MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/16/2022
Just a 5 game main slate today with a couple rain spots to monitor as the day goes on and models change.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
Three games are currently “yellow / green” with TBR/NYY, PHI/WSH, and MIL/NYM all with slight chances of some rain but overall all three are still very likely to play fine but things could still change closer to lock. TEX/DET is the hottest game of the game with temps in the high 80’s at first pitch and ~13 mph winds from right to left while PHI/WSH will see temps in the mid 80’s with a slight breeze out to left. MIL/NYM sees the most wind with ~14mph out to left and temps in the low 70’s and the only dome game is LAA/SEA.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for TEX/DET are +13.7% while total runs for MIL/NYM are +30.1%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Starling Marte was hit by a pitch on his wrist yesterday and although x-rays were negative he won’t play tonight and Mark Canha will hit leadoff against the lefty Ashby. Kevin Kiermaier left yesterday’s game with achilles soreness and he may require an IL stint if it doesn’t get better over the next few days and Vidal Brujan will hit leadoff tonight. Juan Soto and JP Crawford have both missed the last two games but I’d expect at least one if not both to return today but Anthony Rendon wrist will likely keep him out at least another day.
With the great hitting weather and the matchup with Corbin the Phillies are my top stack today with Hoskins, Castellanos, and Realmuto all very affordable on both sites and I like Harper on FD and Schwarber on DK for their prices. Corbin has allowed at least 3 ER in six straight starts with at least 7 hits allowed in each of his last five starts and sitting on a team total around 5.3 currently in hot & humid temps I’d try to get a few Philly bats in your main build. The Rangers and Yankees are my next favorite stacks with TEX getting the slight edge in priority for me hitting in better weather and having cheaper salaries but the Yankees are pretty affordable too especially on FD and can always go off at home even though they’re going to be facing a bullpen game from the Rays. No other stacks really excite me much but if I had to take a shot in some GPP’s I’d consider the Brewers and Angels.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with the value of Nick Castellanos ($2,700) and JT Realmuto ($2,700) from my favorite team stack and I will also include Rhys Hoskins ($3,600). I also want some Rangers exposure and the combo of Marcus Semien ($3,200) and Corey Seager ($3,200) is just too cheap to fade and if you want another cheap Ranger then Kole Calhoun ($2,500) is your guy. To round out my main build I’d look at a couple Yankees as Giancarlo Stanton ($3,600) and Josh Donaldson ($2,700) have really nice salaries in the heart of the order and if you can fit him always try to get in Aaron Judge ($4,600). Some more cheap FD bats to consider include Gleyber Torres ($2,900), Alec Bohm ($2,500), Jonah Heim ($2,600), Christian Yelich ($3,200), Vidal Brujan ($2,200), and Mark Canha ($2,600).
Looking at DraftKings I’m again starting with Nick Castellanos ($4,100), JT Realmuto ($4,700), and Rhys Hoskins ($4,400) and I like the price of Kyle Schwarber ($4,500) too. It’s the same story with the Rangers as Marcus Semien ($4,600), Corey Seager ($4,900) and Kole Calhoun ($3,900) all have great salaries and I’ll include Adolis Garcia for $4,600. The Yankees are more expensive relative to FD but Giancarlo Stanton ($5,300) is still pretty affordable and Josh Donaldson ($4,800) is at a pretty good price too. Other DK bats I like are Vidal Brujan ($2,100), Nate Lowe ($3,000), Ezequiel Duran ($2,500), Mark Canha ($3,200), Andrew McCutchen ($2,900), and Alec Bohm ($3,100).
Luis Severino has been scratched tonight so Zack Wheeler is my clear SP1 today on both sites and on DK Shohei Ohtani ($8,200) is my next favorite option. Martin Perez is my favorite GPP play while Aaron Ashby and Tylor Megill are my long-shot GPP plays.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn