MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 7/6/22
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
TEX/BAL has an increasing chance of rain late but it still has a good shot of going the full 9 but no guarantees. NYY/PIT might see a late start if rain doesn’t fully clear by first pitch but otherwise it should play fine after while STL/ATL has classic pop-up storms leaving a chance for a mid-game delay but still a pretty low chance of that.
The hottest game will be STL/ATL with temps in the high 80s with 60-70% humidity and WSH/PHI is similar with temps in the mid 80s and 45-55% humidity. TEX/BAL, NYY/PIT, and TBR/BOS are looking at temps in the low 80s-high 70s while COL/LAD is the coolest game of the slate with 65-75 degree temps. Dome games include SFG/ARI and KCR/HOU.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for NYY/PIT are +15.2% while total runs for TBR/BOS are -8%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Nelson Cruz and Anthony Rizzo we’re both late scratches yesterday and will remain out today but Juan Soto is back in the lineup for the Nationals. Didi Gregorius is back in the lineup for the Phillies and the Orioles will get back Austin Hays but Ryan Mountcastle will remain out. Bobby Witt was hit in the knuckles by a fastball yesterday and is out of the lineup today and Rafael Devers remains out of the lineup for Boston with Christian Vazquez hitting in his 2-hole spot. Jose Altuve will get the night off as well with Dubon hitting leadoff for Houston.
The Dodgers are my favorite stack today at home against fill-in starter Jose Urena and they are currently sitting on a 6+ run team total. The Yankees and Astros are my next favorite stacks both sitting on 5+ team totals against mediocre righties and in the tier right below them I like the Phillies and Red Sox stacks. For GPPs I like taking shots on the Rangers, Orioles, Braves, and Giants.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel it seems like they’re never going to make Max Muncy higher than $3k again as he’s $2,700 today after putting up over 45 FP last night and gets an even better matchup against Urena who had a 7% strikeout rate against lefties last season so although he’ll be chalky I’m not fading Muncy at that price. I’m going to do my best to fit in Freddie Freeman ($4,200), Mookie Betts ($4,000), and Trea Turner ($4,300) as well but if I can only fit in one or two that’s the order I’m prioritizing them. If you want to save some salary at the SS spot I love Corey Seager tonight at just $3,200 against Watkins and also on TEX Mitch Garver ($2,400) and Kole Calhoun ($2,300) will really help you fit in those high priced Dodgers bats. A couple cheap bats on an offense I like tonight are Nick Castellanos ($2,800) and Darick Hall ($2,900) and if you want spend up at OF then Kyle Schwarber is a great option at $3,800. Other value bats on FD to consider include Mauricio Dubon ($2,000), Matt Carpenter ($2,200), Adley Rutschman ($2,500), Josh Donaldson ($2,500), Gleyber Torres ($2,800), LaMonte Wade ($2,400), and Brandon Belt ($2,600).
Looking at DraftKings my favorite play is going to be Darick Hall at $2,800 and right with him is Max Muncy at just $4,200 who will likely be one of the highest-owned players today. Mookie Betts is still too cheap at $4,500 and I think Kyle Schwarber ($5,100) and Nick Castellanos ($4,000) are still a bit too cheap and are squarely in play. The SFG/ARI game doesn’t have a very high game total but does offer some solid value plays in LaMonte Wade ($3,600), Alek Thomas ($3,000), and David Peralta ($3,500). More players I like for the price are Matt Carpenter ($3,700), Josh Donaldson ($3,800), Kole Calhoun ($3,900), Josh Lowe ($2,000), Mauricio Dubon ($2,400), and Jake Lamb ($2,300).
Cristian Javier has been beyond dominant over his last two starts with 27 strikeouts and just 1 ER so he is my SP1 on both sites at home against the Royals. Aaron Nola is close behind him for top SP and I will do everything I can to fit him in with Javier on DK while Luis Severino offers a price discount to Nola and has big upside as well. If you want to take a shot on Brayan Bello in his MLB debut I can’t blame you as he’s $6k on FD and $5k on DK and you can fit in any batters you want with him.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn