MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 7/12/22
It’s a huge MLB Tuesday, as we have 13 games on FanDuel and 14 games on DraftKings, which is including Game 2 of the CHW/CLE doubleheader.
This is a daily, weekday MLB article, which can hopefully show you some new tools on RG, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on them.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
CIN/NYY could see enough rain to cause a delay, along with SEA/WSH & MIL/MIN, but the rain will die down the longer they all wait. Right now I’m avoiding the SEA/WSH game and am starting to worry about CIN/NYY as we get closer to lock so just a heads up there is the most risk with those two games. BAL/CHC has great hitting weather in Wrigley, with 80 degree temps and 10mph winds out to right and Coors field is similar with 80 degree temps and 10mph winds out to left. NYM/ATL, LAD/STL, & DET/KCR will all see temps in the 80s and the dome games today are OAK/TEX, BOS/TBR, and PHI/TOR.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for BAL/CHC are +50.5% while total runs for BAL/CHC are +31.1%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today, (main slate for this article) in addition to which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day, with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Julio Rodriguez will serve his 1-game suspension tonight while Jesse Winker will return from his suspension and for the Phillies we won’t see JT Realmuto or Alec Bohm as they are unvaccinated and can’t play in Toronto. Rafael Devers will return from his back injury today but JD Martinez will get a day off and Starling Marte needs at least another game to recover from his groin tightness and Joey Votto is back in the lineup for CIN. Whit Merrifield is likely out through the all-star break with a toe injury and Kris Bryant remains out today on the paternity list along with Brendan Donovan for STL with an illness. The Yankees are sitting Aaron Judge tonight so Torres will bat 2nd and the Rockies are resting CJ Cron and Brendan Rodgers while Hunter Renfroe will come off the IL for MIL and bat 8th today and Christian Yelich was late-scratched and is out tonight and Wong will now bat leadoff.
The Padres remain my top stack sitting at a team total over 6 against the lefty Gomber. Just like yesterday, the Rockies have a tougher matchup, but are still a strong stack option, as Clevinger hasn’t been too dominant this year. The Yankees are my next favorite stack at home against Ashcraft, who has allowed 9 ER over his last two starts with just two total strikeouts in that span. The Blue Jays are another strong stack at home against a Phillies bullpen game and I also really like the Dodgers against the lefty Liberatore as the hitting conditions are some of the best on the slate in STL and the Twins should put up some runs at home against Alexander in good hitting weather. BAL/CHC is a solid game stack to consider as it’s hot with a slight breeze blowing out in Wrigley and the Rangers are in another nice stack spot at home against a mediocre A’s pitcher in Kaprielian.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m locking in Manny Machado ($4,500) and we’ll see how the Padres lineup looks but if Ha-seong Kim ($3,300) is at leadoff he will likely make my main build along with Luke Voit ($3,200) and either Jorge Alfaro ($2,800) or Austin Nola ($2,800). For the Rockies I like the prices of Charlie Blackmon ($3,500) and Ryan McMahon ($3,400) but they aren’t priorities for me. I want some Yankees exposure and Josh Donaldson ($3,100) is still a bit too cheap and he’ll help you fit in Giancarlo Stanton ($3,800) and with Gleyber Torres ($3,000) hitting 2nd he makes for a top value play now. If you want to go cheaper at the 3B spot I’d consider Justin Turner for $2,900 with the platoon advantage in great hitting weather and my favorite LAD bat for the price today. Josh Smith is still too cheap at just $2,600 hitting leadoff and the Blue Jays have some cheaper options to consider in Bo Bichette ($3,500), Alejandro Kirk ($3,000), and Teoscar Hernandez ($3,200). More value bats I like on FD today include Max Kepler ($2,600), Jesse Winker ($2,700), Adley Rutschman ($2,700), Rafael Ortega ($2,500), Seiya Suzuki ($3,100), Bobby Witt ($3,100), MJ Melendez ($2,500), and Eric Haase ($2,500).
Looking at DraftKings I’m still locking in Manny Machado ($5,100) first and whoever catches or hits higher in the order between Jorge Alfaro ($3,400) and Austin Nola ($2,800) will be my C today. If Kim hits leadoff he should be one of the highest-owned players today at just $2,900 while Luke Voit should be a very popular play at 1B for just $3,400 and although he doesn’t have the platoon advantage today Jake Cronenworth is still way too cheap at just $3,900. Esteury Ruiz will also made his Padres debut today and he is one of the fastest guys in baseball so for $2,000 he could really payoff big if he gets on base a couple times. The Rockies are priced up more than SD but I still really like the prices of Charlie Blackmon ($4,600) and Ryan McMahon ($3,800). If you need the salary relief or want to fade the Machado chalk at 3B I would go with Josh Smith for just $3,100 as he has 6 RBIs over his last couple games and can hit for power and swipe a base. Some other DK bats to consider at nice salaries are Aaron Hicks ($2,700), Yoan Moncada ($3,000), Eloy Jimenez ($3,700), Alex Kirilloff ($3,000), Justin Turner ($3,900), Rafael Ortega ($3,300), Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,600), Jose Iglesias ($3,400), and Wilmer Flores ($3,000).
With 30 strikeouts and just 1 ER over his last three starts, Spencer Strider will be my SP1 on both sites today and he comes at a great value on FD of just $9,100. On DK I will likely go with Gerrit Cole as my SP2 especially with how cheap most of the Padres bats are but I also really like Dylan Cease for a little bit cheaper and for super cheap I like taking a shot on Beau Brieske or Glenn Otto. Jose Berrios is another name I like in GPPs as he’s pretty cheap on both sites and the Phillies won’t have Realmuto or Bohm and although Chris Sale will be limited to around 85 pitches I think he’s worth using in a lineup or two especially for $8.4k on DK.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions, or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn