MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 4/26/2022
We have a couple games with rain to monitor on this 11-game slate and plenty of great pitching and offenses to target.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
It’s important to remember that MLB is much more volatile compared to NBA and even NFL, as the batter with the highest batting average facing the worst pitcher in the league can still go 0-for-4 while the 9-hole hitter with a .095 average could end up being the highest-scoring hitter of the slate.
What we want over a season of baseball is for the most likely outcomes to end up happening more often than not, which is all we can hope for based off historical data, while always knowing the day-to-day outcomes are just microcosms of those big averages and can swing way in our favor or the complete opposite way.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
BAL/NYY has the most rain tonight with 55%-66% rain from first pitch to 10PM so we could see any of three outcomes where they postpone early, delay the start time, or play through it if it’s not too heavy. The Yankees bats are the only part of this game that I’d consider if we know for sure it’s not getting postponed as Luis Severino is still too risky with potential rain delays and plenty of other great, safer pitching options today. MIA/WAS could see a late start but should play fine after.
KCR/CHW, CHC/ATL, and OAK/SFG all have ~10mph winds blowing out to center with CLE/LAA ~7mph out to left while DET/MIN and NYM/STL see slight winds from left to right. BOS/TOR, HOU/TEX, and LAD/ARI are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for DET/MIN are -26.3% while total runs for MIA/WSH are -12.3%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Luis Robert remains out while Jonathan India will return but Eddie Rosario is out indefinitely after getting laser eye surgery and Steven Kwan is still pretty iffy with his hamstring injury. Taylor Ward moved up to lead-off yesterday for the Angels and responded with two HR’s so he should be their everyday leadoff man and is a great value play on FanDuel while Trevor Story should be back at leadoff after getting a day off yesterday and Alex Verdugo hitting 2nd against righties could be a permanent change if we see it again today.
The Dodgers are looking like the top stack today with a 5.5+ team total against Zach Davies while the White Sox are also looking like a great team to stack with the wind blowing out against the lefty Daniel Lynch. If the BAL/NYY game plays the Yankees could be a lower-owned stack with huge upside against Lyles and are very cheap on FD while Toronto is another pretty cheap FD stack with only Vlad over $3.4k. Other stacks I like today include HOU, TEX, LAA, and ATL.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I like starting with a couple cheap leadoff guys in Taylor Ward ($2,800) and Jose Siri ($2,100) as they should really help fit in Rodon or Gausman. Texas has a couple guys standing out as excellent value plays too in Marcus Semien ($3,100) and Corey Seager ($2,800) and on the other side of that game Yulieski Gurriel for $2,600 is a very strong play with seven hits over his last four games. I mentioned the White Sox as a top stack but if you want some cheap exposure then I’d consider Yasmani Grandal ($2,400), Jose Abreu ($3,300), and Andrew Vaughn ($2,800). I definitely want some Toronto exposure too with my favorite plays for the price being George Springer ($3,400) and Bo Bichette for just $3,100 after hitting a grand slam yesterday. Other cheap FanDuel bats I like include Max Muncy ($3,200), Giancarlo Stanton ($3,000), Marcell Ozuna ($3,000), Austin Meadows ($2,900), Franmil Reyes ($2,600), and Ketel Marte ($2,600).
Looking at DraftKings Taylor Ward is almost $2k more expensive than FD at $4,500 and likely won’t make my main build while Jose Siri is still priced very nicely at $2,800 with the platoon advantage hitting leadoff. I like the prices of Yulieski Gurriel ($3,600) and Marcus Semien ($4,500) but Corey Seager ($5,400) is a bit too expensive there. Grandal ($4,200), Abreu ($4,700), and Vaughn ($4,100) remain my favorite White Sox on DK. With Gausman under $9k I think it should be easy to fit in 2-4 Dodgers with Mookie Betts ($4,800), Freddie Freeman ($5,200), and Trea Turner ($5,200) all very affordable considering their upside. Other cheap DK bats I’m considering are Kyle Garlick ($2,000), Ernie Clement ($2,000), Nate Lowe ($3,600), Franmil Reyes ($3,700), Zack Collins ($3,300), and Luis Gonzalez ($3,100).
Carlos Rodon is my #1 pitcher on both sites while Kevin Gausman is way too cheap on DK at $8,700 and should be the highest owned pitcher there coming off a 55 FP game in this same matchup. Max Fried is my favorite GPP pitcher as he’s still pretty expensive but should be much lower-owned than Rodon/Gausman but showed just as much upside in his last start with 7 shutout innings against the Dodgers. If you want to go cheap at pitcher today Eduardo Rodriguez & Chris Paddack are my favorite options.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getitng a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn