length here…unless he gets blasted, of course.
- The Astros said Michael Brantley will be shut down indefinitely with his shoulder injury, which is suboptimal considering he was on the verge of a return in Anaheim earlier in the week. Jose Altuve began a rehab assignment at Triple-A last night, though his return is still at least a few days away. Mauricio Dubon and Jose Abreu returned to the lineup last night, though Chas McCormick is still among the walking wounded with his back injury. Jake Meyers is projected to start in center once again in place of McCormick tonight against Dylan Cease in Chicago.
- Brandon Bielak will make his second start of the season for Houston with Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia down for the foreseeable future. Bielak threw 87 pitches last weekend against the Mariners, so he’s fairly stretched out.
- JT Realmuto is expected to be out of the Phillies’ lineup tonight after leaving last night’s game early with a finger injury. Garrett Stubbs, a lefty, will almost surely get the start behind the plate against Ryan Feltner. Brandon Marsh is also likely to get back in there against the right-hander after Daulton Guthrie drew the start in center on Friday. Bryson Stott is expected to start and hit leadoff in place of Josh Harrison at second, as well.
- Yoan Moncada returned to the lineup and went 0-4 after missing time with a back injury. Yasmani Grandal didn’t play last night as a result of a hamstring injury, and he’s officially day-to-day. We have Seby Zavala projected to draw a second straight start at catcher with Grandal banged up. Adam Haseley has been starting in the outfield with Eloy Jimenez on the IL.
- JD Martinez came off the injured list last night, and the Dodgers optioned Michael Busch in turn. James Outman and Jason Heyward should return to the outfield tonight against Joe Musgrove after Chris Taylor and Trayce Thompson started last night.
- Salvador Perez was scratched from the lineup yesterday with blurry vision, which sounds freaky. Freddy Fermin started in his place, though we do have Perez currently projected to return tonight.
- Matt Carpenter started at DH last night against Dustin May, but Nelson Cruz will get the start tonight against southpaw Julio Urias. The Padres are also likely to start White Sox legend Adam Engel in the outfield, which should send Trent Grisham to the bench. Austin Nola is also the projected starting catcher after Brent Sullivan did the job last night.
- Brandon Crawford is slated to come off the IL any day now after missing time with a calf injury, but the Giants don’t seem to be in a hurry. All Casey Schmitt has done as his replacement is hit .563 with a couple of home runs over his first 4 MLB appearances. Pavin Smith is projected to start for the DBax against Anthony DeSclafani.
- In shocking news, the Phillies’ 6.21 total is the highest on the slate. They’ll get the massive park upgrade going into Colorado, and Ryan Feltner ranks as the second-worst pitcher on the slate in terms of context-neutral ERA. The only pitcher worse than Feltner in that regard is Brandon Bielak, though the White Sox’ 4.36 total hardly jumps off the page. The Rockies (5.29) come in second to the Phillies here against the debuting Ranger Suarez. The Brewers (5.03) are the only other team projected to crack 5 runs, followed by the Dodgers (4.88) and Diamondbacks (4.52).
- Coors is the best spot for offense again, but the shorter slate means ownership will congregate here much more heavily than it did on last night’s 13-gamer. The KC/MIL game looks like a decent spot for value with Zack Greinke going up against Adrian Houser in a very underwhelming pitching matchup.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Zac Gallen checks in at $11,500 on FanDuel, which makes him the most expensive pitcher on the board by a $1,500 margin over Julio Urias. Gallen will be popular because he’s always popular, but it’s difficult to afford him with full Coors stacks. Urias’ matchup against the Padres isn’t ideal for strikeouts, so I’d rather get to Gallen against the Giants if I’m paying 5 figures for a pitcher on FD.
- Going the cheaper route isn’t the worst idea on this slate. Dylan Cease is having a rough season by his standards, but we are getting a discount ($9,200). We haven’t picked on the Astros much over the years, but Houston’s lineup right now isn’t at full strength. The bottom 4 hitters in the projected lineup (Pena, Julks, Meyers, Maldonado) all whiff at above-average clips, while guys like Dubon and Abreu have very little power. If Cease can throw strikes and keep the Alvarezes and Tuckers of the world from killing him, there’s a path to a good score here. Tyler Wells ($8,700 vs. PIT) is likely the next place I’d go if I’m trying to save some salary at pitcher.
- Bryce Harper ($4,100) predictably projects like a god against Feltner at Coors, and with good reason. For some reason, the rest of the Phillies are pretty cheap. Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber check in at just $3,300 apiece, while Stott ($3,200) is a fantastic value assuming he draws leadoff duty. Nick Castellanos ($3,900) is fine to pay for in your stacks, while Edmundo Sosa ($2,800) is another cheapie worth consideration in all formats.
- The Rockies are bad and Suarez is a solid groundball pitcher, so we’ll presumably see a lot less ownership on the Colorado side of this game. The flyball RHBs profile best in this matchup, so CJ Cron ($3,200) and Kris Bryant ($3,300) look like cornerstones on this slate. Randal Grichuk ($3,600) is another solid power bat in terrific form to start the season, but most of the rest of the Rockies’ lineup is full of groundball guys.
- We’ll see how the Brewers’ ownership stacks up against Greinke. He’s far past his prime, but he’s still not a full gas can thanks to his excellent control. Right-handed hitters have enjoyed most of the success against him over the years, which puts Willy Adames ($3,000), Tyrone Taylor ($2,500), and Brian Anderson ($2,800) on my radar as a mini-stack.
- The Dodgers are more expensive than the Phillies on aggregate, so I’d expect significantly lower ownership on LA here against the respectable Joe Musgrove. This will be Musgrove’s second straight start against them, which generally favors the bats. Mookie Betts ($3,500) and Freddie Freeman ($3,600) look a little too cheap on FanDuel, but you’ll have to pay for Will Smith ($4,500) and Max Muncy ($4,100). JD Martinez ($3,000) is a viable one-off value if you’re not crazy about the full stack. On a related note, Musgrove to record less than 5 strikeouts stands out as a solid value play on Underdog today.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Gallen ($10,500) and Urias ($10,000) are again your headliners on DraftKings. The weak pitching slate is enough to keep Julio in my player pool for large-field tournaments, but I’m much more interested in attacking the higher-strikeout Giants with Gallen if I’m paying up. Cease ($8,800) also comes at a decent discount over here, though for cash games I’d take the safer matchup with Wells ($8,100) at home against Pittsburgh. Cease is a fantastic tournament play, however.
- On the pitching side, that’s really all there is. I have zero interest in overpaying for DeSclafani ($8,400) in a tough matchup at Arizona, while I’ll pass on Musgrove ($7,800) in LA despite the discount.
- DK did a pretty good job of pricing up the likes of Harper ($5,700), Turner ($5,200), Schwarber ($5,100), and Castellanos ($4,900). The stack does get cheaper with Realmuto expected to sit, while Sosa ($2,700) is a terrific value on this site, as well. It’s hard to go double-cheap at pitching tonight due to the lack of options, which means you’ll have to do some gross things in order to cram all of the high-end Phillies into the same stack.
- Bryant ($5,300) and Cron ($4,800) aren’t as cheap on DK as they are on FD, either. Tyrone Taylor ($2,200), Dominic Fletcher ($2,300), Miguel Vargas ($2,600), Ezequiel Tovar ($2,900), and Jesse Winker ($2,800) are some of the better salary-savers on the DK side. Milwaukee looks like the best value stack on the board as things drop off from a salary standpoint once you get past the Adames/Tellez/Yelich trio.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!