MLB Grind Down: Monday, June 5th - Page Two
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Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Toronto at Oakland – 10:05 PM ET
| Toronto | Oakland | ||||||||||||||
 | J.A. Happ |  | Sean Manaea | ||||||||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| OAK-103 | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.299 | 0.354 | 36.9% | 6.9% | 17.8% | 46.5% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.209 | 0.264 | 29.4% | 5.3% | 24.0% | 56.0% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.294 | 0.315 | 30.5% | 7.2% | 21.9% | 42.1% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.314 | 0.327 | 34.5% | 7.5% | 22.2% | 43.3% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| J.A. Happ | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,400 | Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | $14,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 5 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 14 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 32 | 4.28 | 3.18 | 20.5% | 7.5% | 42.5% | 31.6% | 17.8% | |
| 2017 | 4 | 3.09 | 4.50 | 26.4% | 3.5% | 47.5% | 34.4% | 16.4% | |
Happ’s ERA and SIERA don’t seem to like each other. Last year his SIERA was much higher, this year his ERA is much higher. He gave up two home runs in his first start back from injury and ended up throwing 81 pitches. He should have a longer leash tonight against the A’s and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him throw 90-95 pitches. This is a good ballpark for Happ, as he is a fly-ball pitcher that struggles with allowing too many home runs. On the season, Oakland is ranked 22nd in team wOBA and 28th in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. The A’s will likely roll out nine right-handed batters, but Happ won’t mind, as he is actually a reverse-splits pitcher.
Quick Breakdown: Happ may not throw 100+ pitches tonight, but he draws a favorable matchup and is pitching in a good ballpark. He’s viable as an SP2 in all formats.
| Sean Manaea | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,700 | Salary: | $7,800 | Salary: | $15,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 7 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 14 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 24 | 4.04 | 3.86 | 20.9% | 6.2% | 44.2% | 33.6% | 18.4% | |
| 2017 | 9 | 3.69 | 3.91 | 27.4% | 9.6% | 50.8% | 33.6% | 22.7% | |
Manaea has taken that next step forward this season, posting a 3.69 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27% in nine starts. He has an above-average ground ball rate and has induced a lot of soft contact this season. Even though the Blue Jays have some tough right-handed hitters in their lineup, the bottom of their order really struggles against southpaws. Manaea gets to pitch at home and he should garner fairly low ownership thanks to the name value of the Blue Jays. Much like the Giants/Brewers game, a lot of my lineups are going to feature one of the pitchers from this game.
Quick Breakdown: Manaea is one of my favorite tournament plays in the slate and is viable as an SP2 in cash games.
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Sean Manaea is having a solid season, but he has struggled with right-handed power hitters in his first two seasons in the big leagues. During that stretch, he has allowed a .327 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to righties. Even in this ballpark, Josh Donaldson and Kendrys Morales are firmly in play. We know Donaldson had plenty of success here in his time with the A’s and Morales boasts a .394 xwOBA against lefties.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.307 | 0.154 | 33.5% | 3.4% | 14.1% | 36.6% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,300 | CF | $6,400 |
| 2 | Josh Donaldson | RIGHT | 0.391 | 0.407 | 0.232 | 38.1% | 18.1% | 15.2% | 33.6% | 3B | $4,100 | 3B | $4,400 | 3B | $8,700 |
| 3 | Jose Bautista | RIGHT | 0.289 | 0.345 | 0.161 | 36.5% | 13.2% | 20.8% | 41.3% | OF | $4,100 | OF | $4,300 | RF | $8,400 |
| 4 | Kendrys Morales | SWITCH | 0.384 | 0.394 | 0.216 | 39.2% | 5.0% | 19.4% | 38.7% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $8,400 |
| 5 | Justin Smoak | SWITCH | 0.345 | 0.374 | 0.194 | 37.5% | 10.7% | 15.0% | 41.3% | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $7,800 |
| 6 | Troy Tulowitzki | RIGHT | 0.314 | 0.313 | 0.150 | 29.5% | 9.9% | 16.2% | 43.8% | SS | $3,200 | SS | $3,300 | SS | $6,600 |
| 7 | Devon Travis | RIGHT | 0.305 | 0.297 | 0.145 | 25.7% | 2.9% | 19.9% | 42.9% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $6,800 |
| 8 | Darwin Barney | RIGHT | 0.307 | 0.292 | 0.086 | 25.7% | 7.2% | 17.8% | 42.0% | SS | $2,000 | 2B/3B | $2,000 | 2B | $4,000 |
| 9 | Luke Maile | RIGHT | 0.252 | 0.240 | 0.143 | 32.4% | 1.9% | 30.8% | 45.5% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,200 | C | $4,100 |
Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson (GPP), Kendrys Morales (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson (Cash), Kendrys Morales (Cash)
Stackability – ORANGE
Oakland
Much like the Blue Jays, I prefer to attack the A’s offense individually rather than as a whole. The two batters with good power numbers against left-handed pitching are Khris Davis and Ryon Healy, both of which make excellent GPP plays. J.A. Happ may have reverse splits, but he has allowed 23 home runs to right-handed hitters in his last 36 starts.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rajai Davis | RIGHT | 0.274 | 0.264 | 0.121 | 25.5% | 7.0% | 24.4% | 40.1% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,000 | CF | $6,000 |
| 2 | Mark Canha | RIGHT | 0.274 | 0.265 | 0.271 | 27.3% | 2.0% | 30.6% | 30.3% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,600 | IF/OF | $5,100 |
| 3 | Jed Lowrie | SWITCH | 0.278 | 0.316 | 0.031 | 27.6% | 6.5% | 17.4% | 41.9% | 2B | $2,600 | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $7,600 |
| 4 | Khris Davis | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.394 | 0.246 | 41.3% | 10.2% | 27.6% | 40.5% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $3,300 | LF | $6,400 |
| 5 | Ryon Healy | RIGHT | 0.409 | 0.356 | 0.263 | 33.0% | 3.4% | 19.5% | 39.6% | 1B | $3,700 | 1B/3B | $3,800 | 3B | $7,600 |
| 6 | Trevor Plouffe | RIGHT | 0.317 | 0.335 | 0.148 | 38.9% | 8.8% | 24.8% | 46.7% | 3B | $2,600 | 3B | $2,500 | 3B | $4,800 |
| 7 | Chad Pinder | RIGHT | 0.320 | 0.312 | 0.211 | 47.4% | 6.6% | 31.1% | 36.8% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B/SS | $2,700 | 2B | $5,400 |
| 8 | Josh Phegley | RIGHT | 0.298 | 0.350 | 0.147 | 40.4% | 4.2% | 15.3% | 42.1% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,700 | C | $5,400 |
| 9 | Adam Rosales | RIGHT | 0.350 | 0.300 | 0.228 | 37.8% | 13.1% | 35.6% | 34.6% | 2B | $2,200 | SS | $2,100 | 3B | $4,000 |
Elite Plays – Khris Davis (GPP), Ryon Healy (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Khris Davis (Cash), Ryon Healy (Cash), Josh Phegley
Stackability – ORANGE
Washington at LA Dodgers – 10:10 PM ET
| Washington | LA Dodgers | ||||||||||||||
 | Gio Gonzalez |  | Hyun-Jin Ryu | ||||||||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| LAD-130 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.272 | 0.314 | 26.8% | 7.7% | 19.9% | 55.8% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.409 | 0.355 | 37.8% | 9.2% | 18.5% | 59.1% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.332 | 0.322 | 34.3% | 9.2% | 22.4% | 44.2% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.342 | 0.325 | 34.9% | 8.2% | 21.5% | 42.1% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Gio Gonzalez | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,700 | Salary: | $8,000 | Salary: | $15,600 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 3 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 14 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 32 | 3.96 | 4.57 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 47.6% | 32.7% | 18.1% | |
| 2017 | 11 | 4.84 | 3.03 | 20.7% | 12.1% | 44.4% | 32.5% | 20.1% | |
Gonzalez has a 3.03 ERA this season, but that seems unsustainable with a 12% walk rate, a .277 BABIP, and an 88% LOB%. He comes into tonight’s game as a small underdog against the Dodgers in a game that features a much higher over/under than I was expecting. I originally wasn’t on Gonzalez anyway and now that I’ve seen the high total, it makes that decision even easier. We often hear that the Dodgers can’t hit left-handed pitching, but that’s not the case this season. They are ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate.
Quick Breakdown: Gonzalez is an easy fade in all formats.
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | $6,600 | Salary: | $13,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 11 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 14 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 14 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1 | 4.81 | 11.57 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 41.2% | 44.4% | 5.6% | |
| 2017 | 8 | 4.19 | 3.91 | 21.1% | 8.5% | 47.8% | 34.6% | 23.5% | |
Ryu has looked decent since coming back from injury. In eight starts this season, he has a 4.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. The biggest issue that I have with Ryu is that he has thrown less than 80 pitches in four of his eight starts, which can seriously cap a pitcher’s upside. He may be favored tonight, but this is far from a good matchup. On the season, the Nationals are ranked second in team wOBA against left-handed pitching. Ryu seems underpriced which certainly helps, but I wouldn’t call him a safe play in this slate.
Quick Breakdown: Ryu is viable as an SP2 in tournament and potentially in cash games.
Batter Grind Down
Washington
The Nationals are one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching, but they are facing a quality pitcher in a bad ballpark for offensive production. With such a low implied run total, I don’t have a ton of interest in their offense, especially with so many exploitable matchups in the slate. Trea Turner, Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy, and Anthony Rendon are viable secondary plays, but none of them stand out as elite options at their respective positions.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trea Turner | RIGHT | 0.269 | 0.278 | 0.071 | 33.8% | 2.9% | 21.6% | 48.7% | SS | $3,700 | SS | $4,900 | IF/OF | $9,600 |
| 2 | Jayson Werth | RIGHT | 0.429 | 0.427 | 0.282 | 42.9% | 15.3% | 18.2% | 36.6% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,500 | LF | $6,900 |
| 3 | Bryce Harper | LEFT | 0.336 | 0.310 | 0.196 | 31.1% | 12.3% | 27.4% | 44.6% | OF | $4,800 | OF | $5,500 | RF | $10,800 |
| 4 | Ryan Zimmerman | RIGHT | 0.360 | 0.390 | 0.279 | 41.0% | 10.0% | 15.0% | 52.4% | 1B | $4,200 | 1B | $5,200 | 1B | $10,200 |
| 5 | Daniel Murphy | LEFT | 0.384 | 0.373 | 0.229 | 34.3% | 5.6% | 12.6% | 37.9% | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $5,100 | 2B | $10,000 |
| 6 | Anthony Rendon | RIGHT | 0.395 | 0.379 | 0.191 | 35.8% | 17.5% | 14.4% | 33.0% | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $4,600 | 3B | $8,800 |
| 7 | Matt Wieters | SWITCH | 0.310 | 0.342 | 0.142 | 30.9% | 9.3% | 21.4% | 35.1% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,100 | C | $6,000 |
| 8 | Michael Taylor | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.316 | 0.183 | 37.3% | 6.0% | 36.2% | 47.0% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,600 | CF | $7,200 |
| 9 | Gio Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.000 | 0.090 | 0.000 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 37.5% | 42.9% | P | $8,700 | P | $8,000 | P | $15,600 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon
Stackability – ORANGE
LA Dodgers
Gio Gonzalez has not been sharp with his command this season and has historically struggled against right-handed hitters. His ground ball rate drops nearly 12% and he has allowed a 34% hard contact rate to righties. Logan Forsythe, Chris Taylor, Franklin Gutierrez, Enrique Hernandez, and Austin Barnes all bat from the right side and all have good numbers against left-handed pitching. They are also very cheap across the industry.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Forsythe | RIGHT | 0.367 | 0.405 | 0.193 | 38.9% | 8.9% | 21.5% | 38.9% | 3B | $3,100 | 2B/3B | $3,500 | 2B | $6,900 |
| 2 | Corey Seager | LEFT | 0.320 | 0.348 | 0.174 | 40.4% | 8.0% | 23.7% | 45.3% | SS | $3,700 | SS | $4,000 | SS | $7,600 |
| 3 | Chris Taylor | RIGHT | 0.392 | 0.371 | 0.214 | 35.7% | 9.7% | 22.6% | 31.0% | OF | $3,500 | 2B | $4,500 | 2B | $8,800 |
| 4 | Franklin Gutierrez | RIGHT | 0.375 | 0.405 | 0.230 | 51.0% | 12.5% | 27.4% | 50.3% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,200 | RF | $6,300 |
| 5 | Enrique Hernandez | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.344 | 0.224 | 34.7% | 14.6% | 21.6% | 43.3% | OF | $2,800 | OF/SS | $3,300 | IF/OF | $6,600 |
| 6 | Austin Barnes | RIGHT | 0.372 | 0.366 | 0.262 | 30.3% | 12.5% | 18.8% | 36.4% | C | $2,000 | C | $3,100 | C | $6,000 |
| 7 | Cody Bellinger | LEFT | 0.392 | 0.359 | 0.333 | 50.0% | 7.7% | 35.9% | 13.6% | OF | $4,200 | 1B/OF | $4,500 | IF/OF | $8,800 |
| 8 | Brett Eibner | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.342 | 0.226 | 28.4% | 13.1% | 24.3% | 44.8% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,000 | RF | $4,000 |
| 9 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | LEFT | 0.262 | 0.226 | 0.000 | 20.0% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 100.0% | P | $6,900 | P | $6,600 | P | $13,200 |