MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 9/28/22
Another big twelve game slate with no rain concerns and another chance to incorrectly predict Aaron Judge homering on the first pitch of the game to tie the record.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
The East coast games (plus COL/SFG) will see temps in the 60s and 50s with PHI/CHC seeing the most wind at 10mph blowing in from left while OAK/LAA & LAD/SDP will be in the 70s. NYY/TOR, STL/MIL, ARI/HOU, and TEX/SEA are today’s dome games.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for PHI/CHC are -31.6% while total runs for MIA/NYM are -7.2%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Yordan Alvarez left yesterday with ankle soreness and Dusty Baker has already said he’ll “hopefully be ready in a couple days” so don’t plan on using him today along with Jose Altuve and Yuli Gurriel who are getting days off. Garrett Cooper broke his pinkie and will go on the IL and Ramon Urias will head to the IL after leaving yesterday with right knee discomfort. Corey Seager was hit in the forearm yesterday and had a pretty big bruise so he’ll get today off and if you need a min-price catcher on DK today Logan O’Hoppe will make his MLB debut for the Angels today while Mike Ford was DFA’d. The Cardinals clinched a playoff spot yesterday and will rest Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Arenado, Albert Pujols, and Tommy Edman while the Yankees are also resting some key players with Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa all getting days off.
There are a lot of great pitchers going today so only a few offenses are on my stack radar. The Braves, Orioles, Red Sox, and Angels are my top stacks and where I will be looking for most of my offense in cash games as well. I also like the Yankees against a struggling Mitch White while the Giants, Twins and Dodgers are stacks I’d take a shot on for GPPs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with a few righty Orioles against the lefty Hill who has allowed 4+ ER in four of his last five starts. Ryan Mountcastle ($2,700) is my top value play of the day while Anthony Santander ($3,000), Austin Hays ($2,600), Ryan McKenna ($2,000), and Jesus Aguilar ($2,400) are my next favorite BAL bats and make for a great cheap stack.
Dean Kremer is coming off the best start of his career with a CGSO of the Astros but that’s not going to deter me from targeting Red Sox bats as Kremer is still a career 4.53 ERA pitcher with a 3.47 road ERA this season and has allowed a .282 batting average in road starts. Tommy Pham ($3,000), Alex Verdugo ($2,700), JD Martinez ($2,800), and Triston Casas ($2,600) are a great cheap stack while Rafael Devers ($3,800) is a fine spend up.
The Braves have the highest team total currently just over 5 runs so I like getting a piece of their offense in cash games with Matt Olson ($3,300) my favorite play for the price while Travis d’Arnaud ($2,900) and Eddie Rosario ($2,100) are cheaper options to consider. The Yankees are another offense I like today that could go under-owned so consider Josh Donaldson ($2,900), Oswaldo Cabrera ($2,900), Oswald Peraza ($2,000), or Harrison Bader ($2,800) for value.
Other bats on this slate I like for cheap include Joc Pederson ($2,600), Mike Yastrzemski ($2,800), Luis Rengifo ($2,500), Luis Arraez ($2,700), and CJ Abrams ($2,100).
Looking at DraftKings I’m starting with Triston Casas ($2,300) as my top value play as his upside for that price is too great with three HR’s in his last six games. I also really like Pham, Verdugo, and Martinez all at very affordable prices.
Ryan Mountcastle ($4,100) is still a great play if you don’t go with Casas at 1B and if you want other BAL exposure I’d go with Anthony Santander ($4,500), Austin Hays ($3,300), Ryan McKenna ($2,000), or Jesus Aguilar ($2,000). Matt Olson ($4,700) and Michael Harris ($4,900) are my top ATL bats for the price while Oswaldo Cabrera ($3,000), Oswald Peraza ($2,000), and Harrison Bader ($2,800) are where I’d look for cheap Yankees exposure.
More value to consider today includes CJ Abrams ($2,200), Nick Gordon ($2,800), Jake Cave ($2,200), Mike Brosseau ($2,300), Mickey Moniak ($2,000), and Josh Jung ($2,400).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn