MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 9/16/22
To end the week we have a huge 14 game main slate and miraculously not a single game with rain concerns.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
Pretty much every game will be in the 70s with KC/BOS and LAD/SF the exceptions (colder) and wind shouldn’t be much of a factor either with LAD/SF seeing the most at 13-18mph out to center but that park minimizes wind impact.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for PIT/NYM are +7% while total runs for MIA/WSH are +6.4%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Nelson Cruz is dealing with blurred vision and is out today and Luis Arraez sat yesterday with his tight hamstring but did make a pinch-hit appearance so there’s a chance he can start today. Rhys Hoskins sat yesterday with his sore hand and remains out today while the Mariners remain without Mitch Haniger with lower back soreness. Brandon Drury came off the concussion IL yesterday and should be back in there today against the lefty and we’ll see if the Diamondbacks stick with Stone Garrett at leadoff against another lefty. The Braves also activated Ozzie Albies off the IL and he’s batting 8th today and Trevor Story remains out for BOS with a heel injury.
The Red Sox, Astros, and Cardinals are my top stacks today while the Blue Jays, Orioles, White Sox, and Yankees are other stacks to consider for GPPs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I have to start with mentioning the salary for Juan Soto dropping from $3.8k yesterday to $2.7k today and even though its an L/L matchup with Bumgarner and Soto’s been pretty bad lately that is still a crazy price for someone who can break out at any moment in any matchup so I’d definitely consider him for cash games today.
Jeremy Pena ($2,400) is the cheapest he’s been since April and if he continues to hit 2nd I will be all over him at that price in my main build. Another super cheap bat likely hitting 2nd is Yoan Moncada ($2,200) who is coming off a four hit game with an HR and only needs about 1/3 of that production to pay off his price tag today. I don’t love the matchups for Daniel Vogelbach ($2,400) or Rowdy Tellez ($2,400) but for those prices with the platoon advantages they are definitely in play if you need more extreme salary relief.
The Orioles are facing a bullpen day from TOR so they’ll see a variety of arms but the top five of their order is still way too cheap with Cedric Mullins the most expensive at just $3,100 so feel free to look there for value if you need to fill a spot and on the other side of that game I like the prices of Teoscar Hernandez ($3,200), Cavan Biggio ($2,100), and Matt Chapman ($2,500).
More bats I like for cheap today are Gavin Sheets ($2,100), Josh Naylor ($2,700), Triston Casas ($2,400), Giancarlo Stanton ($2,700), Josh Donaldson ($2,400), Oswaldo Cabrera ($2,200), Carlos Santana ($2,400), and Max Muncy ($2,500).
Looking at DraftKings I like starting with the cheap combo of Elvis Andrus ($3,500) and Yoan Moncada ($3,700) at the top of the White Sox order and I also really like the combo of Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,000) and Michael Massey ($2,300) in the heart of the KC order if you need extreme savings. Triston Casas ($2,000), Josh Jung ($2,300), Aristides Aquino ($2,300), Albert Pujols ($2,600), and Carlos Santana ($2,100) are some more names for dirt cheap to consider sticking with the super salary saving theme.
For the Orioles Gunnar Henderson ($3,500) is my favorite play for the price but Ryan Mountcastle ($4,100) is also a great option while the Toronto bats are at prices I’d only consider for a full GPP stack. BOS, HOU, and STL are teams I want exposure to but like TOR most of their bats are very expensive with Yordan Alvarez ($5,700), Kyle Tucker ($5,600), Rafael Devers ($5,200), and Nolan Arenado ($5,500) being my favorite spend ups while Jeremy Pena ($4,500), Brendan Donovan ($3,300), and Alex Verdugo ($4,000) are a few cheaper options to get exposure to those offenses today.
Some other bats to consider for the price include Lane Thomas ($2,800), Oscar Gonzalez ($3,700), Rodolfo Castro ($2,500), Oswaldo Cabrera ($2,800), Ty France ($3,600), Cavan Biggio ($2,700), and Wil Myers ($3,200).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn