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MLB Grind Down: Monday, June 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-06-06 03:10:54

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

St. Louis at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

St. Louis Cincinnati
stlouismlb Carlos Martinez cincinnatimlb Asher Wojciechowski
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-125 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.315 0.324 34.9% 11.3% 20.3% 53.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.201 0.300 30.0% 7.1% 21.4% 30.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.245 0.237 25.7% 5.8% 26.0% 57.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.504 0.476 50.0% 0.0% 15.8% 14.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Martinez
carlos-martinez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $12,500 Salary: $24,300
Salary Rank: 1 of 14 Salary Rank: 1 of 14 Salary Rank: 1 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.97 3.04 21.5% 8.7% 56.4% 29.6% 19.1%
2017 11 3.64 3.08 26.9% 9.1% 50.5% 33.9% 21.2%

After a fun weekend in Vegas, I’m ready to get back to the grind. Big thanks to FantasyDraft for having some of the RG crew out there to meet Drew Brees at the new Top Golf. If you haven’t checked out FantasyDraft, make sure to give them a try and to join through RG’s links to get the very best promos out there. If you haven’t heard, FantasyDraft offers rake-free head-to-head contests, which can really add up over time.

Monday’s slate features seven games and plenty of bad pitching options. When the safest play on the board is pitching on the road in a home run-friendly ballpark, you know the options are scarce. Martinez is the most expensive pitcher in the slate and will likely garner the highest ownership. He has a 27% strikeout rate this season with a ground ball rate over 50%. He will need both of those working in his favor tonight, as this is not the best ballpark for a pitcher. Martinez has had a little bit of trouble against the Reds in the past and the over/under for the game is sitting at 9.5 runs. I plan to have some exposure to Martinez tonight, but he’s far from a lock.

Quick Breakdown: From a raw projection standpoint, Martinez is the top pitching option in the slate. He’s fine to use in all formats, but far from a must play.

Asher Wojciechowski
randall-wojciechowski-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,500 Salary: $9,000
Salary Rank: 14 of 14 Salary Rank: 14 of 14 Salary Rank: 14 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 1 5.05 5.63 18.2% 3.0% 20.8% 41.7% 16.7%

Wojciechowski hasn’t pitched all that well in the minor leagues in the last two seasons and owns a career 6.66 ERA in the majors in four starts and four relief appearances. While he’s definitely cheap tonight, that doesn’t mean that we need to look his way in any type of league format. He has a low strikeout rate and is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that is playing in a home run-friendly ballpark. The Cardinals are a middle-of-the-pack offense against right-handed pitching, but should find some success in this matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Wojciechowski can be avoided in all formats tonight.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals see a sizable ballpark boost playing in the Great American Ball Park. We know that this is a small ballpark that yields a lot of home run production. I’ve also added ballpark factors to the MLB First Look and we can see that this park rates well for both left and right-handed hitters. When you throw in a matchup against Asher Wojciechowski, the Cardinals become a viable offense to target in both cash games and tournaments. The one through five hitters are all in play here and you can look to Paul DeJong if you need some cap savings at third base.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.359 0.346 0.188 30.8% 13.8% 24.9% 36.4% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 CF $8,400
2 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.379 0.409 0.250 46.0% 15.7% 20.1% 27.7% 1B $3,700 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
3 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.329 0.346 0.154 33.0% 8.1% 21.2% 46.5% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 RF $7,600
4 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.328 0.332 0.123 31.5% 6.3% 11.1% 47.6% C $3,300 C $3,800 C $7,600
5 Jhonny Peralta RIGHT 0.325 0.337 0.137 32.7% 7.3% 16.8% 43.2% 3B $2,400 3B $3,400 3B $6,800
6 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.355 0.311 0.205 29.6% 6.7% 12.9% 44.9% SS $3,100 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
7 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.294 0.298 0.235 23.1% 0.0% 23.5% 38.5% 3B $2,500 3B $3,200 3B $6,400
8 Magneuris Sierra LEFT 0.316 0.254 0.000 11.1% 11.5% 19.2% 50.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
9 Carlos Martinez RIGHT 0.158 0.156 0.000 18.9% 0.0% 17.2% 73.5% P $10,000 P $12,500 P $24,300

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Stephen Piscotty, Yadier Molina, Jhonny Peralta, Paul DeJong

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

One of the more intriguing tournament strategies tonight is to fade the chalky Carlos Martinez and to target a few Reds’ hitters. Their implied run total is fairly high for this matchup and we know Martinez has struggled against left-handed hitters throughout his career. Over the last two seasons, Martinez has allowed a .324 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to lefties. The Reds are viable as leverage plays off of Martinez, especially in tournaments. For cash game purposes, we can find offenses in better matchups.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.303 0.255 0.080 19.2% 8.8% 20.3% 46.3% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 CF $8,100
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.339 0.304 0.174 29.8% 9.5% 17.0% 38.6% SS $3,400 SS $4,200 SS $8,100
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.420 0.438 0.253 39.9% 17.8% 14.8% 37.4% 1B $4,400 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.333 0.330 0.259 37.0% 6.0% 26.5% 33.3% OF $3,800 OF $4,600 IF/OF $9,000
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.315 0.316 0.156 33.6% 7.8% 23.4% 40.6% 3B $2,900 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.338 0.333 0.212 35.7% 7.5% 21.9% 49.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.315 0.297 0.085 18.6% 1.9% 13.6% 44.3% 2B $2,900 2B $4,400 2B $8,400
8 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.281 0.300 0.141 21.3% 9.2% 19.5% 41.0% C $2,500 C $2,800 C $5,600
9 Asher Wojciechowski RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% P $5,500 P $4,500 P $9,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, Scott Schebler

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia at Atlanta – 7:35 PM ET

Philadelphia Atlanta
philadelphiamlb Nick Pivetta atlantamlb Bartolo Colon
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-120 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.321 0.287 37.5% 11.4% 20.0% 37.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.339 0.351 36.6% 5.5% 15.2% 37.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.499 0.422 42.9% 9.1% 25.5% 31.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.318 0.304 33.0% 3.5% 16.1% 49.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Nick Pivetta
nicholas-pivetta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,600
Salary Rank: 13 of 14 Salary Rank: 10 of 14 Salary Rank: 10 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 4 4.31 5.12 23.3% 10.0% 33.9% 40.7% 10.2%

Pivetta is making his fifth start of the season. In his first four, he’s posted a 4.31 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a walk rate of 10%. He had excellent numbers in the minor leagues before getting called up and was a fairly high pick in the 2013 draft. Even though Pivetta is an underdog in a game that has an over/under of 10.0 runs, I have more interest in Pivetta than most, but I don’t think we need to target him tonight. The game in Oakland may be the best place to look for an SP2.

Quick Breakdown: With the strikeout upside that Pivetta has shown in the minors, we should keep an eye on him.

Bartolo Colon
bartolo-colon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 12 of 14 Salary Rank: 11 of 14 Salary Rank: 11 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.37 3.43 16.2% 4.1% 43.2% 35.4% 16.2%
2017 11 4.80 6.99 14.0% 5.8% 45.5% 33.2% 21.0%

At this point, we should be stacking every offense that faces Bartolo Colon. His move to Atlanta has not gone as hoped and teams have been teeing off against his 90 MPH fastball. Colon is a pitcher that throws a ton of strikes, but has a low strikeout rate and a high hard contact rate. The Phillies may not have a ton of left-handed hitters in their lineup, but they have enough to cause some problems for Colon in this ballpark. I would rather take a shot on Pivetta over Colon, but will likely end up fading both.

Quick Breakdown: Colon doesn’t have enough upside to make up for the mistakes that he makes. He can be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies draw a favorable matchup against Bartolo Colon and they get to face him in a hitter-friendly ballpark. So far this season, SunTrust Park rates as the best ballpark in all of baseball for left-handed hitters, while having a mediocre rating for right-handed hitters. With Colon allowing a 36.6% hard contact rate to lefties, we should keep an eye on the Phillies’ lineup when it comes out. All of the lefties will be on my radar and if you want to roll out a complete Phillies’ stack, you could add Howie Kendrick and/or Tommy Joseph.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.336 0.308 0.112 25.1% 10.9% 18.9% 52.6% 2B $3,100 2B $3,500 2B $6,900
2 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.329 0.308 0.148 28.9% 8.4% 20.3% 43.7% OF $2,500 OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,700
3 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.316 0.331 0.141 35.4% 7.2% 18.5% 59.5% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.325 0.328 0.207 36.9% 5.5% 22.6% 41.4% 1B $3,600 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
5 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.322 0.320 0.192 36.9% 10.0% 26.4% 38.7% OF $2,700 OF $2,900 RF $5,700
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.292 0.318 0.148 29.2% 6.5% 16.4% 44.9% 3B $3,100 3B $3,200 3B $6,300
7 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.388 0.360 0.235 35.3% 13.6% 28.8% 52.9% C $2,500 C $3,500 C $6,800
8 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.305 0.275 0.175 27.9% 5.4% 21.3% 39.6% SS $2,700 SS $2,700 SS $5,200
9 Nick Pivetta RIGHT 0.220 0.054 0.000 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% P $6,100 P $5,900 P $11,600

Elite Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, Michael Saunders

Secondary Plays – Andrew Knapp, Howie Kendrick, Tommy Joseph

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Atlanta

The Braves have one of the highest implied run totals in the slate and I’ve already gone over the benefits of using left-handed hitters in this ballpark. The lefty trio of Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis, and Matt Adams is certainly viable here and you can complete the Braves’ stack with Brandon Phillips and/or Matt Kemp. It’s hard to ignore a Braves’ implied run total that is this high, especially since they are missing Freddie Freeman.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.314 0.292 0.108 26.8% 8.0% 13.9% 42.5% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 CF $7,600
2 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.325 0.306 0.123 28.4% 3.5% 12.3% 47.5% 2B $2,900 2B $3,400 2B $6,800
3 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.336 0.360 0.136 33.9% 11.6% 16.2% 42.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.341 0.353 0.220 36.6% 5.0% 23.3% 40.2% OF $3,900 OF $5,300 LF $10,400
5 Matt Adams LEFT 0.338 0.341 0.227 37.3% 7.8% 26.1% 33.9% 1B $2,800 1B/OF $3,700 1B $7,200
6 Adonis Garcia RIGHT 0.294 0.317 0.133 29.5% 3.1% 16.0% 51.7% 3B $3,200 3B $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
7 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.304 0.312 0.132 29.3% 6.5% 12.1% 42.2% C $2,800 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.265 0.292 0.092 31.0% 10.0% 25.2% 48.7% SS $2,900 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
9 Bartolo Colon RIGHT 0.077 0.063 0.074 9.1% 0.0% 61.4% 53.3% P $6,500 P $5,700 P $11,200

Elite Plays – Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis, Matt Adams

Secondary Plays – Brandon Phillips, Matt Kemp

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

San Francisco at Milwaukee – 7:40 PM ET

San Francisco Milwaukee
sanfranciscomlb Jeff Samardzija milwaukeemlb Junior Guerra
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SF -105 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.344 0.330 29.7% 6.4% 21.5% 40.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.263 0.320 37.4% 10.7% 21.0% 46.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.273 0.283 31.9% 5.2% 23.1% 50.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.281 0.289 30.2% 7.3% 20.0% 44.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeff Samardzija
jeff-samardzija-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $8,900 Salary: $17,200
Salary Rank: 2 of 14 Salary Rank: 3 of 14 Salary Rank: 3 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.13 3.81 20.1% 6.5% 46.5% 31.5% 18.1%
2017 11 2.99 4.63 28.3% 3.7% 40.5% 28.8% 22.7%

Samardzija may have a 4.63 ERA on the season, but positive regression is right around the corner. His BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB% are all at unsustainable levels, which is why we see such a large difference between his SIERA and his ERA. With that in mind, we have to like his prospects tonight against a Braves’ offense that strikes out at a 25% clip against right-handed pitching. Samardzija’s strikeout rate has improved drastically this season and we have to like his upside in a high strikeout matchup against Milwaukee.

Quick Breakdown: Dollar for dollar, I prefer Samardzija over Martinez as my SP1 in this slate.

Junior Guerra
junior-guerra-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 6 of 14 Salary Rank: 6 of 14 Salary Rank: 5 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 4.42 2.81 20.3% 8.7% 45.3% 33.8% 19.9%
2017 3 4.43 1.84 21.7% 10.0% 46.2% 30.0% 20.0%

Guerra has picked up right where he left off in 2016. In his first three starts, he has a 4.43 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. He has an average ground ball rate and generally induces a lot of soft and medium contact. It’s hard to find something bad to say about him. The Giants may not strikeout at a high rate, but they are ranked dead last in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They are worse than the Royals, Padres, and White Sox. At his price point, Guerra deserves a look in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: A lot of my lineups will have a pitcher from this game, even though is will be played in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

With interest in both of the pitchers taking the mound in this game, I’m obviously not too high on either offense. This ballpark is great for both left and right-handed hitters, but the Giants have been dreadful against right-handed pitching. The two hitters that I may use as one-off targets here are Brandon Belt and Buster Posey. Belt owns a .391 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching, while Posey isn’t far behind with a .366 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.335 0.341 0.149 27.5% 7.9% 11.5% 47.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
2 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.320 0.289 0.122 26.3% 4.6% 14.3% 51.5% 3B $3,600 3B/OF $4,500 3B $8,800
3 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.376 0.391 0.214 38.3% 16.8% 22.2% 25.8% 1B $3,500 1B/OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.337 0.366 0.134 33.3% 9.3% 10.9% 49.3% C $3,900 1B/C $4,100 C $8,000
5 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.318 0.333 0.169 35.3% 8.4% 18.2% 43.7% SS $3,000 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
6 Joe Panik LEFT 0.312 0.334 0.159 26.4% 9.4% 7.9% 45.4% 2B $2,600 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
7 Orlando Calixte RIGHT 0.242 0.280 0.000 16.7% 15.4% 38.5% 0.0% OF $2,200 SS $2,600 SS $5,200
8 Austin Slater RIGHT 0.086 0.141 0.000 0.0% 12.5% 25.0% 80.0% OF $2,500 OF $2,600 RF $5,100
9 Jeff Samardzija RIGHT 0.176 0.165 0.088 28.6% 1.6% 41.0% 48.4% P $8,900 P $8,900 P $17,200

Elite Plays – Brandon Belt (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt (Cash), Buster Posey

Stackability – ORANGE

Milwaukee

Jeff Samardzija has a high ERA this season, but that will come down if he continues to pitch the same way. He has a SIERA under 3.00 with a strikeout rate over 28%. The Brewers are still without Ryan Braun and their offense hasn’t been producing at the same level that they were earlier in the season. Eric Thames is the only hitter on my radar in this one. Samardzija has struggled a bit with home runs and Thames has a .301 ISO and a 43% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.315 0.287 0.179 37.7% 9.5% 37.5% 43.7% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.418 0.367 0.301 42.7% 18.7% 21.9% 40.9% 1B $3,100 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
3 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.315 0.293 0.156 31.5% 4.6% 19.3% 48.1% OF $3,100 3B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
4 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.342 0.326 0.290 37.8% 5.3% 32.0% 46.7% 1B $2,800 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.339 0.337 0.183 34.6% 11.0% 32.1% 46.3% OF $3,700 OF $4,500 RF $8,700
6 Jett Bandy RIGHT 0.288 0.290 0.145 29.1% 4.4% 18.5% 31.3% C $2,700 C $3,000 C $6,000
7 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.326 0.301 0.138 35.0% 11.0% 25.9% 61.2% 2B $3,000 2B $3,500 2B $6,900
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.263 0.246 0.126 25.6% 4.7% 21.0% 54.8% SS $2,400 SS $2,900 SS $5,600
9 Junior Guerra RIGHT 0.209 0.192 0.037 21.7% 0.0% 32.4% 50.0% P $8,200 P $7,600 P $15,200

Elite Plays – Eric Thames (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET

Miami Chicago Cubs
miamimlb Dan Straily cubsmlb Eddie Butler
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-118 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.280 0.310 29.5% 12.6% 21.0% 34.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.383 0.401 42.2% 12.7% 16.6% 40.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.320 0.313 35.6% 6.7% 22.3% 31.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.375 0.340 37.3% 6.4% 16.0% 49.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dan Straily
dan-straily-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $9,100 Salary: $17,600
Salary Rank: 4 of 14 Salary Rank: 2 of 14 Salary Rank: 2 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 4.67 3.76 20.5% 9.2% 32.0% 32.2% 14.8%
2017 11 4.11 3.56 25.7% 10.0% 34.8% 35.0% 21.0%

Straily is coming off of a strong start against the Phillies, striking out ten batters in six and two-third innings. He is having a strong season overall with a 25.7% strikeout rate. We typically don’t like targeting pitchers against the Cubs, but the wind is blowing in from left field at 16 MPH at Wrigley. The over/under for the game is set at only 7.5 runs, which is awfully low for these two pitchers and these two offenses. Straily may not be as safe as Carlos Martinez or Jeff Samardzija, but he has a similar ceiling and will be the lowest owned of the three.

Quick Breakdown: Straily carries some appeal in tournaments. The Cubs’ patience at the plate scares me for cash games.

Eddie Butler
eddie-butler-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 10 of 14 Salary Rank: 13 of 14 Salary Rank: 12 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 9 4.53 7.17 16.0% 7.2% 45.8% 38.7% 13.1%
2017 4 5.72 4.42 16.9% 15.7% 45.5% 41.1% 25.0%

Butler could end up being a popular SP2 tonight, but I’m not drinking the Kool-Aid. This isn’t even the real Kool-Aid, this is the knockoff brand that costs six cents a packet and turns your entire mouth the color of the sugar water. Butler has nearly as many walks as strikeouts, he has a 41% hard contact rate, and he has a SIERA of 5.72. I will not be targeting him against the Marlins, even with the wind blowing in from left field. Miami has some decent power in their lineup and are typically one of the hardest teams to strikeout against for right-handed pitchers.

Quick Breakdown: I’m not drinking the Butler Kool-Aid, even with the wind blowing in and this low over/under.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

If the wind was blowing out to center field or even if the wind wasn’t blowing at all, the Marlins would be one of my favorite offenses in the slate. Eddie Butler has not been sharp this season and allows a ton of hard contact. The sample size is small, but he has allowed a .401 xwOBA to lefties and a .340 xwOBA to righties. He also struggles with his command and has a low strikeout rate. The only problem here is the wind blowing in from left field. Luckily, it won’t impact the left-handed hitters as much as the right-handed hitters. Justin Bour may be my favorite one-off target in the slate. The way he is hitting the ball right now, he could hit a home run through a tornado.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.305 0.248 0.076 19.1% 5.9% 15.3% 56.4% 2B $3,300 2B $4,100 2B $8,100
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.337 0.336 0.228 37.2% 9.6% 28.8% 39.9% OF $4,300 OF $5,100 RF $10,000
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.373 0.385 0.193 39.8% 12.2% 19.7% 54.4% OF $3,700 OF $4,500 CF $8,700
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.337 0.332 0.185 36.2% 7.5% 19.7% 47.2% OF $3,900 OF $4,900 LF $9,600
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.364 0.396 0.241 40.4% 12.0% 17.2% 44.6% 1B $3,600 1B $5,000 1B $9,600
6 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.335 0.306 0.113 30.4% 5.4% 16.9% 50.3% C $3,000 C $3,700 C $7,200
7 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.333 0.336 0.145 29.7% 8.2% 20.2% 37.4% 3B $2,600 3B $2,900 3B $5,700
8 JT Riddle LEFT 0.305 0.321 0.219 45.5% 4.2% 19.4% 41.5% SS $2,900 SS $2,600 SS $5,200
9 Dan Straily RIGHT 0.043 0.070 0.000 13.8% 1.4% 57.7% 83.3% P $8,500 P $9,100 P $17,600

Elite Plays – Justin Bour

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Derek Dietrich

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are small favorites tonight, but their matchup against Dan Straily is less than ideal. Not only is the wind blowing in from left field, but Straily has a 26% strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters in check. This may come as a surprise, but the Cubs are actually ranked 25th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Ben Zobrist are viable one-off targets, but we aren’t getting any sort of discount on them.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.326 0.314 0.200 31.3% 12.1% 31.0% 43.8% 2B $2,900 2B $3,500 IF/OF $6,900
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.377 0.351 0.236 37.0% 10.0% 22.5% 30.3% 3B $4,100 3B $4,500 IF/OF $8,800
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.384 0.376 0.252 36.5% 12.2% 15.8% 36.6% 1B $4,300 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.355 0.370 0.179 33.5% 15.7% 11.7% 46.1% OF $3,400 2B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
5 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.301 0.317 0.117 27.4% 8.5% 13.8% 46.6% OF $3,200 OF $3,200 RF $6,300
6 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.335 0.307 0.195 32.1% 9.2% 27.7% 54.7% C $2,800 C $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.303 0.264 0.163 28.3% 1.4% 25.7% 46.3% 2B $3,000 2B/SS $3,900 2B $7,800
8 Eddie Butler RIGHT 0.092 0.126 0.000 12.5% 4.5% 22.7% 100.0% P $7,000 P $5,400 P $10,800
9 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.281 0.348 0.201 36.4% 11.1% 29.2% 44.9% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Houston at Kansas City – 8:15 PM ET

Houston Kansas City
houstonmlb Mike Fiers kansascitymlb Ian Kennedy
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-122 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.318 0.312 31.6% 6.4% 18.6% 46.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.305 0.326 36.5% 9.1% 20.8% 31.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.384 0.362 36.8% 6.5% 19.0% 39.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.330 37.5% 8.6% 23.8% 37.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Fiers
michael-fiers-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 8 of 14 Salary Rank: 7 of 14 Salary Rank: 7 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.26 4.48 18.5% 5.8% 42.2% 35.3% 17.2%
2017 10 4.46 4.96 19.7% 8.6% 46.3% 31.1% 19.5%

Fiers is having one of the strangest seasons I have seen so far. He has been fairly lucky in terms of his BABIP (.277) and his LOB% (88%), but he has allowed a 30% HR/FB rate. In other words, for every ten fly balls that he has allowed, three of them have gone for home runs. The league average is close to 10%. We can look at this in two ways. We can avoid him because he is capable of the blowup start, or we can expect some regression moving forward. This seems like a perfect matchup for Fiers. We have a pitcher whose only real problem has been allowing too many home runs and he gets to face a weak Royals’ offense in one of the biggest ballparks in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: If there was ever a time to play Fiers, this would be it. The ballpark and opponent couldn’t get much better.

Ian Kennedy
ian-kennedy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 9 of 14 Salary Rank: 12 of 14 Salary Rank: 12 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.27 3.68 22.5% 8.1% 33.2% 36.4% 18.6%
2017 9 4.90 5.12 20.9% 12.0% 38.6% 39.4% 15.0%

Kennedy’s numbers are down across the board this season. He isn’t striking as many batters out, his walk rate is up, his hard contact rate is up, and he is still struggling with the long ball. I know that he’s a much better option at home in this ballpark, but I don’t target right-handed pitchers against the Astros. On the season, they are ranked first in both team wOBA and team strikeout rate, which is pretty incredible.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Kennedy in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

It will be interesting to see what the Astros’ ownership will look like tonight. If this game was being played in Houston, they would probably be the highest owned stack in the slate. However, the fact that the game is being played in Kauffman Stadium should help. This is obviously a tough ballpark to hit home runs in, but that’s never stopped Ian Kennedy in the past. The way we should look at it is that the Astros have the third highest implied total in the slate, despite playing in a bad ballpark. The one through five batters are viable in all formats and an Astros’ stack is firmly in play.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.336 0.334 0.176 31.7% 10.6% 24.7% 49.2% OF $4,300 OF $5,700 RF $11,200
2 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.359 0.353 0.173 30.8% 9.4% 11.2% 37.1% OF $3,900 OF $4,400 RF $8,400
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.394 0.371 0.192 31.6% 7.5% 10.2% 44.1% 2B $4,300 2B $5,800 2B $11,400
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.370 0.367 0.203 37.4% 10.3% 21.5% 48.9% SS $4,300 SS $5,500 SS $10,800
5 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.340 0.312 0.207 32.4% 6.0% 17.6% 46.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,600 RF $9,000
6 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.334 0.303 0.184 34.3% 6.0% 20.5% 46.5% 1B $4,300 3B/OF $4,800 1B $9,300
7 Brian McCann LEFT 0.327 0.349 0.166 36.4% 11.3% 18.4% 35.4% C $2,900 C $3,600 C $7,200
8 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.313 0.308 0.178 31.6% 6.6% 21.8% 36.0% 3B $3,200 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
9 Norichika Aoki LEFT 0.331 0.281 0.116 20.0% 7.1% 9.7% 57.7% OF $2,600 OF $2,900 LF $5,600

Elite Plays – George Springer, Josh Reddick, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – Carlos Beltran, Marwin Gonzalez, Brian McCann

Stackability – GREEN

Kansas City

The Royals have expectedly struggled at the plate this season. They are one of the worst offenses in baseball. It’s so bad that they have a batter with a .260 wOBA leading off, although they have somehow won more games with Alcides Escobar batting lead off. Their matchup against Mike Fiers isn’t terrible, but his biggest weakness has been giving up too many home runs. The Royals don’t have a lot of power in their lineup and they are playing in a bad ballpark for home runs. Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, and Jorge Bonifacio are viable one-off targets, but I actually prefer the Fiers side of this matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.260 0.251 0.077 21.9% 3.4% 15.9% 46.3% SS $2,500 SS $2,300 SS $4,500
2 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.354 0.363 0.270 36.6% 6.5% 14.6% 36.1% 3B $3,100 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.315 0.304 0.096 28.4% 7.3% 20.6% 48.4% OF $3,300 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.351 0.355 0.168 34.7% 9.6% 18.4% 57.0% 1B $3,500 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.317 0.308 0.197 37.1% 3.4% 21.0% 33.8% C $3,500 C $2,900 C $5,700
6 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.404 0.385 0.265 37.5% 7.7% 22.0% 39.1% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
7 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.321 0.338 0.277 39.7% 9.7% 31.3% 26.3% 1B $2,900 OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
8 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.297 0.292 0.124 31.7% 5.1% 19.3% 43.2% 2B $3,700 2B $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
9 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.284 0.318 0.133 35.4% 10.1% 26.4% 41.2% OF $2,800 OF $2,400 LF $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, Jorge Bonifacio

Stackability – ORANGE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious