MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/29/22
Just a 7-game main slate today as eight games are starting before 5pm and more great hitting weather in almost all the outdoor games.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
There will be a few showers around the LAD/COL game and at worst it could cause a delay but otherwise the game should get in fine. CIN/CHC will see about 5mph winds blowing in and temps in the high 60’s while ATL/PHI, MIN/CLE, MIA/STL, LAD/COL, and CHW/LAA will all see temps in the mid 70s to mid 80s. BOS/TOR is the lone dome game on the main slate.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for LAD/COL are +20.9% while total runs for ATL/PHI are +21%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Ronald Acuna is still out with his foot injury and Bryce Harper is out at least 6 weeks after thumb surgery while Jarren Duran remains out as he’s unvaccinated in Canada. Jazz Chisholm is going on the IL with his back issues and players getting a day off today include Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman, Justin Turner, Andrew Vaughn, and Connor Joe. Tommy Pham was a late scratch yesterday with back stiffness but is back in the lineup today and after returning from the IL yesterday Jorge Polanco and Yoan Moncada will play b2b games.
The Dodgers remain my top stack facing Marquez in Coors who has allowed 14 ER over his last three starts there and the Braves come in behind them as my next favorite stack in great hitting conditions against the lefty Suarez in Philly. There’s a good amount of strong pitching going today so I’m not a big fan of stacks after those top 2 but I do like taking a shot on the Twins, Guardians, and Angels for GPP stacks.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I have to start with Max Muncy for just $3,100 hitting cleanup on my favorite stack of the night and for the price I’m looking at Chris Taylor ($3,200) and Cody Bellinger ($3,300) for cheap LAD exposure. Rafael Ortega is still $2,200 and has been great over his last five games averaging around 17 FP so he’s a fine value option and staying under $3k I’m liking Max Kepler ($2,700), Alex Kirilloff ($2,300), and Steven Kwan ($2,400). I want some ATL exposure too and Marcell Ozuna is looking too cheap at $3,000 while Austin Riley, Travis d’Arnaud, and Matt Olson are all $3,500 and in play depending on positional needs. Some more cheap FD bats to consider include Jose Miranda ($2,100), Luis Arraez ($3,000), Gary Sanchez ($2,400), Amed Rosario ($2,800), Jorge Soler ($2,800), Jonathan India ($2,800), and Jared Walsh ($2,800).
Looking at DraftKings the Dodgers are priced up but Max Muncy is still be favorite option for the price at $4,800 while Taylor ($4,000) and Bellinger ($4,000) are both still pretty cheap and Jake Lamb is hitting 7th for the bare minimum $2k. Rafael Ortega ($2,900), Alex Kirilloff ($3,000), and Steven Kwan ($3,000) remain some of my favorite value plays along with Marcell Ozuna ($4,000). Other cheap DK bats to keep in mind are Jose Miranda ($2,400), Franmil Reyes ($2,900), Garrett Cooper ($2,800), Jesus Aguilar ($2,200), Ian Happ ($3,700), and Jared Walsh ($3,600).
Shohei Ohtani has 1 ER and 25 strikeouts over his last three starts and he is my SP1 on both sites and on DK there’s a few options for SP2 but I’m leaning Alex Manoah for just $8,700 at home against BOS. I still really like Sandy Alcantara if you can fit him for $10k and for GPPs I like taking shots on Kyle Wright, Julio Urias, and Justin Steele.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn