MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 8/9/22
We have a massive 14-game main slate today and neither site is including either of the CHW/KCR doubleheader games. Coors field is also back in play with the Cardinals in town and there’s a couple pretty big rain spots that we’ll have to monitor up to lock.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
TOR/BAL & MIA/PHI will have storms around the park that could cause serious issues including a chance of postponement so make sure to follow the weather updates on those games if you plan on using any players in them especially the pitchers. CIN/NYM could see a delay at some point but the game has a good chance of being played while ATL/BOS has possible storms early that could cause a late start but will clear up and the game should play fine.
The hottest games looking at temps in the 80s are TOR/BAL, MIA/PHI, CIN/NYM, ATL/BOS, and STL/COL while most of the other outdoor games will be in the 70s including Wrigley which will also have 5-9 mph winds blowing in. Today’s dome games are TEX/HOU, TBR/MIL, PIT/ARI, and NYY/SEA.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for WSH/CHC are -23.6% while total runs for ATL/BOS are +12.2%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The Yankees lost Matt Carpenter to a broken foot yesterday so he’ll be out indefinitely while Anthony Rizzo has a good chance to return if he comes through his pre-game workout fine. The Dodgers will get Justin Turner back from the IL while the Cubs claimed Franmil Reyes off of waivers and he will hit 5th for them today. Jesse Winker left yesterday with back spasms and is out today while Mike Moustakas is going on the IL after leaving yesterday with a calf injury but Kyle Tucker will be back in the lineup for HOU after missing some time. After getting a breather yesterday Lourdes Gurriel is back in the leadoff spot for TOR with Springer on the IL while Teoscar Hernandez is getting a day off and in other leadoff hitter news Nimmo is getting the day off so Mark Canha will take his spot in the order at leadoff.
With the Rockies starting a mediocre righty in Coors the Cardinals are easily my favorite stack today currently sitting on a team total over 6 and salaries that just aren’t cheap enough for this great of a hitting environment and matchup. The Rockies are also hitting in 85 degree heat but at their current prices against a solid pitcher in Mikolas they are just a GPP stack for me today. I really hope the weather clears up in Baltimore as the Blue Jays are my 2nd favorite stack hitting in super hot and humid weather against a mediocre righty in Bradish and the same can be said for the Mets whose game has a better chance to be played after a potential delay but they will also be in super hot and humid weather against the less-than-intimidating Minor and they currently have the 2nd highest projected team total of the slate. The Braves, D-Backs, and Dodgers all have nice team totals too and I’d rank them in that order for stacking and for low-owned GPP stacks I’d consider the Padres, Phillies, and Guardians.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel two of my favorite plays are going to be Darin Ruf at $2,600 hitting 5th against the lefty Minor (who Ruf is 5 for 14 in his career against) along with Mark Canha who is hitting leadoff today also for $2,600 and I will likely have at least one of Starling Marte ($3,600) and Pete Alonso ($4,200) for the Mets as well. Moving to the Cardinals we can easily expect most of them to be the highest-owned bats at their respective positions especially Dylan Carlson ($3,100) and Nolan Gorman ($3,200) who are just too cheap to fade for me while Lars Nootbaar ($2,800) and Paul DeJong ($2,700) also come in at prices that are going to be hard to resist. Arenado ($4,300), Goldschmidt ($4,500), and ONeill ($3,500) are the expensive STL bats and I’d rank them in that order for priority spends. If the TOR game ends up playing I really like the prices of Lourdes Gurriel and Alejandro Kirk both at $2,900 while Bo Bichette ($3,500) and Matt Chapman ($3,400) are still at very affordable prices as well and speaking of affordable the Braves have a trio of cheap bats in Marcell Ozuna ($2,600), Robbie Grossman ($2,300), and William Contreras ($2,800) all with the platoon advantage hitting in great weather. If you aren’t stacking ARI or LAD I’d consider a few of their value bats to fill any holes you need with guys like Josh Rojas ($3,000), Alek Thomas ($2,700), Christian Walker ($3,000), Max Muncy ($2,700), and Cody Bellinger ($2,800). Some other value bats I like on FD include Oscar Gonzalez ($2,500), Rafael Ortega ($2,200), Luis Rengifo ($2,400), Jared Walsh ($2,500), Raimel Tapia ($2,700), and Michael Chavis ($2,200),
Looking at DraftKings I still really like Darin Ruf ($3,000) and Mark Canha ($3,500) but Marte and Alonso aren’t as appealing at their prices over $5k. Lars Nootbaar is my favorite STL bat as he’s only $2,300 while Dylan Carlson ($4,300), Nolan Gorman ($4,400), and Paul DeJong ($3,500) are my next favorites for the price and Nolan Arenado ($5,600) is by far my preferred expensive option as Goldschmidt is $800 more at $6.4k. Gurriel, Kirk, Bichette, and Chapman are all fine options between $4k and $4.6k if you need to fill a position and the rain in Baltimore clears up by game time while Marcell Ozuna ($3,300) and Robbie Grossman ($2,000) are easily my favorite ATL bats to target at those prices. I’m not a fan of the Dodgers’ high salaries in cash games so they’re just a GPP stack for me on DK but the D-backs have a few solid value options in Alek Thomas ($3,500), Christian Walker ($3,700), and Daulton Varsho ($4,100). More DK bats to consider at great prices are Michael Chavis ($2,000), Matt Vierling ($2,100), Oscar Gonzalez ($3,000), Raimel Tapia ($2,900), Jo Adell ($2,500), and Seth Beer ($2,000).
Gerrit Cole has allowed 11 ER over his last two starts including 6 ER in this same matchup with Seattle in his last start so with so many great SPs going today I won’t be on Cole in cash games but he is as good of a GPP play as any SP can be with his upside and likely lower than usual ownership. If weather wasn’t a concern I’d absolutely consider Zack Wheeler and even Alek Manoah in cash games but unless there’s absolutely no concern of a mid-game rain delay or even a surprise postponement after they announce a late-start I won’t be risking either today outside of GPPs. This leaves Shohei Ohtani, Shane Bieber, and Carlos Carrasco as my top SPs and all have excellent matchups against OAK, DET, and CIN respectively making it much easier to fade the previously mentioned aces in cash games. On FD I’ll likely go with Ohtani as my SP1 unless I really need the extra salary as Bieber and Carrasco are $1k-1.8k cheaper while on DK Carrasco is just $8.2k which will make fitting STL bats much easier even if you pair him with Ohtani or Bieber. Other SPs I like for GPPs include Castillo, Musgrove, Morton, Urquidy, Urias, and Stroman.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn