MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 7/8/22
Huge 14-game main slate today and weather is looking pretty safe in most of the games.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
LAA/BAL & WAS/ATL have slight chances of a rain delay but still not very likely while MIA/NYM & PHI/STL have even less chance of delay but still some rain in the surrounding area worth mentioning.
The hottest games will be PHI/STL, WSH/ATL, CLE/KCR, and LAA/BAL all with temps in the 80’s and 60-80% humidity and the dome games today include MIN/TEX, PIT/MIL, COL/ARI, and TOR/SEA.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for MIA/NYM are +19% while total runs for NYY/BOS are +10.7%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Bobby Witt is back for the Royals today but Anthony Rizzo remains out and Giancarlo Stanton will join him on the bench today with a day off. Andrew Vaughn also remains out with an illness and Yoan Moncada is getting a breather with AJ Pollock hitting 2nd and Josh Harrison playing 3rd. We likely won’t see Jeremy Pena today after he was scratched yesterday due to health and safety protocols and Jurickson Profar could be out a few games after a scary collision yesterday so Kim will hit leadoff for SD tonight. In other leadoff hitter news George Springer is back tonight after missing a couple games but Willson Contreras remains out with his hamstring tightness.
The Yankees are my top stack today going against the righty Seabold who has allowed 8 ER, 3 HR, and 15 hits over his last two starts and I really like the mix of expensive and value bats the Yankees stack offers. The Dodgers, Braves, and White Sox come in as my next favorite stacks with the Braves hitting in some of the best conditions today and the White Sox facing a really struggling Skubal who has allowed 3+ ER in each of his las six starts. Some lower-owned stacks I like in GPPs are the Orioles, Twins, Guardians, and Astros.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel some guys’ salaries just don’t seem to budge and they remain excellent value plays with Josh Donaldson ($2,500), Aaron Hicks ($2,400), and Max Muncy ($2,700) being the first guys I start my lineup with. I also really love the price of Gleyber Torres at $2,800 hitting cleanup tonight for my favorite stack and he’s swinging a hot bat with six hits over his last three games. There are a handful leadoff hitters I really like for value too in Steven Kwan ($2,200), Jonathan Villar ($2,200), Josh Rojas ($2,800), and Luis Arraez ($2,900) who all have some pop and SB potential and might get you that extra at-bat advantage. My favorite spend-ups today are Aaron Judge ($4,300), Yordan Alvarez ($4,500), Dansby Swanson ($3,800), and Mookie Betts ($4,100) and other bats I really like for the price include Marcell Ozuna ($3,200), Max Kepler ($2,500), Corey Seager ($3,200), Michael Chavis ($2,400), Franmil Reyes ($2,500), AJ Pollock ($2,400), Eloy Jimenez ($3,200), and Darick Hall ($2,900).
Looking at DraftKings I’m still starting my build with Josh Donaldson ($3,800) and Aaron Hicks ($2,500) and if you need some more value in the OF I really like the prices of Alek Thomas ($2,800) and Franmil Reyes ($2,900). There’s some extreme value at 1B as well with Darick Hall ($2,600), Michael Chavis ($2,200), and Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,800) while Matt Olson is still a great value at just $4,300. Some other guys with salaries I really like today are Marcell Ozuna ($4,000), Steven Kwan ($3,200), Eloy Jimenez ($4,100), AJ Pollock ($3,600), Gleyber Torres ($4,100), David Peralta ($3,400), and Carlos Santana ($3,200).
For pitching tonight I’m going to go cheap on DraftKings with the combo if Lucas Giolito ($7,800) and Blake Snell ($7,900) at the moment and I’m still debating other cheap guys in Zac Gallen ($8,300) and Jose Urquidy ($8,200). It’s the same on FD with those four pitchers all under $9k but the cheapest option is Jose Urquidy at $8,100 against OAK and right now he’s my favorite SP for the price on FD.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn