MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/1/2022
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
LAA/NYY is looking like the riskiest game for potential rain issues but it’s too early to know for sure so double check the status of this game before locking in Nestor Cortes or any of the bats. CIN/BOS is the next riskiest but the rain should be light enough to play through but again double check before lock as the rain could get heavier than it’s currently forecast to be.
Wind shouldn’t be much of a factor today as no game has more than 10mph winds with CIN/BOS, PIT/LAD and MIN/DET all seeing ~7-9mph winds blowing out. LAA/NYY & MIL/CHC have slight breezes blowing in and CHW/TOR & TBR/TEX are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for SEA/BAL are +14.8% while total runs for MIL/CHC are -12.1%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The White Sox will get back Luis Robert tonight hitting cleanup but Yoan Moncada will remain out and with Tim Anderson on the IL AJ Pollock will hit leadoff. Tyler Naquin is out after straining his left quad yesterday and is also still out. Cody Bellinger is dealing with an adductor injury and for now we’re leaving him out until he plays but he wouldn’t be a target for me today anyways in the L/L matchup with Quintana. With Grossman on the IL Willi Castro could continue to hit leadoff and with Correa on the covid list look for Jermaine Palacios to get more starts at SS.
I’m not sure stacking is the way to go today in cash games as the teams with the highest totals are BOS and LAD but are facing pretty solid pitchers in Hunter Greene and Jose Quintana. The Yankees and Mariners are also decent teams to stack but again I think that’s more of a GPP approach today. After those four teams I’d take a shot on the White Sox, Blue Jays, and Brewers as low-owned stacks.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m liking the value of Joey Votto at just $2,500 and Jesse Winker for $2,600 and if you need a really cheap OF I like Cal Mitchell for $2,200 likely hitting leadoff tonight. At 2B for cheap I’d consider Jonathan Schoop ($2,500) who has hit for the cycle over his last three games and Harold Castro is another Tiger to consider for the minimum $2k especially if he hits high in the order. The Yankees have a few cheap options in DJ LeMahieu ($3,000), Gleyber Torres ($3,000), and Miguel Andujar ($2,200) that make for a solid mini stack against the lefty Detmers and another cheap mini-stack I like with the platoon advantage is Andrew Vaughn ($2,700) and Jose Abreu ($3,200) against Ryu. Some other value FD bats I’m considering are Teoscar Hernandez ($2,700), AJ Pollock ($2,500), Frank Schwindel ($2,800), and Justin Turner ($3,000).
Looking at DraftKings Kyle Garlick ($2,200) and Cal Mitchell ($2,100) are strong OF options if you need extremely salary relief along with Miguel Andujar at $2,500. Joey Votto ($3,700) and Jesse Winker ($3,800) remain strong plays for the price while Schoop ($3,400) is my favorite Tiger for the price. The Pirates only have a 3.36 team total currently but if you need more value I’d look at Josh VanMeter ($2,400) and on the Cubs I love the SB upside of Christopher Morel ($3,600) who can also hit one out of the park. More DK bats I like include Andrew Vaughn ($3,700), AJ Pollock ($3,400), Nick Senzel ($2,500), Rowdy Tellez ($3,800), and Kevin Kiermaier ($3,800).
Nestor Cortes and Robbie Ray are my SP1 and SP2 today but if rain makes Cortes too risky I’d look at Jeffrey Springs, Tarik Skubal, or Bailey Ober to pair with Ray.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn